MATT RIVERS
Take the Giants at home.
As I said yesterday I am the last person to back this poor Giants squad but I do have to give them a little credit as they have not been as horrific as I have thought for the bulk of the season. Bruce Bochy has probably gotten the most out of this not very talented squad but they have been overall better than both the Rockies and Padres and at home plus some money here, why not!??!?
The Cubbies are obviously the clear better and more well balanced overall team but without Soriano and Ramirez they are hampered a ton as Derrek Lee does not have his protection in the lineup and truly should not score a run today against a guy in Tim Lincecum who has absolutely exploded from young phenom with potential status to the probably Cy Young winner at the halfway point.
Lincecum is an absolute budding superstar right now and without Lee's mates healthy the Cubbies are not the same team and they have really not even been that good away from Wrigley to begin with.
I do not mind Sean Gallagher as the righty is alright. But on the road here should not come close to keeping pace with Lincecum. I can see Gallagher hurling six innings and allowing three runs but that just will not cut it in this spot.
It's a fairly hefty price to lay with a bad team but the Giants have not been atrocious and should be able to take care of their ace and provide him with another win today against a depleted Chicago squad.
Take the Giants at home.
As I said yesterday I am the last person to back this poor Giants squad but I do have to give them a little credit as they have not been as horrific as I have thought for the bulk of the season. Bruce Bochy has probably gotten the most out of this not very talented squad but they have been overall better than both the Rockies and Padres and at home plus some money here, why not!??!?
The Cubbies are obviously the clear better and more well balanced overall team but without Soriano and Ramirez they are hampered a ton as Derrek Lee does not have his protection in the lineup and truly should not score a run today against a guy in Tim Lincecum who has absolutely exploded from young phenom with potential status to the probably Cy Young winner at the halfway point.
Lincecum is an absolute budding superstar right now and without Lee's mates healthy the Cubbies are not the same team and they have really not even been that good away from Wrigley to begin with.
I do not mind Sean Gallagher as the righty is alright. But on the road here should not come close to keeping pace with Lincecum. I can see Gallagher hurling six innings and allowing three runs but that just will not cut it in this spot.
It's a fairly hefty price to lay with a bad team but the Giants have not been atrocious and should be able to take care of their ace and provide him with another win today against a depleted Chicago squad.
TOM FREESE
Blue Line Club
Detroit vs. Seattle (10:10pm)
Detroit is 43-17 their last 60 games as favorites of -125 or higher and they are 7-0 their last 7 games as road favorites. The Tigers are 25-10 vs. a starter that has a WHIP of over 1.30 and they are 26-11 with Justin Verlander vs. losing teams. Seattle is 3-10 their last 13 home games and they are 6-16 off a win. The Mariners are 1-7 in the last 8 starts made by Carlos Silva and they are 0-5 in his last 5 home starts.
PLAY ON DETROIT - (Verlander vs. Silva)
Blue Line Club
Detroit vs. Seattle (10:10pm)
Detroit is 43-17 their last 60 games as favorites of -125 or higher and they are 7-0 their last 7 games as road favorites. The Tigers are 25-10 vs. a starter that has a WHIP of over 1.30 and they are 26-11 with Justin Verlander vs. losing teams. Seattle is 3-10 their last 13 home games and they are 6-16 off a win. The Mariners are 1-7 in the last 8 starts made by Carlos Silva and they are 0-5 in his last 5 home starts.
PLAY ON DETROIT - (Verlander vs. Silva)
45-27 L72, Yesterday 1-1 (STL Cardinals"W",CIN Reds"L")CHRIS JORDAN
Detroit -130 at SEATTLE
Big winner with the Yanks on the Run Line; tonight we roll with the the Tigers in Seattle. We're listing both Justin Verlander and Carlos Silva, as the former has righted his ship after a terrible start to the season.
Silva may be coming off his first win in 13 starts, but he's dropped both of his starts against Detroit this season, giving up 14 runs in those games back in May. Couple that with the fact the Tigers have won eight of the last 10 meetings, and it looks like an easy win with the boys from Motown.
