Sportsbook Breakers
4-STAR Usc (-20.5) over HAWAII- Talk about a team with something to prove. USC
has listened as their program has been run through the coals with nothing they
can do about it. Now it's an Us vs. Them mentality and USC can finally take out
the frustration on the field. The Trojans know if they can compete for a
pseudo-National Championship there can't be a single slipup along the road and
that starts with the need for a blowout win tonight.
USC has not been a team to look ahead in game one of the year. They have covered
in four of the past five seasons in week one, with wins by 46 (at Hawaii), 36,
28, 45 and 53. The only ATS loss was that 28 point win in 2007, which did not
cover the lofty line. That is despite playing Ohio St. in week two the past two
seasons. With Virginia the week two opponent this year, there's no chance USC
will be looking ahead.
Speaking of that 2005 opener, that's the last time USC faced Hawaii, a 63-17
Trojan victory at Hawaii. This is a good situation for big programs as major
Conference teams (big six) are 10-0 ATS (8.8 ppg.) and 11-0 SU (37.5 ppg.) since
2003 in the season opener versus teams that they beat by 45+ in their last
meeting, if that meeting did not occur last season. (game number=1 and
season>=2003 and P:margin>=45 and (conference='ACC' or conference='B10' or
conference='B12' or conference='P10' or conference='BE' or conference='SEC') and
Prest>370).
This is also a good spot for USC, as their defensive work could have been even
better in that game. USC is 10-0 ATS (14.9 ppg) since 2003 when facing a team
they allowed between 14 and 18 points to last meeting, as at least a five point
favorite (14<=Points<=18 and season>=2003 and team= 'USC' and P:line<=-5).
They allow an average of just 11.2 points in these instances. Hawaii returns 13
starters but most problematic has just one returning to the offensive line. USC
has top 10 units in the country on the defensive line and linebacking corps, and
they will have a field day on Hawaii's backfield.
You might think Hawaii is the kind of scrappy team which gets up for these major
conference games and keep them close but since 2003 they are just 2-7 ATS since
2003 as a dog of at least nine points against non-conference teams.
If Lane Kiffin can do anything as a coach it's motivate his players. Hawaii has
had three chances against USC in the past dozen years and has gone 0-3 ATS. Look
for the Trojans to strike early and often in this one and make it four straight.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: USC 45, HAWAII 14
6 **MEMBERS** OPENING NIGHT PICKS)
