Indianapolis Colts(3-2) at Houston Texans(3-2)
Colts: -2.5
O/U: 46.5
THURSDAY NIGHT PRIME TIME:
FAVOR has win 4 of its last 5 games
DOG has win 1 of its last 5 games
OVER games has been 4 (over 50 points)
UNDER games has been 1 (under 33 points)
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS has a winning streak of 3 ...defeat the Baltimore Ravens last week by 7 points at BALTIMORE
HOUSTON TEXANS lost last week vs Dallas Cowboys by 3 points at DALLAS
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS has covered 4 of its last 5 games by 3-8 points but lost by a spread of 3 point vs PHL
HOUSTON TEXANS has covered 4 of its last 5 games by 3-5 points but lost by a spread of 1 point vs NYG
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: AWAY record (1-1) HOME record (2-1)
HOUSTON TEXANS: AWAY record (1-2) HOME record (2-0)
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS has covered 2 out of 1 AWAY games
HOUSTON TEXANS has covered 2 games at HOME
Colts: -2.5
O/U: 46.5
THURSDAY NIGHT PRIME TIME:
FAVOR has win 4 of its last 5 games
DOG has win 1 of its last 5 games
OVER games has been 4 (over 50 points)
UNDER games has been 1 (under 33 points)
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS has a winning streak of 3 ...defeat the Baltimore Ravens last week by 7 points at BALTIMORE
HOUSTON TEXANS lost last week vs Dallas Cowboys by 3 points at DALLAS
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS has covered 4 of its last 5 games by 3-8 points but lost by a spread of 3 point vs PHL
HOUSTON TEXANS has covered 4 of its last 5 games by 3-5 points but lost by a spread of 1 point vs NYG
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: AWAY record (1-1) HOME record (2-1)
HOUSTON TEXANS: AWAY record (1-2) HOME record (2-0)
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS has covered 2 out of 1 AWAY games
HOUSTON TEXANS has covered 2 games at HOME
Wunderdog Sports
Complimentary NHL Pick for October 9th, 2014
Game: Winnipeg Jets @ Arizona Coyotes
Time: Thursday 10/09 10:05 PM Eastern
Pick: Winnipeg +130 (moneyline) at 5Dimes
The Coyotes name may be changed, but this could be a long season in the desert as the owner has placed budget constraints on the team, and they did little to improve themselves. In fact, they may take a step back as Radim Vrbata and his 20 goals from last season have departed to Vancouver. The Jets have a bit more firepower here with four players that all reached the 20 goal mark last season are returning. Mike Ribeiro is also gone from a weak Arizona attack, making two of their top four scorers from last season gone for 2014-15. The Coyotes finished 1-7 last season, and that might be how they start in 2014-15. The Jets are 4-0 in the last four meetings, and should get off to a quick start and valued road win. Take Winnipeg.
Complimentary NHL Pick for October 9th, 2014
Game: Winnipeg Jets @ Arizona Coyotes
Time: Thursday 10/09 10:05 PM Eastern
Pick: Winnipeg +130 (moneyline) at 5Dimes
The Coyotes name may be changed, but this could be a long season in the desert as the owner has placed budget constraints on the team, and they did little to improve themselves. In fact, they may take a step back as Radim Vrbata and his 20 goals from last season have departed to Vancouver. The Jets have a bit more firepower here with four players that all reached the 20 goal mark last season are returning. Mike Ribeiro is also gone from a weak Arizona attack, making two of their top four scorers from last season gone for 2014-15. The Coyotes finished 1-7 last season, and that might be how they start in 2014-15. The Jets are 4-0 in the last four meetings, and should get off to a quick start and valued road win. Take Winnipeg.
STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NCAAF REPORT
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 9th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_____________________________________
***** NCAA College Football Information – Week #7 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 NCAA College Football season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of StatSystems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
___________________________________________________________
#103 BYU @ #104 UCF
TV: 7:30 PM EST, ESPN
Line: UCF -3.5, Total: 47.5
Brigham Young’s hopes of an undefeated season and a major bowl bid likely came crashing down about the same time it lost Heisman Trophy hopeful Taysom Hill for the season last weekend. The Cougars look to rally around replacement Christian Stewart on Thursday night at Central Florida as they try to rebound from their first loss. Hill, who had BYU off to its best start since 2008, was responsible for 326 yards of total offense per game and accounted for 13 total touchdowns through four contests.
