King Creole | NFL Total
double-dime bet 101 IND / 102 HOU OVER 46.0 Hilton
Analysis:
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ HOUSTON TEXANS
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
*Optimum OU line: 46 or less points
We’ll be bucking a Indy / Hous series HISTORY which has gone 1-6 O/U in the last seven meetings. With that said however, the last nine meetings played IN Houston have gone 7-2 O/U… with an average of 53.2 total points-per-game.
NFL games on this particular Day of the Week have been GREAT ‘Over’ plays as of late. Already this season, THURSDAY games with an OU line of > 4 points have gone a PERFECT 4-0 O/U… with an average of 58.3 ppg. And from our database, we know that when the home team is catching points… we always want to look to go ‘Over’. NFL THURSDAY home underdogs of < 7 points (HOUSTON) have gone 40-23-2 O/U overall. That includes 10-1-1 O/U in the last two seasons.
At last look, Indy was laying -2.5 to -3 points in this game… 9-1 O/U last 2 years: All GAME 10 or less DIVISION road favorites of -3 < pts (NDY) when the OU line falls in the range of 41-48 points. These games have already gone 2-0 O/U this season (NEng @ Mia in Gm 1 / Balt @ Clev in Gm 2).
The Colts are rolling along pretty well. They’re off 3 straight SU and ATS favorite wins in a row… 24-9 O/U since 2007: All NFL road teams off 3+ SU and ATS favorite wins in a row (COLTS). These teams have gone 9-1 O/U in DIVISION play.
Yes, we’re very aware that the Colts have allowed 13… 17… and 17 points in their last 3 games. 9-1 O/U last 5 seasons: All DIVISION road favorites who allowed 17 < pts in EACH of their last three games (COLTS) when the OU line is > 39 points.
Prior to scoring only 20 points last week, Indy scored 41 and 44 in the prior two games… 6-0 O/U since 2002: All GAME 8 or less teams who scored 20 < pts… 35 > pts… and 35 > pts in their last three games (COLTS) when the OU line is > 37 points.
Both of these teams are off UNDERS in their last game… 9-1 O/U last two seasons: All GAME 11 or less DIVISION games in which BOTH teams went ‘Under’ in their last game (TEXANS + COLTS) when the OU line falls in the range of 38 to 48 points.
In fact, the host Texans are actually off 2 straight UNDERS in a row… 10-1 O/U last two seasons: All GAME 8 or less home underdogs off 2 or more UNDERS in a row (TEXANS) when the OU line is > 41 points. This situation went a perfect 5-0 O/U last year. And it’s already gone 20 O/U THIS season (Rams vs Cowboys in Wk 3: OVER by +19 pts… Vikings vs Falcons in Wk 4: OVER by +21 pts).
Houston may have lost last week in that 20-17 game versus Dallas… but they did bring home the bacon ATS (were dogs of +4.5 to +5)… THIS season: 4-0 O/U for all teams of a SU Loss BUT an ATS win that went ‘Under the Total’ (HOUS). So far this year: Oak vs Hous in Gm 2… SD vs Sea in Gm 2… KC vs Mia in Gm 3… and Oak vs Mia in Gm 4). In the last two seasons, these games have gone 12-1 O/U for biome underdogs in GAME NINE or less…
The Texans still rushed for 176 yards in last week’s loss to the Dallas Cowboys… 10-1 O/U since 2009: All GAME 10 or less home teams off a SU road loss in which they rushed for 175 or more yards (TEXANS)… when the OU line is 52 < points.
HOUSTON: 3-1 O/U on Thursdays… 16-5 O/U as home underdogs when the OU line is 38 > Pts (including a PERFECT 4-0 O„/U in division play)… 4-0 O/U off a SU win BUT an ATS loss… and 6-1 O/U at home vs any opponent off BBB ATS wins when the OU line is < 48 pts.
INDIANAPOLIS: 5-1 O/U Thursday road games… 5-0 O/U as favs of 7 < pts off a home ‘Under’ when the OU line is 44 > pts… 6-0 O/U off BBB SU ATS wins vs a > .400 opponent… and 8-2 O/U as road favorites of < 6 points.
Pick Made: Oct 8 2014 10:22AM PST