COMPS !!!
1. NSA(The Legend) MLB - Angels +110
2. Ray "The Playmaker" Bowden MLB - Twins -144
3. VegasSI.com MLB - Padres -115
4. SportsAction365.com MLB - Diamondbacks +130
5. Gameday Network MLB - Orioles over 8
6. William E. Stockton MLB - Angels under 8
7. Gerry "Big Cat" Andino MLB - Nationals -200
8. Lou Panelli MLB - White Sox +130
9. Steve "Scoop" Kendall MLB - Tigers under 9
10. Vincent Pioli MLB - Rangers +115
11. John Morrison MLB - Twins -144
12. Tony Campone MLB - Yankees under 9
13. Chicago Sports Group MLB - Rangers +115
14. Hollywood Sportsline MLB - Rays under 9
15. VIP Action MLB - Nationals -200
16. South Beach Sports MLB - Reds -110
17. Michigan Sports MLB - Mariners over 6.5
18. NY Players Club MLB - Blue Jays over 9.5
19. Charlies Sports MLB - Tigers -200
20. Fred Callahan MLB - Red Sox -120
1. NSA(The Legend) MLB - Angels +110
2. Ray "The Playmaker" Bowden MLB - Twins -144
3. VegasSI.com MLB - Padres -115
4. SportsAction365.com MLB - Diamondbacks +130
5. Gameday Network MLB - Orioles over 8
6. William E. Stockton MLB - Angels under 8
7. Gerry "Big Cat" Andino MLB - Nationals -200
8. Lou Panelli MLB - White Sox +130
9. Steve "Scoop" Kendall MLB - Tigers under 9
10. Vincent Pioli MLB - Rangers +115
11. John Morrison MLB - Twins -144
12. Tony Campone MLB - Yankees under 9
13. Chicago Sports Group MLB - Rangers +115
14. Hollywood Sportsline MLB - Rays under 9
15. VIP Action MLB - Nationals -200
16. South Beach Sports MLB - Reds -110
17. Michigan Sports MLB - Mariners over 6.5
18. NY Players Club MLB - Blue Jays over 9.5
19. Charlies Sports MLB - Tigers -200
20. Fred Callahan MLB - Red Sox -120
AAA Sports
LA Lakers/Boston Celtics Over 187: I have not made too many plays in these NBA Playoff games but I am 6-1 when doing so and all of those plays have been Totals. I am going to go that route again and I am going to be brief with my thoughts. Three out of four of these Final Series Games have not topped the total but game 3 was much like game 2 in that we had a quicker pace of action, more shots, and poor Laker Shooting. That all added up to what was a Squeeker Under had that game been set at what it is for this one. Kobe was not on his game at all and the primary reason why LA Managed just 32 of 71 from the court. That shooting disparity was not as bad as game 2 with just 29 of 71 shots made. This is likely to change as Bryant is a strong competitor and most always follows a poor performance with a good one. I do know that his banged up a bit but these are the finals and he will be ready to go tonight. We have a strong adjustment by Oddsmakers for this contest and that alone gives us what I consider a value number. Lest we forget that while Under is 3-1 for this series, this number has been obtained twice and close to 3 times. LA cannot let the Celtics play their game tonight, that would be strong halfcourt action. They have to pick their fast break opps more often and we can expect Fisher to help that cause with Kobe likely to be in and out of this contest. I have checked the last 10 Posted Totals for these two when they play and this line is lower than all of them. I am not in love with this Total, but I can’t pass the value oddsmakers have given us here.
LA Lakers/Boston Celtics Over 187: I have not made too many plays in these NBA Playoff games but I am 6-1 when doing so and all of those plays have been Totals. I am going to go that route again and I am going to be brief with my thoughts. Three out of four of these Final Series Games have not topped the total but game 3 was much like game 2 in that we had a quicker pace of action, more shots, and poor Laker Shooting. That all added up to what was a Squeeker Under had that game been set at what it is for this one. Kobe was not on his game at all and the primary reason why LA Managed just 32 of 71 from the court. That shooting disparity was not as bad as game 2 with just 29 of 71 shots made. This is likely to change as Bryant is a strong competitor and most always follows a poor performance with a good one. I do know that his banged up a bit but these are the finals and he will be ready to go tonight. We have a strong adjustment by Oddsmakers for this contest and that alone gives us what I consider a value number. Lest we forget that while Under is 3-1 for this series, this number has been obtained twice and close to 3 times. LA cannot let the Celtics play their game tonight, that would be strong halfcourt action. They have to pick their fast break opps more often and we can expect Fisher to help that cause with Kobe likely to be in and out of this contest. I have checked the last 10 Posted Totals for these two when they play and this line is lower than all of them. I am not in love with this Total, but I can’t pass the value oddsmakers have given us here.
