STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB PITCHING REPORT
THURSDAY, MAY 8TH 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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#901 SAN FRANCISCO @ #902 LA DODGERS - 10:10 PM
•Giants RH Ryan Vogelsong (1-1, 4.60 ERA, WHIP: 1.534) - Vogelsong has put together back-to-back strong efforts by allowing one run and seven hits over 13 innings. He failed to win any of his first five outings before giving up one run and five hits in six innings while beating Atlanta last Saturday. Vogelsong is 4-3 with a 3.97 ERA in 21 career appearances (12 starts) against the Dodgers.
--KEY STAT: VOGELSONG is 16-4 (+14.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was VOGELSONG 4.9, OPPONENT 3.0.
--VOGELSONG is 25-9 (+20.6 Units) against the money line in road games versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was VOGELSONG 4.8, OPPONENT 3.6.
•Dodgers RH Josh Beckett (0-1, 3.14 ERA, WHIP: 1.012) - Beckett is winless in 13 starts since posting a victory in his final outing of the 2012 season. He has 30 strikeouts in 28 2/3 innings over his first five starts of this season after missing most of the last year due to injuries. Beckett is 4-5 with a 3.43 ERA in 10 career starts against the Giants.
--KEY STAT: BECKETT is 5-14 (-12.7 Units) against the money line versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was BECKETT 3.1, OPPONENT 4.8.
--BECKETT is 0-8 (-9.2 Units) against the money line versus teams outscoring opponent by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was BECKETT 2.8, OPPONENT 5.0.
--BECKETT is 22-3 (+17.7 Units) against the money line in home games versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was BECKETT 5.0, OPPONENT 3.8.
#903 MIAMI @ #904 SAN DIEGO - 10:10 PM
•Marlins RH Jacob Turner (0-0, 9.90 ERA, WHIP: 2.100) - Turner gave up six runs and nine hits over four innings Saturday against the Los Angeles Dodgers after missing the previous month with a shoulder injury. The 22-year-old recorded his only complete-game effort last June against San Diego, yielding one run on seven hits with seven strikeouts. Nick Hundley is 2-for-3 against Turner, who was 3-8 with a 3.74 ERA overall last season.
•Padres RH Ian Kennedy (2-4, 3.43 ERA, WHIP: 1.119) - Kennedy has allowed three or fewer runs in six of his seven starts, but has registered only one victory in the last five outings. The USC product defeated Miami 4-2 on April 6, surrendering one run on three hits in six innings and is 3-1 lifetime versus the Marlins with a 3.52 ERA in five starts. Stanton (4-for-11, two homers) and Jones (5-for-12, one homer), have hit well against Kennedy.
#905 MINNESOTA @ #906 CLEVELAND - 12:05 PM
•Twins RH Kevin Correia (1-3, 6.09 ERA, WHIP: 1.471) - Correia yielded one run and five hits in seven innings while retiring 13 of the final 14 batters he faced in earning his first victory since Sept. 1, a 6-1 win over Baltimore on Saturday. “Like I’ve always said, that’s what I’m here to do,” the 33-year-old San Diego native told reporters. “I felt like I’ve thrown some games where I’ve had a good chance to win a game and to go a month without getting one is hard. It just puts more pressure on you every time you go out there so it’s nice to get that first one.” Correia is 1-2 with a 3.78 ERA in three starts against Cleveland, including a 3-2 victory July 20 when he yielded two runs and three hits in six innings.
•Indians RH Justin Masterson (1-1, 4.01 ERA, WHIP: 1.360) - Masterson lowered his ERA by 0.83 after yielding four hits and striking out six in 7 1/3 innings of Cleveland's 2-0 victory over the Chicago White Sox on Saturday for his first win since Aug. 21. "It's nice to go out and pitch well," the 29-year-old Kingston, Jamaica, native told reporters. "Anytime you're not doing as well as you hoped, it's hard not to press. But I've been really happy with my last four starts (1-1, 2.96 ERA, 26 strikeouts in 27 1/3 innings)." Masterson was roughed up by Minnesota on April 6, allowing six runs (five earned) and seven hits in 3 2/3 innings of a 10-7 loss, and is 3-7 in 22 appearances (17 starts) against the Twins.