Meanwhile, Verlander is 2-0 with a 2.42 ERA over his last four starts. He is also 5-1 with a 2.90 ERA in six career starts against the M's. Today he avenges a May 31 loss in Seattle.
5 TIGERS
Detroit -130 at SEATTLE
Big winner with the Yanks on the Run Line; tonight we roll with the the Tigers in Seattle. We're listing both Justin Verlander and Carlos Silva, as the former has righted his ship after a terrible start to the season.
Silva may be coming off his first win in 13 starts, but he's dropped both of his starts against Detroit this season, giving up 14 runs in those games back in May. Couple that with the fact the Tigers have won eight of the last 10 meetings, and it looks like an easy win with the boys from Motown.
Meanwhile, Verlander is 2-0 with a 2.42 ERA over his last four starts. He is also 5-1 with a 2.90 ERA in six career starts against the M's. Today he avenges a May 31 loss in Seattle.
5 TIGERS
STU FINER
Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles just win ball games. They aren?t the strongest team, they aren?t the fastest team and they surely aren?t the best team but they win games. They win those games at home at an alarming rate.
The Baltimore Orioles are 24-13 at home this season. You can not ?fluke? your way to a record like that. We aren?t a month in to the season, or forty games in. We are now just a week away from the all-star break and the Orioles have played 83 games.
The Orioles send a reliable southpaw to the hill tonight. Garrett Olson does it with moxy. He doesn?t have great stuff but he battles and gets wins. He is 6-3 on the season and pitches much better at home.
Baltimore Orioles (-)
Boston Red Sox at NY Yankees
Big showdown here tonight in the Bronx. Both of these teams are coming off tough series. The Yankees dropped two games to Texas. Sure they scored 18 runs last night but their offense was non-existent in game one and game two. The Red Sox are coming off there tough series against the Rays. I think everyone knows what happened in that three game set. The Sox bullpen let them down time and time again.
The Yankees send their ace to the hill tonight. Not only is Andy the Yankees ace, he is their hottest pitcher as well. Andy is 3-0 in his last three starts. Andy hasn?t relied on the Yankees big offense to get these wins either. Andy has thrown nineteen innings and he has allowed just two runs.
Andy is 9-5 this season despite his tough start. Andy knows how to pitch big games, and this is a big game. Look for the Yankees to win this game, as this is a tough trip for Boston, who played well in to the night last night.
New York Yankees (-)
Oakland Athletics at Chicago White Sox
We don?t know if anyone can stop the Chicago White Sox right now. The Chicago Cubs couldn?t stop the White Sox. The Indians couldn?t stop them, even the Indians ace C.C. Sabathia couldn?t beat the red-hot Chicago White Sox.
The White Sox have won eight of their last ten and have won seven straight games. The White Sox aren?t beating bad teams either. They took two of three in Los Angeles, took all three from Chicago and then followed up with another sweep and took of the Indians winning three close games.
The White Sox are the most balanced team in baseball. They are top five in both offense and pitching. In fact the White Sox rank first in earned run average and first in quality starts. Their offense averages close to five runs per game and is second in baseball with 119 long balls.
The Cubs get all the talk, but they shouldn?t The White Sox may be the best team in baseball.
Chicago White Sox (-)
Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners
All about the pitching match-up here tonight. If you look at it quickly you may think these guys are even, but that couldn?t be further from the truth. Sure both Carlos Silva and Justin Verlander are 4-9. Sure both guys have thrown around 100 innings but the comparisons end there.
Justin has really been dominating in his recent starts. Carlos Silva on the other hand has been getting hit very hard. In Carlos last 15 innings he has allowed 22 hits and has an ERA over 5. Justin on the other hand hasn?t lost since June 6 and two starts ago had his most dominant start all year. Justin?s last start on the road he threw five innings allowed just five hits and struck out ten batters and picked up the win. This is a guy that can win in any ballpark.
