THE SPORTS ADVISORS
Dayton (24-5, 11-13 ATS) at (17) Xavier (23-5, 14-10-2 ATS)
Xavier goes after its third straight win and looks to avenge its first conference loss of the season when it takes on the Flyers at the Cintas Center in a meeting of two of the top three teams in the Atlantic 10.
The Musketeers have had a week off since rolling over St. Joe’s 68-54 as a 3½-point road chalk last Thursday, notching their second straight win (1-0-1 ATS) after a 1-3 SU and ATS hiccup. Xavier, which is 13-1 SU (5-5-2 ATS) on its home floor this season, is outscoring its opponents by an average of more than 10 points per game (73.1-62.7), but that margin increases to 16 ppg at the Cintas Center, where the Musketeers put up 75 ppg and allow 59.
The Flyers topped Temple 70-65 as a 2½-point home chalk Saturday, covering for the second straight outing and ending a two-game SU skid in the process. Dayton is on a 10-3 SU stretch but has gone just 6-7 ATS in that span. For the season, the Flyers are averaging 67.6 ppg and giving up 60.4 ppg, but on the road, they’ve been narrowly outscored by an average final of 68.5-66.2.
Xavier leads the A-10 with an 11-3 SU record, (8-4-2 ATS), including a 7-0 SU and 4-1-2 ATS mark at home. Dayton, meanwhile, is third in the league at 10-4 SU (6-8 ATS), including 3-4 SU and ATS on the road.
Dayton pounded Xavier last month 71-58 as a three-point home pup. The Flyers have cashed in the last two meetings in this rivalry (1-1 SU), following a five-game SU and ATS run by Xavier. Despite last month’s upset, the favorite is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 clashes in this rivalry, and the Musketeers are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings at the Cintas Center.
The Musketeers are on positive pointspread runs of 10-4-2 overall, 4-1-2 at home, 6-1-1 on Thursday, 7-2-1 against winning teams, 7-2 after a spread-cover and 9-3-1 after a SU win. The Flyers are on ATS upticks of 5-1 against winning teams and 7-3 on the road versus teams with a winning home record, but they also carry negative pointspread trends of 1-7 on Thursday, 2-6 after a SU win and 2-5 after a spread-cover.
The under for Xavier is on rolls of 5-0-1 overall (all in the A-10), 5-1 on Thursday and 4-1 against winning teams, and the under for Dayton is on runs of 4-1 against winning teams and 8-3 on Thursday. In addition, the total has stayed low in four of the last five meetings in this rivalry. But the over is on a 12-5-1 streak for the Flyers in Atlantic 10 action.
ATS ADVANTAGE: XAVIER and UNDER
(23) Illinois (23-7, 15-10-1 ATS) at Penn State (20-9, 12-9-1 ATS)
Illinois looks to keep its Big Ten road success going when it travels to State College for a meeting with Penn State, which is looking to sweep this season series and bolster its NCAA Tournament hopes.
The Fighting Illini came up short to then-No. 9 Michigan State on Sunday, losing 74-66 as a two-point home favorite to slow a 5-1 SU surge in Big Ten play (4-2 ATS). On the road this season, Illinois has been outscored by an average final of 63.1-60.2, going 5-4 SU and ATS in the process. But the Illini have won their last three Big Ten roadies (2-1 ATS), putting up 65 ppg and allowing 59.7.
Penn State barely held off Indiana 61-58 Saturday but failed to cover as an overwhelming 14-point chalk for its second consecutive ATS setback. Although the Nittany Lions are 7-4 SU in their last 11, they’ve gone just 5-6 ATS in that stretch, all within the Big Ten. Penn State is averaging 66.1 ppg and allowing 61.4 for the season, but the Nittany Lions get a slight boost at home, scoring 67.3 ppg and yielding 58.2.
