Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]San Antonio vs. Chicago
For a number of different reasons I feel we're getting excellent value on the "over" in this matchup: Derrick Rose will be in the lineup tonight for Chicago; the Bulls star point guard sat out the last three weeks but has been cleared to play tonight. Rose averaged 6.3 assists and 16.8 points per game.
Other than Ben Gordon, who left to the Pistons, the core of the Bulls remains much the same as last season with Joakim Noah, Tyrus Thomas, John Salmons and Luol Deng all returning.
Salmons, acquired from Sacramento, started 21 games for the Bulls, averaging 18.3 points last year. He averaged 26.5 on 65.4 % shooting in two games against the Spurs last season.
Deng averaged 17.0 points and 6.3 rebounds for Chicago in 2007-08, but missed the final 22 games last season plus the playoffs with injury and finished with his lowest scoring average (14.1) since his 2004-05 rookie season; Deng should continue to improve and will also be leaned on to pick up the offensive slack with Gordon's absence.
On the other side of the court: I was on the Spurs yesterday and they laid down a 113-96 beating on the visiting Hornets. Tony Parker finished with team highs of 17 points and six assists in 26 minutes before leaving the game after having the wind knocked out of him.
Richard Jefferson's San Antonio debut was unspectacular; five points on 1-of-7 shooting; I expect him to play more relaxed and have a much better game this evening.
Bottom line: The Spurs displayed the type of balanced scoring that figures to be a trademark for this team as they poured in 57 halftime points vs. New Orleans. Six players finished in double-figures and three more had nine points each. San Antonio has an opportunity to start its season strong and to put some ground between it and perennial opponent, Dallas. They play six of their first 10 at home, with one win already under their belts. Meanwhile, Dallas, which lost its home opener, plays seven of its next 10 on the road; to accomplish this San Antonio is going to have continue to concentrate on the offensive side of the ball.
The Bulls are an up-tempo team that loves to play the run-and-gun; expect this contest to be a high-scoring affair; play on the OVER! *7*.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]San Antonio vs. Chicago
For a number of different reasons I feel we're getting excellent value on the "over" in this matchup: Derrick Rose will be in the lineup tonight for Chicago; the Bulls star point guard sat out the last three weeks but has been cleared to play tonight. Rose averaged 6.3 assists and 16.8 points per game.
Other than Ben Gordon, who left to the Pistons, the core of the Bulls remains much the same as last season with Joakim Noah, Tyrus Thomas, John Salmons and Luol Deng all returning.
Salmons, acquired from Sacramento, started 21 games for the Bulls, averaging 18.3 points last year. He averaged 26.5 on 65.4 % shooting in two games against the Spurs last season.
Deng averaged 17.0 points and 6.3 rebounds for Chicago in 2007-08, but missed the final 22 games last season plus the playoffs with injury and finished with his lowest scoring average (14.1) since his 2004-05 rookie season; Deng should continue to improve and will also be leaned on to pick up the offensive slack with Gordon's absence.
On the other side of the court: I was on the Spurs yesterday and they laid down a 113-96 beating on the visiting Hornets. Tony Parker finished with team highs of 17 points and six assists in 26 minutes before leaving the game after having the wind knocked out of him.
Richard Jefferson's San Antonio debut was unspectacular; five points on 1-of-7 shooting; I expect him to play more relaxed and have a much better game this evening.
Bottom line: The Spurs displayed the type of balanced scoring that figures to be a trademark for this team as they poured in 57 halftime points vs. New Orleans. Six players finished in double-figures and three more had nine points each. San Antonio has an opportunity to start its season strong and to put some ground between it and perennial opponent, Dallas. They play six of their first 10 at home, with one win already under their belts. Meanwhile, Dallas, which lost its home opener, plays seven of its next 10 on the road; to accomplish this San Antonio is going to have continue to concentrate on the offensive side of the ball.
The Bulls are an up-tempo team that loves to play the run-and-gun; expect this contest to be a high-scoring affair; play on the OVER! *7*.[/FONT]
Rocketman
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]New Jersey vs. Boston
Boston hasn't played since October 24th and New Jersey had to play last night so the Bruins are well rested while the Devils aren't. Bruins are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. Atlantic. Bruins are 5-2 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Bruins are 5-2 in their last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Bruins are 53-22 in their last 75 vs. Eastern Conference. Bruins are 36-15 in their last 51 home games. Bruins are 36-15 in their last 51 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game. Bruins are 40-19 in their last 59 games following a win. We'll play Boston for 3 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]New Jersey vs. Boston
Boston hasn't played since October 24th and New Jersey had to play last night so the Bruins are well rested while the Devils aren't. Bruins are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. Atlantic. Bruins are 5-2 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Bruins are 5-2 in their last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Bruins are 53-22 in their last 75 vs. Eastern Conference. Bruins are 36-15 in their last 51 home games. Bruins are 36-15 in their last 51 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game. Bruins are 40-19 in their last 59 games following a win. We'll play Boston for 3 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky.[/FONT]
Mike Lineback
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]San Antonio vs. Chicago
