Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks Jul 3 2008 3:40PM
PICK: under
Your pick will be graded at: 8 betED
EXPERT: The Prez
TITLE: 6* BIG GAME TRIPLE PLAY PAC 2 TOTALS + SIDE
REASON FOR PICK:
Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers: Manny Parra vs. Brandon Webb
Umpire: Adrian Johnson
Conditions: Hot -- the roof will be closed for this afternoon tilt in the desert
Manny Parra (8-2, 3.95) has won six consecutive outings, posting a 2.41 ERA, and is unbeaten in 10 starts since losing at Houston on May 3. The rookie left-hander has given up three runs in his last 19 innings. He held the Diamondbacks to one run and four hits in seven innings on June 4, tying a career high with eight strikeouts in a 10-1 win.
Parra, the junior college player of the year by Baseball America in 2002 and the Milwaukee Brewers minor-league pitcher of the year last season included being voted the second best prospect in the organization, is finally figuring things out. The southpaw threw seven innings and allowed two hits and no runs while striking out six against the Twins, to end their 10-game winning streak. He's got dominating stuff. He's one of those pitchers that when he comes to the ballpark, he's got a chance to go nine innings.
The pre-season Parra hype has died down, the Brewers have their No. 2 starter, and he has the confidence when he takes the mound to win. Since sitting with a 5.79 ERA after a May 9 start, Parra has a 2.80 ERA in his last nine outings. The bad? The rookie has just a 73 strikeouts to 49 bases on balls. A general rule: left-handers with good stuff are good investments. Back Parra and let his talent work around the mediocre peripherals.
Brandon Webb (12-4, 3.21 ERA) is 3-4 with a 4.07 ERA in eight games since opening the season 9-0. The right-handed sinkerballer equaled a season high with eight strikeouts versus Florida on Saturday, allowing two runs in six innings of a 6-2 victory. The right-hander is facing Milwaukee for the first time this season. Webb is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA in his last four starts versus the Brewers, and has never lost in four outings against them in Arizona.
The talk around the handicapping water cooler is that Webb isn't the same pitcher that won the Cy Young in 2006 -- I have confidence in Webb and Team Prez sources report that the so-called undisclosed injury-whispers are bogus. Webb has a 7.16 ERA in this last three starts to go with a 15 strikeouts to nine strikeouts 16.1 innings. These were acquired during a recent dead-arm slump. The only proof that Webb might be laboring or suffering a minor injury that could have changed his approach or altered his delivery was the ball he took off the hip by a Carlos Delgado line drive three starts ago. This very well could be the reason for a couple of poor starts, but his last outing against Florida offered no evidence he is hurting.
Is it possible that Webb is holding back from telling the team about a possible hip injury? No - not according to our sources. The coaches know him well enough that if he was hurting, it would affect his mechanics — the staff would have noticed.
Webb returns home, where he's more than comfortable pitching to the elements of a closed Chase Field roof. In seven home starts Webb is 6-1, the team is 6-1 in those starts, and his ERA is a tidy 3.88.
Webb versus Milwaukee hitters:
Bill Hall is 1-for-7
J.J. Hardy is 4-for-11; all singles
Corey Hart has never hit against Webb and he isn't likely to start today
Jason Kendall is 2-or-10
Rickie Weeks is 1-for-11
Russell Branyan is 5-for-9 with three extra base hits.
Ryan J. Braun is 0-for-3
Mike Cameron is 8-for-24 (.234) with a home run at Milwaukee
Craig Counsell is 0-for-4
Prince Fielder is 6-for-10
It is a mixed bag when looking at the numbers the Brewers have accumulated against Webb, but holding down the top and the middle of the order has proved to be something Webb can do. His 4-0 record at home speaks volumes. Any success that Milwaukee has had against Webb has come on the road.
Weeks can't figure out Webb, never has. Fielder does have six hits against Webb in 10 at-bats, but only one of those did any damage; a home run in Milwaukee. And Russell Branyan, who has done his best Babe Ruth imitation the last month-plus, is the streakiest hitter on this Brewers team save Bill Hall who can't hit right-handed pitching.
Parra versus Arizona hitters:
The Diamondbacks, who are a better hitting team against left-handed starters are 5-for-20 combined against Parra - but all five hits are singles.
Adrian Johnson is a solid balls and strikes umpire. He is a huge asset for Webb and Parra today. Both pitchers need some help from the home plate umpire to be dominating. Webb needs the low strike and Parra would like to have the black on the outside of the plate to right-handed hitters. Johnson supplies both. In Johnsons last four appearances behind home plate he has taken the following pitchers UNDER the total. No surprise that D. Lowe and John Lackey went under the seven, but Greg Smith and Kyle Kendrick combined for four runs; Greg Maddux and E. Bonine stayed UNDER; the Wild Thing from Colorado U. Jimenez and the Braves Jair Jurrjens stayed UNDER too. The UNDER is 20-8 in Johnsons last 28 games behind home plate.
The UNDER is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter; is 9-3 in Brewers last 12 games as an underdog.
The UNDER is 41-19-3 in Webbs last 63 starts vs. a team with a winning record and is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams.
The Diamondbacks are missing some key players to injury, and both pitchers have the ability (especially with Johnson behind the plate) to go nine innings. When two pitchers meet with the talent to throw a complete game, with a pitcher-friendly umpire, backing a reasonable UNDER is always favorable. The Vegas number of 8 (-105) is more than reasonable for these two pitchers and the matchups this afternoon in Arizona.
