indiancowboy
4 Unit Play. #704. Take the Washington Wizards +10.5 over the Cleveland Cavs (Thursday @ 8pm). We are rolling along in the NBA as we have won 6 of 7 (6-1) in that stretch as we look to post a great April. It is no secret that these two teams hate each other. From the hard fouls of Haywood, to Deshawn Stevenson and Lebron having words, to the playoffs when these two teams met, these teams freaking hate each other. Washington actually beat this team by 3 the last time they played at home. We remember that game as we took Washington in that contest. The last 3 of 4 in this series has gone under and Wash has covered the last 3 of 4 in this series as well. Arenas is expected to be back for this game as well as Songaila as they are looking forward to this game. Washington played much better at home of late beating the Kings, losing to the Pistons by 2 (covering the spread), beating Charlotte by a bucket outright at home and losing to Chicago by 2 points at home as well. The wrench in this equation is Arenas as I think the Wiz play better without him the majority of the time, nevertheless, as a dog player, it is tough to ignore the Wiz here catching the 10.5. Who knows, prior to game time it could be even higher. We get the Underdog today, at home, who although does not have revenge as Cleveland does, still will look to play their best basketball as they are 3-1 ATS against this team the last 4 games and have covered both games against the Cavs this year. This is the biggest public play on the board with Cleveland and we are going against that. The Wiz have done well against the Pistons, Bulls, Bobcats and Pacers at home as Crittenton, Butler and Jamison are getting it done. For this game, Arenas and Songaila are both expected to be back. Arenas remember got his feet a bit wet in a game prior to this as he really wants to step for his team in this game - hopefully he doesn't ruin their chemistry. Nevertheless, with the total moving up by 5 points, this makes me think that the dog will be active today and I will ride the Wiz at home. The Cavs are 2-6 ATS as big favorites of late, 3-7 ATS as favorites of late and Underdog is 5-0 ATS in this series of late as well.
4 Unit Play. Take Under 138 between Baylor Bears & Penn State (Thursday @ 10pm est). If you wait a bit for this line, it might get up to 139 prior to game time as the public money comes in. I favor the Under here for several reasons as I have tracked these two teams through the NIT and this is why I took the Under between Notre Dame and Penn State the other day. Give both of these schools credit for making it this far. The bottom line here is you have a very good Penn State defense facing a very good Baylor offense. This is the NIT Championship of course. Baylor has consistently put up 70+ points in this NIT tournament including 74 against Georgetown, 84 against Virginia Tech, 74 against Auburn, 76 against San Diego State and now facing a Baylor team who they will likely put up 70+ as well. The last total closed at 138 as Baylor and San Diego State's final score was 76-62. What's impressive is that San Diego State was a top 40 team coming into that game and Baylor handled them with relative ease. What's interesting is that for Penn State to win this game, it needs to go Under. After all, when they won at Florida with their stifling defense, they won 71-62 (133) and beat Notre Dame 67-59 (126). Baylor has hit its stride late into the tournament but remember this team has had the goods to beat Arizona State, Providence and win the Big 12 Championship. For starters, I think that Penn State is a better defensive team than San Diego State so I do not expect Baylor to put up 76 points in this game. Penn State loves to control the pace of a game and that is why this team held Notre Dame to 59 points who is from the Big East (although ND was playing a ton of unders the last 11 or so games in the season) and held Florida to 62 points in Florida. So, Penn State will want to play a slower paced, and will provide plenty of defensive intensity. What else would you expect from a Big 10 team? I expect Baylor to try to speed it up, but let's not forget that Baylor is 10-2 to the Under when they face winning teams of 60% or more meaning they are not able to get up their shots as easy or run their offense as smoothly. I do not believe this game will be "reffed" tightly as they will let both teams be agressive on defense. The Underi s 4-1 for the Nittany Lions on neutral sites as well. I have this game at 133 in my calculations, so I will take the 5 point edge here for the Under overall.