Randall the Handle
New Jersey +1.02 over OTTAWA (REG)
Yes, the Sens have been playing a lot better since it hasn’t mattered but c’mon, there is just no way they should be favored here. The Devils are superior in every way and need only one more win to secure the #3 seed in the conference and they have a very remote chance of getting the #2 seed. The Sens are overvalued here due to three wins in a row but the three wins came against Philly in OT, a 3-2 win over Boston the game after Boston clinched the #1 seed and they’re coming off a 3-2 win over Montreal minus Schneider and Markov. The Devils lost to the Leafs 4-1 on Tuesday but out-shot Toronto 48-18. This is a Devils team that is not going to cruise into the playoffs. They need momentum and they’ll get it here against this vastly inferior squad. Play: New Jersey +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
Seattle/MINNESOTA over 9 +1.06
Two complete and utter stiffs will face off here and when you throw in two shaky pens and the Metrodome, it’s hard to imagine this one staying under this number. Glen Perkins went 12-4 last season but the only reason he did so was because of an average of 6.23 run support every time he took the mound. The fact is, lefties hit a whopping .352 off him and overall his BAA against was .301. In September of last year his ERA was over 7.00 and his WHIP was over 2.00. Jarrod Washburn isn’t much better and in fact could be worse. He was tagged in the spring to the tune of 51 hits in 30 innings to go along with a 6.60 ERA. Washburn went 5-14 last season with an ERA of 4.69 and that was after pitching half his games at arguably the best pitchers park in the majors. This ticket appears very likely to cash and frankly, I’d be a little surprised to even have to sweat it out. Play: Seattle/Minnesota over 9 +1.06 (Risking 2 units).
TEXAS –1.08 over Cleveland
Carl Pavano has barely seen the mound over the last five years and now he’s being asked to make his season debut against the powerful line-up of the Rangers. Pavano’s spring ERA was over 5.00 and the only reason he’s getting a chance is because the Indians got him to sign at the bargain basement price of 1.5M. One good inning in the majors gets you more than that. Furthermore, the Indians are 0-2 on the year, they’re not hitting and even with three Ranger errors and three walks yesterday they never really put a rally together. Brandon McCarthy is also a risk, as he has been plagued by injuries in whole brief career. However, he’s still young and he looked fairly sharp in spring, allowing just 20 hits in 22 innings. Ok, I can’t really give an edge to McCarthy over Pavano, as both could get slaughtered in this park, or any park for that matter. I can, however, give a big edge to the Rangers bats (they outscored Cleveland 17-6 in two games) and their bullpen and just in case it matters, McCarthy is 3-1 with a 2.36 ERA in five career starts against the Tribe. Play: Texas –1.08 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
Oakland +1.10 over L.A. ANGELS (1st 5 innings)
You gotta love Brett Anderson. Man, this kid has excelled everywhere he’s pitched and he has the poise and command that it takes to be successful at this level too. Remember, the A’s traded Dan Haren to get him so they knew they were getting something good in return. Anderson pitched at all three levels of Oakland’s minor league system and struck out 118 in 105 innings while walking just 27 and posting a 3.69 ERA. He also led the U.S. Olympic team to the bronze medal with a win over Japan. He continued that strong pitching into spring training, finishing 3-1 with a 2.83 ERA with 15 strikeouts and six walks in 28 2-3 innings. ESPN reports that he’ll work with four good pitches (fastball, curve, slider and change) and they also report that he’ll mix it up and knows exactly what he’s doing on the mound. The Angels will send out Jared Weaver and he’s been on the decline just about every month since his debut. His ERA has risen each of the two years since, finishing at 4.33 last season. The Angels have never faced Anderson and he has a great chance to excel in his debut. Play: Oakland in the first five innings +1.10 (Risking 2 units).