5 UNIT Play on UNDER in Arizona
RECOMMENDED SPORTSBOOKS: BoDog Sportsbook 5Dimes
Milwaukee Brewers
Arizona Diamondbacks OFF
OFF
8
-165 -110
8
-165 -115
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees Jul 3 2008 7:05PM
PICK: under
Your pick will be graded at: 9 Sportsbook
EXPERT: The Prez
TITLE: 6* BIG GAME TRIPLE PLAY PAC 2 TOTALS + SIDE
REASON FOR PICK:
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
Pitchers: Jon Lester vs. Andy Pettitte
Umpire: Unannounced
Conditions: 85 degrees at first pitch with winds blowing out to left field.
Boston is 3-2 against New York this season. But that is all due to the hitting of their left fielder, Manny Ramirez. ManRam (10-for-19 with three homers and eight RBIs against the Yankees in 2008) desperately needs to break out of his current funk if Boston is to be competitive on the road. Manny has four straight multihit games against the Yanks but was hitless in 11 at-bats in the Tampa Bay series.
Andy Pettitte (9-5, 3.98 ERA) is 4-0 with a 1.00 ERA in his last four outings. The southpaw hasn't lost since May 23 and is aiming for his seventh straight win without a loss. The veteran left-hander won Saturday by allowing two runs in six innings in a 3-2 win over the New York Mets. He was outstanding in the effort and his peripherals this year are as good, or better, than in some of the lefty's most successful campaigns.
He is 6-0 in his last 8 starts dating back to May 23. During those 7 starts, Pettitte has a 3.61 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and a 6.8 K rate. One of those games was a very unlucky 10 hit-10 earned run outing against the Royals and he's thrown eight quality starts in his last 10 appearances.
Pettitte hasn't pitched against the Red Sox this season. He is better right now than he was last year at this time when he recorded a 2-1 record with a 5.40 ERA in six starts against Boston.
Jon Lester (6-3, 3.48) is 3-0 with a 3.35 ERA in his last six starts. Lester's worst outing of that stretch, though, came Saturday at Houston as he was tagged for a season-high six runs over five innings in an 11-10 loss. However, he pitched much better than his line indicates.
The Yankees aren't as productive against left-handed starters despite their 14-13 overall versus southpaws.
The Red Sox are playing shorthanded and their best hitter is slumping.
The UNDER is 9-3-1 in Lesters last 13 starts as an underdog. The UNDER is 11-2 in Pettittes last 13 starts as a home favorite.
Tonight's game in New York won't resemble last night’s slugfest. Expect a good old fashion pitching dual between two good left-handers. Both teams are desperately trying to keep pace with the red hot Tampa Bay Rays. While the wind is blowing towards death valley (the left field power alley in Ruth's house) all balls hit to right field tonight will die in flight.
6 UNIT Play on UNDER in New York
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Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees OFF
OFF
9
-139 -110
9
-142 -110
New York Mets at St Louis Cardinals Jul 3 2008 8:15PM
PICK: St Louis Cardinals
Your pick will be graded at: -106 WSEX
EXPERT: The Prez
TITLE: 6* BIG GAME TRIPLE PLAY PAC 2 TOTALS + SIDE
REASON FOR PICK:
New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals
Pitchers: Mike Pelfrey vs. Mitchell Boggs
Umpire: Paul Nauert
Conditions: Possible thundershowers; 80 degrees at first pitch with light winds blowing toward left field
Mitchell Boggs (3-0, 4.37 ERA) won for the third time in four starts Saturday allowing one run and four hits with a season-high six strikeouts in six innings of a 5-1 win at Kansas City. It was arguably the best we have seen the rookie throw the ball. He looked much more confident in his approach and he had better command of his entire arsenal.
The Cardinals improved to 4-0 in Boggs' starts with that win over KC. He has won games in hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati and Boston's Fenway Park and on Saturday toppled a KC team that had won 11 of its past 12 games. A pitcher who had struck out only four and induced nine swinging misses in his first three starts woke up with six strikeouts in Saturday night's first four innings against the Royals. Boggs throws a hard sinker with uncommon movement. The rookie is a very confident pitcher right now.
Mike Pelfrey (5-6, 4.47 ERA) has won his last three starts - all on the road – but his ERA is close to six runs a game and he's been erratic in the process. The right-hander has walked 11 batters in his last 16.2 innings.
The Mets are playing like losers. They sport little activity that resembles a competitive spirit. They have been horrendous in the field and their bullpen is atrocious.
The Mets are hitting a paltry .254 against right-handers while the Cardinals are at their best in these situations hitting .276 and scoring nearly five runs per game.
Paul Nauert might have pitcher friendly numbers (2.32 strikeout to walk ratio with eight overs to 10 unders), but he is not considered a pitcher-friendly umpire. His K-zone fits into the league average and he does his best to accommodate QuesTec specifications. Last year he had a reasonable 2.08 K rate with 19 overs to 12 unders, but Pelfrey wont' be helped by Nauert tonight, and he will struggle much like he did in his last game against the Yanks.
The home team is 4-0 in Nauerts last 4 Thursday games behind home plate vs. St. Louis.
The Cardinals are 10-2 in their last 12 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game; 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter; 4-1 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record; 4-1 in their last 5 games on grass and are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.
The Mets are 1-4 in Pelfreys last 5 starts vs. National League Central and 1-6 in Pelfreys last 7 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
The Cardinals are 5-2 in their last 7 games with Nauert behind home plate.
5 UNIT Play on St. Louis
RECOMMENDED SPORTSBOOKS: BoDog Sportsbook 5Dimes
New York Mets
St Louis Cardinals OFF
OFF
9.5
-108 -120
Justin Duchscherer has been phenomenal for the A's this season. Duchscherer has allowed only four homeruns in his 13 starts. He owns a 1.91 ERA on the season, including 1.64 at night and 1.45 last month 
