Mike Lineback 11/19
Premium Selections
[306] 4* Carolina Panthers -3 -125 | 8:20p ET
Both teams' run and defend the run well but will will give edge to Carolina with Miami's best running Ronnie Brown out for season. Brown loss is key because he has been central to Dolphins success in The "Wildcat" formation. Strongly believe Miami will miss him tonight. Also, will give Carolina considerable edge in passing game. Panthers, have more playmakers with veteran wideouts Muhsin Muhammad & Steve Smith & DeAngelo Williams coming out of the backfield. Plus, Delhomme, more than capable, of having a "monster" game. Delhomme, is playing more under control and will be facing the #27 pass defense in league, spearheaded by two rookie cornerbacks?? Miami pass D among league leaders in giving up big plays. They have allowed, 32 plays of 20+ yds & 9 plays over 40+ yds. Don't be suprised if Smith, way overdue, has one of his patented dominating performances. If not, at least make enough plays to set up some valuable points. On the flip side, Carolina defend the pass well. The 4th best pass defense, were particularly impressive in pass coverage vs. Atlanta last week. With Brown out, Miami inexperienced QB Henne should have hard time finding anything open downfield. Both Camarillo & Ginn Jr. lack the skills to stretch the field & make consistent plays to move the chains. Will give slight edge to Miami in special teams' but hoping Carolina homefield will neutralize any Dolphins advantage. Only "wildcat" for Carolina is Jake Delhomme. However, predicting big game from Delhomme under the Thursday night lights. If not, logic says, Carolina still have enough edges to get the cover on their home turf.
Premium Selections
[306] 4* Carolina Panthers -3 -125 | 8:20p ET
Both teams' run and defend the run well but will will give edge to Carolina with Miami's best running Ronnie Brown out for season. Brown loss is key because he has been central to Dolphins success in The "Wildcat" formation. Strongly believe Miami will miss him tonight. Also, will give Carolina considerable edge in passing game. Panthers, have more playmakers with veteran wideouts Muhsin Muhammad & Steve Smith & DeAngelo Williams coming out of the backfield. Plus, Delhomme, more than capable, of having a "monster" game. Delhomme, is playing more under control and will be facing the #27 pass defense in league, spearheaded by two rookie cornerbacks?? Miami pass D among league leaders in giving up big plays. They have allowed, 32 plays of 20+ yds & 9 plays over 40+ yds. Don't be suprised if Smith, way overdue, has one of his patented dominating performances. If not, at least make enough plays to set up some valuable points. On the flip side, Carolina defend the pass well. The 4th best pass defense, were particularly impressive in pass coverage vs. Atlanta last week. With Brown out, Miami inexperienced QB Henne should have hard time finding anything open downfield. Both Camarillo & Ginn Jr. lack the skills to stretch the field & make consistent plays to move the chains. Will give slight edge to Miami in special teams' but hoping Carolina homefield will neutralize any Dolphins advantage. Only "wildcat" for Carolina is Jake Delhomme. However, predicting big game from Delhomme under the Thursday night lights. If not, logic says, Carolina still have enough edges to get the cover on their home turf.
Diceituponline - Hammer's NHL "5 Game Blowout!"
Hammer's NHL Picks (11/19)
Lots of Action Tonight!
10 Dimes: Atlanta Thrashers -115
10 Dimes: Pittsburgh Penguins +100
10 Dimes: Phoenix Coyotes +155
10 Dimes: Chicago/Calgary Over 5.5 +105
10 Dimes: Tampa Bay/Anaheim Over 5.5 +100
NFL Picks (week 11)
Thursday Night Action
10 Dimes: Miami Dolphins +3.5
Hammer's NHL Picks (11/19)
Lots of Action Tonight!
10 Dimes: Atlanta Thrashers -115
10 Dimes: Pittsburgh Penguins +100
10 Dimes: Phoenix Coyotes +155
10 Dimes: Chicago/Calgary Over 5.5 +105
10 Dimes: Tampa Bay/Anaheim Over 5.5 +100
NFL Picks (week 11)
Thursday Night Action
10 Dimes: Miami Dolphins +3.5
Stan Sharp | NFL Side Thu, 11/19/09 - 8:20 PM È„
double-dime bet 305 MIA 3.0 (-110) BetUS vs 306 CAR
Analysis: Stan is Betting MIAMI. Stan notes that even though Miami has some injuries the sharp money in this game has been coming in on Miami as the public is betting Carolina but yet the line is down to 3. That's a strong indicator that the Big Boys are betting Miami and Stan is one of those Big Boys doing the betting. Stan has Miami winning outright. TAKE MIAMI as STAN'S COLLEGE FOOTBALL WISE GUY GAME and make them a DOUBLE DIME PLAY.
