Andre Gomes | NBA Sides
dime bet
706 DEN -4.0 (-110) BetUS vs 705 UTA
Analysis: The Northwest division is in a wild race between Denver, Utah and Portland. These 3 teams have similar records and the pattern between them is that they can't win on the road. The Jazz, Nuggets and the Blazers are 19-0 SU at home against Northwest opponents and for this game I doubt that the Jazz can stop this trend.
The Jazz were spanked last game in Portland by 104-125 and they never were in the game. I remember that the Jazz was playing a back to back game, as they faced the Knicks in the previous day, so we might consider that it was a bad spot for them. However the Jazz simply struggle playing away from Salt Lake City no matter the circumstances. In fact they are 3-8 ATS & 1-10 SU as road underdogs against Western teams and it's important to say that the only win was in Memphis (they were shorthanded, so they were dogs) so technically speaking they are still winless on the road against Western top caliber teams. Why they can't compete on the road? The answer is pretty simple: they can't protect the paint and they are systematically outmuscled by their opponents. Despite having Carlos Boozer and Andrei Kirilenko available, the Jazz was outscored in the paint 38-50 by the Blazers. A deep look to the stats and the Jazz are ranked just 25th in points in the paint allowed per game allowing 42.4 ppg. Only the Thunder, Clippers, Kings, Knicks and the Warriors have worse numbers!! For some reason since the New Year, they are 0-7 ATS in those games.
The Nuggets meanwhile are rolling right now. They are 9-1 in their last 10 games and all pieces are falling together (Carmelo Anthony is heating up averaging 30.9 points in his last seven games). After a bad stretch the Nuggets showed some mental toughness winning back to back games on the road in New Orleans and in Dallas. The Jazz lead the series by 2-1 and this game will clinch the series, so this is an important game for Denver, as they don't want to lose the tiebreaker. Curiously the Nuggets are 3-0 ATS in those games and in the last game in Utah (already in March), the Nuggets were pretty competitive. They played in the previous night at home against the Blazers and the Jazz were in the middle of the best stretch of the season. Despite that the Nuggets led the game by 10 points at the halftime (47-37), they ran out of gas in the second half, feeling the effect of a back to back game.
I expect the Nuggets to roll tonight. They are playing better basketball right now and they won't have any kind of mercy of the Jazz. The spread is relatively short for this game. In the first three games between these teams the line was 8, 8 and 9.5 points, so having the chance to grab 4 points is a big deal for us. Take the Nuggets in here.