Comps
Marc Lawrence
Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
When Clayton Kershaw takes the mound at Coors Stadium in Denver to take on the Rockies in the opener of this four game series Thursday evening he will do so knowing he's cashed in six of his last seven starts in this series and seven of his last efforts during the month of June. With Kershaw in great KW form with eight walks and 43 strikeouts his last five starts, look for Los Angeles to improve to 14-7 in its last 21 games in this park here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Dodgers.
MTi Sports
Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins
Play: Texas Rangers
The Rangers are 15-0 since May 2010 when they are off a win in which their opponent left 20+ men on base, as long as they were not a 120+ dog in that win. Note that the Rangers have won these 15 games by an average of 3.8 runs and in their last three they have outscored their opponents by a 17-1 margin.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants
Play: Cincinnati Reds
Giants starter Madison Bumgarner likely deserves better than his 2-7 record, but he's in for a tough matchup tonight at home vs. the Reds, who are just killing lefties this season. Cincy is averaging nearly seven runs per game vs. southpaws while hitting nearly .300 and Bumgarner has pitched much worse at home, where he's winless, compared to on the road. In his only career start vs. the Reds, Bumgarner allowed eight runs in less than three innings.
Matt Fargo
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees
The Red Sox have certainly turned things around after a slow start to the season and now are in first place in the American League East by a game over New York. Part of that reason has been the domination against the Yankees as they 7-1 through the first eight meetings, including five straight wins at Yankee Stadium to start the season. The offense is picking things up but the Red Sox are hitting just .245 on the road and that likely is not going to be getting any better after Thursday. This is a big game for New York as it needs this game just for confidence sake and with its ace on the hill, it should be able to come through as expected. After losing six straight games, the Yankees have gone 13-7 over their last 20 games but are barely holding on in the ultra-competitive American League East. With seven more home games on tap against division leaders Cleveland and Texas, nothing is coming easy but the Yankees are a perfect 7-0 in their last seven series closing games. This is the third meeting between C.C. Sabathia and Josh Beckett this season with the latter dominating both games. That is giving us solid value on Sabathia. He has tossed two straight quality outings and three of four with the Yankees winning all four of those games. Prior to his rough home outing against the Red Sox where he allowed three runs, he gave up a total of three runs in his four previous home starts against Boston. The Yankees are 14-2 in Sabathia's last 16 home starts against teams with a winning record. Beckett has pitched solidly outside of those two starts against the Yankees as he has now thrown six straight quality starts and he looks to be the pitcher of old as opposed to his rough season a year ago. Overall he has a 2.01 ERA on the season and that goes up to 2.87 on the road and while still solid, Boston is just 3-3 in his six road starts on the season. Prior to the two games this season against New York, Beckett has not fared well as the Yankees pounded him for 37 runs in 34 innings in his previous six outings. 3* New York Yankees
Rob Vinciletti
D-Backs vs. Pirates
Play: Under 7.5
This game fits a solid totals system. What we want to do is play the Under for road favorites off a road dog loss at +140 or less if they scored 2 or less runs and are playing an opponent off a home win that scored 4 or less runs on 10+ hits and had 10 or more men left on base. Both teams have solid bullpen and the starting pitcher match up also projects to the under. The Pirates have J. Karstens on the mound and he has a solid 2.01 home ERA and in his one start vs Arizona he threw a 2 hit complete game shutout. Tonight he opposes Arizonas J. Collmenter who has an excellent 1.25 ERA in 43+ innings this season. Four of his 5 starts have gone under and Arizona has gone under all 3 times on the road at -100 to -125. Look for this one to stay under the total tonight.
BIG AL
Chicago Cubs @ Philadelphia Phillies
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies
Of Kyle Kendrick's three spot starts, only one has been anything near decent, and that was his first one more than a month ago (May 7) when Kendrick threw five shutout innings against the Braves at home. His other two rotation opportunities this season (one at home against Colorado and the last one in Pittsburgh) did not go as planned, so this is a critical opportunity for Kendrick, who despite his starting woes, still maintains pretty solid numbers on the season: a 3.78 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. The righthander must perform well tonight or he risks losing any additional starting roles, especially with both the Marlins and Mets breathing down the neck of his team. He couldn't get a better opportunity than at home facing the Cubs, who are 12-17 on the road this season. The Cubs will send their own lightly-used starter to the mound this evening, but unlike Kendrick, who has been pitching out of the bullpen effectively, righthander Randy Wells only has three starts because he's been injured for a substantial portion of the season. Wells' numbers haven't been very good, but I guess you can say he's consistent in number of starts per month as Wells has had one start in April, one in May, and this will be his second in June. Take the Phils.
David Chan
Blue Jays @ Royals
PICK: Under 8.5
I bet value where I see it and believe these starters will pitch deep into this game and therefore expect a lower scoring affair.
Ricky Romero (5-5, 3.16 ERA) gets the start for the Jays.
Romero lost for his first time in five starts in his teams 5-3 setback on Saturday.
The Blue Jay's ace did throw deep into that game though and had just the one bad inning overall.
He's enjoyed success against the Royals; in his one start vs. them he allowed three runs on five hits over seven frames of work.
Romero will be opposed by Luke Hochevar (3-6, 5.25 ERA) who is coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up eight hits to the last 11 batters he faced; in the end he gave up six runs over six innings of work, and the Twins went on to win 7-2.
Hochevar has been better in front of the home town crowd though, and I believe that will once again be the case this afternoon; he's 2-2 with a 4.18 ERA in friendly confines.
Hochevar is 2-1 with a 3.38 ERA vs. the Blue Jays in his career.
The first two games of this series have soared well above the posted number; expect the finale to sneak "under
Scott Spreitzer
Cincinnati Reds @ Giants
PICK: Giants
The Cincinnati Reds went into their series with the Cubs on a 5-13 slide, scoring a grand total of just 70 runs, an average of just 3.89 rpg. After beating up on the horrible Cubbies for two games, the door was slammed in their face at the plate on Wednesday. Not being able to take that third game against the biggest mess in baseball has to be extremely frustrating for Dusty Baker's troops. And after scoring just 1 run on 4 hits, while striking out 12 times, I believe the Reds are in more trouble in this one. Giants' pitching is on fire heading into this series and I expect Madison Bumgarner to continue the trend. The southpaw has allowed just 12 earned runs and 59 base runners in his last eight starts, spanning 53 2/3 innings, for a red-hot, 2.01 ERA & 1.10 WHIP. His team is on an 8-2 run at home against teams with a losing road record. Meanwhile, the Reds have won just 17 of their last 57 road games against teams with a winning record. They're 2-9 in their last 11 roadies, and just 1-5 when Johnny Cueto pitches on just four days rest. I'm backing the Giants on Thursday night.
Black Widow
1* on Arizona Diamondbacks -115
Arizona Diamondbacks starter Josh Collmenter is one of the most underrated starters in the big leagues. Collmenter is 4-1 with a ridiculous 1.25 ERA and a miniscule 0.670 WHIP in five starts and seven relief appearances this season. He has allowed only 24 hits, 5 walks and 6 earned runs in 43 1/3 innings in 2011. Look for Collmenter to rise to the occasion Thursday as the Diamondbacks avoid getting swept by the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates. Pittsburgh is only hitting .219 and scoring 3.4 runs/game at home this year, so Collmenter should have no problem mowing down this lineup. The Diamondbacks are 6-0 in their last 6 during game 3 of a series. The Pirates are 29-63 in their last 92 during game 3 of a series. Pittsburgh is 3-13 in Karstens' last 16 starts during game 3 of a series. Take the Diamondbacks on the Money Line.
