Derek Mancini
Today's Winner...
15 Dime play on the 49ers plus the points over the Chargers. As of this writing, San Francicsco is listed as a 9 1/2 point underdog (with a few 10's still avadlable). Go ahead and buy the 1/2 point insurance at anywhere from +9 1/2 to +10.
Sorry guys, but this one is too obvious. Clearly, oddsmakers know the public was going to bet San Diego no matter what in this contest. Bettors have grown extremely hesitant to trust anything San Francisco does, and therefore despite an impresaive win over Seattle last week, no one is buying it. Well, I am.
Truth is the Niners are a better team with Alex Smith under center, whether you want to believe it or not. He gives the offense a chance to move the chains and is far more accurate than Troy Smith (59% to 52%). Not only that, but he loves to get Vernon Davis involved, and despite a slow game last week, he does have a solid racpport with Crabtree - both of which will be needed to get the cover here.
I'm well aware of the fact that the Niners beat up on a terrible Seattle pass defense last week, and now face the best pass defense in the league. But before you go assuming that San Diego is going to dominate here, consider how well their supposed # 1 unit fared against Jason Campbell and the Raiders in Week 13. Sure, Campbell only attempted 16 passes, but he completed 10 of them, incl. a TD (without a pick). You can't tell me Campbell is any better than Smith. My point is stats can be very deceiving, and the Chargers are the epitomy of that statemement, having the # 1 units on both sides of the ball for most of the year, and yet posting a 7-6 record.
The last two things to consider are the fact that both teams are vying for a podsible playoff spot. I know its hard to believe, but people forget the Niners can still make the playoffs in a terrible NFC West. In other words, San Diego isn't the only team in this game with something to play for. Not only that, but if we've learned anything about the Bolts, its that they're vulnerable against the run. While the Westbrook/Dixon combo is no Gore, its has proven at the very least, serviceable. All things considered, the 49ers are a solid play to keep this game within the number. San Francisco plus the points (remember to buy the 1/2 point as instructed above) over San Diego Thursday.