Red Hott Locks
Coming into 2009, nobody expected Cincinnati to have a chance at winning the Big East and certainly didn’t expect the team to be undefeated after five games. Both doubts have come to fruition and the Bearcats have hopes of taking its second straight conference title. Even after losing 10 starters on defense, head coach Brian Kelly has orchestrated the No. 10 scoring defense in the country that yields a mere 13.8 ppg. The offense has been just as spectacular with Bearcats’ senior signal-caller Tony Pike transforming into one of the premier passers in college football. Pike leads the No. 3 scoring offense (42.0 ppg) and ranks No. 9 nationally in pass efficiency with a 159.9 passer rating (13 TDs, 3 INTs). Assisting in that department is wideout Mardy Gilyard. The senior has hauled in 38 balls for 517 yards and seven scores this season and should certainly be a first-day NFL Draft pick this offseason. This Cincinnati teams loves to throw the ball and gives Pike plenty of time having only surrendered four sacks all season. One concern for the Bearcats is managing the clock. Against Fresno State, Cincinnati only possessed the ball 16 minutes and versus Miami Ohio only 19 minutes. While a team doesn’t always have to win the TOP battle to be successful (especially with Cincy’s defense), controlling the clock can be beneficial when playing comparable teams like South Florida. Bearcats’ senior linebacker Curtis Young, who is the leader of the defense, is expected to return after missing the last three games after having knee surgery. The hybrid linebacker who can line up at defensive end, posted 9.5 tackles and a sack in the first two games.
When senior quarterback Matt Grothe tore his ACL in Week 3 and would miss the remainder of the season, everyone removed South Florida from the Big East contender equation. The Bulls hadn’t played a legit opponent and was facing Florida State the fourth week of the season with redshirt freshman B.J. Daniels making his first collegiate start. USF went to Tallahassee and shocked the Seminoles 17-7 behind the young quarterback. That marquee win looked great after FSU throttled BYU, but now not so much as the ‘Noles are struggling yet again. Daniels is a serviceable quarterback who can beat you with his arm and legs. He scrambled for 126 yards against FSU and 105 in the previous game. Emotional head coach Jim Leavitt isn’t putting too much pressure on the inexperienced QB, having only thrown a maximum of 21 passes in three games so far. The Bulls struggled with Syracuse through first half last week, only leading 14-13 at the break. And now the team will get a taste of its first real defense. It’s a good thing USF has a very good defense to counter. They have the No. 10-ranked total defense (263.0 ypg) and are giving up less than 10 points per outing. Led by a pursuant front four with defensive end George Selvie and tackle Terrell McClain, the Bulls are averaging almost three sacks per. In last week’s affair, USF forced the Orange into seven turnovers (5 INTs). But on the flip side, Tony Pike is a little more experienced than former Duke point guard Greg Paulus so don’t expect to see the Bulls’ defense to have as much success. Safety Jerrelle Young is questionable for the game after suffering a broken arm in Week 1 of the season. The secondary is already thin and will remain that way unless Young can play.
Coach Leavitt and Brian Kelly are intense coaches that will have their aggressive defenses geared up for this one. Both teams are coming off idle weeks so plenty of time to prepare for the conference matchup. The Bulls and Bearcats defenses are opportunistic with both in the Top 10 in the nation in turnover margin. The USF pass defense only gives up 158.2 ypg, but Pike’s short, quick passes over the middle can rack up a lot of yards in a hurry and the last two QBs South Florida has faced each have thrown for more than 250 yards. Last year’s contest between these two was a defensive battle, which could be expected again, with Cincy coming out on top 24-10. The Bearcats are tied for first place in the country in sacks, averaging more than 4.0 per game. Cincinnati should be able to fluster the freshman Daniels into a few turnovers, testing the USF offensive line (which lost four starters from a season ago) and winning a tough one in Tampa.
RHL Prediction: Cincinnati 28, South Florida 14