double-dime bet 305 MIA 3.0 (-110) BetUS vs 306 CAR
Analysis: Stan is Betting MIAMI. Stan notes that even though Miami has some injuries the sharp money in this game has been coming in on Miami as the public is betting Carolina but yet the line is down to 3. That's a strong indicator that the Big Boys are betting Miami and Stan is one of those Big Boys doing the betting. Stan has Miami winning outright. TAKE MIAMI as STAN'S COLLEGE FOOTBALL WISE GUY GAME and make them a DOUBLE DIME PLAY.
Antony Dinero
Dolphins at Panthers
Pick: Under 43.5
Without Ronnie Brown, expect the Dolphins ability to pound away with Ricky Williams to be compromised by the lack of an element of surprise in the wildcat. An athletic front seven and speedy corners should be able to hold contain, and so long as the special teams unit keeps Ted Ginn from impacting the game on that end, Carolina can ride DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart and a conservative passing game to a much-needed home win. Back the Panthers and the under.
Dolphins at Panthers
Pick: Under 43.5
Without Ronnie Brown, expect the Dolphins ability to pound away with Ricky Williams to be compromised by the lack of an element of surprise in the wildcat. An athletic front seven and speedy corners should be able to hold contain, and so long as the special teams unit keeps Ted Ginn from impacting the game on that end, Carolina can ride DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart and a conservative passing game to a much-needed home win. Back the Panthers and the under.
this guy is 14-13 since I started posting him. if he dont win tonight, Im done. (not that anyone cares)
Today's Picks by Natural Born Thriller
<table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr> <th class="bl" colspan="5" align="left">CB</th> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#999999" height="1"> <td colspan="5" height="1">
</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#000066"> <th>Game Time</th> <th>Game</th> <th>Pick</th> <th>Bet</th> <th>Analysis</th> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td align="center">Thursday, 11/19/2009</td> <td align="center">Indiana U</td> <td rowspan="2" align="center"> Indiana U (S: 10.5) </td> <td rowspan="2" align="center">5</td> <td rowspan="2" align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td align="center">5:00pm EST</td> <td align="center">Mississippi</td></tr></tbody></table>
Today's Picks by Natural Born Thriller
<table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr> <th class="bl" colspan="5" align="left">CB</th> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#999999" height="1"> <td colspan="5" height="1">
</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#000066"> <th>Game Time</th> <th>Game</th> <th>Pick</th> <th>Bet</th> <th>Analysis</th> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td align="center">Thursday, 11/19/2009</td> <td align="center">Indiana U</td> <td rowspan="2" align="center"> Indiana U (S: 10.5) </td> <td rowspan="2" align="center">5</td> <td rowspan="2" align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td align="center">5:00pm EST</td> <td align="center">Mississippi</td></tr></tbody></table>
James Patrick Sports
5* Pot of Gold
Blackhawks vs. Flames
Play: Calgary Flames
In an effort to restore dominance to the Flames defense, GM Daryll Sutter hired his brother Brent away from the New Jersey Devils. Together the Sutter Brothers will turn Calgary into a top Stanley Cup contender from the Western Conference. Chicago put out the Flames in last season’s playoffs and again in their first meeting this season. We look for the Flames to make a statement on their home ice with a convincing win this time out.
5* Pot of Gold
Blackhawks vs. Flames
Play: Calgary Flames
In an effort to restore dominance to the Flames defense, GM Daryll Sutter hired his brother Brent away from the New Jersey Devils. Together the Sutter Brothers will turn Calgary into a top Stanley Cup contender from the Western Conference. Chicago put out the Flames in last season’s playoffs and again in their first meeting this season. We look for the Flames to make a statement on their home ice with a convincing win this time out.
SAM CLAYTON
NORTH CAROLINA VS OHIO STATE
Madison Square Garden, NYC
Finally, the defending national champions have their first real test of the season after dismantling Florida International, North Carolina Central and Valparaiso. Yawn. Ohio State is an entirely different monster, however, and they are without question a definite threat to knock off the Tar Heels at the Garden. The Buckeyes are a very strong defensive team that possesses tons of length and athleticism. And while Ohio State's frontcourt doesn't hold a candle talent-wise in comparison to North Carolina, OSU does have a shot-blocking anchor in Dallas Lauderdale (one of the nation's top rejectors) and a big 7-footer in Zisis Sarikopolous, a transfer from UAB. Along with senior center Kyle Madsen, the three OSU bigs will be responsible for containing Deon Thompson, Ed Davis and Tyler Zeller. Thompson is infamous for disappearing in the second half, and Davis and Zeller have been known to shy away from physicality. Thad Matta needs to have his bigs motivated and ready to play the aggressor against the Heels. And should Matta decide to come out playing zone (which I would highly suggest), it would give the Buckeyes a much better chance to crash the boards and keep Carolina off the offensive glass.
