OffshoreInsiders.com Senior Sports Handicapper Matt Rivers has a free baseball pick Thursday is on the St. Louis Cardinals.
Bud Norris had another outstanding performance against St. Louis yesterday in the Houston upset victory but I don’t see lightning striking twice. Certainly I can’t fully trust young Lance Lynn in only his second start after getting hit fairly hard by the Giants at home in his first but this price is just too cheap on the definite better team.
Let’s face it, the Astros may not be the worst team in the history of the major leagues but they also are not good and to get a surging Pujols, a former Astro who should be more than motivated in Berkman and the far better overall team at around a pick or so is more than fine with me. I don’t even mind JA Happ as the former Phillie lefthander has a solid upside and can be very good at times. But the Astros are just not good and at this price, even in Houston, makes me more than alright with Tony LaRussa’s Redbirds.
By the way Lynn did allow five runs in five innings in that last start but he also showed a lot of promise as evidenced by the five strikeouts and no walks. This kid may not become Cy Young but he isn’t bad at all and to get the much harder hitting ballclub that is deserving of being in first place at this price is a deal and a total must play, period.
Top expert pick on this game: St. Louis
Bud Norris had another outstanding performance against St. Louis yesterday in the Houston upset victory but I don’t see lightning striking twice. Certainly I can’t fully trust young Lance Lynn in only his second start after getting hit fairly hard by the Giants at home in his first but this price is just too cheap on the definite better team.
Let’s face it, the Astros may not be the worst team in the history of the major leagues but they also are not good and to get a surging Pujols, a former Astro who should be more than motivated in Berkman and the far better overall team at around a pick or so is more than fine with me. I don’t even mind JA Happ as the former Phillie lefthander has a solid upside and can be very good at times. But the Astros are just not good and at this price, even in Houston, makes me more than alright with Tony LaRussa’s Redbirds.
By the way Lynn did allow five runs in five innings in that last start but he also showed a lot of promise as evidenced by the five strikeouts and no walks. This kid may not become Cy Young but he isn’t bad at all and to get the much harder hitting ballclub that is deserving of being in first place at this price is a deal and a total must play, period.
Top expert pick on this game: St. Louis
GodsTips of OffshoreInsiders.com 1-of-10
ATLANTA (JURRJENS -118) Florida (Volstad)
In 10 starts, Jair Jurrjens has absurd numbers of an ERA 1.75 and 1.014 WHIP. Chris Volstad has lost four straight decisions. His last personal win was on April 26. Florida has lost seven straight (-7.8 units) and 9-of-10. In their last seven games the Marlins have a tiny .226 batting average and .299 OBP.
The Braves are 7-1 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning record. On the other hand, the Marlins are 0-7 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record and in fact have lost seven straight at home overall.
Atlanta’s has a slugging percentage last five games of .351 is nothing special, but it’s infinitely better than the Ms .257.
ATLANTA (JURRJENS -118) Florida (Volstad)
In 10 starts, Jair Jurrjens has absurd numbers of an ERA 1.75 and 1.014 WHIP. Chris Volstad has lost four straight decisions. His last personal win was on April 26. Florida has lost seven straight (-7.8 units) and 9-of-10. In their last seven games the Marlins have a tiny .226 batting average and .299 OBP.
The Braves are 7-1 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning record. On the other hand, the Marlins are 0-7 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record and in fact have lost seven straight at home overall.
Atlanta’s has a slugging percentage last five games of .351 is nothing special, but it’s infinitely better than the Ms .257.
JOHN CHANG
---Start Time 7:05 PM EST---
Seattle Mariners (+180, list Fister) over DETROIT TIGERS, 5 dimes
I look at this moneyline and I see a great opportunity to get some value with the dog. Not just any dog, a dog with a great pitcher headed to the hill tonight and a very favorable recent history playing in MoTown.