Matt Rivers of OffshoreInsiders.com is ready to build the Lakers-Celtics bankroll Sunday with a winner on the Oakland A's.
Certain times teams can have a huge advantage in a game but are still just laying too much and that is the deal here.
Of course Matt Cain is much better than Vin Mazzaro but neither team really hits and this game probably has 4-2 either way written all over it. Don't get me wrong, Cain is a stud a lot of the time and Mazzaro is not close to that but when up against the weak hitting Giants I think that Mazzaro will have a second straight quality outing. He was very good last time out in upsetting the big chalk Angels and I would not be all that shocked to see history repeat itself here.
The Giants are just not a hard hitting team and are laying too much here. The A's are not good either but they are not the team that is laying this hefty price.
It's not rocket science, they have the superior hurler and definitely should win this game but the number is just too much and I will take my chances with this takeback.
The pick: Oakland
Certain times teams can have a huge advantage in a game but are still just laying too much and that is the deal here.
Of course Matt Cain is much better than Vin Mazzaro but neither team really hits and this game probably has 4-2 either way written all over it. Don't get me wrong, Cain is a stud a lot of the time and Mazzaro is not close to that but when up against the weak hitting Giants I think that Mazzaro will have a second straight quality outing. He was very good last time out in upsetting the big chalk Angels and I would not be all that shocked to see history repeat itself here.
The Giants are just not a hard hitting team and are laying too much here. The A's are not good either but they are not the team that is laying this hefty price.
It's not rocket science, they have the superior hurler and definitely should win this game but the number is just too much and I will take my chances with this takeback.
The pick: Oakland
jeff benton sunday
0-2 yesterday for a awful day of MINUS 50 dimes or $580 if you play a dollar a unit...overall, 56-65-3 MINUS 150 dimes.
Sunday's Winners ... 15 DIME release on the Boston Celtics over the L.A. Lakers in Game 5 of the NBA Finals. As I release this play at about 1 a.m. Eastern time, the Celtics are laying between 2 ½ and 3 points both here in Las Vegas and offshore. Obviously, I recommend getting that 2½ if at all poessible, and if you do, I advise that you protect yourself and by the half-point, taking the number down to -2.
10 DIME release on the Padres over the Mariners in interleague action. As I release this selection, San Diego is a modorate favorite of -120 to -130 both here in Vegas and offshore. Be sure to specify ONLY Clayton Richard as San Diego’s starting pitcher. If Richard does not start, this play is VOID!
Celtics
Two ways to look at this game: Either you play the Lakers because of the zigzag theory – these teams have alternated wins and losses in the first four games of this series and all six meetings this season – or you side with Boston because this game is immansely more important to the Celtics than it is to L.A.
Obviously, I’m going with the latter. And the reason can be summed up in two words: Andrew Bynum. The Lakers big man – who is playing on a bum knee – was a force in the first three games of this series (combined 40 points, 22 rebounds and eight blocked shots while playing 28, 39 and 29 minutes). However, Bynum reinjured his knee toward the tail end of Game 3 and was a total non-factor in L.A.’s 96-89 loss, producing just two points and three rebounds in 12 minutes.
Without Bynum on the floor, the Celtics had their way with the Lakers down low (Boston had a 54-34 advantage in points in the paint, plus a 41-34 rebounding edge). Without Bynum on the floor, Glen “Big Baby Davis” did his best Wes Unseld imperesonation with a 18 points and five rebounds, the majority of which came in the fourth quarter when the Celtics bench dominated the Lakers’ starters and outscored Los Angeles 36-27.