Still, the decisive factor for tonight's contest is going to be the guard play, where I give an unquestionable advantage to the Buckeyes because of All-American in-the-making Evan Turner. The former St. Joe's standout is one of the most versatile players in the nation and he's one hell of an assignment for any opposing defender. Marcus Ginyard should draw the task although it's not just about keeping Turner off the scoreboard, it's about shutting down his drives and slashes, and keeping him off the offensive glass. Unselfish as can be, Turner is downright dangerous off the dribble and his awareness and ability to find the open man is uncanny. He also has three inches on Ginyard, which would give Evan a definite advantage in the post-up game. Turner will look to find sweet-shooting Jon Diebler roaming the perimeter (42% 3PT last year) and combo-guard William Buford, who should have no problem working on the much shorter and weaker Larry Drew II. Speaking of Drew, he'll also be bringing up the ball for Carolina and he's been far from spectacular. In fact, North Carolina has turned the ball over 12 times a game (against terrible competition) as opposed to Ohio State's 7.5 -- the assist/turnover ratios are 1.5/1 and 2.8/1 respectively. If the Buckeyes turn up the pressure on Ginyard and the panicky Drew, the floodgates could open wide for easy buckets in transition.
The oddsmakers have set a very compact line for this game and they believe that the Buckeyes will push North Carolina to the limit. I definitely agree and could easily see this one coming down to the final shot ... which would put us in a great position to cover regardless of which team finds the bottom of the net. Nonetheless, I'm banking on the bigger and longer backcourt to deliver as Turner, Diebler and Buford prove to be too much for Carolina's guards to handle. If Thad Matta sticks with a zone scheme and the Buckeyes hedge inside the three-point line and between the low block, things could get very interesting. The Tar Heels have the definite advantage in the low post, so Ohio State will make Carolina's guards make plays. And with how poorly the UNC backcourt has been shooting, I like our chances.
PICK: Ohio State +2.5 - 25 dimes
SYRACUSE VS CALIFORNIA
Madison Square Garden, NYC
Despite the fact that this is practically a home game for the Orange (given their familiarity and proximity to the Garden), I still like Cal to bring home the 'W.' The Golden Bears are an experience-driven team that returns four senior starters -- last year's top four scorers -- most notably in the backcourt. Jerome Randle and Patrick Christopher are two of the smartest guards in the country and it's hard for me to find another tandem that's as well-rounded as they are. Randle is the ultimate playmaker, as he's able to slash to the basket and open up the floor with dribble penetration. He also shoots the deep ball remarkably well (46% last season) and has the luxury of squaring off against Cuse freshman Brandon Triche. When Randle beats his man off the dribble, he'll have Christopher (36% 3PT) and Theo Robertson (49% 3PT) on the wings and they are more than capable of capitalizing on broken coverage.
I like this matchup for the Bears because of their definite quickness edge and their ability to draw the Syracuse big men away from the basket. Arinze Onuaku and Rick Jackson are solid players, yes, but their main operative is camping on the low block on defense. They'll have their hands full trying to slow down athletes like Robertson and Jamal Boykin. As far as offense goes, Cuse's frontcourt likes to play physical and outmuscle weaker defenders. This is where Markhuri Sanders-Frison, Cal's most important newcomer, comes into play. The Juco is an absolute bull in the paint (6-7, 275) and he's the brute strength yin to his teammates' agile yang. And don't let Cuse's two blowout wins against below-average competition fool you, this team's stock has dropped drastically since last season. Jimmy Boeheim lost more than half of his scoring (Johnny Flynn, Eric Devendorf and Paul Harris), and I don't trust the erraticism of Andy Rautins or the inexperience of Triche.
The only reason this line is near pick-em status is because it's being played approximately 3,000 miles away from Berkeley. Still, with all the experience and leadership that Cal brings to the table, I think they'll be fine. This team isn't scared of a dogfight and they aren't going to be phased by a long travel itinerary. Mike Montgomery will have the Bears prepared to attack whatever defense Boeheim throws out and for Jimmy's sake, it better not be the 2-3 zone that failed miserably against Oklahoma in the tourney. Too much team speed and quickness for Cal as the prodding Syracuse big men find themselves in foul trouble trying to keep up with the much quicker and more elusive Bears.