Spurs playing b2b but not worried this early in season. They took care of New Orleans easy last night, with key players playing limited (reasonable) minutes. No players logged more than 28 minutes. Parker, Duncan & Ginobili played 26, 22 & 23 minutes respectively. Hence, they should have fresh legs again tonight. San Antonio are loaded with new additions Jefferson, McDyess, Blair & Ratliff. Not to mention, their returning class of quality role players (Hill, Mason, Bonner etc). Chicago will have problems matching this depth (SA 2nd unit wins big), plus playing vs. a well coached talented team this early in season. Bulls are going to miss Ben Gordon big-time (20 ppg; go to guy late). Plus, Derick Rose will be limited with an injured ankle (20 minutes max). SA won both meetings by 5+ last season & have won L4 meetings overall, three by 10+ points. Take the Spurs.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]San Antonio vs. Chicago
Spurs playing b2b but not worried this early in season. They took care of New Orleans easy last night, with key players playing limited (reasonable) minutes. No players logged more than 28 minutes. Parker, Duncan & Ginobili played 26, 22 & 23 minutes respectively. Hence, they should have fresh legs again tonight. San Antonio are loaded with new additions Jefferson, McDyess, Blair & Ratliff. Not to mention, their returning class of quality role players (Hill, Mason, Bonner etc). Chicago will have problems matching this depth (SA 2nd unit wins big), plus playing vs. a well coached talented team this early in season. Bulls are going to miss Ben Gordon big-time (20 ppg; go to guy late). Plus, Derick Rose will be limited with an injured ankle (20 minutes max). SA won both meetings by 5+ last season & have won L4 meetings overall, three by 10+ points. Take the Spurs.[/FONT]
Lenny Del Genio
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]North Carolina vs. Virginia Tech
Although the spread is sizable, we certainly do not like UNC QB Yates against the Hokies superb defense. The Tar Heels are averaging just 289.3 YPG on the offensive side of the ball and have lost three straight conference games. Yates has a lousy TD:INT ratio of 7:8, which is pretty unacceptable at this level. Since allowing Alabama to run wild in the opener, the VA Tech defense has been dominant, allowing just 317 yards and 19 points per game. Their one weakness is against the run, but note that the Tar Heels have rushed for 39 yards or less as a team in three different games this season. The Carolina defense has also been good, but they absolutely collapsed last Thursday at home vs. Florida State and who knows how they will respond from such a crushing loss? Plus, the Virginia Tech rushing attack of QB Taylor and RB Williams will be the toughest they've faced all season. Since joining the ACC, the Hokies have won all five meetings with the Tar Heels, so they seem to have their number. North Carolina has failed to score more than 17 points in each of the last four meetings. VA Tech has had a couple extra days to prepare (last played on 10/17), is coming off a loss, and is 12-6 ATS coming off a bye. They are also an excellent 14-3 ATS in Thursday night games (9-2 ATS at home) and have won 12 straight home games overall. UNC is just 1-13 SU in ACC road games outside of the Tar Heel State and in their last 16 road games against ranked opponents, the average loss has come by 22.6 PPG. Virginia Tech is our CFB Oddsmaker Mismatch. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]North Carolina vs. Virginia Tech
Although the spread is sizable, we certainly do not like UNC QB Yates against the Hokies superb defense. The Tar Heels are averaging just 289.3 YPG on the offensive side of the ball and have lost three straight conference games. Yates has a lousy TD:INT ratio of 7:8, which is pretty unacceptable at this level. Since allowing Alabama to run wild in the opener, the VA Tech defense has been dominant, allowing just 317 yards and 19 points per game. Their one weakness is against the run, but note that the Tar Heels have rushed for 39 yards or less as a team in three different games this season. The Carolina defense has also been good, but they absolutely collapsed last Thursday at home vs. Florida State and who knows how they will respond from such a crushing loss? Plus, the Virginia Tech rushing attack of QB Taylor and RB Williams will be the toughest they've faced all season. Since joining the ACC, the Hokies have won all five meetings with the Tar Heels, so they seem to have their number. North Carolina has failed to score more than 17 points in each of the last four meetings. VA Tech has had a couple extra days to prepare (last played on 10/17), is coming off a loss, and is 12-6 ATS coming off a bye. They are also an excellent 14-3 ATS in Thursday night games (9-2 ATS at home) and have won 12 straight home games overall. UNC is just 1-13 SU in ACC road games outside of the Tar Heel State and in their last 16 road games against ranked opponents, the average loss has come by 22.6 PPG. Virginia Tech is our CFB Oddsmaker Mismatch. [/FONT]
THE SPORTS ADVISORS
WORLD SERIES
Philadelphia (8-2) at N.Y. Yankees (7-3)
After getting a Game 1 gem from southpaw Cliff Lee, the Phillies hand the ball to Pedro Martinez (5-1, 3.14 ERA) looking to take a commanding 2-0 lead in the World Series, while the Yankees counter with A.J. Burnett (13-9, 4.07) in the Bronx.
Lee, making his first-ever World Series start, pitched a complete-game six-hitter on Wednesday, surrendering just one ninth-inning unearned run while striking out 10 to lead the defending champions to 6-1 victory in Game 1 of this best-of-7 series. Chase Utley provided the early scoring with a pair of solo home runs, and Philadelphia then gave Lee two insurance runs in both the eighth and ninth innings to win its fourth consecutive game in this postseason and steal home-field advantage in this series.
Philadelphia is now 19-5 in its last 24 playoff contests, including 7-2 on the road (4-1 this year) and 5-1 in the Fall Classic. Additionally, the defending champs are on positive runs of 7-1 overall and 11-3 as an underdog (9-3 as a road pup). However, Charlie Manuel’s club has dropped nine of 13 interleague games, all against the A.L. East., and it is 15-36 in its last 51 interleague contests against right-handed starters.
The Yankees, back in the World Series for the first time since 2003, lost for the first time in six home playoff games. New York, which finished with baseball’s best regular-season record, still sports impressive runs of 48-20 overall, 41-11 at new Yankee Stadium, 13-4 after a loss, 41-12 as a favorite, 45-18 against right-handed starters, 5-1 in interleague play (all against the N.L. East) and 58-26 when hosting National League opponents. Additionally, Joe Girardi’s club has won seven of eight playoff games as a favorite and eight of 11 at home in the World Series. However, the 26-time world champs came up short in their last two World Series appearances, losing to the Diamondbacks in 2001 and the Marlins in 2003.
