NITE OWL SPORTS
Los Angeles Lakers @ Boston Celtics - Sunday June 13, 2010 8:05 pm
2 units TOTAL: Over 187 (-110)
We like the OVER here as a line value play. And for that good line value we thank the so-called “betting public” which comes “out of the wood work” in the late NBA playoff rounds every year and collectively bets/loses millions of dollars on the NBA finals and is both fickle and impressionable, as are most of the “talking heads” on ESPN and other sports networks who they often rely on. As a result, the betting public (or the “masses of asses,” as we prefer to call them) were all over the Lakers in game two, with many predicting a four game sweep. But after Boston’s strong performance in game two in LA, the pendulum swung the other way, with most of that same betting public liking Boston at home in game 3, with game two freshest in their minds, and having been reminded by those “talking heads” that in beating the Lakers 4-2 in the June 2008 finals, the Celtics were 3-0 both SU and ATS in the 3 games at home, including a blowout in the game 6 finale. Then Boston not only gave back their home court advantage in losing game 3 but also looked bad in doing it, particularly Ray Allen, who went from the penthouse in game 2 in LA (with 32 points and a record-setting 8 treys) to the outhouse in game 3 at home, with just 2 points on an ugly 0-13 shooting night that included 0-8 on trey attempts. So after the first 3 games, the “popular team” was 0-2 SU and ATS (in games 2 and 3), followed by the support being pretty evenly divided for game 4, as it is for this game 5 (which it should be, with this being an absolutely must win game for Boston but also a very important game for Lakers, as they don’t want to be headed home trailing 3-2 and one “off game” away from elimination).
Similarly, with the under cashing in 3 of the 4 games so far, and in both games 3 and 4 in Boston, also the site for game 5, the generally “over-oriented” betting public has jumped on the under “band wagon” and has driven the totals line down from 190 in game 4 to 187 for game 5 after two days of lines having been posted for this game (the game 5 total opened briefly at 189, from which it was bet down quickly and steadily). So the question for this game is whether the betting public, the line makers and the law of averages have not only taken all of the line value out of the under at 187, but have also given the OVER some line value of its own, which we believe could very well be the case. And despite us having won with the full game under in both games 3 and 4 in Boston, we believe the totals line for this game 5 is just too low at 187 or 187.5, given the risk of both OT and late game fouling (either of which can quickly turn an apparent under into an Over late in a close game), with a very close game expected here.
And while we acknowledge that both defenses have played well for the most part, and both teams have had some prolonged dry spells during games 1-4, both offenses are also very capable, as we saw with the record-breaking performance by Celtics’ “assassin” Ray Allen in game 2 (32 points on 11-20 shooting with a record-breaking 8 treys), as well as Kobe’s 33 points last game on 10-22 shooting, including 6-11 treys. And despite that, Kobe still has yet to have one of his classic “break-out” games, with no game altering 4Q performances or buzzer beaters, having more or less “disappeared” in the 4Q of games 2-4, and Lakers not in need of any Kobe late game heroics in their lop-sided game one win. Moreover, after a horrible shooting night in game 3 (just two points on 0-13) and a sub par game last game (12 points on 4-11, including 0-4 on treys), we believe Celtics’ Ray Allen could be due for another big game. And note that Celtics have had a few barnburners at home vs A teams like Lakers TY in playoffs and the late regular season, such as their 230 point home game vs Cavs in April and 219 point home game 3 vs Cavs.
So based on the above support, we’ll not only (officially) go with the Over 187 here for two units, but also suggest teasing the Over down even lower (to 182<) with both sides, in a 3 teamer with both sides teased (LA up to +8> and Boston to +2>) if your book will let you tease opposite sides in the same teaser, which should pay out at least +150 odds (or if that triple option is not available to you, then do two separate two team side/total teasers, one of Boston to the Over and the other of Lakers to the Over).
Los Angeles Lakers @ Boston Celtics - Sunday June 13, 2010 8:05 pm
2 units TOTAL: Over 187 (-110)
We like the OVER here as a line value play. And for that good line value we thank the so-called “betting public” which comes “out of the wood work” in the late NBA playoff rounds every year and collectively bets/loses millions of dollars on the NBA finals and is both fickle and impressionable, as are most of the “talking heads” on ESPN and other sports networks who they often rely on. As a result, the betting public (or the “masses of asses,” as we prefer to call them) were all over the Lakers in game two, with many predicting a four game sweep. But after Boston’s strong performance in game two in LA, the pendulum swung the other way, with most of that same betting public liking Boston at home in game 3, with game two freshest in their minds, and having been reminded by those “talking heads” that in beating the Lakers 4-2 in the June 2008 finals, the Celtics were 3-0 both SU and ATS in the 3 games at home, including a blowout in the game 6 finale. Then Boston not only gave back their home court advantage in losing game 3 but also looked bad in doing it, particularly Ray Allen, who went from the penthouse in game 2 in LA (with 32 points and a record-setting 8 treys) to the outhouse in game 3 at home, with just 2 points on an ugly 0-13 shooting night that included 0-8 on trey attempts. So after the first 3 games, the “popular team” was 0-2 SU and ATS (in games 2 and 3), followed by the support being pretty evenly divided for game 4, as it is for this game 5 (which it should be, with this being an absolutely must win game for Boston but also a very important game for Lakers, as they don’t want to be headed home trailing 3-2 and one “off game” away from elimination).
