Black Widow
6* W id ow W is e g uy Big East "S TE AL" OF THE Y EA R on Cincinnati -2.5(-106 at 5dimes)
The Bearcats are an absolute steal Thursday as just a small favorite to beat South Florida. The Bulls don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with Cincinnati in this one, though both defenses are pretty evenly matched. Cincinnati is scoring 42.0 points/game and it's not like they have done it against easy opponents. The Bearcats are 5-0 with wins over the likes of Rutgers, Oregon State and Fresno State. South Florida's only good win this season came at Florida State, but the Seminoles are now 2-4 so how good of a win was that really? Cincinnati has won 3 straight over the Bulls and the Bearcats are 5-1 ATS against South Florida in their last 6 meetings. Cincinnati's defense is giving up just 13.8 points/game this season, including just 2.7 yards/carry on the ground. That is important because South Florida runs the ball 40 times/game, and that accounts for roughly 65% of their offense. No matter what anyone says, backup QB P.J. Daniels is not nearly the same caliber of player as starting QB Matt Grothe, who is out for the season with an injury. Daniels is completing just 57% of his passes while Grothe completed 73% of his attempts, and both have seen equal playing time to this point. Tony Pike is in the Heisman race by completing 67% of his passes for 1,492 yards and 13 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions. The Bulls have yet to see an offense anywhere near the caliber of this Cincinnati offensive unit. The Bearcats are 27-11-1 ATS in their last 39 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Bearcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games. The Bulls are 3-9 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Cincy is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) over the last 3 seasons. The Bearcats remain unbeaten as they prove they are the superior team Thursday. Take Cincinnati and lay the points.