And that brings me to another point: Because guys like Big Baby, Rasheed Wallace, Tony Allen and Nate Robinson brought their collective “A” game in the fourth quarter on Thursday, the Celts were able to rest their core four (Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and Rajon Rondo). In the case of aging vets like Garnett, Allen and Pierce, the benefit of the extra minutes on the bench is obvious. But Rondo also is helped by the rest as he’s carried the load for Boston all spring long. That means all four guys should be extremely fresh and energized, especially after two full days off.
On the flip side, L.A.’s big guns – Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Ron Artest and Lamar Odom – all played at least 39 minutes.
Add it all up, and you’ve got a fully rested Celtics team at home in what amounts to a must-win game against a Lakers squad that’s reeling after blowing Game 4. And even though Bynum says he’s going to play tonight, no way in hell will he be as effective as he was in Games 1 and 2 – and because of the way Bynum clogs up the lane, you could easily argue he’s THE most imporoant Lakers player in this series. Throw in the fact that the Celtics cannot lose this game – they’re NOT winning two in a row in L.A. – and Boston is the smart play here, especially in this reasonable spread range (the first four games have been decided by 13, 9, 7 and 7 points).
Padres
It’s time. It’s time to take the San Diego Padres seriously. At 37-25, they not only have the best record in the National League, they’ve got the third best record in all of baseball – only the Rays (40-22) and Yankees (39-23) are better.
Most importantly, when you look at the money standings, no team in baseball has been more profitable than the Friars, and it really isn’t even close. In fact, San Diego has generated 1,597 “units” of profit this season. The next best team (Toronto) is at 953 “units,” while the Nationals (787 “units”) are third on the list. Digest that for a second: San Diego has essentially brought home twice as much money as all but one team in baseball!
As for this matchup, well, where do I start? For San Diego to be a moderate favorite against the Mariners is a joke. Seattle is 23-39 on the season (8-22 on the road). The Padres are 37-25 overall (20-12 at home). And since losing the first game to Seattle this season, San Diego has won four in a row over the Mariners.
Sure, the Mariners are sending Felix Hernandez to the mound today, but so what? The Padres still have the superior starting pitcher in Clayton Richard.
Yes, you read that last sentence right. Clayton Richard (4-23, 2.72 ERA) has been better – MUCH better – than Felix Hernandez (3-5, 3.77 ERA). Proving that point, Richard has held 11 of 12 opponents to three earned runs or fewer; he’s given up exactly one run in four of his last five starts; and the only time this season he allowed more than three runs he gave up a whopping four spot.
Compare that to King Felix, who’s coming off an ugly start in Texas (seven runs allowed in six innings), and Seattle lost that contest 7-1. Hardly surprising, considering the Mariners are 1-8 in Hernandez’s last nine starts overall, including 0-5 on the road! The cumulative score in those eight losses with Hernandez on the bump: Opponents 49, Seattle 17. Included there is an 8-1 home loss to San Diego back on May 23!
Bottom line, guys: Whether or not the general public chooses to believe it, the Padres are for real – and without question they’re infinitely better than the Mariners. And to get San Diego on its home field with a hotter pitcher against a piss-poor road team like the Mariners at such a dirt cheap price is just too good to pass up.
Oh, one more thing: The Mariners have lost 50 of their last 67 games – yep, that’s 17-50 – as a road underdog.
0-2 yesterday for a awful day of MINUS 50 dimes or $580 if you play a dollar a unit...overall, 56-65-3 MINUS 150 dimes.
Sunday's Winners ... 15 DIME release on the Boston Celtics over the L.A. Lakers in Game 5 of the NBA Finals. As I release this play at about 1 a.m. Eastern time, the Celtics are laying between 2 ½ and 3 points both here in Las Vegas and offshore. Obviously, I recommend getting that 2½ if at all poessible, and if you do, I advise that you protect yourself and by the half-point, taking the number down to -2.
10 DIME release on the Padres over the Mariners in interleague action. As I release this selection, San Diego is a modorate favorite of -120 to -130 both here in Vegas and offshore. Be sure to specify ONLY Clayton Richard as San Diego’s starting pitcher. If Richard does not start, this play is VOID!
Celtics
Two ways to look at this game: Either you play the Lakers because of the zigzag theory – these teams have alternated wins and losses in the first four games of this series and all six meetings this season – or you side with Boston because this game is immansely more important to the Celtics than it is to L.A.