However, Hill fractured his left leg late in the first half of the Cougars’ 35-20 home loss to Utah State, which limited a Stewart-led offense to two second-half field goals and intercepted him three times. "It was a tough situation (to see) your best friend coming off the field hurt.... It's a terrible thing that Taysom went down, but if there's a guy that's ready to step up, it's me," Stewart told reporters after the loss. The Knights opened up American Athletic Conference play last Thursday with a 17-12 win at Houston as safety Brandon Alexander forced a game-saving fumble at the goal line with 24 seconds left to preserve the victory.
•ABOUT BRIGHAM YOUNG (4-1): Jamaal Williams became the first player other than Hill to pace BYU’s ground attack, rushing for 99 yards last week to move into sole possession of eighth place on the school’s all-time list (2,403). Mitch Mathews (career-high 135 yards) and Jordan Leslie (career-high 117) each exceeded 100 yards receiving against Utah State, becoming the first pair of BYU receivers to do so in the same game since Austin Collie and Michael Reed accomplished the feat in the 2008 Las Vegas Bowl. BYU recorded a season-high four giveaways against the Aggies and has committed multiple turnovers in four of its five games.
•ABOUT CENTRAL FLORIDA (2-2): J.J. Worton managed only one catch for nine yards versus Houston, but it was enough for him to become the 10th Knight to amass over 2,000 career receiving yards. Thomas Niles has posted a sack in each of Central Florida’s last five games and can become the first player in school history to notch one in six straight with another against BYU. In large part due to Niles and Jaryl Mamea, who became the 20th Central Florida player to register three sacks in a game last weekend, the Knights have collected 11 of their 14 sacks this season over the last two contests.
•PREGAME NOTES: Central Florida is one of only two schools in the country (Eastern Michigan) that has yet to play at least two home games.... BYU averages 10.6 penalties, the second-highest mark in FBS.... After allowing eight sacks in two losses to begin the season, the Knights have yielded only one over their two victories.... The Cougars also lost safety Dallin Leavitt, linebacker Alani Fua and offensive-guard Brayden Kearsley to second-half leg injuries against Utah State during Week #6.... BYU is 3-11 versus the spread after playing a game at home over the last three seasons.
Your Guide To Crushing The Books In NFL/NCAAF
With both the National Football League, and NCAA College Football regular seasons in full swing. Will you revert back to making questionable bets all season long and barely breaking even, if not losing money on the year? It's time you take control of your betting future and do it the right way. "Let the Experts here at StatSystems Sports guide you this season and help you crush the books like never before!"
Are you tired of those bad beats, the late back door covers which ruin your bet, along with the repeated mediocre or losing season? Well you've come to the right place and we are here to make sure that never happens again. Our team of Pro's are eagerly awaiting to smash the sportsbooks once again this year in both NFL and NCAAF.
"Why not join in on the profits with them and learn their secrets to success!"
•KEY STATS
--BYU is 28-47 ATS (-23.7 Units) versus mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game since 1992.
The average score was BYU 28.5, OPPONENT 25.9.
--BYU is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in road games after allowing 24 points or more in the first half last game since 1992.
The average score was BYU 21.8, OPPONENT 33.4.
--BYU is 1-12 against the 1rst half line (-12.2 Units) in road games after allowing 24 points or more in the first half last game since 1992.
The average score was BYU 9.4, OPPONENT 17.7.
--UCF is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UCF 41.9, OPPONENT 25.3.
--UCF is 7-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a road win over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UCF 42.0, OPPONENT 28.3.
--UCF is 21-8 UNDER (+12.2 Units) in home games versus poor passing defenses - allowing a completion percentage of 58% or worse since 1992.
The average score was UCF 28.3, OPPONENT 18.1.
--UCF is 29-14 UNDER (+13.6 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
The average score was UCF 25.0, OPPONENT 24.9.
--UCF is 11-1 against the 1rst half line (+9.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was UCF 18.9, OPPONENT 7.1.
--UCF is 7-0 against the 1rst half line (+7.0 Units) off a road win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was UCF 24.3, OPPONENT 12.6.