Philadelphia is now 3-1 against New York this year, having taken two of three in the Bronx in late May in a weekend interleague series. Prior to this year, the Yankees had been 7-3 in interleague play against the Phillies going back to 1999. The visitor has now won seven of the last nine meetings.
Martinez has been on the mound just once since Sept. 30, and that was in Game 2 of the NLCS in Los Angeles, and the former Cy Young winner was brilliant, holding the Dodgers to two hits and no walks in seven scoreless innings. He departed with a 1-0 lead, but his bullpen couldn’t close the deal and Philadelphia fell 2-1. Despite that setback, the Phillies are 8-2 behind Martinez, who signed a free-agent contract in July and didn’t make his first start with the big club until Aug. 12.
With his performance at Dodger Stadium, Martinez is now 3-1 with a 4.23 ERA in five road starts this year and 6-2 with a 3.13 ERA in 14 lifetime playoff appearances (12 starts). Martinez also has a long history against the Yankees going back to his days pitching for the Red Sox and Mets, going 12-13 with a 3.41 ERA in 38 career games (including the postseason). Most recently, Martinez faced New York last June when he was with the Mets, and he got rocked for six runs in 5 2/3 inning of a 9-0 home loss. Including two playoff starts in 2004, the Yankees are 7-2 the last nine times they’ve seen Martinez.
Burnett failed to get a decision in any of his first three playoff starts (two against the Angels, one against the Twins). The right-hander, pitching in his first postseason, was sharp in the first two outings, both at home, allowing a combined three runs on six hits in 12 1/3 innings, with New York pulling out a pair of 4-3 extra-inning victories. However, his last time out, Burnett got rocked in Game 5 in Anaheim, yielding six runs – including four before recording an out in the bottom of the first inning – on eight hits in six innings, with New York erasing the 4-0 deficit but eventually losing, 7-6.
Prior to the Game 5 loss to the Angels, the Yankees had won five straight games behind Burnett and they’re 11-2 in his last 13 outings in the Bronx (3-0 last three). Including his two solid playoff starts at home, Burnett is 5-3 with a 3.38 ERA in 18 games at new Yankee Stadium, with New York going 14-4.
Burnett suffered a 7-3 home loss to the Phillies on May 22, getting crushed for five runs on eight hits (including three home runs) in six innings. He’s 5-8 with a beefy 7.50 ERA in 17 lifetime games (16 starts) against Philadelphia. In the last five starts versus the Phillies, Burnett surrendered 25 runs (23 earned) on 32 hits (seven home runs) over just 24 innings (8.63 ERA), with the Phillies going 4-1.
All four Yankees-Phillies games this season have stayed under the total, and the under is 8-1 the past nine meetings overall and 5-0 in the last five in the Bronx.
As a team, Philadelphia carries “over” trends of 18-7-2 overall, 6-2-1 in the playoffs, 13-4 on the road, 15-5-2 against right-handed starters, 3-1-1 on Thursday. However, the under is 10-2-1 in the Phillies’ last 13 interleague road games, 4-1-1 in their last six against the A.L. East, 10-4-1 in their last 15 as an underdog in interleague action, 4-1-1 in the World Series and 5-2 behind Martinez.
New York is on a slew of “under” streaks, including 7-2-1 overall, 11-1-1 at home, 8-2-2 against right-handed starters, 17-6 in interleague play, 16-6 versus the N.L. East, 14-3 in the World Series and 7-0 in World Series home games. Also, with Burnett on the mound, the under is on runs of 5-2-1 overall and 12-3-1 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
North Carolina (4-3, 1-4 ATS) at (14) Virginia Tech (5-2, 3-4 ATS)
North Carolina plays in the Thursday night prime-time spotlight for the second straight week, only hoping for better results this time around as it heads to Lane Stadium in Blacksburg for an ACC clash with the 14th-ranked Hokies.
The Tar Heels (0-3 SU and ATS in the ACC) squandered a 24-6 third-quarter lead last Thursday night to Florida State and fell 30-27 as a two-point home favorite. North Carolina’s normally stout defense got torched for 438 total yards (395 through the air), and despite a 238-43 edge in rushing, the Tar Heels suffered their third consecutive SU and ATS Division I-A loss, all to ACC foes, to remain winless in conference play.
Virginia Tech (3-1, 2-2 in the ACC) was idle last week as it recovered from a tough 28-23 setback at Georgia Tech as a 3½-point road chalk on Oct. 17. The defeat snapped the Hokies’ five-game winning streak (3-2 ATS) and continued their trend of alternating spread-covers over the past eight games. Against Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech QB Tyrod Taylor was 10-for-14 passing for 159 yards and a TD pass and added 63 rushing yards and another score, but he threw two interceptions as the Hokies held the ball for just 21½ minutes. Meanwhile, the defense got run over, surrendering 309 rushing yards.
North Carolina has split its two road contests (0-2 ATS), while Virginia Tech is unbeaten through four games at Lane Stadium (3-1 ATS).
The Hokies have won all five meetings in this series since joining the ACC in 2004, going 3-2 ATS. Last year, Virginia Tech rallied from a 17-3 third-quarter deficit to pull out a 20-17 victory as a 3½-point underdog, the only time in the last five meetings that the Hokies weren’t favored by double digits. In that contest, North Carolina QB T.J. Yates suffered a season-ending knee injury in the second half, and backup Mike Paulus came on and threw two critical interceptions that aided Virginia Tech’s comeback. The visitor has cashed in each of the last three meetings.
The Hokies have scored 23 points or more in all but one game this season and are averaging 32.6 points and 380 total yards per game, including 203.7 rushing ypg, which ranks 15th in the nation. Taylor is having a solid junior season, passing for 1,154 yards (57.6 percent completion rate) with nine TDs and three INTs, but his TD run against Georgia Tech was just his first of the season after tallying 13 rushing scores in his first two years.
