Steve Duemig Thursday
20 Dime - Saints
The NFL lines have been up for months. Every sharp has taken a look and already have bet who they liked and will then sit back to see if the public goes Favre crazy and does something stupid. The line has not moved much. It opened at exactly the same line as the NFL Championship game, the Saints -4.5. Moved up a little to -5 which is where it is at posting as I sit here in Vegas looking eight at it.
So what has changed, if anything? Well the qb's are the same but we know who the better one was then and is now. Drew Brees. He doesn't turn the ball over and The Vikings had 5 in the last game. Plus you had the drama of Favre, who missed all of camp and then had to have his ankle lubricated to help out. Personally I think that the Vikings have made a huge mistake to beg the diva to come back this season. I don't think things will end well for him. Call it "messing with karma"
Favre will also be without his favorite wide receiver Sydney Rice, who will miss the first half of the season due to injury.
New Orleans on the other hand, is firing on all cylinders in the preseason. The toughest thing to do into defend and usually the players are saying all the right things but doing it is different. I really like the way both Sean Payton and Brees have handled the entire championship off season. Every detail has been covered right down to Payton unfurling the team's championship banner last night so his team would not become emotional if they saw it at the start of the game. That kind of stuff is brilliant!
Brees is not missing anything from an offensive standpoint. Defensively coordinator Williams will try to do the same as last year. Hit Favre whenever they have a chance and punish him and force him into bad decisions.
To me it is impossible for Favre to duplicate his miracle season that he had last year. He has even gone so far as to warn everybody of exactly that.
The coaching matchup also shows a huge edge to Payton over Childress. Hell it was even reported during the off season that one of e reason that Favre didn't want to return was because his Coach was "clueless " when it came to offense. I tend to agree.
Normally I would look to play against the the champ in the first couple of weeks, but not in this case. I really think that the Saints and the emotion that there fans will have tomorrow will completely envelop the Vikings.
5 Dime - Mississippi State
A surprising 78% of bets have come in on Auburn yet the line has moved from -2.5 to -1.5. That tells us two things that mean the same. No sharp support early to push it to -3 and we see the line go toward the home dog on a Thursday night. Coach Dan Mullen of the Bulldogs knows a little about the freaky QB of the Tigers Cam Newton! He had him at Florida before he transferred out and Mullen left to go to Miss. St. And the word is that once Mullen did go to Starkville, Newton chose to go elsewhere after he considered Miss. St. That also reels us something.
Auburn will play a lot of freshmen on defense and the rotating qb crew for Miss St should be able to move the ball up the field against them. Playing on the road for a young defensive group is always hazardous, especially for the first time in the SEC. Newton will get his as well, but in a Thursday night game, tradition has always leaned to the home dog and in the south we keep with tradition in what is a coin flip game that should have a lot of points. The over has been bet up 4 points so that has lost most if not all it's value.
20 Dime - Saints
The NFL lines have been up for months. Every sharp has taken a look and already have bet who they liked and will then sit back to see if the public goes Favre crazy and does something stupid. The line has not moved much. It opened at exactly the same line as the NFL Championship game, the Saints -4.5. Moved up a little to -5 which is where it is at posting as I sit here in Vegas looking eight at it.
So what has changed, if anything? Well the qb's are the same but we know who the better one was then and is now. Drew Brees. He doesn't turn the ball over and The Vikings had 5 in the last game. Plus you had the drama of Favre, who missed all of camp and then had to have his ankle lubricated to help out. Personally I think that the Vikings have made a huge mistake to beg the diva to come back this season. I don't think things will end well for him. Call it "messing with karma"
Favre will also be without his favorite wide receiver Sydney Rice, who will miss the first half of the season due to injury.
New Orleans on the other hand, is firing on all cylinders in the preseason. The toughest thing to do into defend and usually the players are saying all the right things but doing it is different. I really like the way both Sean Payton and Brees have handled the entire championship off season. Every detail has been covered right down to Payton unfurling the team's championship banner last night so his team would not become emotional if they saw it at the start of the game. That kind of stuff is brilliant!