--UCF is 8-0 against the 1rst half line (+8.0 Units) in home games after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games since 1992.
The average score was UCF 19.4, OPPONENT 5.6.
•COACHING TRENDS
--BRONCO MENDENHALL is 20-8 UNDER (+11.2 Units) the 1rst half total in road games in the first half of the season as the coach of BYU.
The average score was BYU 11.9, OPPONENT 10.3.
--GEORGE O'LEARY is 27-11 ATS (+14.9 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest as the coach of UCF.
The average score was UCF 30.4, OPPONENT 20.1.
--GEORGE O'LEARY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after gaining 125 or less passing yards in last game as the coach of UCF.
The average score was UCF 27.0, OPPONENT 24.9.
--GEORGE O'LEARY is 32-15 ATS (+15.5 Units) off a road win in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was O'LEARY 31.8, OPPONENT 24.1.
--GEORGE O'LEARY is 22-11 OVER (+9.9 Units) in October games as the coach of UCF.
The average score was UCF 29.5, OPPONENT 26.6.
--GEORGE O'LEARY is 41-24 against the 1rst half line (+14.4 Units) after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers as the coach of UCF.
The average score was UCF 14.5, OPPONENT 11.9.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--BYU is 1-0 against the spread versus UCF since 1992.
--BYU is 1-0 straight up against UCF since 1992.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--UCF is 1-0 versus the first half line when playing against BYU since 1992.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
•RECENT TRENDS
--BYU is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games.
--BYU is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in October.
--Under is 5-0 in BYU last 5 Thursday games.
--UCF is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
--UCF is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
--Over is 13-4 in UCF last 17 games in October.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 55 times, while the favorite covered the spread 34 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 49 times, while the underdog won straight up 41 times. 26 games went over the total, while 13 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 49 times, while the favorite covered first half line 36 times. *No EDGE. 25 games went over first half total, while 13 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play On - Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (UCF) - an average defensive team (330 to 390 YPG) against an excellent offensive team (>=440 YPG), after allowing 14 points or less last game against opponent after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games.
(46-16 since 1992.) (74.2%, +28.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (55-8)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 6.8
The average score in these games was: Team 31.9, Opponent 19.3 (Average point differential = +12.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 29 (47.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (10-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (24-6).
________________________________________________
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 9th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_____________________________________
***** NCAA College Football Information – Week #7 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 NCAA College Football season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of StatSystems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
___________________________________________________________
#103 BYU @ #104 UCF
TV: 7:30 PM EST, ESPN
Line: UCF -3.5, Total: 47.5
Brigham Young’s hopes of an undefeated season and a major bowl bid likely came crashing down about the same time it lost Heisman Trophy hopeful Taysom Hill for the season last weekend. The Cougars look to rally around replacement Christian Stewart on Thursday night at Central Florida as they try to rebound from their first loss. Hill, who had BYU off to its best start since 2008, was responsible for 326 yards of total offense per game and accounted for 13 total touchdowns through four contests.
However, Hill fractured his left leg late in the first half of the Cougars’ 35-20 home loss to Utah State, which limited a Stewart-led offense to two second-half field goals and intercepted him three times. "It was a tough situation (to see) your best friend coming off the field hurt.... It's a terrible thing that Taysom went down, but if there's a guy that's ready to step up, it's me," Stewart told reporters after the loss. The Knights opened up American Athletic Conference play last Thursday with a 17-12 win at Houston as safety Brandon Alexander forced a game-saving fumble at the goal line with 24 seconds left to preserve the victory.
•ABOUT BRIGHAM YOUNG (4-1): Jamaal Williams became the first player other than Hill to pace BYU’s ground attack, rushing for 99 yards last week to move into sole possession of eighth place on the school’s all-time list (2,403). Mitch Mathews (career-high 135 yards) and Jordan Leslie (career-high 117) each exceeded 100 yards receiving against Utah State, becoming the first pair of BYU receivers to do so in the same game since Austin Collie and Michael Reed accomplished the feat in the 2008 Las Vegas Bowl. BYU recorded a season-high four giveaways against the Aggies and has committed multiple turnovers in four of its five games.