Illinois is 11-6 SU in the Big Ten this season (9-7-1 ATS), including 4-4 SU and ATS on the road. Penn State is 9-7 SU (8-7-1 ATS) in league play, going 6-2 SU and 4-3-1 ATS at home.
Penn State has ripped off five straight spread-covers (3-2 SU) in this rivalry, all from the underdog role, including an ugly 38-33 road win catching 9½ points three weeks ago. The visitor is now 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings, though Penn State is 4-2-1 ATS in the last seven battles in State College.
The Illini are just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 Thursday starts, but they are on ATS rolls of 6-1 after a SU loss, 8-2 after a non-cover and 15-7-1 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. The Nittany Lions are on ATS runs of 4-0-1 at home against teams with a winning road record and 7-3-1 coming off a pointspread loss, but they are also just 2-5 ATS in their last seven overall, all in conference play.
The under for Illinois is on a bundle of tears, including 11-3 overall (all in the Big Ten), 4-0 on Thursday, 5-1 on the highway and 9-2 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Likewise, the under for Penn State is on streaks of 5-2 overall and 8-3-1 on its home floor. Finally, the last meeting between these two fell miles short of the 123-point posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
California (21-8, 15-11 ATS) at Arizona (18-11, 17-11 ATS)
Two struggling teams needing to firm up their postseason credentials square off when Arizona plays host to California at the McKale Center.
The Wildcats dumped both games on their trip to the Pacific Northwest last weekend, losing to Washington State 69-53 as a three-point underdog last Thursday, then falling to No. 21 Washington 83-78 as an eight-point pup Saturday. Arizona has now lost three in a row (2-1 ATS) following a seven-game SU win streak (6-1 ATS). Returning to Tucson may help, as the Wildcats are 14-2 on their home floor, averaging 75.6 ppg this season while allowing 65.2.
The Golden Bears got a split at home last weekend, edging USC 81-78 in overtime laying four points, then coming up just short to UCLA 72-68 as a 2½-point pup. Cal, which has followed a four-game SU and ATS surge with a 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS skid (all in the Pac-10), is 1-4 SU and ATS in its last five conference road games, averaging 65.8 ppg and giving up 70.8.
Arizona is 8-8 SU (10-6 ATS) in Pac-10 play this season, including 6-1 SU and ATS on its home court. California is 10-6 SU (8-8 ATS) in league games, with a 3-4 SU and ATS road record.
Arizona is on a 4-1 SU run (3-2 ATS) in this rivalry, though Cal rolled 69-55 as a 4½-point home chalk in early January. In fact, the favorite is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
The Wildcats are on ATS upswings of 5-1 overall (all in the Pac-10), 5-0 at home, 7-1 against winning teams, 6-0 against teams with a winning percentage above .600, 11-4 after a SU loss and 5-2 after a spread-cover. On the flip side, the Golden Bears are on ATS dips of 1-6 after a non-cover, 1-4 on the road, 1-4 after a SU loss and 2-5 against teams with a winning percentage above .600.
The over for Arizona is on tears of 5-1 overall, 5-0 at home, 11-2 against winning teams and 23-11 on Thursday, and the over for Cal is on streaks of 20-9 on the road, 4-1 on Thursday, 12-4 against winning teams and 24-8 on Pac-10 play. Also, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in 12 of the last 16 meetings overall and six of the last eight in Tucson.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA and OVER
NBA
Dallas (37-24, 29-32 ATS) at New Orleans (37-22, 24-33-2 ATS)
The Hornets go after their sixth consecutive win when they play host to the Mavericks in a Southwest Division battle at New Orleans Arena.
New Orleans swept a two-game road trip earlier this week, edging New Jersey 99-96 Sunday as a 4½-point chalk and beating Philadelphia 98-91 Monday giving two points, with the spread-cover against the 76ers halting a five-game ATS slide. The Hornets have been pulling out close victories throughout their five-game surge, winning each game by seven points or less – including a one-point win and a pair of three-point victories – while outscoring opponents by an average final of 98.8-94.6. However, Byron Scott’s squad is just 5-4 SU and 3-6 ATS in its last nine at home.