--KEY STAT: MASTERSON is 10-1 (+9.3 Units) against the money line after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was MASTERSON 3.5, OPPONENT 1.5.
#907 HOUSTON @ #908 DETROIT - 1:05 PM
•Astros LH Dallas Keuchel (2-2, 3.96 ERA, WHIP: 1.266) - Keuchel had a string of four straight quality starts halted in his last outing, when he was touched for four runs in six innings in a 9-8 home loss to Seattle. Keuchel has pitched at least six innings in five consecutive turns and yielded a total of eight runs in a four-start stretch prior to Saturday's game. Keuchel has not fared well in two outings (one start) for Detroit, giving up nine runs and 14 hits in 10 innings.
--KEY STAT: KEUCHEL is 12-1 OVER (+11.1 Units) on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KEUCHEL 4.7, OPPONENT 7.1.
--KEUCHEL is 13-3 OVER (+9.7 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KEUCHEL 4.2, OPPONENT 6.4.
--KEUCHEL is 11-2 OVER (+8.8 Units) in road games after a loss over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KEUCHEL 4.5, OPPONENT 6.5.
•Tigers LH Drew Smyly (2-1, 2.45 ERA, WHIP: 1.000) - Smyly started the season in the bullpen but is making a strong bid to become a permanent fixture in the rotation following a stellar effort last time out, blanking Kansas City on two hits over seven innings in a spot start. The 24-year-old Arkansas native also was solid in his previous start, permitting two runs and striking out seven in six innings. Smyly is 1-0 in two career appearances against Houston, allowing no runs and two hits over 2 2/3 innings.
#909 BALTIMORE @ #910 TAMPA BAY - 7:10 PM
•Orioles RH Ubaldo Jimenez (1-4, 5.19 ERA, WHIP: 1.558) - Jimenez enjoyed his best outing of the season on Friday, tossing 7 1/3 scoreless innings while allowing only three hits and striking out a season-high 10 to beat Minnesota. The 30-year-old from the Dominican Republic had given up three or more runs in each of his first five starts. Yunel Escobar is 7-for-19 with a homer against Jimenez, who is 3-1 with a 2.73 ERA in four starts versus Tampa Bay.
•Rays LH David Price (3-2, 4.44 ERA, WHIP: 1.171) - Price has recorded only one victory in his last four turns but limited the New York Yankees to two runs over seven innings Friday without receiving a decision. The Vanderbilt product has struck out 55 and walked only five in 48 2/3 frames. Nelson Cruz (6-for-16, two homers) has hit well against Price, who is 7-2 with a 2.70 ERA over 103 1/3 innings in 16 starts against Baltimore.
--KEY STAT: PRICE is 14-5 OVER (+9.4 Units) versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was PRICE 4.6, OPPONENT 4.8.
--PRICE is 18-8 OVER (+10.3 Units) versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was PRICE 4.1, OPPONENT 4.8.
--PRICE is 12-2 OVER (+10.6 Units) in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was PRICE 4.0, OPPONENT 6.2.
#911 KANSAS CITY @ #912 SEATTLE - 10:10 PM
•Royals LH Danny Duffy (1-2, 2.19 ERA, WHIP: 1.138) - Duffy is making his second straight start after opening the season in the bullpen. He started in place of injured Bruce Chen on Saturday and allowed one run and two hits in four innings while losing to Detroit. Duffy allowed one run and five hits in 3 2/3 innings in his lone career start against the Mariners last September.
•Mariners RH Hisashi Iwakuma (1-0, 5.40 ERA, WHIP: 1.049) - Iwakuma made his season debut against Houston on Saturday and recorded the win while giving up four runs and six hits in 6 2/3 innings. He began the season on the disabled list due to a finger injury. Iwakuma struck out nine while throwing eight innings of four-hit shutout ball when he defeated Kansas City in his final outing of last season.
--KEY STAT: IWAKUMA is 23-11 (+15.3 Units) against the money line versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was IWAKUMA 4.4, OPPONENT 3.1.
#913 PHILADELPHIA @ #914 TORONTO - 7:05 PM
•Phillies RH A.J. Burnett (2-1, 2.06 ERA, WHIP: 1.214) - Burnett has given up more than two runs only once this season and has not allowed more than seven hits in any of his seven starts. The 16-year veteran yielded one run and three hits over six innings in a 7-2 win over Washington last time out. Burnett, who played for the Blue Jays from 2006-08, is 3-4 with a 5.06 ERA all-time against his former team.
