Service Plays Thursday 03/05/09

[JoeThePlumber]

Vegas Experts (tip of the day)

Louisiana Tech has been a great spread team all season long, covering 17 of 23 games overall. Most of that damage has come in the underdog role (12-5 ATS) and on the road (10-2 ATS). They have been getting points in every road game this season, so these four or so points look quite attractive tonight. This is particularly true because Idaho is a hideous 0-7 ATS at home coming off a SU win. Tech has covered each of its last seven lined games.

Play on: Louisiana Tech

 

[Hap]

Seabass Steam 100 Denver in a blowout

 

[bbrett3]

Al DeMarco
Thursday's Pick 10 Dime - South Carolina

Tennessee barely got by Miss State at home (81-76 laying 8') and beat an average Florida team in Gainesville its owned over the years prior to arriving in Columbia tonight where the Gamecocks are 16-1 SU on the season and seeking their first undefeated SEC home campaign since 1997. The Volunteers have not won three straight conference games all season.

Prior to their mini two-game winning streak, Tennessee had gotten crushed at Kentucky (77-58) and at Ole Miss (81-65). That's the same Kentucky team South Carolina destroyed at home last Wednesday 77-59, and the same Ole Miss squad the Gamecocks beat in late January at home by 11.

The season's first meeting went to Tennessee 82-79, a game in which the Vols led by as many as 19 points in the first half and 17 with 8 1/2 minutes remaining before South Carolina woke up and nearly pulled off the furious comeback, taking advantage of Tennessee's careless ball-handling as it converted 22 turnovers into 25 points.

South Carolina is a big, physical team, the type that gives Tennessee match-up problems, and one that is coming off a 16 blocked-shot performance in its victory against Kentucky last week.

Tennessee is just 7-6 SU on the road this season - allowing 76 points an outing - heading into this near pick'em game, which is expected to be played before South Carolina's third sellout of the season and fourth in the past seven years overall.


b>Speaking of the line....</B> As I post this play late Thursday afternoon, South Caroina is between -1 1/2 and -2.

My advice: If you've got South Carolina at -1 1/2, buy down the 1/2 point, making the Gamecocks -1 so you get the win should they prevail by two or a push if they win by one.

At -2, don't do anything, but if the line goes to -2 1/2, even after shopping around, buy down the 1/2 point to make South Carolina -2 so you get a push should the Gamecocks only win by two.

With that being said above, don't for a minute think that I don't realize that I'm asking you to spend additional funds - over and above the purchase of this selection - to essentially buy insurance on this pick. Myself, to be honest, I feel that the breaks always even out over the course of the year and in such situations it's a 50-50 proposition. Obviously there are no guarantees in gambling, but again, when you have the chance to hedge the odds in your favor for a small cost, it's worth the investment

 

[SteveMcQueen]

Kindergartencapper

Temple under 62 FH
Ohio under 127
Arizona over 143
Long Beach St. under 138
UC Davis over 153

 

[SteveMcQueen]

4 Unit Play. #707. Take Providence +10.5 over Villanova (Thursday @ 7pm est). I'm glad we cashed with the 5* on Missouri as that is now 6 straight 5* Winners as we come off December cbb gom, Jan cbb gom, Feb cbb gom and March cbb gom winners. We are 5-1 on the week and 6-2 in March so let's keep our "Madness" run going. You can probably get 11 for this line if you wait or shop around. But, I see mostly 10.5 with spotted "11's" so just wait as the public will likely raise this price higher which is fine as we take the underdog. I like the fact that Villanova comes off such a huge and dominating win over Notre Dame on the road. No, Providence is not ranked 16th in the country like Nova is and no, Providence is not 12-5 in the conference like Nova nor do they get anywhere close to the press coverage. But, yes, this Providence did take 'Nova to the wire earlier this year losing 91-94. In fact, in that game, Nova was up at the half 49-34 only to see that lead dwindle as Providence made a spirited comeback. Granted, if Nova was coming off a loss to Notre Dame, I would have stayed away from this game. But, Nova comes off a big 17 point win at the eyes of the public after the outright loss to Georgetown at home which undoubtedly stung for this team. Heck, GT had 25 turnovers and still managed to win the game and for a team that learns discipline from a solid coach, this was hard to take. Hence, their big win at Notre Dame. I understand it is senior night, but coming off such a big win over Notre Dame, I think this is a wash. Tack on the fact that Providence has gained confidence from what they did right in the second half against this team at home, plus, the fact that this Friar team is playing better defeating Pittsburgh and their #1 ranking 81-73 at home and following it up by not having a let down and defeating Rutgers on the road sweeping them on the season. I'm not taking anything away from Nova, but I think Providence will sneak inside the number here as Villanova has not covered back to back games since February 10th. The Friars are 9-4 ATS as underdogs of 7 to 12 points and the Wildcats are 1-4 ATS when facing teams with a road winning % of less than 40% - meaning they have trouble covering big spreads at home.

