Vegas Runner:
**** MLB WORLD SERIES (GM2) 4* GAME OF THE MONTH ****
BURNETT over Martinez
For starters, I did consider making this a RL Bet so that we could avoid laying the chalk...But the more work I did, the more obvious it became that the BEST BET tonight is the NYY...And I wasn't going to try and make it harder on us than it has to be...
Bottom Line...we didn't lay this kind of number all season...Because I've said it countless times that those Regular Season games just lack the significance to lay this price...But the Playoffs, and especially the WORLD SERIES...significance, importance, and motivation aren't a real concern...The stakes are high and the players almost always try to bring their A game....
So now that we know who we are betting...let me tell you why...
Historically, teams who lose GM1 at HOME...come back to Win GM2 "62%" of the time in the MLB Playoffs...and "67%" in ALL sports that have a 7-Gm Seri–es in the Post-Season...More importantly, in the WORLD SERIES...those same Home Teams win GM2 "66%" of the time...
Although that alone isn't enough reason...it is definitely a trend that has a huge sample size, and should be weighed in tonight's handicapp...
When we get more specific...and look at this particular match-up...We have a NYY team who has Won "71.2%" of their HOME GAME...Which means that you could have laid a chalk price of almost -250 when they play at Yankee Stadium, and still walked away with a Profit...So the -200 the books are asking tonight isn't that unreasonable...
More importantly, although Burnett didn't look great in his last start...which is also why we aren't being asked to lay -230, which is what I believe the "True Line" should be...Prior to that, the NYY has Won 7 of his L/9 starts...And when you look at the results of when he pitches at home, the NYY have Won "14 of 18" HOME Starts...For a Win% of over "77%"...Which would mean that you could have laid -300 on Burnett when he pitches at Yankee Stadium this season...and still be up money...
I will admit that Pedro has done an excellent job since being signed by the Phils...But bottom line is that they are 3-2 on his Road Starts...More importantly, Pedro has only lasted an average of about 5 Inn in his starts this season...And too much stock is being put in his last start vs LAA, since prior to that...he had lasted a total of "7 Inn" in his prior 2 starts...
Finally, it's no secret that I have a Future Bet worth "15 Units" on the PHILS to Win the WS which I decided not to hedge...But tonight's bet has nothing at all to do with that wager...In fact, although I do want to see the Phils win the WS...I was the first to say that if they do it won't be easy...And the reason we passed on the Hedge is because I felt there would be opportunities to do so as the series progresses...
Anyway you slice it...this is a "MUST WIN" for the Yankees...And although in sports, that has never guaranteed anything...I believe that this 2009 NYY team is too good to lie down and lose 2 straight at home...They are a veteran team who knows the stakes...Sure the pressure is on, but playing for the NYY gets you very accustomed to pressure by the time the playoffs start rolling...
This is an excellent spot to get our money down...and even at -200, I believe we are getting so much the best of it...that I am stepping out and making a 4 Unit Bet on the Yanks...Let's go ahead and lay the chalk and back Burnett for tonight's WORLD SERIES GOM...VR