•ABOUT CENTRAL FLORIDA (2-2): J.J. Worton managed only one catch for nine yards versus Houston, but it was enough for him to become the 10th Knight to amass over 2,000 career receiving yards. Thomas Niles has posted a sack in each of Central Florida’s last five games and can become the first player in school history to notch one in six straight with another against BYU. In large part due to Niles and Jaryl Mamea, who became the 20th Central Florida player to register three sacks in a game last weekend, the Knights have collected 11 of their 14 sacks this season over the last two contests.
•PREGAME NOTES: Central Florida is one of only two schools in the country (Eastern Michigan) that has yet to play at least two home games.... BYU averages 10.6 penalties, the second-highest mark in FBS.... After allowing eight sacks in two losses to begin the season, the Knights have yielded only one over their two victories.... The Cougars also lost safety Dallin Leavitt, linebacker Alani Fua and offensive-guard Brayden Kearsley to second-half leg injuries against Utah State during Week #6.... BYU is 3-11 versus the spread after playing a game at home over the last three seasons.
Your Guide To Crushing The Books In NFL/NCAAF
With both the National Football League, and NCAA College Football regular seasons in full swing. Will you revert back to making questionable bets all season long and barely breaking even, if not losing money on the year? It's time you take control of your betting future and do it the right way. "Let the Experts here at StatSystems Sports guide you this season and help you crush the books like never before!"
Are you tired of those bad beats, the late back door covers which ruin your bet, along with the repeated mediocre or losing season? Well you've come to the right place and we are here to make sure that never happens again. Our team of Pro's are eagerly awaiting to smash the sportsbooks once again this year in both NFL and NCAAF.
"Why not join in on the profits with them and learn their secrets to success!"
•KEY STATS
--BYU is 28-47 ATS (-23.7 Units) versus mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game since 1992.
The average score was BYU 28.5, OPPONENT 25.9.
--BYU is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in road games after allowing 24 points or more in the first half last game since 1992.
The average score was BYU 21.8, OPPONENT 33.4.
--BYU is 1-12 against the 1rst half line (-12.2 Units) in road games after allowing 24 points or more in the first half last game since 1992.
The average score was BYU 9.4, OPPONENT 17.7.
--UCF is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UCF 41.9, OPPONENT 25.3.
--UCF is 7-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a road win over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UCF 42.0, OPPONENT 28.3.
--UCF is 21-8 UNDER (+12.2 Units) in home games versus poor passing defenses - allowing a completion percentage of 58% or worse since 1992.
The average score was UCF 28.3, OPPONENT 18.1.
--UCF is 29-14 UNDER (+13.6 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
The average score was UCF 25.0, OPPONENT 24.9.
--UCF is 11-1 against the 1rst half line (+9.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was UCF 18.9, OPPONENT 7.1.
--UCF is 7-0 against the 1rst half line (+7.0 Units) off a road win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was UCF 24.3, OPPONENT 12.6.
--UCF is 8-0 against the 1rst half line (+8.0 Units) in home games after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games since 1992.
The average score was UCF 19.4, OPPONENT 5.6.
•COACHING TRENDS
--BRONCO MENDENHALL is 20-8 UNDER (+11.2 Units) the 1rst half total in road games in the first half of the season as the coach of BYU.
The average score was BYU 11.9, OPPONENT 10.3.
--GEORGE O'LEARY is 27-11 ATS (+14.9 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest as the coach of UCF.
The average score was UCF 30.4, OPPONENT 20.1.
--GEORGE O'LEARY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after gaining 125 or less passing yards in last game as the coach of UCF.
The average score was UCF 27.0, OPPONENT 24.9.
--GEORGE O'LEARY is 32-15 ATS (+15.5 Units) off a road win in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was O'LEARY 31.8, OPPONENT 24.1.
--GEORGE O'LEARY is 22-11 OVER (+9.9 Units) in October games as the coach of UCF.
The average score was UCF 29.5, OPPONENT 26.6.
--GEORGE O'LEARY is 41-24 against the 1rst half line (+14.4 Units) after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers as the coach of UCF.
The average score was UCF 14.5, OPPONENT 11.9.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--BYU is 1-0 against the spread versus UCF since 1992.