Good Luck,
Indian Cowboy.

<!--StartFragment --> 4* NBA: Dallas +6.5

 

[SteveMcQueen]

Nashville Predators -140
Total Goals Over 5.5
New Orleans Hornets -6

Thanks and good luck!
Al
Pro Picks Online

Sorry... The Total Goals Over 5.5 is on the Calgary/Philadelphia game.

 

[lastguyoffthabench]

Bob Valentino
Thursday's 25 Dime NBA winner 25 DIME -- DENVER NUGGETS (minus the points vs. Blazers)




Thanks bbrettt... almost bought DeMarco 1 minute after you...

 

[ALSportsJunkie]

ADAMWINS.COM PLATINUM PLAYS (Leibman is 20-7-1 with his last 28 NHL selections, the other guys all suck - beware.)

[ NCAA ]

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Adam Meyer​

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[Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 7:00 PM]
South Carolina (-1.5 Points) vs. Tennessee
The winner of this game will earn at least a share of the SEC East title and control its own destiny for the East’s top seed in the up-coming SEC Tournament. Devan Downey, one of the best players in the SEC leads South Carolina with a 20. 2 PPG average. The difference here is the better guard play of the Gamecocks and the home court, where South Carolina is 16-1. Tennessee is just 5-5 on the road.
Play: South Carolina (-1.5 Points)

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Steve Liebman​

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[Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 7:00 PM]
Temple (-6.5 Points) vs. St. Joseph's
Temple has beaten St. Joe’s on the road in a close game,61-59. Temple is 8-2 at home and it’s Senior Night for their star, Dionte Christmas and the other Owl seniors. The Owls get a nice Atlantic 10 victory at home over an inconsistent St. Joseph’s squad. Merry Christmas, Dionte.
Play: Temple (-6.5 Points)

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Sam Cheng​

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[Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 10:30 PM]
California (+4.5 Points) vs. Arizona
While Arizona could use another win against a good team to solidify its March Madness position, they have NOT been playing well lately having lost three games in a row. They lost to Cal on the road 69-55 earlier in the year. They have fallen off somewhat on defense lately and a good California team may win this one outright. Don’t be surprised if they do.
Play: California (+4.5 Points)

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New York Rangers vs. New York Islanders
With the trading deadline here and gone, the one thing for sure is that Yann Dannis has been great in goal for the Islanders. He’s given up only 6 goals in his last 5 starts. The under stats are amazing for this contest: The under is 14-2 in the Rangers’ last 16 road games and the under is 10-4 in the Islanders’ last 14 home games. The Under is 9-1-1 in the last 11 meetings in NY.
Play: Under 5.5 Goals

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[Hap]

Dr Coglye 12* Cal/Phl over 5.5

 

[Hap]

Seabass

100 Minn under NHL
100 Portland under NBA
100 Steam Denver in a blowout

CBB

50 Ill, AZ St, SC,
30 XU
20 CSNorthridge

 

[CaliDreaming]

C Jordan
400 Wichita State
100 Under South Carolina

 

[jacksonwaction]

Filling in for Chuba Cogyle 12* Phila over 5.5......Bond 12* Dallas over 194.....Guru 12* on LTech +4.....VIP Denver -7

 

[SteveMcQueen]