Dallas upended San Antonio 107-102 as a three-point home favorite Wednesday, and the Mavericks have now alternated ATS wins and losses over their last 12 games. On the road this season, the Mavericks are averaging 97.3 ppg while allowing 99.0, and Rick Carlisle’s club is in an 0-4 SU and ATS rut on the highway, losing all four contests by seven points or more. Finally, the SU winner has cashed in each of the Mavericks’ last 10 as a visitor and 20 of their last 21 on the road.
New Orleans has won three in a row in this divisional rivalry (2-1 ATS), but this is only the second time this season these teams have met, with the Hornets posting a 104-97 road win as a 4½-point chalk in January. Dallas is 1-4 ATS in its last five trips to the Big Easy, the favorite is 7-2 ATS in the last nine clashes and the home team is on a 7-3 ATS run.
Along with their current 1-5 ATS slide, the Hornets are in pointspread ruts of 1-4 in the Western Conference and 3-12 in Thursday games. Likewise, the Mavericks are on several ATS slides, including 0-4 on the road, 1-4 in division play, 1-4 against winning teams and 6-21 on Thursday.
The under for New Orleans is on a 9-3 run against division foes, and the under for Dallas is on rolls of 9-4 playing on no rest, 5-1 on the road and 4-2 in the Southwest Division. However, the over for the Hornets is on streaks of 12-4 against the West and 8-3 on Thursday, and in this rivalry, the total has gone high in four of the last five meetings in New Orleans.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS
Portland (38-22, 31-29 ATS) at Denver (39-22, 32-28-1 ATS)
The surging Trail Blazers head to the Mile High city to take on the Nuggets in a Northwest Division clash at the Pepsi Center.
Portland followed up Sunday’s 102-84 thumping of the Spurs by barely getting past the Pacers 107-105 last night, overcoming an eight-point deficit in the fourth quarter but failing to cover as a 10-point home chalk. The Blazers are now 13-5 SU and 11-7 ATS in their last 18 outings. However, Portland is under .500 on the road this season (13-17 SU, 12-18 ATS), including dropping five of their last six as a visitor (2-4 ATS) while averaging 95 ppg and allowing 98.3 ppg.
Denver, with leading scorer Carmelo Anthony sitting out because of a one-game, team-issued suspension, lost at Detroit 100-95 as a three-point road pup Tuesday night, dropping the Nuggets to 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in their last seven starts, including back-to-back losses and non-covers. On the year, Denver has averaged 102.8 ppg and given up a shade less at 100.4, though the margin has been slightly more comfortable at home, where the Nuggets average 105.1 ppg and yield 100.3 in posting a 22-7 record (16-12-1 ATS).
These teams split a home-and-home series on back-to-back nights in December, with Denver winning 97-89 as a 2½-point home favorite and Portland prevailing101-92 giving eight points a night later. The underdog is 22-10-1 ATS in the last 33 clashes, but the Nuggets are on ATS rolls of 23-9-1 overall in this rivalry and 12-5 at the Pepsi Center.
The Blazers are on ATS upswings of 5-2 overall, 4-1 in division play and 5-2 against winning teams, but they also carry negative ATS streaks of 6-13 on the road and 2-5 going on no rest. The Nuggets are on a 1-5 ATS skid playing on one day’s rest, but they are on positive pointspread runs of 11-5 on Thursday and 5-1 at home against teams with a losing road record.
The under is 8-1 in Portland’s last nine division games and 4-1 in Denver’s last five against winning teams. However, the over is on rolls for Portland of 5-1-1 overall, 7-3 on the road and 5-0 against teams with a win percentage above .600, and the over for Denver is on runs of 13-6 in the division and 6-2 following a day off. Finally, the total has hurdled the posted price in nine of the last 12 series meetings between these rivals at the Pepsi Center.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
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Craig Davis 
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