SPORTS WAGERS
Miami +104 over DALLAS
In the pregame show prior to game four, and in response to Jason Terry’s trash talk against LeBron James, Magic Johnson was asked what he though about that. “I think Lebron will have a good game”, said Magic. Way to step out Magic. That’s going out on a real limb. What a genius he is! That’s like saying, “I think Dirk will have a good game”. What’s Magic going to say tonight? “I think Wade will have a good game”? At least we have Jeff Van Gundy and Mark Jackson calling the game and those two are terrific and entertaining too, especially Gundy and his keen sense of humor. In terms of the game itself and without sounding like a broken record, you always get the sense that the Heat are about to blow a game open and they don’t. On the flip side is that the Mavericks seem like they’re just trying to stay close. Again, what we have here is a perimeter shooting team v. a team that drives to the hole and dominates points in the paint and rebounding. The Heat also have a big edge on the boards and when you combine that along with the three of the best players in the league, that team’s chances of winning are much better tan the opposition’s. On the eve of Game 5, Dallas guard DeShawn Stevenson directed some sharp words toward James, saying he “checked out” in the final minutes of Game 4 on Tuesday night. That’s two games in a row that a Maverick couldn’t keep his mouth shut. The response will be come in the form of the scoreboard. One side note here is that the updated series price has Miami –224 and with this game being played in Dallas, that number really tells you that the books don’t like the Mav’s chances tonight. Play: Miami +104 (Risking 2 units).
St. Louis –110 over HOUSTON
J.A. Happ has one of the worst groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profiles in the game at 29%/20%/51% and that’s why the Astros have lost 14 of his last 17 starts. His ERA is 4.65 and even that’s flattering, as Happ is not fooling anyone anymore. Happ has a BAA of .203 at Minute Maid Park to go along with an ERA of 2.70, which looks pretty sweet on paper. However, his road BAA is .289 and his road ERA is 6.82, which begs the question, why the big discrepancy? It’s nothing but pure luck, as he’s still given up more jacks at home, they’ve just come with the bases empty. A low hit rate at home has aided him greatly but it can’t last and a regression in those home stats is the closest thing to a sure thing that you’ll ever see. To take the starting spot vacated by the injured Kyle McClellan, the Cardinals promoted 24-year-old Lance Lynn, who made his MLB debut against the Giants. The tall and strong-framed former supplemental first round pick in '08 features a solid power sinker in addition to his quicker four-seamer. He generally sits in the 87-91 mph range with his sinker, but can add a few ticks and hit 95-mph with his high heater. Lynn hits his spots with his sinker and curveball, which are both average pitches. He has struggled with left-handed hitters in the upper minors but has completely dominated righties and that’s the key here. The Astros are loaded with right-handed hitters. Brett Wallace and Michael Bourne are the only two left-handed bats in line-up and both those guys didn’t start yesterday. Lynn had a high strikeout rate in the minors (54 K’s in 62 IP) this season and in those 62 innings, he allowed just one jack. He also has one game under his belt and has been working with the best pitching coach this league has ever seen for the past week. Having said that, this one is all about wagering against J.A. Happ. Play: St. Louis –110 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Boston +118 over N.Y. YANKEES
The Yanks can beat the A’s, Angels, Orioles, and Royals of the baseball world but against good teams, they’re not so good. Over their last nine series covering 26 games, the Yanks have played four of those series against teams above .500 (Boston twice, TB, Seattle and Toronto). They’ve gone 4-9 against that quartet and overall they’ve lost seven of eight games to the Red Sox. C.C. Sabathia gives them their best shot to win but so what. The Red Sox possess the most potent lineup in the game and that lineup has a combined 295 AB’s vs. Sabathia and has 77 hits against him for a BA of .261. Meanwhile, Josh Beckett has beaten the Yanks twice already this year, hurling 14 shutout innings, with a 19/3 K/BB, while allowing only six hits. Is there a single reason not to wager on the Red Sox here taking back a tag? We think not. Play: Boston +118 (Risking 2 units).