Although fully recovered from last year’s knee injury, Yates has struggled throwing the ball, completing 59 percent of his passes for 1,028 yards with seven TDs offset by eight INTs, and last week against Florida State he was 12-for-25 for just 64 yards with a TD and an INT. Against ACC defenses, Yates is averaging just 106.3 passing ypg with two TDs and five INTs. As a team, North Carolina is putting up 23.1 points and just 289.3 total yards per game (128.7 rushing ypg), and the Heels have only managed 37 total points in their three conference defeats.
Both defenses have been solid, with UNC (16.4 ppg, 266.3 total ypg) holding a slight statistical edge over Virginia Tech (19.1 ppg, 317.4 total ypg). The big discrepancy is in rushing defense, with the Tar Heels allowing 102.6 rushing ypg (2.8 per carry), while the Hokies give up 150.3 ypg on the ground (3.9 per carry).
The Tar Heels are in ATS funks of 1-6-1 in the regular season, 1-4 on the road, 1-4 on Thursday and 1-5 in ACC play (0-3 this year), but they’ve cashed in eight of 11 after a non-cover and are 4-1 ATS in their last five as an underdog and 4-1-1 ATS in their last six when catching more than 10 points. Va-Tech has failed to cash in six of seven in October and nine of 13 as a chalk, but otherwise the Hokies are on pointspread upticks of 4-1 at home, 29-13 in conference, 7-2 against teams with a winning record, 4-1 on Thursday and 4-0 after an ATS setback.
The over is on runs of 5-1 with the Heels as a ‘dog, 4-1 with the Heels playing on Thursday, 5-2 for the Heels in October, 4-1 for Virginia Tech in October and 5-2 with Virginia Tech favored by more than 10 points. Conversely, UNC has stayed low in four of five on the road, and the Hokies are on “under” stretches of 15-5 at home and 10-1 on Thursday. Finally, the under is 4-1 in this rivalry since Virginia Tech joined the ACC.
ATS ADVANTAGE: VIRGINIA TECH and UNDER
NBA
San Antonio (1-0 SU and ATS) at Chicago (0-0 SU and ATS)
The Bulls take the court for the first time since their thrilling seven-game, opening-round playoff series against Boston as they host Tim Duncan and the Spurs at the United Center.
Chicago finished just 41-41 last year (42-39-1 ATS), but it was good enough for a second-place finish in the Central Division – 25 games behind Cleveland – and return trip to the playoffs as the No. 7 seed. Despite being an overwhelming underdog, the Bulls took Boston to the limit in the first round, going 3-1 in overtime games before eventually falling 109-99 as a 5½-point road underdog in the decisive Game 7. Chicago qualified for the postseason courtesy of a 12-4 SU run to close the regular season.
San Antonio opened the season with Wednesday’s impressive 113-96 rout of the Hornets, easily cashing as a 9½-point home favorite. Tony Parker (17 points) and Manu Ginobili (16) were among six players to score in double figures for the Spurs, who have now won 10 of their last 14 regular-season games, including the last five in a row. However, including the playoffs, the Spurs are still in an 8-15 ATS slump.
The Spurs have swept the season series from Chicago each of the last two years, going 4-0 SU and ATS (all as a favorite). The road team is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 head-to-head meetings, with San Antonio cashing in seven of its last eight trips to Chicago. Also, the SU winner has covered the spread in each of the last eight clashes.
San Antonio is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 overall (2-5 ATS last seven) and 7-13 ATS in its last 20 as a favorite, but it has covered in seven of its last 10 on the second night of a back-to-back situation. Chicago failed to cover in four of its final six regular-season games last year, but the Bulls went 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 contests versus the Western Conference last season, 4-0-1 ATS in their last five against Southwest Division foes, 5-1 ATS in their last six as an underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last five as a home pup.
The Spurs have topped the total in six of seven overall, but the under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 against the Central Division, 4-1 in their last five when playing on no rest and 6-2 in their last eight as a road chalk. For Chicago, the over is on runs of 4-0 overall (all as an underdog) going back to the playoff series against Boston, 4-1 against the Southwest Division, 7-3 against the Western Conference and 4-1 as a home ‘dog, but five of the Bulls’ last seven on Thursday have stayed low.
Finally, not only has San Antonio won and covered four straight meetings with Chicago, but all stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN ANTONIO
Denver (1-0 SU and ATS) at Portland (1-0 SU and ATS)
The Blazers look to open a season with consecutive wins for the first time since 2004-05 when they welcome the rival Nuggets to the Rose Garden for a Northwest Division clash.
Denver tipped off its 2009-10 campaign with Wednesday’s 114-105 come-from-behind home win over the Jazz, covering as a 5 ½-point favorite. Carmelo Anthony had a game-high 30 points and Chauncey Billups chipped in 25 for the Nuggets, who improved to 15-3 in their last 18 regular-season games (11-7 ATS). However, they’re just 4-3 SU and ATS on the road during this stretch, including a 104-76 loss at Portland as an 8½-point underdog in a meaningless regular-season finale.
Portland pounced on the Rockets in its opener Tuesday, jumping out to a 75-56 lead after three quarters and cruising to a 96-87 victory, barely covering as an 8½-point home favorite. Four Blazers players scored in double figures, with Travis Outlaw pouring in a game-high 23 points and star guard Brandon Roy chipping in 20 points, five boards and five assists. The Blazers have won seven straight regular-season games (6-1 ATS) and 11 of their last 12 (10-2 ATS).
Including Portland’s blowout home win in the regular-season finale, the home team (and favorite) won and covered all four Blazers-Nuggets battles in 2008-09. Still, Denver has owned this rivalry from a pointspread perspective, going 24-10-1 ATS in the last 35 series clashes, including 11-5-1 ATS in the last 17 at the Rose Garden.