Obviously, I’m going with the latter. And the reason can be summed up in two words: Andrew Bynum. The Lakers big man – who is playing on a bum knee – was a force in the first three games of this series (combined 40 points, 22 rebounds and eight blocked shots while playing 28, 39 and 29 minutes). However, Bynum reinjured his knee toward the tail end of Game 3 and was a total non-factor in L.A.’s 96-89 loss, producing just two points and three rebounds in 12 minutes.
Without Bynum on the floor, the Celtics had their way with the Lakers down low (Boston had a 54-34 advantage in points in the paint, plus a 41-34 rebounding edge). Without Bynum on the floor, Glen “Big Baby Davis” did his best Wes Unseld imperesonation with a 18 points and five rebounds, the majority of which came in the fourth quarter when the Celtics bench dominated the Lakers’ starters and outscored Los Angeles 36-27.
And that brings me to another point: Because guys like Big Baby, Rasheed Wallace, Tony Allen and Nate Robinson brought their collective “A” game in the fourth quarter on Thursday, the Celts were able to rest their core four (Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and Rajon Rondo). In the case of aging vets like Garnett, Allen and Pierce, the benefit of the extra minutes on the bench is obvious. But Rondo also is helped by the rest as he’s carried the load for Boston all spring long. That means all four guys should be extremely fresh and energized, especially after two full days off.
On the flip side, L.A.’s big guns – Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Ron Artest and Lamar Odom – all played at least 39 minutes.
Add it all up, and you’ve got a fully rested Celtics team at home in what amounts to a must-win game against a Lakers squad that’s reeling after blowing Game 4. And even though Bynum says he’s going to play tonight, no way in hell will he be as effective as he was in Games 1 and 2 – and because of the way Bynum clogs up the lane, you could easily argue he’s THE most imporoant Lakers player in this series. Throw in the fact that the Celtics cannot lose this game – they’re NOT winning two in a row in L.A. – and Boston is the smart play here, especially in this reasonable spread range (the first four games have been decided by 13, 9, 7 and 7 points).
Padres
It’s time. It’s time to take the San Diego Padres seriously. At 37-25, they not only have the best record in the National League, they’ve got the third best record in all of baseball – only the Rays (40-22) and Yankees (39-23) are better.
Most importantly, when you look at the money standings, no team in baseball has been more profitable than the Friars, and it really isn’t even close. In fact, San Diego has generated 1,597 “units” of profit this season. The next best team (Toronto) is at 953 “units,” while the Nationals (787 “units”) are third on the list. Digest that for a second: San Diego has essentially brought home twice as much money as all but one team in baseball!
As for this matchup, well, where do I start? For San Diego to be a moderate favorite against the Mariners is a joke. Seattle is 23-39 on the season (8-22 on the road). The Padres are 37-25 overall (20-12 at home). And since losing the first game to Seattle this season, San Diego has won four in a row over the Mariners.
Sure, the Mariners are sending Felix Hernandez to the mound today, but so what? The Padres still have the superior starting pitcher in Clayton Richard.
Yes, you read that last sentence right. Clayton Richard (4-23, 2.72 ERA) has been better – MUCH better – than Felix Hernandez (3-5, 3.77 ERA). Proving that point, Richard has held 11 of 12 opponents to three earned runs or fewer; he’s given up exactly one run in four of his last five starts; and the only time this season he allowed more than three runs he gave up a whopping four spot.
Compare that to King Felix, who’s coming off an ugly start in Texas (seven runs allowed in six innings), and Seattle lost that contest 7-1. Hardly surprising, considering the Mariners are 1-8 in Hernandez’s last nine starts overall, including 0-5 on the road! The cumulative score in those eight losses with Hernandez on the bump: Opponents 49, Seattle 17. Included there is an 8-1 home loss to San Diego back on May 23!
Bottom line, guys: Whether or not the general public chooses to believe it, the Padres are for real – and without question they’re infinitely better than the Mariners. And to get San Diego on its home field with a hotter pitcher against a piss-poor road team like the Mariners at such a dirt cheap price is just too good to pass up.
Oh, one more thing: The Mariners have lost 50 of their last 67 games – yep, that’s 17-50 – as a road underdog.
