EXPERT: Scott Rickenbach
TITLE: 78%! #1 SIDE OF PLAYOFFS 9*
REASON FOR PICK: Scott Rickenbach’s NHL (Top Play) Detroit Red Wings Money Line (+) @ Pittsburgh @ 8:05 PM ET – First off, Detroit is on an 18-4 ATS run in the Stanley Cup Finals. Of course, the best time to put a “streak” like this into play is when it can be combined with a situational edge. That is precisely the case tonight on Thursday as the Red Wings are a stellar 10-4 their last 14 games after losing a game by two goals or more. Of course, on Tuesday, they lost right here at Pittsburgh by a 4-2 count. Look for them to bounce back big here and we are very, very comfortable putting this combined 28-8 (78%) ATS run to work for us here!
Note that the Penguins truly had to win Game Three to make this series. While they did manage to get the win, what is most concerning is that, even though it was a must win and even though it was at home where the Penguins had the advantage in terms of the line change, note that the Red Wings actually dominated the first two periods! Detroit outshot Pittsburgh by a combined margin of 26 to 11. Give the Penguins credit for a huge third period where they outshot the Red Wings by a count of 10 to 3 and got the big goal needed (on a power play) for the win. However, also note that Detroit is very likely to approach Game Four with their most focus of this entire series and that’s bad news for a Pens team that was outshot 26 to 11 in those first two periods on Tuesday. The Red Wings have proven they can contain Sidney Crosby. They have shown that they are the better team around their own net – as was expected to be the case coming into this series. Also, Detroit has the added boost of a probable return of Pavel Datysuk tonight. Look for goalie Chris Osgood – solid so far in this series – to bounce back with a stronger effort in Game Four than he had in Game Three. The Penguins cycling has had some issues in the Detroit zone and, simply put, the Red Wings defense has been frustrating the Pens offense as the Pittsburgh system has failed to “crack the code” as of yet.
While coach Dan Bylsma has done a fantastic job since taking over the Penguins, the Pens have still been held “out of their game” so far in this series. They were fortunate to be tied up at two entering the third period on Tuesday and while the third period is impressive, we know exactly what should be expected from the Red Wings tonight! They do not want to see this series tied up and they know they can take a stranglehold on it by winning Game Four. Until mid-way through the third period in Game Three, the Penguins had only led the Red Wings for nine minutes of ice time this entire series. That says a lot right there and, unlike Tuesday, the Wings will have much more to show for the big edge in shots on goal in the first two periods of this one tonight. They’ve continued to adjust to what Pittsburgh brings and they’ve frustrated the Penguins and not allowed them much open ice. That trend continues here and the Red Wings bounce back from a rare, multi-goal loss with a big win! Play Detroit on the money line as a Top Play selection
PAID AND CONFIRMED BY ME