Including the playoffs, Denver sports positive pointspread surges of 22-7 overall, 21-6 against the Western Conference, 6-1 on the road (all as an underdog) and 4-1 on Thursday. Meanwhile, the Blazers are on a 14-3 ATS run in the regular season, cashing in seven of their last eight at home. Portland is also on pointspread tears of 14-4 as a favorite, 8-2 as a home chalk, 4-0 against the Northwest Division, 4-1 versus Western Conference foes and 5-1 when playing on one day of rest, but it has failed to cash in nine of 13 on Thursday.
Denver is on “under” runs of 10-3 on the road (all as a ‘dog), 20-8 when catching points overall, and 6-2 when playing on back-to-back nights, but the over is 12-4 in its last 16 on Thursday. For Portland, the under is on stretches of 5-0 overall (playoffs included), 4-0 when playing on one day of rest and 12-3 against Northwest Division rivals. Lastly, all four of last year’s clashes between these teams stayed low, and the under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Portland.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
WORLD SERIES
Philadelphia (8-2) at N.Y. Yankees (7-3)
After getting a Game 1 gem from southpaw Cliff Lee, the Phillies hand the ball to Pedro Martinez (5-1, 3.14 ERA) looking to take a commanding 2-0 lead in the World Series, while the Yankees counter with A.J. Burnett (13-9, 4.07) in the Bronx.
Lee, making his first-ever World Series start, pitched a complete-game six-hitter on Wednesday, surrendering just one ninth-inning unearned run while striking out 10 to lead the defending champions to 6-1 victory in Game 1 of this best-of-7 series. Chase Utley provided the early scoring with a pair of solo home runs, and Philadelphia then gave Lee two insurance runs in both the eighth and ninth innings to win its fourth consecutive game in this postseason and steal home-field advantage in this series.
Philadelphia is now 19-5 in its last 24 playoff contests, including 7-2 on the road (4-1 this year) and 5-1 in the Fall Classic. Additionally, the defending champs are on positive runs of 7-1 overall and 11-3 as an underdog (9-3 as a road pup). However, Charlie Manuel’s club has dropped nine of 13 interleague games, all against the A.L. East., and it is 15-36 in its last 51 interleague contests against right-handed starters.
The Yankees, back in the World Series for the first time since 2003, lost for the first time in six home playoff games. New York, which finished with baseball’s best regular-season record, still sports impressive runs of 48-20 overall, 41-11 at new Yankee Stadium, 13-4 after a loss, 41-12 as a favorite, 45-18 against right-handed starters, 5-1 in interleague play (all against the N.L. East) and 58-26 when hosting National League opponents. Additionally, Joe Girardi’s club has won seven of eight playoff games as a favorite and eight of 11 at home in the World Series. However, the 26-time world champs came up short in their last two World Series appearances, losing to the Diamondbacks in 2001 and the Marlins in 2003.
Philadelphia is now 3-1 against New York this year, having taken two of three in the Bronx in late May in a weekend interleague series. Prior to this year, the Yankees had been 7-3 in interleague play against the Phillies going back to 1999. The visitor has now won seven of the last nine meetings.
Martinez has been on the mound just once since Sept. 30, and that was in Game 2 of the NLCS in Los Angeles, and the former Cy Young winner was brilliant, holding the Dodgers to two hits and no walks in seven scoreless innings. He departed with a 1-0 lead, but his bullpen couldn’t close the deal and Philadelphia fell 2-1. Despite that setback, the Phillies are 8-2 behind Martinez, who signed a free-agent contract in July and didn’t make his first start with the big club until Aug. 12.
With his performance at Dodger Stadium, Martinez is now 3-1 with a 4.23 ERA in five road starts this year and 6-2 with a 3.13 ERA in 14 lifetime playoff appearances (12 starts). Martinez also has a long history against the Yankees going back to his days pitching for the Red Sox and Mets, going 12-13 with a 3.41 ERA in 38 career games (including the postseason). Most recently, Martinez faced New York last June when he was with the Mets, and he got rocked for six runs in 5 2/3 inning of a 9-0 home loss. Including two playoff starts in 2004, the Yankees are 7-2 the last nine times they’ve seen Martinez.
Burnett failed to get a decision in any of his first three playoff starts (two against the Angels, one against the Twins). The right-hander, pitching in his first postseason, was sharp in the first two outings, both at home, allowing a combined three runs on six hits in 12 1/3 innings, with New York pulling out a pair of 4-3 extra-inning victories. However, his last time out, Burnett got rocked in Game 5 in Anaheim, yielding six runs – including four before recording an out in the bottom of the first inning – on eight hits in six innings, with New York erasing the 4-0 deficit but eventually losing, 7-6.
Prior to the Game 5 loss to the Angels, the Yankees had won five straight games behind Burnett and they’re 11-2 in his last 13 outings in the Bronx (3-0 last three). Including his two solid playoff starts at home, Burnett is 5-3 with a 3.38 ERA in 18 games at new Yankee Stadium, with New York going 14-4.
Burnett suffered a 7-3 home loss to the Phillies on May 22, getting crushed for five runs on eight hits (including three home runs) in six innings. He’s 5-8 with a beefy 7.50 ERA in 17 lifetime games (16 starts) against Philadelphia. In the last five starts versus the Phillies, Burnett surrendered 25 runs (23 earned) on 32 hits (seven home runs) over just 24 innings (8.63 ERA), with the Phillies going 4-1.
All four Yankees-Phillies games this season have stayed under the total, and the under is 8-1 the past nine meetings overall and 5-0 in the last five in the Bronx.
As a team, Philadelphia carries “over” trends of 18-7-2 overall, 6-2-1 in the playoffs, 13-4 on the road, 15-5-2 against right-handed starters, 3-1-1 on Thursday. However, the under is 10-2-1 in the Phillies’ last 13 interleague road games, 4-1-1 in their last six against the A.L. East, 10-4-1 in their last 15 as an underdog in interleague action, 4-1-1 in the World Series and 5-2 behind Martinez.
