malinsky
#955 SAN FRANCISCO over COLORADO
Matt Cain is a lot better than Jason Marquis. The season-to-date
numbers do not necessarily show that, and the 5-1 Colorado win in San
Francisco in a hook up of these same starters on Saturday certainly
does not. But that sets us up with a nice underdog price that we
would not see otherwise, and we will not hesitate to take it.
Yes, Cain was roughed up by the Rockies in that last outing,
including a pair of Ryan Spillborghs home runs. But guys with his
kind of stuff are ideal bounce-back candidates off of a bad outing,
and note just how strong Cain was in this role LY ? he had seven
games in which he allowed five runs or more, and in the ensuing mound
appearance worked to a solid 2.25 over 48 innings. And behind him
will be a lineup that will be a little fresher than usual for a
night-to-day setting, with Edgar Renteria, Bengie Molina, Aaron
Rowand and Randy Wynn all have early exits in Wednesday?s blowout,
while the key arms in the bullpen were also saved.
Is there anything to fear in the 4-1/3.31 Marquis jump from the gate?
We don?t see it. Before joining the Rockies he had toiled at a 5.08
clip over 553 innings the past three seasons, when neither the
Cardinals nor Cubs saw enough in his stuff to keep him around. What
has happened so far has been more a tribute to the vagaries of
baseball than his actual work ? his strikeout rate is actually
lower than in those last three campaigns. But here is the rub
? there are 120 pitchers that have worked at least 25 innings so far,
and Marquis checks in at #114 in difficulty of batters faced, and
#111 on BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play). He has not been
anything special, and a guy allowing a lot of contact is not a prime
candidate to be successful at Coors Field, with all of that room that
has to be covered by the outfielders. And there are plenty of
late-game opportunities against a Colorado bullpen with nearly a full
run higher allowance than their Giant counterparts (4.84 vs. 3.94),
and one that is still searching to get the right fit from the
available candidates.
4* #963 CUBS over HOUSTON
Last night we had a prime spot to back Rich Harden in this matchup,
while also playing into a vulnerable Houston starter and a depleted
bullpen. This formula is the same.
Ted Lilly brings both good form and a chip on his shoulder to the
mound tonight, and that is a nice combination to have with a talented
performer. Although he was given credit for a win in his season
opener on this mound it was nothing to be proud of ? he was rocked
for four home runs in just five innings. We believe that was nothing
more than just an aberration. Since that game he has worked to a 2.02
tune over four starts, with 23 strikeouts vs. only 17 hits allowed,
and with only two of those hits leaving the park. And it is not as
though the Houston lineup or this venue should be cause for concern ?
the prior three seasons he has handled the Astros to a 3-0/1.89 tune
over five starts, including a 1-0/2.19 over 12.1 innings here. We can
call on him for a good outing tonight, and also to get plenty of
offensive support.
We are not sure that Russ Ortiz brings anything to create the belief
that he can still be part of a Major League rotation. Arizona let him
go after an 0-5/7.54 in 2006. Baltimore did the same after an
0-3/8.48 that same season. The Giants saw little reason to bring him
back after a 5.51 in 12 appearances in 2007. Yet Houston is desperate
for another arm, which is about all that he can bring. In three
starts he has lasted only 14.2 innings, throwing a laborious 311
pitches in those games, yet he somehow managed to walk away with a
pair of wins and a no-decision. That kind of fortune will not last,
particularly against a strong Chicago lineup that gets a second look,
after getting to him for five runs (four earned) in four innings of
an earlier relief appearance from this mound. And with Jose Valverde
and Doug Brocail on the DL, there is not much at all to fear from the
Houston bullpen for the latter stages.
4* #968 KANSAS CITY over SEATTLE
Yesterday we turned a 4* in this matchup at a short price range,
noting not only how bad Carlos Silva has been, but also that the
long-term prospects for these teams do not call for pricing at this
level. We believe that the Royals are for real, with enough talent to
compete in the A. L. Central all season, while the Mariners field a
lineup that just can not hold up over the long haul. So in a similar
price range we play again today.
Jerrod Washburn is commanding some respect in the line off of his
3-1/2.97 opening to the season, quite a contrast from the 23-43/4.55
in his first three seasons in a Seattle uniform. But we are not sure
there has been any real turnaround. There are 120 pitchers that have
worked at least 25 innings so far, and his difficulty of batters
faced checks in at #111, which paved the way for his decent bottom
line. And while he talked about a new sinker in his repertoire being
a big help in the spring, there is little evidence of it on the field
? in back-to-back outings he has had more fly ball outs than
strikeouts and ground outs combined, and you know by now our feeling
when we see a pitcher working with that kind of ratio. And with
Brandon Morrow and Shawn Kelley on the DL, the bullpen does not bring
any fears for the latter stages.
The Kansas City bullpen is laid out ideally here off of Sidney
Ponson?s strong Wednesday showing, and Brian Bannister can build a
bridge to that pen. Bannister does not throw the ball past hitters,
but he does bring command of the strike zone, and his 2-0/1.96
opening has him at the right confidence level. When facing a weak
offense it is all about making them put the ball in play to beat you,
and the Mariners are #13 in the A.L. in batting average, #12 in runs,
#12 in home runs and tied for 14th in walks. There just is not a
whole lot there.
#716 CLEVELAND over ATLANTA
So often the focus in terms of finding the edges needed to beat the pointspread come from a “Why” perspective, but in this case it is more of “Why Not”. We could repeat Tuesday’s 4* Cleveland analysis nearly verbatim here, and it holds up.
The Cavaliers have played nine home playoff games the past two seasons, and have out-scored the opposition by 15.4 per game. And once again let’s note that the tally includes a +40 in three home games against a Boston team that went on to win the NBA Championship. They coasted by 27 on Tuesday despite having to shake off the rust of having been idle for over a full week, and they got a convincing margin despite the fact that the starters only had to play 159 floor minutes. They shot well, but not remarkably (46.8 percent, 8-20 triples and 17-24 free throws), and the defensive outing was mediocre by their standards, allowing 43.8 percent from the field and 38.9 from 3-point range. Compare this to 47.8 home shooting during the regular season, 39.5 triples, 77.8 free throws, and defensive allowances of 41.6 from the field and 32.7 on triples. In other words, they got that blowout without doing anything all that special. Now they are back in more of a playing rhythm, and a fresh team with an outstanding focus and sense of purpose is not going to come out flat here.
Then there are the Hawks. They are 1-7 on the road in playoff games the past two seasons, and the defeats have come by margins of 34, 29, 27, 26, 24, 23 and 19. The average defeat in that span is almost double this pointspread, which shows how much difficult the markets are having getting away from basic power ratings and moving towards the true realities. The Hawks lack talent, depth, leadership and character, which explains not only how they fall behind by such margins, but also how they fail to respond after being knocked down. And when a team gets so accustomed to these beatings in can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, which we believe it really has for this group. Now they have to go forward with some difficult matchups, particularly from a defense that is just too soft to take the Cavaliers out of their preferred flow (only seven turnovers on Tuesday), and one that will be even worse without Al Horford at 100 percent.
We do not see any compelling reasons why Game #2 is any different from the opener of this series, and will ride the home team again to a decisive rout.
