Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY (Power Angle Play)
St Louis/ Pittsburgh Over 9.5
The Over is 11-4 in Pirates last 15 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200, while the Over is 21-8-1 in Cardinals last 30 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400 and 6-1-1 in Wellemeyers last 8 starts as a home favorite. Russ Olendorf has pitched very well for the Pirates in the early going, with a 3.48 ERA in his 5 starts, including a 2.70 ERA in his last 3 starts. Those last 3 starts produced 11 rpg. Today he will have his hands full with a St Louis offense that is 5th in hitting (.276) and 8th in scoring (5.5 rpg). The Cards also hit .299 and score 5.6 rpg at home. The Cards are 5th in pitching overall, but today they have their weakest satrter on the mound. Todd Wellemyer comes in with a 5.28 ERA in his 5 starts, including an 8.40 ERA in his 3 home starts. Todd/s last 3 starts have averaged 10.3 rpg, while his home starts have averaged 11.3 rpg. Todd does owns a 3.83 ERA in 7 starts vs the Pirates, but his last 3 starts vs them has produced 15.7 rpg. The Pirate offense has not been good this year overall, but they are due for a breakout game and should be able to tag Wellemyer for 4 or 5 runs, while the Cards will be able to put at least 7 runs on the board on their own. Cardinal home games have averaged 10.1 rpg, while their day games have averaged 11.3 rpg. I see at least 12 runs on the board in this one.
POWER ANGLE For The Play--- Since July 18th 2008 the Over is 14-2-1 when the Cardinals are facing a team that lost at least their last 3 games.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Atlanta/ Florida Under 9
The Under is 6-1-1 in Braves last 8 games as a favorite of -110 to -150, while the Under is 8-2-2 in Sanchezs last 12 starts following a team loss in their previous game. Anibalo Sanchex has not pitched well overall this year with a 5.46 ERA overall and a 7.84 ERA in his last 3 starts, but in his lone start this year he didn't allow an ER in 5 innings of work, plus he has a career 3.17 ERA at Dolphin Stadium. Despite his hig overall ERA his games have averaged just 7.4 rpg, with all 5 of his starts going under the total. Jair Jurrjens has pitched extremely well this year with a 1.89 ER overall, including an 0.45 ERA in his 3 road starts. Jair's games have averaged just 5.33 rpg overall and a mere 2.67 rpg on the road. The Braves have not been scoring runs for him this year as they have averaged 2.7 rpg overall for him, including just 1.67 rpg on the road. Atlanta has scored just 3.5 rpg vs righty starters this year, while the Marlins have averaged just 2.6 rpg in their last 5 games overall and just 2.9 rpg in their last 7 home games. Both pitchers have been involved in many low scoring games in the Early going and I see anoher on this afternoon.
Arizona/ San Diego Under 7:
The Under is 10-1-2 in Diamondbacks last 13 vs. National League West and 13-3-1 in Diamondbacks last 17 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, while the Under is 7-2 in Padres last 9 home games vs. a right-handed starter Under is 20-6 in Youngs last 26 home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Both of these teams are having serious problems at the plate right now, as the Pads come in hitting just .167 and scoring 2.6 rpg in their last 7 games, while the D-Backs are hitting just .207 and scoring 2.7 rpg in their last 7 games. Danny Haren has pitched very well for the D-Backs as he own a 1.47 ERA in his 6 starts and those starts have averaged a mere 4.17 rpg. Haren also has a 2.93 ERA in 7 starts vs the Padres, including a 2.63 ERA at Petco. Chris Young has struggled on the road this year, but at home he has a very nice 1.38 ERA in 2 starts, with those games averaging just 6.5 rpg. Petco is the 3rd lowest scoring park in the league and with 2 struggling offenses and some solid pitching on the mound, i see this one scoring about 5 runs at most.
2 UNIT PLAY
KANSAS CITY -118 over Seattle
The Mariners are 0-8 in Washburns last 8 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game, while the Royals are 10-1 in their last 11 games as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 16-5 in their last 21 vs. American League West. Jarrod Washburn is 8-5 with a 3.29 ERA in 16 starts vs the Royals, including a 6-1 mark with a 2.30 ERA in 10 starts at Kauffman Stadium, but these are not the same pathetc Royals the he has faced in the past. The Royals offense is getting better as they are now ranked 13th in scoring at 4.96 rpg thanks to hitting .310 and scoring 7.9 rpg in their last 8 games, plus they have hit lefty starters pretty well as they are hitting .288 and scoring 5.6 rpg vs them on the year. Seattle has put up just 4.7 rog in their last 7 and they have hit just .249 and have scored just 3.7 rpg vs righty starters on the year. That struggling offense must now take on Brian Bannister who is 2-0 with a 1.96 ERA overall, including 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA at home. Both teams are the suprise leaders in their divisions, but the Royals are the hotter team, with the better offense and the #1 ranked pitching staff in the league, plus playing at home doesn't hurt either. Look for that hot streak to continue.
1 UNIT PLAY
San Francisco +132 Over COLORADO
