Service Plays Thursday 10/15/09

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Marco D'Angelo | MLB Money Line Thu, 10/15/09 - 8:05 PM

double-dime bet 951 PHI (+130) BetUS vs 952 LOS
Analysis: PLAY: PHILADELPHIA
RATING: DOUBLE DIME PLAY

The Dodgers swept ST. LOUI«S to advance but the fact is ST. LOUIS didn't play well at all in the final few weeks of the season and when Matt Holliday drop the game ending fly ball in Game 2 two ST. LOUIS was done. Philadelphia continued to scrap their way to this series coming from behind twice to win. The Dodgers send a young pitcher out to start Game One while Philadelphia counters with Cole Hammels. Expect Hamels to come up big as even though he hasn't been as dominate this year as last he still has owned the Dodgers as he is 4-0 against lifetime with a 1.64 ERA. In 2 starts this year Hamels has pitched 16 innings and gave up just 1 earned run. Philadelphia grabs game one. TAKE PHILADELPHIA as Marco's NL Insider Game of the Week.

Marco Rated this Play a 2 UNIT PLAY on his Executive Late Phone Service

 

[MikeJoe206]

U got the 3* as well, thanks

Rocketman 3*

It's On Montreal Sorry No Write Up As I Would Have To Buy The Play lol

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gamblers Data

DODGERS-112 4* action

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mike Lineback 10/15/09

4* Dodgers -135 Kershaw/Hamels

leans on Cincinnati Bearcats -2.5 and Phillies/Dodgers over 7 runs

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Iceman 5* Montreal

 

[cork999]

Karl Garrett
Karl Garrett 30 DIMER - CINCINNATI...10 DIMER - PHILADELPHIA (Hamels over Kershaw) 30 DIMER - CINCINNATI BEARCATS

Don't get sucked into backing the Bulls here, as I know the points look tempting, but there is a reason South Florida is catching a few here, and the main reason they are is that their QB Daniels is going to be a deer-in-the-headlights in this spot tonight.

Cincy senior QB Tony Pike is clearly the better of the 2 signal-callers on the field this evening, and I expect Pike to show his wares on a nationally televised stage.

The Bearcats have won the last 3 against the Bulls, and they have covered the last 5 against the Bulls.

I have watched enough of both teams to know that Cincinnati has played the tougher of the 2 schedules, and a closer look at South Florida's 5-0 mark shows early season wins over Wofford, Western Kentucky, and Charleston Southern. Not exactly a "powerhouse" trio of schools!

Highlly-impressed with Cincy's wins at Rutgers and Oregon State, and they did record double-digits in sacks last week against Miami-Ohio in a 24-point win, but non-cover as the 29-point favorite.

This is an impost the Bearcats can handle.

10 DIMER - PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (Hamels over Kershaw)

I just don't get the lack of respect the Phillies are getting in this game, but rather than question it, I will gladly take the plus-money on the defending World Series champs.

Philly easily dispatched the Dodgers in 5 games last October on this stage, and Cole Hamels has handled LA every step of the way. 2-0 regular season since 2008 in 4 starts, and 2-0 last October in the postseason with 14 innings of 1 run ball allowed.

Clayton Kershaw sports a sparkling ERA, but the Phillies haven't been bothered by him, as he is 0-3 the last 3 times he has faced them, 12 runs allowed in 16 innings of work.

Take the Phils!




BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED-------GL GUYS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

10/15 Royal Sports


NCAA Football Thursday 10* Play-Over Cincinnati/ S.Florida

 

[md75]

Prez

5* Phillies

LOL!

 

[fly73]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dr Bob

#21 S. FLORIDA 26 #8 Cincinnati (-2.0) 25
Over/Under Total: 48.5
04:45 PM Pacific Time Thursday, Oct-15

Cincinnati is one of the best teams in the nation so far this season, as the Bearcats have been very good on both sides of the ball while out-gaining their 4 Division 1A opponents 7.5 yards per play to 4.4 yppl. Those stats were posted against a decent schedule of teams that would combine to both average 5.3 yppl and allow 5.3 yppl to an average team. As good as the Bearcats have been this game figures to be a battle against a good South Florida team with a better than average offense and a very good defense. South Florida is not as good offensively as their 6.9 yppl average would indicate, as the 5 teams that they've faced would combine to allow 6.6 yppl to an average team. Dynamic freshman quarterback B.J. Daniels has been fantastic in 2 starts since taking over for injured senior veteran Matt Grothe, as Daniels has led the offense to 6.4 yppl in games against Florida State and Syracuse, who would combine to allow 5.8 yppl to an average team. Cincinnati's defense appears to have an advantage, but running quarterbacks like Daniels, who has 321 yards on 44 rushing plays, can create problems for even the best defensive teams.

If South Florida is to win this game it will be All-American DE George Selvie and the defense that will have to win the battle against Tony Pike and the potent Cincinnati attack. South Florida hasn't faced an offense as good as Cincy's, but the Bulls did limit a very good Florida State attack to just 4.5 yppl in a 17-7 road win a couple of weeks ago and the Bulls are in a very good situation tonight.