New York is on a slew of “under” streaks, including 7-2-1 overall, 11-1-1 at home, 8-2-2 against right-handed starters, 17-6 in interleague play, 16-6 versus the N.L. East, 14-3 in the World Series and 7-0 in World Series home games. Also, with Burnett on the mound, the under is on runs of 5-2-1 overall and 12-3-1 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
North Carolina (4-3, 1-4 ATS) at (14) Virginia Tech (5-2, 3-4 ATS)
North Carolina plays in the Thursday night prime-time spotlight for the second straight week, only hoping for better results this time around as it heads to Lane Stadium in Blacksburg for an ACC clash with the 14th-ranked Hokies.
The Tar Heels (0-3 SU and ATS in the ACC) squandered a 24-6 third-quarter lead last Thursday night to Florida State and fell 30-27 as a two-point home favorite. North Carolina’s normally stout defense got torched for 438 total yards (395 through the air), and despite a 238-43 edge in rushing, the Tar Heels suffered their third consecutive SU and ATS Division I-A loss, all to ACC foes, to remain winless in conference play.
Virginia Tech (3-1, 2-2 in the ACC) was idle last week as it recovered from a tough 28-23 setback at Georgia Tech as a 3½-point road chalk on Oct. 17. The defeat snapped the Hokies’ five-game winning streak (3-2 ATS) and continued their trend of alternating spread-covers over the past eight games. Against Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech QB Tyrod Taylor was 10-for-14 passing for 159 yards and a TD pass and added 63 rushing yards and another score, but he threw two interceptions as the Hokies held the ball for just 21½ minutes. Meanwhile, the defense got run over, surrendering 309 rushing yards.
North Carolina has split its two road contests (0-2 ATS), while Virginia Tech is unbeaten through four games at Lane Stadium (3-1 ATS).
The Hokies have won all five meetings in this series since joining the ACC in 2004, going 3-2 ATS. Last year, Virginia Tech rallied from a 17-3 third-quarter deficit to pull out a 20-17 victory as a 3½-point underdog, the only time in the last five meetings that the Hokies weren’t favored by double digits. In that contest, North Carolina QB T.J. Yates suffered a season-ending knee injury in the second half, and backup Mike Paulus came on and threw two critical interceptions that aided Virginia Tech’s comeback. The visitor has cashed in each of the last three meetings.
The Hokies have scored 23 points or more in all but one game this season and are averaging 32.6 points and 380 total yards per game, including 203.7 rushing ypg, which ranks 15th in the nation. Taylor is having a solid junior season, passing for 1,154 yards (57.6 percent completion rate) with nine TDs and three INTs, but his TD run against Georgia Tech was just his first of the season after tallying 13 rushing scores in his first two years.
Although fully recovered from last year’s knee injury, Yates has struggled throwing the ball, completing 59 percent of his passes for 1,028 yards with seven TDs offset by eight INTs, and last week against Florida State he was 12-for-25 for just 64 yards with a TD and an INT. Against ACC defenses, Yates is averaging just 106.3 passing ypg with two TDs and five INTs. As a team, North Carolina is putting up 23.1 points and just 289.3 total yards per game (128.7 rushing ypg), and the Heels have only managed 37 total points in their three conference defeats.
Both defenses have been solid, with UNC (16.4 ppg, 266.3 total ypg) holding a slight statistical edge over Virginia Tech (19.1 ppg, 317.4 total ypg). The big discrepancy is in rushing defense, with the Tar Heels allowing 102.6 rushing ypg (2.8 per carry), while the Hokies give up 150.3 ypg on the ground (3.9 per carry).
The Tar Heels are in ATS funks of 1-6-1 in the regular season, 1-4 on the road, 1-4 on Thursday and 1-5 in ACC play (0-3 this year), but they’ve cashed in eight of 11 after a non-cover and are 4-1 ATS in their last five as an underdog and 4-1-1 ATS in their last six when catching more than 10 points. Va-Tech has failed to cash in six of seven in October and nine of 13 as a chalk, but otherwise the Hokies are on pointspread upticks of 4-1 at home, 29-13 in conference, 7-2 against teams with a winning record, 4-1 on Thursday and 4-0 after an ATS setback.
The over is on runs of 5-1 with the Heels as a ‘dog, 4-1 with the Heels playing on Thursday, 5-2 for the Heels in October, 4-1 for Virginia Tech in October and 5-2 with Virginia Tech favored by more than 10 points. Conversely, UNC has stayed low in four of five on the road, and the Hokies are on “under” stretches of 15-5 at home and 10-1 on Thursday. Finally, the under is 4-1 in this rivalry since Virginia Tech joined the ACC.
ATS ADVANTAGE: VIRGINIA TECH and UNDER
NBA
San Antonio (1-0 SU and ATS) at Chicago (0-0 SU and ATS)
The Bulls take the court for the first time since their thrilling seven-game, opening-round playoff series against Boston as they host Tim Duncan and the Spurs at the United Center.
Chicago finished just 41-41 last year (42-39-1 ATS), but it was good enough for a second-place finish in the Central Division – 25 games behind Cleveland – and return trip to the playoffs as the No. 7 seed. Despite being an overwhelming underdog, the Bulls took Boston to the limit in the first round, going 3-1 in overtime games before eventually falling 109-99 as a 5½-point road underdog in the decisive Game 7. Chicago qualified for the postseason courtesy of a 12-4 SU run to close the regular season.
San Antonio opened the season with Wednesday’s impressive 113-96 rout of the Hornets, easily cashing as a 9½-point home favorite. Tony Parker (17 points) and Manu Ginobili (16) were among six players to score in double figures for the Spurs, who have now won 10 of their last 14 regular-season games, including the last five in a row. However, including the playoffs, the Spurs are still in an 8-15 ATS slump.