--BYU is 1-0 straight up against UCF since 1992.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--UCF is 1-0 versus the first half line when playing against BYU since 1992.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
•RECENT TRENDS
--BYU is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games.
--BYU is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in October.
--Under is 5-0 in BYU last 5 Thursday games.
--UCF is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
--UCF is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
--Over is 13-4 in UCF last 17 games in October.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 55 times, while the favorite covered the spread 34 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 49 times, while the underdog won straight up 41 times. 26 games went over the total, while 13 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 49 times, while the favorite covered first half line 36 times. *No EDGE. 25 games went over first half total, while 13 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play On - Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (UCF) - an average defensive team (330 to 390 YPG) against an excellent offensive team (>=440 YPG), after allowing 14 points or less last game against opponent after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games.
(46-16 since 1992.) (74.2%, +28.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (55-8)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 6.8
The average score in these games was: Team 31.9, Opponent 19.3 (Average point differential = +12.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 29 (47.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (10-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (24-6).
________________________________________________
STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NFL REPORT
THURSDAY OCTOBER, 9th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_____________________________________
***** National Football League Information - Week #6 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 National Football League season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
______________________________________________________________
#101 INDIANAPOLIS @ #102 HOUSTON
TV: 8:25 PM EST, CBS, NFL Network
Line: Colts -2.5, Total: 46
The Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans already have separated themselves from the AFC South pack as they prepare for a first-place showdown Thursday night in Houston. "The division games are huge. I think everybody that has played in the league knows that and really understands how much they mean," Texans quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick told reporters. "There is an added emphasis on this week, for sure, especially with it being Indianapolis." The defending division champion Colts have won nine straight against AFC South rivals dating to 2012.
The Colts have won three straight after dropping their first two games by a combined 10 points, and their defense has been impressive during the winning streak. They'll try to continue that trend against a Houston offense that has struggled to find consistency, particularly in the passing game. The Colts have won three straight meetings and 20 of 24 all-time.
•ABOUT THE COLTS (3-2 SU, 4-1-0 ATS): The defense has been a pleasant surprise in Indianapolis, holding three straight opponents under 350 total yards and forcing three turnovers in each contest. That unit turned in a strong effort in Sunday's 20-13 home win over Baltimore, helping the Colts overcome four turnovers. The Colts hope last week's offensive miscues were an anomaly and look for a bounce-back effort from quarterback Andrew Luck, who threw two interceptions against the Ravens but is aiming for his fourth straight 300-yard passing game.
•ABOUT THE TEXANS (3-2 SU, 4-1-0 ATS): Fitzpatrick has been inconsistent in his first year with Houston, but he has excelled in two home starts against the Colts, compiling 377 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions for a 116.6 rating. Running back Arian Foster also has enjoyed facing Indianapolis — he has 752 rushing yards and six TDs in six meetings, including a career-high 231 yards and three scores in 2010. Houston's defense has given up big yardage totals all season but has bailed itself out with a league-best 12 takeaways.
•PREGAME NOTES: Indianapolis WR Reggie Wayne (13,950) needs 55 receiving yards to pass James Lofton for eighth on the National Football League’s all-time list.... Houston WR Andre Johnson needs 19 receiving yards to become the 15th player in league history to reach 13,000.... The Colts are 11-1-1 all-time on Thursday, including a 7-0 mark since 2007.... Though Johnson has yet to record a 100-yard receiving effort or score a touchdown in 2014, he's averaged 158.3 yards while totaling 27 receptions and five TDs in the last three home contests against Indianapolis. He had nine catches, 229 yards and a career-high three TDs in last season's home defeat to the Colts.... Foster has averaged 5.3 yards per carry while rushing for 343 and four touchdowns in three Thursday games - most recently Thanksgiving Day at Detroit in 2012.
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•KEY STATS
--INDIANAPOLIS is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) versus poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing >= 24 yards per return over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 25.2, OPPONENT 21.6.
--INDIANAPOLIS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 32.0, OPPONENT 14.4.
--INDIANAPOLIS is 33-13 OVER (+18.7 Units) in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) since 1992.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 19.7, OPPONENT 26.8.
--INDIANAPOLIS is 17-5 OVER (+11.5 Units) in road games after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games since 1992.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 27.0, OPPONENT 27.8.