Brees is not missing anything from an offensive standpoint. Defensively coordinator Williams will try to do the same as last year. Hit Favre whenever they have a chance and punish him and force him into bad decisions.
To me it is impossible for Favre to duplicate his miracle season that he had last year. He has even gone so far as to warn everybody of exactly that.
The coaching matchup also shows a huge edge to Payton over Childress. Hell it was even reported during the off season that one of e reason that Favre didn't want to return was because his Coach was "clueless " when it came to offense. I tend to agree.
Normally I would look to play against the the champ in the first couple of weeks, but not in this case. I really think that the Saints and the emotion that there fans will have tomorrow will completely envelop the Vikings.
5 Dime - Mississippi State
A surprising 78% of bets have come in on Auburn yet the line has moved from -2.5 to -1.5. That tells us two things that mean the same. No sharp support early to push it to -3 and we see the line go toward the home dog on a Thursday night. Coach Dan Mullen of the Bulldogs knows a little about the freaky QB of the Tigers Cam Newton! He had him at Florida before he transferred out and Mullen left to go to Miss. St. And the word is that once Mullen did go to Starkville, Newton chose to go elsewhere after he considered Miss. St. That also reels us something.
Auburn will play a lot of freshmen on defense and the rotating qb crew for Miss St should be able to move the ball up the field against them. Playing on the road for a young defensive group is always hazardous, especially for the first time in the SEC. Newton will get his as well, but in a Thursday night game, tradition has always leaned to the home dog and in the south we keep with tradition in what is a coin flip game that should have a lot of points. The over has been bet up 4 points so that has lost most if not all it's value.
WUNDERDOG5 unit(s) TOTAL: Under 48.5 (-110)
The NFL gets underway with a heavyweight matchup between the Vikings and the Super Bowl champion Saints in a rematch of last year's NFC Title game. In that game, Minnesota out-gained the Saints 475-257 but lost thanks to three fumbles and two interceptions. These are two high-octane offenses, and the public is already weighing in on the OVER at nearly 70%. I'm in the other camp on this one. While these teams would very likely put up 50+ points in mid-season, this is week one. There is often offensive rust to shake off early in the season, making lofty totals difficult to reach. Since 1983 there have been 33 week one games with a total set at 47 or higher and the UNDER has come through in 24 of those (73%)! The NFL today is based on timing, with wide-open passing attacks. It often takes some time for these high-powered offenses to find that timing. It stands to reason that week one high totals have had a difficult time going OVER. The Saints have sure been a product of that. Over the last 11 years their week one totals have failed to top the number eight times (73%). The Vikings will be led by a 41-year-old quarterback with an ankle issue. Favre took very few snaps in the preseason and he will be without his leading receiver from a year ago. I would expect to see a lot of Adrian Peterson here as the Saints harassed Favre pretty good in the NFC Championship game. I like this one to stay UNDER the posted total.
The NFL gets underway with a heavyweight matchup between the Vikings and the Super Bowl champion Saints in a rematch of last year's NFC Title game. In that game, Minnesota out-gained the Saints 475-257 but lost thanks to three fumbles and two interceptions. These are two high-octane offenses, and the public is already weighing in on the OVER at nearly 70%. I'm in the other camp on this one. While these teams would very likely put up 50+ points in mid-season, this is week one. There is often offensive rust to shake off early in the season, making lofty totals difficult to reach. Since 1983 there have been 33 week one games with a total set at 47 or higher and the UNDER has come through in 24 of those (73%)! The NFL today is based on timing, with wide-open passing attacks. It often takes some time for these high-powered offenses to find that timing. It stands to reason that week one high totals have had a difficult time going OVER. The Saints have sure been a product of that. Over the last 11 years their week one totals have failed to top the number eight times (73%). The Vikings will be led by a 41-year-old quarterback with an ankle issue. Favre took very few snaps in the preseason and he will be without his leading receiver from a year ago. I would expect to see a lot of Adrian Peterson here as the Saints harassed Favre pretty good in the NFC Championship game. I like this one to stay UNDER the posted total.