The Spurs have swept the season series from Chicago each of the last two years, going 4-0 SU and ATS (all as a favorite). The road team is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 head-to-head meetings, with San Antonio cashing in seven of its last eight trips to Chicago. Also, the SU winner has covered the spread in each of the last eight clashes.
San Antonio is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 overall (2-5 ATS last seven) and 7-13 ATS in its last 20 as a favorite, but it has covered in seven of its last 10 on the second night of a back-to-back situation. Chicago failed to cover in four of its final six regular-season games last year, but the Bulls went 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 contests versus the Western Conference last season, 4-0-1 ATS in their last five against Southwest Division foes, 5-1 ATS in their last six as an underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last five as a home pup.
The Spurs have topped the total in six of seven overall, but the under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 against the Central Division, 4-1 in their last five when playing on no rest and 6-2 in their last eight as a road chalk. For Chicago, the over is on runs of 4-0 overall (all as an underdog) going back to the playoff series against Boston, 4-1 against the Southwest Division, 7-3 against the Western Conference and 4-1 as a home ‘dog, but five of the Bulls’ last seven on Thursday have stayed low.
Finally, not only has San Antonio won and covered four straight meetings with Chicago, but all stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN ANTONIO
Denver (1-0 SU and ATS) at Portland (1-0 SU and ATS)
The Blazers look to open a season with consecutive wins for the first time since 2004-05 when they welcome the rival Nuggets to the Rose Garden for a Northwest Division clash.
Denver tipped off its 2009-10 campaign with Wednesday’s 114-105 come-from-behind home win over the Jazz, covering as a 5 ½-point favorite. Carmelo Anthony had a game-high 30 points and Chauncey Billups chipped in 25 for the Nuggets, who improved to 15-3 in their last 18 regular-season games (11-7 ATS). However, they’re just 4-3 SU and ATS on the road during this stretch, including a 104-76 loss at Portland as an 8½-point underdog in a meaningless regular-season finale.
Portland pounced on the Rockets in its opener Tuesday, jumping out to a 75-56 lead after three quarters and cruising to a 96-87 victory, barely covering as an 8½-point home favorite. Four Blazers players scored in double figures, with Travis Outlaw pouring in a game-high 23 points and star guard Brandon Roy chipping in 20 points, five boards and five assists. The Blazers have won seven straight regular-season games (6-1 ATS) and 11 of their last 12 (10-2 ATS).
Including Portland’s blowout home win in the regular-season finale, the home team (and favorite) won and covered all four Blazers-Nuggets battles in 2008-09. Still, Denver has owned this rivalry from a pointspread perspective, going 24-10-1 ATS in the last 35 series clashes, including 11-5-1 ATS in the last 17 at the Rose Garden.
Including the playoffs, Denver sports positive pointspread surges of 22-7 overall, 21-6 against the Western Conference, 6-1 on the road (all as an underdog) and 4-1 on Thursday. Meanwhile, the Blazers are on a 14-3 ATS run in the regular season, cashing in seven of their last eight at home. Portland is also on pointspread tears of 14-4 as a favorite, 8-2 as a home chalk, 4-0 against the Northwest Division, 4-1 versus Western Conference foes and 5-1 when playing on one day of rest, but it has failed to cash in nine of 13 on Thursday.
Denver is on “under” runs of 10-3 on the road (all as a ‘dog), 20-8 when catching points overall, and 6-2 when playing on back-to-back nights, but the over is 12-4 in its last 16 on Thursday. For Portland, the under is on stretches of 5-0 overall (playoffs included), 4-0 when playing on one day of rest and 12-3 against Northwest Division rivals. Lastly, all four of last year’s clashes between these teams stayed low, and the under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Portland.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Evan Altemus
San Antonio vs. Chicago
The Spurs looked like they are poised to be one of the best teams in the Western Conference this season after destroying New Orleans last night. The Spurs made terrific off-season acquisitions with the additions of Antonio McDyess and Richard Jefferson, as well as drafting DeJuan Blair. However, the biggest difference this season is that the Spurs now have a healthy Manu Ginobli and Tony Parker. Meanwhile, Chicago does not have Ben Gordon this season, as he went to Detroit in the off-season. I think his absence will have an impact early on for the Bulls while they try to get in-sync with a new starting line-up. Derrick Rose is also banged up heading into this game, even though he is expected to start. San Antonio was able to rest their starters in the 4th quarter last night, so the back-to-back games won’t affect them at all, especially since it’s only the second game of the season. San Antonio has also been a good road team over the last few years. I feel that there is a significant difference between the better teams in the Western Conference and the mid-level teams in the Eastern Conference. Look for the Spurs to get a dominant road win tonight.
4 UNIT SELECTION SPURS
San Antonio vs. Chicago
The Spurs looked like they are poised to be one of the best teams in the Western Conference this season after destroying New Orleans last night. The Spurs made terrific off-season acquisitions with the additions of Antonio McDyess and Richard Jefferson, as well as drafting DeJuan Blair. However, the biggest difference this season is that the Spurs now have a healthy Manu Ginobli and Tony Parker. Meanwhile, Chicago does not have Ben Gordon this season, as he went to Detroit in the off-season. I think his absence will have an impact early on for the Bulls while they try to get in-sync with a new starting line-up. Derrick Rose is also banged up heading into this game, even though he is expected to start. San Antonio was able to rest their starters in the 4th quarter last night, so the back-to-back games won’t affect them at all, especially since it’s only the second game of the season. San Antonio has also been a good road team over the last few years. I feel that there is a significant difference between the better teams in the Western Conference and the mid-level teams in the Eastern Conference. Look for the Spurs to get a dominant road win tonight.