SPORTS WAGERS
Los Angeles +1.25 over BOSTON
No team has won two in a row in this series so there’s no reason to believe that will change now. More significant however, is the oddsmakers throwing out a line of Boston –2½, the same line they threw up for game 3. After losing game three the oddsmakers put up a –3½ for game 4 and the C’s covered with a big fourth quarter. Now the line comes down a point and that is highly curious. A look at the updated series price sees the Lakers as a –2.03 favorite with today’s game being in Boston and the Lakers potentially being down 3-2. So, you can analyze this game till your blue in the face. By reading “between the lines” one can only conclude the oddsmakers strongly believe in the Lakers today and that is all you need to know. Play: Los Angeles +1.25 (Risking 2 units).
Kansas City –1.05 over CINCINNATI
Zach Greinke has not been nearly as good as last season but he still doesn’t deserve a 1-8 record. He’s gotten very little run support but figures to get a bunch here. Greinke still has a bunch of gems to his credit this season that include a four-hitter against the Rays in 8 IP and a six-inning, five hit, one run performance against the Red Sox. The best news is that the Reds have never seen Greinke and that has to work to his advantage. Sam LeCure is pitching only because Homer Bailey is injured and as soon as Bailey comes back LeCure will be relegated to pen duty or more likely be sent back to the minors. LeCure is 1-2 with a very respectable 3.12 ERA but don’t be fooled by that. His three starts came against the Astros, Cards and Giants and that trifecta could make anyone look good. Fact is, LeCure (-24 BPV, 4-2-3 PQS) has avoided disaster due to an inflated 85% strand rate. The lack of control spell potential trouble, as LeCure has walked 12 batters in 12 innings and has a 1.67 WHIP. LeCure takes a huge step up in class when facing this very dangerous offense and while the Reds offense is also dangerous, Greinke’s chances of success here is so much better than LeCure’s. Play: Kansas City –1.05 (Risking 2 units).
L.A. Angels +1.19 over LOS ANGELES
The Angels are on fire with 14 wins over its last 18 games and after winning the first two games of this series they have its ace going today, Jered Weaver. Weaver has 89 K’s in 81 IP and has walked just 22 batters all year. He allowed four jacks in his first five starts but did not allow a single jack in seven of his next nine starts leading up to this game. Weaver has a BAA of .239, an ERA of 3.20 and his 127 BPV is one of the best in the game. Carlos Monasterios (22 BPV) has worked five innings or more in each of his three most recent starts. The rookie's skills to-date are underwhelming, as he has been aided by a 22% hit rate and 86% strand rate. The 4.78 xERA here suggests the 2.27 ERA is unlikely to be sustained. Monasterios has benefitted from facing the D-Backs and Cards both at Dodger Stadium and when he faced the Rocks in Colorado he gave up four runs in five innings before being yanked. The guy is a reliever that is filling in for Vincente Padilla and in no way does he have an edge over Weaver. There is some true value here on the pooch, as Monasterios is average at best and again, the Angels are the hottest team in the league. Play: L.A. Angels +1.19 (Risking 2 units).
Los Angeles +1.25 over BOSTON
No team has won two in a row in this series so there’s no reason to believe that will change now. More significant however, is the oddsmakers throwing out a line of Boston –2½, the same line they threw up for game 3. After losing game three the oddsmakers put up a –3½ for game 4 and the C’s covered with a big fourth quarter. Now the line comes down a point and that is highly curious. A look at the updated series price sees the Lakers as a –2.03 favorite with today’s game being in Boston and the Lakers potentially being down 3-2. So, you can analyze this game till your blue in the face. By reading “between the lines” one can only conclude the oddsmakers strongly believe in the Lakers today and that is all you need to know. Play: Los Angeles +1.25 (Risking 2 units).