20 Dime - Saints
The NFL lines have been up for months. Every sharp has taken a look and already have bet who they liked and will then sit back to see if the public goes Favre crazy and does something stupid. The line has not moved much. It opened at exactly the same line as the NFL Championship game, the Saints -4.5. Moved up a little to -5 which is where it is at posting as I sit here in Vegas looking eight at it.
So what has changed, if anything? Well the qb's are the same but we know who the better one was then and is now. Drew Brees. He doesn't turn the ball over and The Vikings had 5 in the last game. Plus you had the drama of Favre, who missed all of camp and then had to have his ankle lubricated to help out. Personally I think that the Vikings have made a huge mistake to beg the diva to come back this season. I don't think things will end well for him. Call it "messing with karma"
Favre will also be without his favorite wide receiver Sydney Rice, who will miss the first half of the season due to injury.
New Orleans on the other hand, is firing on all cylinders in the preseason. The toughest thing to do into defend and usually the players are saying all the right things but doing it is different. I really like the way both Sean Payton and Brees have handled the entire championship off season. Every detail has been covered right down to Payton unfurling the team's championship banner last night so his team would not become emotional if they saw it at the start of the game. That kind of stuff is brilliant!
Brees is not missing anything from an offensive standpoint. Defensively coordinator Williams will try to do the same as last year. Hit Favre whenever they have a chance and punish him and force him into bad decisions.
To me it is impossible for Favre to duplicate his miracle season that he had last year. He has even gone so far as to warn everybody of exactly that.
The coaching matchup also shows a huge edge to Payton over Childress. Hell it was even reported during the off season that one of e reason that Favre didn't want to return was because his Coach was "clueless " when it came to offense. I tend to agree.
Normally I would look to play against the the champ in the first couple of weeks, but not in this case. I really think that the Saints and the emotion that there fans will have tomorrow will completely envelop the Vikings.
5 Dime - Mississippi State
A surprising 78% of bets have come in on Auburn yet the line has moved from -2.5 to -1.5. That tells us two things that mean the same. No sharp support early to push it to -3 and we see the line go toward the home dog on a Thursday night. Coach Dan Mullen of the Bulldogs knows a little about the freaky QB of the Tigers Cam Newton! He had him at Florida before he transferred out and Mullen left to go to Miss. St. And the word is that once Mullen did go to Starkville, Newton chose to go elsewhere after he considered Miss. St. That also reels us something.
Auburn will play a lot of freshmen on defense and the rotating qb crew for Miss St should be able to move the ball up the field against them. Playing on the road for a young defensive group is always hazardous, especially for the first time in the SEC. Newton will get his as well, but in a Thursday night game, tradition has always leaned to the home dog and in the south we keep with tradition in what is a coin flip game that should have a lot of points. The over has been bet up 4 points so that has lost most if not all it's value.
The NFL lines have been up for months. Every sharp has taken a look and already have bet who they liked and will then sit back to see if the public goes Favre crazy and does something stupid. The line has not moved much. It opened at exactly the same line as the NFL Championship game, the Saints -4.5. Moved up a little to -5 which is where it is at posting as I sit here in Vegas looking eight at it.
So what has changed, if anything? Well the qb's are the same but we know who the better one was then and is now. Drew Brees. He doesn't turn the ball over and The Vikings had 5 in the last game. Plus you had the drama of Favre, who missed all of camp and then had to have his ankle lubricated to help out. Personally I think that the Vikings have made a huge mistake to beg the diva to come back this season. I don't think things will end well for him. Call it "messing with karma"
Favre will also be without his favorite wide receiver Sydney Rice, who will miss the first half of the season due to injury.
New Orleans on the other hand, is firing on all cylinders in the preseason. The toughest thing to do into defend and usually the players are saying all the right things but doing it is different. I really like the way both Sean Payton and Brees have handled the entire championship off season. Every detail has been covered right down to Payton unfurling the team's championship banner last night so his team would not become emotional if they saw it at the start of the game. That kind of stuff is brilliant!