The Tigers will get it going again, they still are red hot.
Detroit Tigers (-)
National League
LA Dodgers at Houston Astros
It is tough to get on the read on the Dodgers we know that. You have to trust they are a better team than what they have shown though. There is one thing that is consistent for the Dodgers, and that is there starting pitching. The Dodgers have quality starters and have a very deep bull-pen. They don?t have one or two good arms, they have four or five. Their bullpen is led by closer Takashi Saito. On the season he has thirteen saves and three wins. Saito has thrown 34.2 innings this season and has struck out 48 batters. You want to know his walk total? How about just eleven walks this season? How about over a four to one strikeout to walk ratio?
The Dodgers actually have seven relievers with an ERA under 3, which is absolutely outstanding. These guys come in late to games and close the door. Hong-Chih Kuo has been great, Chan Ho Park has had a resurgent and Cory Wade is throwing better than ever.
The last few nights the Dodgers have actually scored a few runs and got a few hits, if the Dodgers hit they are going to win a ton of baseball games.
LA Dodgers (-)
Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks
Love the Diamondbacks here tonight. Brandon Webb has made just home start out of his last five outings. This is a guy that has been pitching each and every start on the road. To take it one step further he has made just two starts at home since May 16. He has managed to pitch well on the road, he is 6-3 on the road.
At home there isn?t anyone better than Brandon though. He has made eight starts and he is 6-1 in Arizona. He has struck out 39 batters and has walked just eleven. We all know Brandon has a fantastic sinker but allowing just three home-runs at home is almost mind boggling. Arizona is still the class of the NL West, they will get back on the winning track.
Arizona Diamondbacks (-)
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
The Braves will be able to get back on track here tonight at home. This is a team that isn?t just three games over .500 or five games over .500. This is a team that is still 12 games over .500 at home. Playing against Atlanta and those big bats is no easy task.
Jair Jurrjens goes for the Braves tonight. This is Atlanta?s best pitcher, make no mistake about it he is even better than Tim Hudson. Jair has not lost a game since May 12, that is a span of nine starts and he has gone undefeated in those.
Jair has really been picking it up as of late which is no surprise. In fact in his last three starts he hasn?t allowed an earned run. Over 21 innings with no runs allowed. He has walked just five batters in that time-frame as well.
Look for this Curaco native to win this game tonight, when he is on, he can shutdown any line-up.
Atlanta Braves (-)
Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants
This line is just too good to pass up. We all know that the Cubs are a good team and four out of five days they are a better team, but not here, not tonight. Tim Lincecum is this weeks sports illustrated cover boy and for good reason. Nicknamed ?The Freak? because of his immense talent and small stature Tim is the real deal.
Tim has thrown 109 innings so far this season. Tim sports a 2.38 ERA this season with a whip of just 1.23. Even more impressive is Tim?s record. Let?s remember he pitches for one of the worst teams in baseball. Timmy is 9-1 on the season. 9-1 folks. The Giants are 11-5 in his sixteen starts, what else can you ask?
Tim?s last start was his best. Seven innings, five hits and eleven strikeouts against the Oakland Athletics. That was a 1-0 shutout win! Tim?s only loss came back in April, when he is on, he beats anyone!
San Francisco Giants (-)
Washington Nationals at Cincinnati Reds
There is a ton of talk and a ton of buzz for Edinson Volquez and he deserves it. Johnny Cueto actually came in to this season as the higher rated prospect though. Johnny came to the scene on April 3, 2008. That game he threw seven innings of just one hit baseball. All told he threw seven innings, allowed just one hit, struck out ten and didn?t walk a batter.
Over the middle part of the season Johnny began to issue too many free passes. That has all ended. His last start he was great. He threw 6 plus innings of shutout ball against the Indians. In his start before last he threw five real solid innings against the Yankees and didn?t walk a batter.
The Reds bats came alive last night and we expect a similar result. Look for Jay Bruce to go deep again (He hit two out last night!)