--INDIANAPOLIS is 0-8 against the 1rst half line (-8.8 Units) in road games versus good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 7.0, OPPONENT 18.6.
--INDIANAPOLIS is 7-20 against the 1rst half line (-14.9 Units) in road games versus poor rushing defenses - allowing >=4.5 rushing yards/carry since 1992.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 11.8, OPPONENT 16.2.
--INDIANAPOLIS is 2-12 against the 1rst half line (-11.1 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 9.3, OPPONENT 15.3.
--HOUSTON is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 18.4, OPPONENT 27.7.
--HOUSTON is 24-10 OVER (+13.0 Units) as a home underdog of 7 points or less since 1992.
The average score was HOUSTON 21.7, OPPONENT 24.4.
--HOUSTON is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) in home games after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game since 1992.
The average score was HOUSTON 16.5, OPPONENT 17.9.
--HOUSTON is 14-3 against the 1rst half line (+10.7 Units) as a home underdog of 1.5 points or less versus the 1rst half line since 1992.
The average score was HOUSTON 14.9, OPPONENT 8.8.
--HOUSTON is 14-4 UNDER (+9.6 Units) the 1rst half total versus terrible defensive teams - allowing >=6 yards/play since 1992.
The average score was HOUSTON 8.5, OPPONENT 11.2.
•COACHING TRENDS
--CHUCK PAGANO is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest as the coach of INDIANAPOLIS.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 28.2, OPPONENT 21.7.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--HOUSTON is 12-12 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS since 1992.
--INDIANAPOLIS is 20-4 straight up against HOUSTON since 1992.
--13 of 24 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--HOUSTON is 12-12 versus the first half line when playing against INDIANAPOLIS since 1992.
--13 of 24 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
--Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
--Favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
--Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Houston.
--Home team is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--IND is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in October.
--IND is 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 Thursday games.
--Over is 7-1 in IND last 8 road games.
--HOU is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.
--HOU is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in Week #6.
--Over is 5-2 in HOU last 7 games in Week #6.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 39 times, while the underdog covered the spread 37 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 45 times, while the underdog won straight up 31 times. 51 games went over the total, while 37 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 65 times, while the underdog covered first half line 51 times. *No EDGE. 71 games went over first half total, while 63 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Against - Road favorites versus the 1rst half line (INDIANAPOLIS) - an excellent offensive team (>=27 PPG) against a good defensive team (14-18 PPG), after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team.
(85-45 since 1983.) (65.4%, +35.5 units. Rating = 2*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 10.8, Opponent 11.3 (Average first half point differential = -0.5)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-5).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (22-9).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (38-22).
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THURSDAY OCTOBER, 9th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** National Football League Information - Week #6 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 National Football League season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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#101 INDIANAPOLIS @ #102 HOUSTON
TV: 8:25 PM EST, CBS, NFL Network
Line: Colts -2.5, Total: 46
The Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans already have separated themselves from the AFC South pack as they prepare for a first-place showdown Thursday night in Houston. "The division games are huge. I think everybody that has played in the league knows that and really understands how much they mean," Texans quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick told reporters. "There is an added emphasis on this week, for sure, especially with it being Indianapolis." The defending division champion Colts have won nine straight against AFC South rivals dating to 2012.
The Colts have won three straight after dropping their first two games by a combined 10 points, and their defense has been impressive during the winning streak. They'll try to continue that trend against a Houston offense that has struggled to find consistency, particularly in the passing game. The Colts have won three straight meetings and 20 of 24 all-time.
•ABOUT THE COLTS (3-2 SU, 4-1-0 ATS): The defense has been a pleasant surprise in Indianapolis, holding three straight opponents under 350 total yards and forcing three turnovers in each contest. That unit turned in a strong effort in Sunday's 20-13 home win over Baltimore, helping the Colts overcome four turnovers. The Colts hope last week's offensive miscues were an anomaly and look for a bounce-back effort from quarterback Andrew Luck, who threw two interceptions against the Ravens but is aiming for his fourth straight 300-yard passing game.