---Start Time 9:00 PM EST---
Miami Heat/DALLAS MAVERICKS over 184, 10 dimes
Both of these teams are playing outstanding defense in this finals series, evidenced by the 4 straight under the total results. Intestingly enough, both teams also have strong records of scoring big in the next game after a low scoring performance. That hasn't happened yet. The reason I see this happening is a lack of attacking the basket on the part of Miami. They're offense is reliant on slashing to the hoop to get to the free throw line constantly throughout the game. I don't know where Lebron was at during the last matchup, but if there's ever a game when he should drive to the hoop on every opportunity it would be this one. Erik Spoelstra says he's looking to include Lebron and his attacking mentality much more in this pivotal game 5 contest, and I see that as equating to lots of clock stoppages and free throws. As Dirk becomes more accustomed to his torn finger tendon, his production should increase as well. Take the over.
---Start Time 7:05 PM EST---
Seattle Mariners (+180, list Fister) over DETROIT TIGERS, 5 dimes
I look at this moneyline and I see a great opportunity to get some value with the dog. Not just any dog, a dog with a great pitcher headed to the hill tonight and a very favorable recent history playing in MoTown.
---Start Time 9:00 PM EST---
Miami Heat/DALLAS MAVERICKS over 184, 10 dimes
Both of these teams are playing outstanding defense in this finals series, evidenced by the 4 straight under the total results. Intestingly enough, both teams also have strong records of scoring big in the next game after a low scoring performance. That hasn't happened yet. The reason I see this happening is a lack of attacking the basket on the part of Miami. They're offense is reliant on slashing to the hoop to get to the free throw line constantly throughout the game. I don't know where Lebron was at during the last matchup, but if there's ever a game when he should drive to the hoop on every opportunity it would be this one. Erik Spoelstra says he's looking to include Lebron and his attacking mentality much more in this pivotal game 5 contest, and I see that as equating to lots of clock stoppages and free throws. As Dirk becomes more accustomed to his torn finger tendon, his production should increase as well. Take the over.
Dr Robert:
NBA
Opinion
DALLAS (-1) over Miami
09-Jun-11 06:05 PM Pacific
Miami has won their last 8 games straight up after a loss (5-3 ATS), but the Heat are only 8-14 ATS for the season after a loss and Dallas is 31-7-1 ATS when not favored by more than 3 points when both Dirk Nowitzki and Tyson Chandler are both in the lineup. There are no significant situations favoring either side in this game, but my ratings favor Dallas by 3 points and I'll consider Dallas a Strong Opinion at -1 or better and a lean at -1 1/2 or -2 points.
2 Star Selection
UNDER (185) - Miami at DALLAS
09-Jun-11 06:05 PM Pacific
This series has averaged only 176.8 points per game and my math model projects 183 points using each team's playoff games only and I get 181 points using the average pace of this series (with expected scoring efficiencies). In tightly contested playoff series the totals tend to get even lower as the series continues - especially when two elite teams are playing each other. In fact, this game applies to a 23-1 UNDER situation in which the only loss went over in overtime. I'll go UNDER 183 points or higher in a 2-Star Best Bet.
NBA
Opinion
DALLAS (-1) over Miami
09-Jun-11 06:05 PM Pacific
Miami has won their last 8 games straight up after a loss (5-3 ATS), but the Heat are only 8-14 ATS for the season after a loss and Dallas is 31-7-1 ATS when not favored by more than 3 points when both Dirk Nowitzki and Tyson Chandler are both in the lineup. There are no significant situations favoring either side in this game, but my ratings favor Dallas by 3 points and I'll consider Dallas a Strong Opinion at -1 or better and a lean at -1 1/2 or -2 points.
2 Star Selection
UNDER (185) - Miami at DALLAS
09-Jun-11 06:05 PM Pacific
This series has averaged only 176.8 points per game and my math model projects 183 points using each team's playoff games only and I get 181 points using the average pace of this series (with expected scoring efficiencies). In tightly contested playoff series the totals tend to get even lower as the series continues - especially when two elite teams are playing each other. In fact, this game applies to a 23-1 UNDER situation in which the only loss went over in overtime. I'll go UNDER 183 points or higher in a 2-Star Best Bet.