Cincinnati Reds (-)
New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals
The Mets just can?t get out of their own way. Tonight they are going to drop this game and this series. The Mets will end up going 1-3 against the Cardinals and falling even further back in the NL East. On top of fading out of the NL East, if the Mets aren?t careful they aren?t even going to have a shot at the wild-card.
The Mets send Mike Pelfrey to the hill tonight. Mike is the Mets number five starter. Mike has improved slightly from last year but that wasn?t too tough of a step. Last year Mike went 3-8 and had an ERA over 5.55. This year Mike still hasn?t gotten past his road struggles. Mike has three wins on the road, but overall he has thrown 36 innings and has allowed 77 base runners. He has OVER a 2.00 whip and his ERA is a putrid 6.38 away from Shea.
The Cardinals have taken two of the first three, tonight they take the third game and the series in convincing fashion.
St. Louis Cardinals (-)
Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles just win ball games. They aren?t the strongest team, they aren?t the fastest team and they surely aren?t the best team but they win games. They win those games at home at an alarming rate.
The Baltimore Orioles are 24-13 at home this season. You can not ?fluke? your way to a record like that. We aren?t a month in to the season, or forty games in. We are now just a week away from the all-star break and the Orioles have played 83 games.
The Orioles send a reliable southpaw to the hill tonight. Garrett Olson does it with moxy. He doesn?t have great stuff but he battles and gets wins. He is 6-3 on the season and pitches much better at home.
Baltimore Orioles (-)
Boston Red Sox at NY Yankees
Big showdown here tonight in the Bronx. Both of these teams are coming off tough series. The Yankees dropped two games to Texas. Sure they scored 18 runs last night but their offense was non-existent in game one and game two. The Red Sox are coming off there tough series against the Rays. I think everyone knows what happened in that three game set. The Sox bullpen let them down time and time again.
The Yankees send their ace to the hill tonight. Not only is Andy the Yankees ace, he is their hottest pitcher as well. Andy is 3-0 in his last three starts. Andy hasn?t relied on the Yankees big offense to get these wins either. Andy has thrown nineteen innings and he has allowed just two runs.
Andy is 9-5 this season despite his tough start. Andy knows how to pitch big games, and this is a big game. Look for the Yankees to win this game, as this is a tough trip for Boston, who played well in to the night last night.
New York Yankees (-)
Oakland Athletics at Chicago White Sox
We don?t know if anyone can stop the Chicago White Sox right now. The Chicago Cubs couldn?t stop the White Sox. The Indians couldn?t stop them, even the Indians ace C.C. Sabathia couldn?t beat the red-hot Chicago White Sox.
The White Sox have won eight of their last ten and have won seven straight games. The White Sox aren?t beating bad teams either. They took two of three in Los Angeles, took all three from Chicago and then followed up with another sweep and took of the Indians winning three close games.
The White Sox are the most balanced team in baseball. They are top five in both offense and pitching. In fact the White Sox rank first in earned run average and first in quality starts. Their offense averages close to five runs per game and is second in baseball with 119 long balls.
The Cubs get all the talk, but they shouldn?t The White Sox may be the best team in baseball.
Chicago White Sox (-)
Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners
All about the pitching match-up here tonight. If you look at it quickly you may think these guys are even, but that couldn?t be further from the truth. Sure both Carlos Silva and Justin Verlander are 4-9. Sure both guys have thrown around 100 innings but the comparisons end there.
Justin has really been dominating in his recent starts. Carlos Silva on the other hand has been getting hit very hard. In Carlos last 15 innings he has allowed 22 hits and has an ERA over 5. Justin on the other hand hasn?t lost since June 6 and two starts ago had his most dominant start all year. Justin?s last start on the road he threw five innings allowed just five hits and struck out ten batters and picked up the win. This is a guy that can win in any ballpark.
The Tigers will get it going again, they still are red hot.