<!--StartFragment --> 4* NBA: Dallas +6.5

4* NBA: Dallas +6.5


Make that 5 straight NBA Winners for us as we have won 5 straight days in the Association. Let's go for #6 in a row and keep a perfect March as we are 4-0 in March NBA today as we look to cash with the Mavs on the road at New Orleans. I will tell you right off the bat that I have been hard on the Mavs all year long. I think Devin Harris is the far better player than Jason Kidd and I think Cuban is a fool for giving up Harris for Kidd. Having said that, I think Dallas is going to show up big today in New Orleans for several reasons. For starters, people have forgotten about Dallas a bit and they are playing with a chip on their shoulder. Remember, when we think of the West, we do not think of the Mavericks anymore and rightfully so. But, also bear in mind, that when Dallas is healthy, and that includes having Kidd and Howard both in ballgames, they be potent. Keep in mind Jason Kidd needs to take part in the scoring as he cannot have all the work go toward Dirk, Howard and Terry off the bench. Now, Kidd did score 17 points against the Spurs and this is why the Mavs beat them. Kidd needs to step up once again tonight. But, more importantly, the last time these two teams played, Dallas went into the half up 56-51. But, the Mavs collapsed and ended up losing 97-104. Why? Well, because this team did not have Howard that game and therefore, their legs were tired and the key players in Dirk, Terry and Kidd had to take more of the load. Consequently, this team failed. Remember, the Mavs are not like the Lakers who have an endless sea of quality players off the bench it seems. The Mavs need to have all four, and all four healthy to be potent like they were against the Spurs. Howard came back and has been playing well as he was key to the Spurs win the other day scoring 29 points and picking up 7 boards in the process. Look for Howard to have a big game and for him to make the difference. Remember, the Mavs lost by 7 to the Hornets without Howard - imagine what they will do with Howard - with revenge. I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see the Mavs win this game Outright on the road as I have that as 40% possibility, but I will gladly take the offered points as well. The Hornets cannot be trusted laying points as they are 0-4 ATS when laying 5 to 10 points as this team is infamous for letting teams back into the game - just check the Bucks game at home the other night. Dallas will be coming all night long with that revenge after they took the home loss to the Hornets just earlier this year.

 

[SteveMcQueen]

Alan Boston- from ESPN.com - magazine section

Penn State
Drake

The Matchup: Penn State plus-1.5 against Illinois

When these teams met earlier in the year at Illinois, Penn St. won the ugly affair 38-33. The knee-jerk reaction is that it is revenge time for Illinois. Revenge, to me, is not a viable angle. With a win, Penn St. thinks it is in the NCAA tourney. The Nittany Lions will pour their heart and soul into tonight's game. If they are good enough to win at Illinois, why can't they win at home? They handled Purdue at home, so Illinois is definitely beatable. With the energy of the crowd, the emotion of many seniors playing their last home game and the NCAA bid on the line, I feel Penn St. gives 150% effort. That should be good enough. Take Penn St. plus-1.5 against Illinois.


The Matchup: Drake minus-3 against Indiana State, in St. Louis.

This is a play-in game for the Missouri Valley Conference tournament. My number is Drake minus-5, so automatically I would be betting Drake. Now these two teams have already played twice. In the first game Drake was a 13.5-point favorite at home and won 69-50. Less than a month ago they were 3.5-point favorites at ISU and lost 69-57. What's happened here is ISU played great the past few weeks and the linemakers have totally overreacted. Consider the four-points for every home game rule and Drake should have been a 9.5-point fave on a neutral court the first game and a 7.5-point fave the second game. In this game, which is actually on a neutral court, five makes more sense. I think Indiana State is more likely to revert to the team it had been the whole year than what it's been the past couple of weeks. People are being smokescreened by the fact they've been winning. As a result I will go with Drake minus three and I suspect it will be an easy one

 

[SteveMcQueen]

Bob Valentino
Thursday's 25 Dime NBA winner 25 DIME -- DENVER NUGGETS (minus the points vs. Blazers

 

[SteveMcQueen]

Jack Clayton Guaranteed Selections

4* Wichita State

Have to back Wichita State in this one. SW Missouri State has been a money-burner all season and comes into this tourney on a 1-6 skid. The No. 7 seeded Wichita State Shockers have been on a roll, winning nine of their last 13 games. This Wichita team is very balanced, with strong guard play behind Clevin Hannah and Toure' Murray, plus a strong frontcourt in J.T. Durley and Ramon Clemente. Play Wichita State!

 

[Topgun68]

Kelso:

25 units: University of Southern California
10 units: Buffalo
5 units: South Carolina

 

[SteveMcQueen]

HARVEY SLAVIN

New York Rangers vs. New York Islanders
With the trading deadline here and gone, the one thing for sure is that Yann Dannis has been great in goal for the Islanders. He’s given up only 6 goals in his last 5 starts. The under stats are amazing for this contest: The under is 14-2 in the Rangers’ last 16 road games and the under is 10-4 in the Islanders’ last 14 home games. The Under is 9-1-1 in the last 11 meetings in NY.
Play: Under 5.5 Goals

 

[SteveMcQueen]

djd

NCAAB

Wichita State -2½ -120 vs Missouri State 2 units
Drake -2½ -120 vs Indiana State 2 units
Illinois/Penn State Over 116½ -120 2 units
Stanford/Arizona State Over 132½ 2 units
Stanford team total Over 61½ 2 units



NBA
Portland Trailblazers +7½ -120 vs Denver Nuggets 1 unit

NHL

New York Rangers/New York Islanders Under 5½ -130 1 unit



Yesterdays Recap

4-5-1 +.90 units

Mydollarpicks.com

 

[Hip2Bsq]

SportsMemo Bonus Play

Long Beach -2.5