PICK: California PK - 15 dimes
NORTH CAROLINA VS OHIO STATE
Madison Square Garden, NYC
Finally, the defending national champions have their first real test of the season after dismantling Florida International, North Carolina Central and Valparaiso. Yawn. Ohio State is an entirely different monster, however, and they are without question a definite threat to knock off the Tar Heels at the Garden. The Buckeyes are a very strong defensive team that possesses tons of length and athleticism. And while Ohio State's frontcourt doesn't hold a candle talent-wise in comparison to North Carolina, OSU does have a shot-blocking anchor in Dallas Lauderdale (one of the nation's top rejectors) and a big 7-footer in Zisis Sarikopolous, a transfer from UAB. Along with senior center Kyle Madsen, the three OSU bigs will be responsible for containing Deon Thompson, Ed Davis and Tyler Zeller. Thompson is infamous for disappearing in the second half, and Davis and Zeller have been known to shy away from physicality. Thad Matta needs to have his bigs motivated and ready to play the aggressor against the Heels. And should Matta decide to come out playing zone (which I would highly suggest), it would give the Buckeyes a much better chance to crash the boards and keep Carolina off the offensive glass.
Still, the decisive factor for tonight's contest is going to be the guard play, where I give an unquestionable advantage to the Buckeyes because of All-American in-the-making Evan Turner. The former St. Joe's standout is one of the most versatile players in the nation and he's one hell of an assignment for any opposing defender. Marcus Ginyard should draw the task although it's not just about keeping Turner off the scoreboard, it's about shutting down his drives and slashes, and keeping him off the offensive glass. Unselfish as can be, Turner is downright dangerous off the dribble and his awareness and ability to find the open man is uncanny. He also has three inches on Ginyard, which would give Evan a definite advantage in the post-up game. Turner will look to find sweet-shooting Jon Diebler roaming the perimeter (42% 3PT last year) and combo-guard William Buford, who should have no problem working on the much shorter and weaker Larry Drew II. Speaking of Drew, he'll also be bringing up the ball for Carolina and he's been far from spectacular. In fact, North Carolina has turned the ball over 12 times a game (against terrible competition) as opposed to Ohio State's 7.5 -- the assist/turnover ratios are 1.5/1 and 2.8/1 respectively. If the Buckeyes turn up the pressure on Ginyard and the panicky Drew, the floodgates could open wide for easy buckets in transition.
The oddsmakers have set a very compact line for this game and they believe that the Buckeyes will push North Carolina to the limit. I definitely agree and could easily see this one coming down to the final shot ... which would put us in a great position to cover regardless of which team finds the bottom of the net. Nonetheless, I'm banking on the bigger and longer backcourt to deliver as Turner, Diebler and Buford prove to be too much for Carolina's guards to handle. If Thad Matta sticks with a zone scheme and the Buckeyes hedge inside the three-point line and between the low block, things could get very interesting. The Tar Heels have the definite advantage in the low post, so Ohio State will make Carolina's guards make plays. And with how poorly the UNC backcourt has been shooting, I like our chances.
PICK: Ohio State +2.5 - 25 dimes
SYRACUSE VS CALIFORNIA
Madison Square Garden, NYC
Despite the fact that this is practically a home game for the Orange (given their familiarity and proximity to the Garden), I still like Cal to bring home the 'W.' The Golden Bears are an experience-driven team that returns four senior starters -- last year's top four scorers -- most notably in the backcourt. Jerome Randle and Patrick Christopher are two of the smartest guards in the country and it's hard for me to find another tandem that's as well-rounded as they are. Randle is the ultimate playmaker, as he's able to slash to the basket and open up the floor with dribble penetration. He also shoots the deep ball remarkably well (46% last season) and has the luxury of squaring off against Cuse freshman Brandon Triche. When Randle beats his man off the dribble, he'll have Christopher (36% 3PT) and Theo Robertson (49% 3PT) on the wings and they are more than capable of capitalizing on broken coverage.
I like this matchup for the Bears because of their definite quickness edge and their ability to draw the Syracuse big men away from the basket. Arinze Onuaku and Rick Jackson are solid players, yes, but their main operative is camping on the low block on defense. They'll have their hands full trying to slow down athletes like Robertson and Jamal Boykin. As far as offense goes, Cuse's frontcourt likes to play physical and outmuscle weaker defenders. This is where Markhuri Sanders-Frison, Cal's most important newcomer, comes into play. The Juco is an absolute bull in the paint (6-7, 275) and he's the brute strength yin to his teammates' agile yang. And don't let Cuse's two blowout wins against below-average competition fool you, this team's stock has dropped drastically since last season. Jimmy Boeheim lost more than half of his scoring (Johnny Flynn, Eric Devendorf and Paul Harris), and I don't trust the erraticism of Andy Rautins or the inexperience of Triche.