Detroit Tigers (-)
National League
LA Dodgers at Houston Astros
It is tough to get on the read on the Dodgers we know that. You have to trust they are a better team than what they have shown though. There is one thing that is consistent for the Dodgers, and that is there starting pitching. The Dodgers have quality starters and have a very deep bull-pen. They don?t have one or two good arms, they have four or five. Their bullpen is led by closer Takashi Saito. On the season he has thirteen saves and three wins. Saito has thrown 34.2 innings this season and has struck out 48 batters. You want to know his walk total? How about just eleven walks this season? How about over a four to one strikeout to walk ratio?
The Dodgers actually have seven relievers with an ERA under 3, which is absolutely outstanding. These guys come in late to games and close the door. Hong-Chih Kuo has been great, Chan Ho Park has had a resurgent and Cory Wade is throwing better than ever.
The last few nights the Dodgers have actually scored a few runs and got a few hits, if the Dodgers hit they are going to win a ton of baseball games.
LA Dodgers (-)
Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks
Love the Diamondbacks here tonight. Brandon Webb has made just home start out of his last five outings. This is a guy that has been pitching each and every start on the road. To take it one step further he has made just two starts at home since May 16. He has managed to pitch well on the road, he is 6-3 on the road.
At home there isn?t anyone better than Brandon though. He has made eight starts and he is 6-1 in Arizona. He has struck out 39 batters and has walked just eleven. We all know Brandon has a fantastic sinker but allowing just three home-runs at home is almost mind boggling. Arizona is still the class of the NL West, they will get back on the winning track.
Arizona Diamondbacks (-)
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
The Braves will be able to get back on track here tonight at home. This is a team that isn?t just three games over .500 or five games over .500. This is a team that is still 12 games over .500 at home. Playing against Atlanta and those big bats is no easy task.
Jair Jurrjens goes for the Braves tonight. This is Atlanta?s best pitcher, make no mistake about it he is even better than Tim Hudson. Jair has not lost a game since May 12, that is a span of nine starts and he has gone undefeated in those.
Jair has really been picking it up as of late which is no surprise. In fact in his last three starts he hasn?t allowed an earned run. Over 21 innings with no runs allowed. He has walked just five batters in that time-frame as well.
Look for this Curaco native to win this game tonight, when he is on, he can shutdown any line-up.
Atlanta Braves (-)
Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants
This line is just too good to pass up. We all know that the Cubs are a good team and four out of five days they are a better team, but not here, not tonight. Tim Lincecum is this weeks sports illustrated cover boy and for good reason. Nicknamed ?The Freak? because of his immense talent and small stature Tim is the real deal.
Tim has thrown 109 innings so far this season. Tim sports a 2.38 ERA this season with a whip of just 1.23. Even more impressive is Tim?s record. Let?s remember he pitches for one of the worst teams in baseball. Timmy is 9-1 on the season. 9-1 folks. The Giants are 11-5 in his sixteen starts, what else can you ask?
Tim?s last start was his best. Seven innings, five hits and eleven strikeouts against the Oakland Athletics. That was a 1-0 shutout win! Tim?s only loss came back in April, when he is on, he beats anyone!
San Francisco Giants (-)
Washington Nationals at Cincinnati Reds
There is a ton of talk and a ton of buzz for Edinson Volquez and he deserves it. Johnny Cueto actually came in to this season as the higher rated prospect though. Johnny came to the scene on April 3, 2008. That game he threw seven innings of just one hit baseball. All told he threw seven innings, allowed just one hit, struck out ten and didn?t walk a batter.
Over the middle part of the season Johnny began to issue too many free passes. That has all ended. His last start he was great. He threw 6 plus innings of shutout ball against the Indians. In his start before last he threw five real solid innings against the Yankees and didn?t walk a batter.
The Reds bats came alive last night and we expect a similar result. Look for Jay Bruce to go deep again (He hit two out last night!)
Cincinnati Reds (-)
New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals
The Mets just can?t get out of their own way. Tonight they are going to drop this game and this series. The Mets will end up going 1-3 against the Cardinals and falling even further back in the NL East. On top of fading out of the NL East, if the Mets aren?t careful they aren?t even going to have a shot at the wild-card.