Brees is not missing anything from an offensive standpoint. Defensively coordinator Williams will try to do the same as last year. Hit Favre whenever they have a chance and punish him and force him into bad decisions.
To me it is impossible for Favre to duplicate his miracle season that he had last year. He has even gone so far as to warn everybody of exactly that.
The coaching matchup also shows a huge edge to Payton over Childress. Hell it was even reported during the off season that one of e reason that Favre didn't want to return was because his Coach was "clueless " when it came to offense. I tend to agree.
Normally I would look to play against the the champ in the first couple of weeks, but not in this case. I really think that the Saints and the emotion that there fans will have tomorrow will completely envelop the Vikings.
5 Dime - Mississippi State
A surprising 78% of bets have come in on Auburn yet the line has moved from -2.5 to -1.5. That tells us two things that mean the same. No sharp support early to push it to -3 and we see the line go toward the home dog on a Thursday night. Coach Dan Mullen of the Bulldogs knows a little about the freaky QB of the Tigers Cam Newton! He had him at Florida before he transferred out and Mullen left to go to Miss. St. And the word is that once Mullen did go to Starkville, Newton chose to go elsewhere after he considered Miss. St. That also reels us something.
Auburn will play a lot of freshmen on defense and the rotating qb crew for Miss St should be able to move the ball up the field against them. Playing on the road for a young defensive group is always hazardous, especially for the first time in the SEC. Newton will get his as well, but in a Thursday night game, tradition has always leaned to the home dog and in the south we keep with tradition in what is a coin flip game that should have a lot of points. The over has been bet up 4 points so that has lost most if not all it's value.
BOB BALFE
Atlanta Braves -101
The Braves are coming off a big offensive night yesterday in Pittsburgh and are happy to be home, where they are 49-19 this season. The Cardinals are not a great road team and it will be tough for them to perform tonight against a tough Jair Jurrjens. The Braves are trying to keep pace with the Phillies in the NL East and will need to win their home games. Take Atlanta.
Atlanta Braves -101
The Braves are coming off a big offensive night yesterday in Pittsburgh and are happy to be home, where they are 49-19 this season. The Cardinals are not a great road team and it will be tough for them to perform tonight against a tough Jair Jurrjens. The Braves are trying to keep pace with the Phillies in the NL East and will need to win their home games. Take Atlanta.
THE DUKE SPORTS
Atlanta (+100) for 2 Units
The Cardinals and Wainwright have done well vs Atlanta; however, St. Louis is now struggling to manufacture runs and Wainwright is struggling to find his earlier season form. St. Louis has been held to 2 runs or less in 7 of their last 10 games. And one of the few hot bats the Cardinals have Pujols (.414 BA vs the Braves) has not had success vs Jurrjens at 2 for 10. Furthermore, the Cardinals are just 4-11 off a loss, 1-8 on the road vs a team with a home winning % above .600, and 1-8 on the road with Wainwright vs a team with a winning record. On the other hand, the Braves are on a 6-1 with Jair Jurrjens on the hill and they're smoking at home at 39-13. With a Braves' bullpen that remains solid (2.72 ERA at home), we'll jump on Atlanta here.
Atlanta (+100) for 2 Units
The Cardinals and Wainwright have done well vs Atlanta; however, St. Louis is now struggling to manufacture runs and Wainwright is struggling to find his earlier season form. St. Louis has been held to 2 runs or less in 7 of their last 10 games. And one of the few hot bats the Cardinals have Pujols (.414 BA vs the Braves) has not had success vs Jurrjens at 2 for 10. Furthermore, the Cardinals are just 4-11 off a loss, 1-8 on the road vs a team with a home winning % above .600, and 1-8 on the road with Wainwright vs a team with a winning record. On the other hand, the Braves are on a 6-1 with Jair Jurrjens on the hill and they're smoking at home at 39-13. With a Braves' bullpen that remains solid (2.72 ERA at home), we'll jump on Atlanta here.