Kansas City –1.05 over CINCINNATI
Zach Greinke has not been nearly as good as last season but he still doesn’t deserve a 1-8 record. He’s gotten very little run support but figures to get a bunch here. Greinke still has a bunch of gems to his credit this season that include a four-hitter against the Rays in 8 IP and a six-inning, five hit, one run performance against the Red Sox. The best news is that the Reds have never seen Greinke and that has to work to his advantage. Sam LeCure is pitching only because Homer Bailey is injured and as soon as Bailey comes back LeCure will be relegated to pen duty or more likely be sent back to the minors. LeCure is 1-2 with a very respectable 3.12 ERA but don’t be fooled by that. His three starts came against the Astros, Cards and Giants and that trifecta could make anyone look good. Fact is, LeCure (-24 BPV, 4-2-3 PQS) has avoided disaster due to an inflated 85% strand rate. The lack of control spell potential trouble, as LeCure has walked 12 batters in 12 innings and has a 1.67 WHIP. LeCure takes a huge step up in class when facing this very dangerous offense and while the Reds offense is also dangerous, Greinke’s chances of success here is so much better than LeCure’s. Play: Kansas City –1.05 (Risking 2 units).
L.A. Angels +1.19 over LOS ANGELES
The Angels are on fire with 14 wins over its last 18 games and after winning the first two games of this series they have its ace going today, Jered Weaver. Weaver has 89 K’s in 81 IP and has walked just 22 batters all year. He allowed four jacks in his first five starts but did not allow a single jack in seven of his next nine starts leading up to this game. Weaver has a BAA of .239, an ERA of 3.20 and his 127 BPV is one of the best in the game. Carlos Monasterios (22 BPV) has worked five innings or more in each of his three most recent starts. The rookie's skills to-date are underwhelming, as he has been aided by a 22% hit rate and 86% strand rate. The 4.78 xERA here suggests the 2.27 ERA is unlikely to be sustained. Monasterios has benefitted from facing the D-Backs and Cards both at Dodger Stadium and when he faced the Rocks in Colorado he gave up four runs in five innings before being yanked. The guy is a reliever that is filling in for Vincente Padilla and in no way does he have an edge over Weaver. There is some true value here on the pooch, as Monasterios is average at best and again, the Angels are the hottest team in the league. Play: L.A. Angels +1.19 (Risking 2 units).
Bob Balfe
Boston Red Sox -125
Until Philly can score runs in bunches, its a no-brainier to go against them behind a hot-hitting Red Sox team that has just crushed them in the past two nights. Cole Hamels should pitch decent but, if the Philles are unable to score, then there is no way they can manage to stay in this game on the road. Take the Red Sox.
Australia +650
There is a lot of talk of this being a weaker German team than in past years but I am not really buying that. They have a new goaltender going against a veteran in net for Australia. This line holds tremendous value if Australia can get a good aerial attack going. They have a very credible shot at winning this game. Lets take our chances here with a big money line win. Take Australia.
Boston Red Sox -125
Until Philly can score runs in bunches, its a no-brainier to go against them behind a hot-hitting Red Sox team that has just crushed them in the past two nights. Cole Hamels should pitch decent but, if the Philles are unable to score, then there is no way they can manage to stay in this game on the road. Take the Red Sox.
Australia +650
There is a lot of talk of this being a weaker German team than in past years but I am not really buying that. They have a new goaltender going against a veteran in net for Australia. This line holds tremendous value if Australia can get a good aerial attack going. They have a very credible shot at winning this game. Lets take our chances here with a big money line win. Take Australia.
Wunderdog
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Cleveland Indians
Don't look now but the Indians have won four straight including wins at +160 and +185. We were on them at +185 a few days ago and will back them again as a big dog here. It's not often we can say this, but we get extra value here by fading a rookie pitcher. This line is jacked due to the phenom Strasburg. Everyone wants a piece of him, so we get extra line value by going the other way. Strasburg's team is just 12-21 on the road this season, but they are a prohibitive favorite against a hot team here? Overall the Nats are 18-29 the past three seasons as a favorite and 7-24 the past two seasons after a game in which they scored under 2 runs. I like Cleveland at this line here.
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Cleveland Indians
Don't look now but the Indians have won four straight including wins at +160 and +185. We were on them at +185 a few days ago and will back them again as a big dog here. It's not often we can say this, but we get extra value here by fading a rookie pitcher. This line is jacked due to the phenom Strasburg. Everyone wants a piece of him, so we get extra line value by going the other way. Strasburg's team is just 12-21 on the road this season, but they are a prohibitive favorite against a hot team here? Overall the Nats are 18-29 the past three seasons as a favorite and 7-24 the past two seasons after a game in which they scored under 2 runs. I like Cleveland at this line here.