Cincinnati applies to a negative 34-85-2 ATS road letdown situation and 5-0 teams are just 94-151-2 ATS in their 6th game as a favorite of 2 points or more (1-2 last week with Auburn, Iowa, and Alabama). USF, meanwhile, applies to an 80-31-2 ATS home underdog momentum situation. The situations give South Florida a solid 55% chance of covering at a fair line and my math model says that the line is close to fair (it favors Cincy by 3 points). I will resist making USF a Strong Opinion here because Cincinnati coach Brian Kelly has a tendency to win competitive games. In fact, Kelly is 12-1 ATS in his coaching career in regular season games when the line is less than 7 points (dog or favorite), including wins this season at Rutgers and Oregon State. I would still rather have the home dog here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

GoodFella | CFB Side Thu, 10/15/09 - 7:45 PM
double-dime bet 106 South Florida 3.5 (-120) Bookmaker.com vs 105 Cincinnati
Analysis:
-I am personally buying the hook and playing it at +3.5 -120....I still do really like it at +3 as well, as I look for the outright win for South Florida Thursday Night, but for me I see value in laying -120 to get +3.5 for this particular game, and thats EXACTLY how I wagered the game for myself-

First off this is a payback game for South Florida, as they lost to Cincy 24-10 last season. This season, South Florida once again has one of the nation's top defenses, and it has been particularly tough on quarterbacks, holding them to two touchdowns while forcing seven interceptions. S. Florida defensive coordinator Joe Tresey spent the last two years as Cincy's defensive coordinator, so we have another Strong Edge IMO with him being VERY familiar with the Cincy ballclub and their tendencies. They will have their hands full with Cincy QB Tony Pike on Thursday Night. The Speed that South Florida has on defense, cannot be underestimated, and here are some #'s to back that up: South Florida ranks third in the nation in forced turnovers (16), fifth in scoring defense (9.4) and 10th iÐn total yards allowed (263.0), all very impressive numbers. Offensively, South Florida is led by freshman quarterback B.J. Daniels, who has started two games since senior Matt Grothe suffered a season-ending knee injury. Daniels has made an appearance in all five of South Florida's games, passing for 6 TD's, and only 2 INT's. Something to take nate of is this: Cincinnati has given up 33 points over its last two contests, & Bearcats opponents have held the ball for a nation-leading 36:08 per contest. I absolutely love South Florida in this SPOT tonight, as I have been very impressed with the young QB (Daniels) for South Florida, as he is very athletic and a legit dual threat who has made real good decisions so far. This once again is a NIGHT GAME on ESPN, in conference and a revenge game for South Florida, and the crowd will be in a frenzy, all edges for South Florida tonight. South Florida is 5-0 ATS L/5 as a underdog, and they are also 5-1 ATS L/6 games following a bye. South Florida is has alo reeled off 5 straight wins over "ranked" opponents. I really like South Florida tonight in this spot, and I look for the outright win, but will gladly take the points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim Feist

4* Over Dodgers
3* Dodger
4* Under S Fla

 

[CaliDreaming]

MATT FARGO
9* DODGERS

didn't know if this was posted already

 

[Henryjames]

igz1 sports

Thursday Late update
Wednesday Recap: 1-0 NHL / 0-1 CFB
7-2 Last 9 in the NHL
7-0 in the MLB Playoffs !

NHL
3* Colorado +125

NHL Daily Card updated with 5 plays
Bonus Play from the card is in the NHL

 

[marksdolphins]

Newyorksportsinvestors
S.Florida+2.5(pod)(Betonepicks)
Phillies+128

(BOL)Headed to the pool(<)<

 

[TMaN2000]

Save your money guys, Spartans big 12 goy is oklahoma state

 

[JPcards]

PickPerDay

Cincinnati Bearcats/S. Florida Bulls Under 48 1/2

Here is where a "professional" handicapper or tout service would give a long-winded writeup of a few key reasons why Team A should beat Team B. Most often, this is done not to show how well researched the pick is, but rather to give an excuse when the result they hoped for doesn't occur. Many tout services blame a losing pick on a player or team's performance, or even just the unlucky outcome of one particular play. We will not do that. Instead of writing here why we feel today's play is a winner, we're going to instead tell you the TRUTH. There are literally thousands of factors that could affect the outcome of a sporting event. We could list 100 reasons why Team A will beat Team B. Every single reason could occur and Team A could STILL lose, or not a single thing we prognosticate could occur, and Team A could STILL win. Picking the outcome of a sporting event is not a pure science. No matter how good a handicapper is, they will never be able to be certain of whether one team will beat another.

Every play we post is done so because we LIKE a particular team's chances, nothing more. We've done our research, but there is no point in delivering a long-winded explanation that won't matter in the least. We'll place our bet, cross our fingers, and hope for the best. Nothing more, nothing less

 

[slicks_one]

Spartan 3* BIG 12 GOY

OKLAHOMA ST. -7

BOUGHT by me, wishing luck on all those who are patient, and to all the others, who call names, what you call me now? im a prick, but saved you $25 bucks... prick

 

[fly73]

THE KING MAKER

They ran this game off the +3 at BetUS and now I see +2 and +1.5 all over the place, so it's lost a lot of its 10-Star Charm.

I need +3 if I'm going to grade South Florida as a play, but I may have to settle for +115....I'm going to wait and see what the sheep decide to do. Maybe we get lucky and they run Cincy up to a -3. If they do, then I'm sending an order in on South Florida +3......

The South Florida Bulls +3 MINIMUM on +3 (-110) for 5-Stars

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Benjamin lee Eckstein

Ben lee won on Sunday with the Angles +$120/R Sox.

For Thursday "Mr Chalk" likes the Phillies +$120/Dodgers.

"Mr Chalk" is 1-3 -$310 for the MLB postseason.

 

[fly73]

Rob Vinciletti

Cincinnati U vs. South Florida
Play: Under 49

The Bearcats have gone under in 16 of 19 October games over the years and have several solid under indicators that apply to them tonight. On Thursday nights Cincinnati has been an under team going under all 8 times. When installed as road favorites of 3 or less they have cashed 5 of 6 unders and 12 of 15 times when the line is +3 to -3 overall. Both teams have solid defenses. This should be a lower scoring game