Stephen Nover
Thursday night ...
15 Dime PANTHERS
5 Dime UNDER Dolphins/Panthers
NOTE: I promised a strong performance following losses on my top Sunday NFL plays and so far I'm a perfect 5-0 this week.
I'm involved today in the Dolphins-Panthers matchup, both on the side and total, although I do not recommend a parlay. I'm passing on the Colorado-Oklahoma State matchup , but have a free selection on the Bulls-Lakers.
Now, on this Panthers game, I notice the moneyline is climbing if you lay -3 points. Tells me it could go to 3-1/2. In the event your book has a 3-1/2, buyy the hook down to a field goal. DON'T GET BEAT BY THE HOOK.
15 Dime PANTHERS - The timing is right for Carolina in this matchup. The Panthers have more talent than the Dolphins, are rounding into shape having won and covered four of their last six games and catch Miami in a bad situational spot.
The Dolphins have had a rough last four weeks. They blew a 24-10 lead at home four weeks in a loss to the Saints. They then split division road games beating the Jets and losing to the Patriots. Then last week they had to come from behind to edge Tampa Bay with 10 seconds left.
The victory against the Bucs, though, was costly for the Dolphins. Ronnie Brown is out. That not only takes away Miami's best runner, but also the key player in its wildcat formation. The early turnaround limits Miami's preparation to formulate a good game plan minus Brown.
Quarterback Chad Henne isn't advanced enough at this early juncture of his career to make enough downfield plays to overcome Brown's loss. Next to the Cleveland Browns, the Dolphins might have the worst set of wide receivers in the league.
Carolina ranks 12th in total defense and has the fourth-best pass defense. The Panthers have held six of their last seven foes to 21 or fewer points.
Carolina's problem for much of the season has been the terrible play and turnovers of Jake Delhomme, who has thrown 13 interceptions. But Delhomme has become more of a game manager handing the ball off to DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. This is one of the better running back tandems in the NFL. Delhomme has finally figured out not to get in their way.
The Panthers have rushed for 270, 182 and 185 yards in their last three games and Delhomme hasn't thrown an interception during this span while tossing three touchdowns. Delhomme will be able to pick his spots against a youthful Dolphins secondary as the Panthers bash the Dolphins with their third-ranked ground attack.
5 Dime UNDER Dolphins/Panthers - This is a matchup featuring two ground-oriented clubs with two conservative coaches.
Dolphins coach Tony Sparano does not want to take chances with his young quarterback, Chad Henne, nor does Carolina coach John Fox want to risk an interception with his turnover-prone quarterback, Jake Delhomme. Henne only has two touchdown passes in the last four games.
The Dolphins are without their best weapon, running back Ronnie Brown. That makes their wildcat formation much easier to defend. The short practice week makes it difficult to adjust without Brown and limits any tricks or new plays.
Carolina suffered a key offensive injury, too, last week. Out is star left tackle Jordan Gross. He was the Panthers' best offensive lineman. Pass rushing star Joey Porter is back for Miami. He can take advantage of Gross' absence to wreak havoc.
The Saints were the Panthers' only opponent to score more than 21 points in the last seven games against them.
I see the Dolphins feeding Ricky Williams the ball 35 times while Carolina also has a lopsided margin of running plays compared to passes. That means the clock keeps moving and this total stays under.
Confirmed.
GL!