4 UNIT SELECTION SPURS
TOM FREESE
UNC at Virginia Tech
Pick: Under 44
North Carolina is 7-2 UNDER thier last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and they are 4-1 UNDER their last 5 road games. The Tarheels are 4-1 UNDER as an underdog of 10.5 or higher and they are 4-1 UNDER their last 5 games vs. the Hokies. Virginia Tech is 10-1 UNDER their last 11 Thursday games and they are 18-5 UNDER their last 23 games vs. a team with winning road record. The Hokies are 13-5 UNDER their last 18 home games as a favorite and they are 6-2 UNDER their last 8 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their last game. 10* "NO BRAINER" PLAY ON 'UNDER'
Detroit Red Wings vs. Edmonton Oilers
Play: Over 5½
Detroit is 34-16-1 OVER when playing with one day of rest and they are 7-3 OVER their last 10 road games. The Red Wings are 19-9 OVER vs. Northwest Division teams and they are 7-3-1 OVER their last 11 games at Edmonton. The Oilers are 20-6-1 OVER vs. an opponent that scored 5 or more goals in their last game and they are 4-1 OVER when playing with one day of rest. Edmonton is 5-2 OVER after scoring 2 or less goals in their last game and they are 5-2 OVER on Thursday. 10* PLAY ON 'OVER'
UNC at Virginia Tech
Pick: Under 44
North Carolina is 7-2 UNDER thier last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and they are 4-1 UNDER their last 5 road games. The Tarheels are 4-1 UNDER as an underdog of 10.5 or higher and they are 4-1 UNDER their last 5 games vs. the Hokies. Virginia Tech is 10-1 UNDER their last 11 Thursday games and they are 18-5 UNDER their last 23 games vs. a team with winning road record. The Hokies are 13-5 UNDER their last 18 home games as a favorite and they are 6-2 UNDER their last 8 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their last game. 10* "NO BRAINER" PLAY ON 'UNDER'
Detroit Red Wings vs. Edmonton Oilers
Play: Over 5½
Detroit is 34-16-1 OVER when playing with one day of rest and they are 7-3 OVER their last 10 road games. The Red Wings are 19-9 OVER vs. Northwest Division teams and they are 7-3-1 OVER their last 11 games at Edmonton. The Oilers are 20-6-1 OVER vs. an opponent that scored 5 or more goals in their last game and they are 4-1 OVER when playing with one day of rest. Edmonton is 5-2 OVER after scoring 2 or less goals in their last game and they are 5-2 OVER on Thursday. 10* PLAY ON 'OVER'
Ron Raymond
Denver vs. Portland
Play: Over 199
When ANY NBA Team played as a +6.5 to +9 Road Underdog - Vs Conference Opponent - Last 5 years - Coming off 1 over - Scored 110 or more points FOR in their last game; the OVER is 26-15-1 for the Road Underdog in this role the last 5 years. Take the Over.
Denver vs. Portland
Play: Over 199
When ANY NBA Team played as a +6.5 to +9 Road Underdog - Vs Conference Opponent - Last 5 years - Coming off 1 over - Scored 110 or more points FOR in their last game; the OVER is 26-15-1 for the Road Underdog in this role the last 5 years. Take the Over.
Tony George
Philadelphia vs. Yankees
Play: Over 9
Both pitchers have a ton a pressure, Pedro for his remarks to the media, and Burnett who has not pitched well, and been lit up in key spots. The Yanks bullpen show weakness in Game 1 and while the Phillies did not use their bullpen, I think the Yanks heat up the bats tonight this one scores some runs. The Phillies scored 6 runs against a better starter and a stifled bullpen last night, I think this one is more of shootout.
Play 1 Unit Over
Philadelphia vs. Yankees
Play: Over 9
Both pitchers have a ton a pressure, Pedro for his remarks to the media, and Burnett who has not pitched well, and been lit up in key spots. The Yanks bullpen show weakness in Game 1 and while the Phillies did not use their bullpen, I think the Yanks heat up the bats tonight this one scores some runs. The Phillies scored 6 runs against a better starter and a stifled bullpen last night, I think this one is more of shootout.
Play 1 Unit Over
4 Unit Play. Take Under 9 between the Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Yankees (Thursday @ 8pm est). Ah, Pedro. Manuel has a flare for drama starting Pedro here in Game two. Frankly, its brilliant. Pedro feeds off energy. He needs motivation and he needs excitement to really get his juices flowing. He had that against the Dodgers facing Joe Torre and pitched a brilliant game. Why can't he do it here? Pedro certainly said that he was going to bring the "fear" to the Yankee fans and believe it or not, I have come to believe Pedro as when he says he is going to bring it, he will bring it. I expect the Yankees to be fired up over the Game 1 loss, but folks, these are the Philadelphia Phillies - the World Champs - who continue to feel disrespected here. This is a team that just knows how to win from top to bottom and they have a great catcher in Ruiz who calls a helluva game. He is far, and beyond the better player than Jorge Posoda. Yes, I said it. Ruiz calls a better game, bats over .300 in the post-season and is just an all around better baserunner and fielder as well. Yes, I said it. I like Burnett to pitch well for his ballclub today as he looks to help the Yanks pull this game out and for that reason I do like the Under as I think similar to game 1, it will be a pitcher's duel. Having said that, I look for the Phillies to possibl upset here in a 3-1 or 3-2 type of ballgame and the value is nice here with the Phils on the road. The Phillies have won their last 4 World Series games and they are 5-1 in their last six road games. Note, the Under is 9-0 in the Yankees last nine when they are favored by this margin and the Under is 7-1-1 when the Yankees are favored in the playoffs by this margin - and the Under is 12-3-1 in Burnett's last 16 starts at home.
1 Unit Play. Take Philadelphia Phillies +185 over the New York Yankees (Thursday @ 8pm est).
IC
1 Unit Play. Take Philadelphia Phillies +185 over the New York Yankees (Thursday @ 8pm est).
IC