•ABOUT THE TEXANS (3-2 SU, 4-1-0 ATS): Fitzpatrick has been inconsistent in his first year with Houston, but he has excelled in two home starts against the Colts, compiling 377 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions for a 116.6 rating. Running back Arian Foster also has enjoyed facing Indianapolis — he has 752 rushing yards and six TDs in six meetings, including a career-high 231 yards and three scores in 2010. Houston's defense has given up big yardage totals all season but has bailed itself out with a league-best 12 takeaways.
•PREGAME NOTES: Indianapolis WR Reggie Wayne (13,950) needs 55 receiving yards to pass James Lofton for eighth on the National Football League’s all-time list.... Houston WR Andre Johnson needs 19 receiving yards to become the 15th player in league history to reach 13,000.... The Colts are 11-1-1 all-time on Thursday, including a 7-0 mark since 2007.... Though Johnson has yet to record a 100-yard receiving effort or score a touchdown in 2014, he's averaged 158.3 yards while totaling 27 receptions and five TDs in the last three home contests against Indianapolis. He had nine catches, 229 yards and a career-high three TDs in last season's home defeat to the Colts.... Foster has averaged 5.3 yards per carry while rushing for 343 and four touchdowns in three Thursday games - most recently Thanksgiving Day at Detroit in 2012.
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•KEY STATS
--INDIANAPOLIS is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) versus poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing >= 24 yards per return over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 25.2, OPPONENT 21.6.
--INDIANAPOLIS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 32.0, OPPONENT 14.4.
--INDIANAPOLIS is 33-13 OVER (+18.7 Units) in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) since 1992.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 19.7, OPPONENT 26.8.
--INDIANAPOLIS is 17-5 OVER (+11.5 Units) in road games after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games since 1992.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 27.0, OPPONENT 27.8.
--INDIANAPOLIS is 0-8 against the 1rst half line (-8.8 Units) in road games versus good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 7.0, OPPONENT 18.6.
--INDIANAPOLIS is 7-20 against the 1rst half line (-14.9 Units) in road games versus poor rushing defenses - allowing >=4.5 rushing yards/carry since 1992.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 11.8, OPPONENT 16.2.
--INDIANAPOLIS is 2-12 against the 1rst half line (-11.1 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 9.3, OPPONENT 15.3.
--HOUSTON is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 18.4, OPPONENT 27.7.
--HOUSTON is 24-10 OVER (+13.0 Units) as a home underdog of 7 points or less since 1992.
The average score was HOUSTON 21.7, OPPONENT 24.4.
--HOUSTON is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) in home games after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game since 1992.
The average score was HOUSTON 16.5, OPPONENT 17.9.
--HOUSTON is 14-3 against the 1rst half line (+10.7 Units) as a home underdog of 1.5 points or less versus the 1rst half line since 1992.
The average score was HOUSTON 14.9, OPPONENT 8.8.
--HOUSTON is 14-4 UNDER (+9.6 Units) the 1rst half total versus terrible defensive teams - allowing >=6 yards/play since 1992.
The average score was HOUSTON 8.5, OPPONENT 11.2.
•COACHING TRENDS
--CHUCK PAGANO is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest as the coach of INDIANAPOLIS.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 28.2, OPPONENT 21.7.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--HOUSTON is 12-12 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS since 1992.
--INDIANAPOLIS is 20-4 straight up against HOUSTON since 1992.
--13 of 24 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--HOUSTON is 12-12 versus the first half line when playing against INDIANAPOLIS since 1992.
--13 of 24 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
--Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
--Favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
--Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Houston.
--Home team is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--IND is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in October.
--IND is 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 Thursday games.
--Over is 7-1 in IND last 8 road games.
--HOU is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.
--HOU is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in Week #6.
--Over is 5-2 in HOU last 7 games in Week #6.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 39 times, while the underdog covered the spread 37 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 45 times, while the underdog won straight up 31 times. 51 games went over the total, while 37 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 65 times, while the underdog covered first half line 51 times. *No EDGE. 71 games went over first half total, while 63 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Against - Road favorites versus the 1rst half line (INDIANAPOLIS) - an excellent offensive team (>=27 PPG) against a good defensive team (14-18 PPG), after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team.
(85-45 since 1983.) (65.4%, +35.5 units. Rating = 2*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 10.8, Opponent 11.3 (Average first half point differential = -0.5)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-5).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (22-9).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (38-22).
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