Similarly, with the under cashing in 3 of the 4 games so far, and in both games 3 and 4 in Boston, also the site for game 5, the generally “over-oriented” betting public has jumped on the under “band wagon” and has driven the totals line down from 190 in game 4 to 187 for game 5 after two days of lines having been posted for this game (the game 5 total opened briefly at 189, from which it was bet down quickly and steadily). So the question for this game is whether the betting public, the line makers and the law of averages have not only taken all of the line value out of the under at 187, but have also given the OVER some line value of its own, which we believe could very well be the case. And despite us having won with the full game under in both games 3 and 4 in Boston, we believe the totals line for this game 5 is just too low at 187 or 187.5, given the risk of both OT and late game fouling (either of which can quickly turn an apparent under into an Over late in a close game), with a very close game expected here.
And while we acknowledge that both defenses have played well for the most part, and both teams have had some prolonged dry spells during games 1-4, both offenses are also very capable, as we saw with the record-breaking performance by Celtics’ “assassin” Ray Allen in game 2 (32 points on 11-20 shooting with a record-breaking 8 treys), as well as Kobe’s 33 points last game on 10-22 shooting, including 6-11 treys. And despite that, Kobe still has yet to have one of his classic “break-out” games, with no game altering 4Q performances or buzzer beaters, having more or less “disappeared” in the 4Q of games 2-4, and Lakers not in need of any Kobe late game heroics in their lop-sided game one win. Moreover, after a horrible shooting night in game 3 (just two points on 0-13) and a sub par game last game (12 points on 4-11, including 0-4 on treys), we believe Celtics’ Ray Allen could be due for another big game. And note that Celtics have had a few barnburners at home vs A teams like Lakers TY in playoffs and the late regular season, such as their 230 point home game vs Cavs in April and 219 point home game 3 vs Cavs.
So based on the above support, we’ll not only (officially) go with the Over 187 here for two units, but also suggest teasing the Over down even lower (to 182<) with both sides, in a 3 teamer with both sides teased (LA up to +8> and Boston to +2>) if your book will let you tease opposite sides in the same teaser, which should pay out at least +150 odds (or if that triple option is not available to you, then do two separate two team side/total teasers, one of Boston to the Over and the other of Lakers to the Over).
** SuperSportsGroup MLB 6/13
Houston v. NY 1:05pm
PICK: Stros RL (+1.5) +145 Game
KC v. Cincinnati 1:10pm
PICK: Reds ML ev Game
NY v. Baltimore 1:35pm
PICK: Orioles ML +126 Game best bet of the day #2
Atlanta v. Minnesota 2:10pm
PICK: Braves ML +135 Game
Seattle v. San Diego 4:05pm
PICK: Mariners ML ev Game
PICK: OVER 6.5 Game +105 Best bet of the day #2
3 team parlay for
Nats RL (-1.5) -125
Pirates ML +185
Marlins ML +185
Houston v. NY 1:05pm
PICK: Stros RL (+1.5) +145 Game
KC v. Cincinnati 1:10pm
PICK: Reds ML ev Game
NY v. Baltimore 1:35pm
PICK: Orioles ML +126 Game best bet of the day #2
Atlanta v. Minnesota 2:10pm
PICK: Braves ML +135 Game
Seattle v. San Diego 4:05pm
PICK: Mariners ML ev Game
PICK: OVER 6.5 Game +105 Best bet of the day #2
3 team parlay for
Nats RL (-1.5) -125
Pirates ML +185
Marlins ML +185
HRC PREMIUM MLB ACTION-June 13th
Capper: JSM Sports (Handicappers Paradise)
Play Strengths
*****************
2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Diamond (Rated)
*****************
[956] New York |5*|-160|-1.5 RL|Network N/A|1:05 pm EST
[953] Washington |5*|-180|B+0|TBS|1:05 pm EST
[951] St Louis |5*|-130|B+0|Network N/A|4:10 pm EST
[972] Chicago |5*|-145|B+0|ESPN|8:05 pm EST
HRC PREMIUM NBA ACTION-June 13th
Capper: JSM Sports (Handicappers Paradise)
Play Strengths
*****************
2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Diamond (Rated)
*****************
[709] LA Lakers |5*|+3|B+0|ABC|8:00 pm EST
Capper: JSM Sports (Handicappers Paradise)
Play Strengths
*****************
2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Diamond (Rated)
*****************
[956] New York |5*|-160|-1.5 RL|Network N/A|1:05 pm EST
[953] Washington |5*|-180|B+0|TBS|1:05 pm EST
[951] St Louis |5*|-130|B+0|Network N/A|4:10 pm EST
[972] Chicago |5*|-145|B+0|ESPN|8:05 pm EST
HRC PREMIUM NBA ACTION-June 13th
Capper: JSM Sports (Handicappers Paradise)
Play Strengths
*****************
2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Diamond (Rated)
*****************
[709] LA Lakers |5*|+3|B+0|ABC|8:00 pm EST