The Mets send Mike Pelfrey to the hill tonight. Mike is the Mets number five starter. Mike has improved slightly from last year but that wasn?t too tough of a step. Last year Mike went 3-8 and had an ERA over 5.55. This year Mike still hasn?t gotten past his road struggles. Mike has three wins on the road, but overall he has thrown 36 innings and has allowed 77 base runners. He has OVER a 2.00 whip and his ERA is a putrid 6.38 away from Shea.
The Cardinals have taken two of the first three, tonight they take the third game and the series in convincing fashion.
St. Louis Cardinals (-)
Dsethi Sports
2 units:
Dbacks -1 (-109)...Burned last night but seems like the bats are starting to warm up, clutch hopefully will soon follow. Lineup is tough vs. left handers and Parra has struggled with his command even amidst his win streak, these are the types of games Arizona relies on Webb to show up for, stopping the bleeding just like he did vs. Florida last week. Bullpen still better than Milwaukee's even with their recent trouble and lack of lefty bats in Milwaukee lineup helps Webb immensely.
Yankees (-125)...Tough time for Lester to be facing New York at NY for the first time in his career, coming off a personal shellacking and his team struggling, facing one of the hottest pitchers in baseball to boot. Lineup shook off some of the cobwebs last night and with no one to protect Manny in the lineup aside from Drew, lefty who Pettitte can attack, like the home team.
White Sox (-115)...Playing great baseball and facing an A's lineup that's short-handed and young, just the team Vazquez can rebound against. Bullpen favors Chicago, bats are starting to string themselves together and we'll see how Duscherer responds from his first home loss of the year. I've seen him pitch numerous times and he's good but he's not overpowering.
2 units:
Dbacks -1 (-109)...Burned last night but seems like the bats are starting to warm up, clutch hopefully will soon follow. Lineup is tough vs. left handers and Parra has struggled with his command even amidst his win streak, these are the types of games Arizona relies on Webb to show up for, stopping the bleeding just like he did vs. Florida last week. Bullpen still better than Milwaukee's even with their recent trouble and lack of lefty bats in Milwaukee lineup helps Webb immensely.
Yankees (-125)...Tough time for Lester to be facing New York at NY for the first time in his career, coming off a personal shellacking and his team struggling, facing one of the hottest pitchers in baseball to boot. Lineup shook off some of the cobwebs last night and with no one to protect Manny in the lineup aside from Drew, lefty who Pettitte can attack, like the home team.
White Sox (-115)...Playing great baseball and facing an A's lineup that's short-handed and young, just the team Vazquez can rebound against. Bullpen favors Chicago, bats are starting to string themselves together and we'll see how Duscherer responds from his first home loss of the year. I've seen him pitch numerous times and he's good but he's not overpowering.
JIMMY BOYD
I have the Phillies pulling off the road sweep against their division rivals here behind their ace. The Phillies are 6-0 in the last 6 meetings, 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Atlanta, and 4-0 in Hamels' last 4 starts vs. the Braves. The Phillies are also 10-1 in their last 11 vs. a team with a losing record, 22-5 in Hamels' last 27 starts vs. a team with a losing record, and 8-1 in Hamels' last 9 starts during game 3 of a series. The Braves are 1-7 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning record and 0-5 in their last 5 vs. the National League East. Bet the Phillies here.
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES -114
I have the Phillies pulling off the road sweep against their division rivals here behind their ace. The Phillies are 6-0 in the last 6 meetings, 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Atlanta, and 4-0 in Hamels' last 4 starts vs. the Braves. The Phillies are also 10-1 in their last 11 vs. a team with a losing record, 22-5 in Hamels' last 27 starts vs. a team with a losing record, and 8-1 in Hamels' last 9 starts during game 3 of a series. The Braves are 1-7 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning record and 0-5 in their last 5 vs. the National League East. Bet the Phillies here.
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES -114