--KEY STAT: BURNETT is 53-82 (-32.4 Units) against the money line in road games in night games since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was BURNETT 4.1, OPPONENT 4.6.
•Blue Jays RH R.A. Dickey (2-3, 5.01 ERA, WHIP: 1.477) - Dickey has struggled to the tune of 33 strikeouts against 22 walks this season, including four walks in six innings in a no-decision against Pittsburgh on Saturday. The 39-year-old knuckleballer has not surpassed six strikeouts in any start this year after doing so eight times in 2013. Phillies veterans Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Carlos Ruiz are all hitting at least .300 against Dickey for their careers.
--KEY STAT: DICKEY is 7-0 OVER (+7.4 Units) in May games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was DICKEY 5.1, OPPONENT 7.0.
--DICKEY is 14-3 UNDER (+10.6 Units) when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was DICKEY 3.3, OPPONENT 3.2.
#915 COLORADO @ #916 TEXAS - 8:05 PM
•Rockies LH Franklin Morales (3-1, 5.05 ERA, WHIP: 1.513) - Morales allowed six runs (five earned) and nine hits but hung in there for five crucial innings as Colorado rallied from a six-run deficit to defeat the New York Mets 11-10 on Saturday. “I couldn’t go to the bullpen any earlier than I did,” manager Walt Weiss told the Denver Post. “... Because Frankie battled through a night when he didn’t have good stuff, it ended up winning the game … Frankie took it upon himself to battle through that outing.” The 28-year-old Venezuelan, who won his last two turns on the road, makes his first start against the Rangers after allowing seven runs (six earned) in six relief appearances totaling six innings against them.
--KEY STAT: MORALES is 10-1 (+9.9 Units) against the money line versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was MORALES 6.0, OPPONENT 3.5.
--MORALES is 16-2 OVER (+14.1 Units) when the total is 8.5 to 10 since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was MORALES 6.8, OPPONENT 5.8.
•Rangers LH Matt Harrison (0-0, 4.35 ERA, WHIP: 1.742) - Harrison allowed three runs and 10 hits while walking three and striking out three in 4 1/3 innings of the Rangers' 5-3 loss at Anaheim on Saturday. “Overall, it was a rough night,” Harrison told the Fort Worth Star Telegram. “It wasn’t something I wanted to go out there and do and kill the bullpen. I put myself in a situation where I had to make perfect pitches, and it just wasn’t happening. Luckily, I got out of there without allowing 10 runs.” Harrison, who is 5-2 with a 2.49 ERA in 14 interleague games (10 starts), defeated Colorado 4-2 on June 24, 2012, when he pitched five scoreless innings in his only outing against the Rockies.
#917 CHICAGO CUBS @ #918 CHI WHITE SOX - 8:10 PM
•Cubs RH Jake Arrieta (0-0, 0.00 ERA, WHIP: 1.126) - Arrieta was solid in his season debut Saturday against St. Louis, striking out seven and allowing four hits over 5 1/3 scoreless innings. The 28-year-old was limited to 85 pitches in his first start after beginning the season on the disabled list with shoulder tightness. Arrieta is 1-1 with a 5.17 ERA in three outings against the White Sox, most recently in 2012.
--KEY STAT: ARRIETA is 19-6 OVER (+12.8 Units) versus an American League team with a team batting average of .265 or worse since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was ARRIETA 6.4, OPPONENT 5.0.
--ARRIETA is 18-4 OVER (+14.0 Units) versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was ARRIETA 6.4, OPPONENT 5.2.
•White Sox RH Scott Carroll (1-1, 0.68 ERA, WHIP: 1.050) - Carroll has been a pleasant surprise for the White Sox in his first two starts, allowing just one earned run (four total) over 13 1/3 innings. The 29-year-old rookie took a tough-luck loss last time out, giving up a pair of unearned runs over six frames in a 2-0 loss at Cleveland. Keeping it up might be a bit much for the White Sox to ask - he's 27-38 with a 3.95 ERA in eight seasons in the minors.
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