The only reason this line is near pick-em status is because it's being played approximately 3,000 miles away from Berkeley. Still, with all the experience and leadership that Cal brings to the table, I think they'll be fine. This team isn't scared of a dogfight and they aren't going to be phased by a long travel itinerary. Mike Montgomery will have the Bears prepared to attack whatever defense Boeheim throws out and for Jimmy's sake, it better not be the 2-3 zone that failed miserably against Oklahoma in the tourney. Too much team speed and quickness for Cal as the prodding Syracuse big men find themselves in foul trouble trying to keep up with the much quicker and more elusive Bears.
PICK: California PK - 15 dimes
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
Bulls/Lakers UNDER 192
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this matchup is on the "under":
Pao Gasol is expected to make his season debut Thursday night as the Lakers continue their five-game homestand against the Chicago Bulls, who opened their lengthy circus road trip with an impressive win.
Chicago beat the Kings 101-87 on Tuesday.
They hadn't scored more than 94 points in the first nine games of the season. They also improved their league-worst 3-point percentage by hitting 7 of 12 attempts against the Kings; I expect a letdown this evening and to return to their previous poor play.
Keep in mind that the total has gone under the posted number in seven of Chicago's last eight overall and in four of its last five on the road. Chicago has also seen the total go under the number in five of six games as an underdog.
On the other side of the court: The Lakers won their last time out behind a big effort from Kobe Bryant who scored 40 in their 106-93 victory over Detroit.
The Lakers have been held to 83.3 points per game in their three losses and especially struggled in the second half of their recent two-game rut, averaging 30.0 points in the final 24 minutes.
The total has gone under the posted number in 11 of the Lakers last 15 at the Staples Center and in 9 of the last 11 games vs. the Bulls.
Bottom line: Gasol is going to need a game or two to get "up to speed"; I look for Chicago to slide back to mediocrity on the offensive side and when taking into account these strong O/U trends, I believe we're getting excellent value on the UNDER!
*8* UNDER.[/FONT]
Bulls/Lakers UNDER 192
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this matchup is on the "under":
Pao Gasol is expected to make his season debut Thursday night as the Lakers continue their five-game homestand against the Chicago Bulls, who opened their lengthy circus road trip with an impressive win.
Chicago beat the Kings 101-87 on Tuesday.
They hadn't scored more than 94 points in the first nine games of the season. They also improved their league-worst 3-point percentage by hitting 7 of 12 attempts against the Kings; I expect a letdown this evening and to return to their previous poor play.
Keep in mind that the total has gone under the posted number in seven of Chicago's last eight overall and in four of its last five on the road. Chicago has also seen the total go under the number in five of six games as an underdog.
On the other side of the court: The Lakers won their last time out behind a big effort from Kobe Bryant who scored 40 in their 106-93 victory over Detroit.
The Lakers have been held to 83.3 points per game in their three losses and especially struggled in the second half of their recent two-game rut, averaging 30.0 points in the final 24 minutes.
The total has gone under the posted number in 11 of the Lakers last 15 at the Staples Center and in 9 of the last 11 games vs. the Bulls.
Bottom line: Gasol is going to need a game or two to get "up to speed"; I look for Chicago to slide back to mediocrity on the offensive side and when taking into account these strong O/U trends, I believe we're getting excellent value on the UNDER!
*8* UNDER.[/FONT]
Ron Raymond
Colorado/Oklahoma St OVER 47.5
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]When ANY NCAAF Team played as Home team as a Favorite - Last 4 years - Playing on artificial surface - Coming off a win on artificial - Coming off 2 unders; the OVER is 15-6-1 for the home fave (OKST) in this role L4Y.
My ATS Calculator has the total on this game landing on 50.64 points and my PVI rating on this game going over is 54%.
Take the OVER.[/FONT]
Colorado/Oklahoma St OVER 47.5
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]When ANY NCAAF Team played as Home team as a Favorite - Last 4 years - Playing on artificial surface - Coming off a win on artificial - Coming off 2 unders; the OVER is 15-6-1 for the home fave (OKST) in this role L4Y.
My ATS Calculator has the total on this game landing on 50.64 points and my PVI rating on this game going over is 54%.
Take the OVER.[/FONT]
