Andre Gomes | NBA Total Sun, 06/13/10 - 8:05 PM
dime bet 709 LAL / 710 BOS Over 187.0
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Analysis:
NBA - 709 LA Lakers @ 710 Boston Celtics
*DOUBLE DIME PLAY*
The Lakers are my biggest play in this contest and I’m taking the Over as well as both plays are correlated and I’ll explain why.
The last two games of this series have been low scoring games with 175 and 185 points while the first two games played in LA had 197 and 191 points. Why? Both defenses played better as of late? The answer is NO! Since game 1 both offenses have been showing a similar offensive efficiency, here’s my (combined) offensive efficiency numbers for each game:
GAME 1 – 219.05
GAME 2 – 215.37
GAME 3 – 214.37
GAME 4 – 216.75
As you can see the numbers are quite similar in all the 4 contests. In fact in the last game both teams were more effective on the offensive end than in game 2 in which the game ended with 197 points!
The BIGGEST REASON for such weird correlation is the PACE that each game was played:
GAME 1 – 87.11
GAME 2 – 91.43
GAME 3 – 81.66
GAME 4 – 85.34
As you can see the last two games were played in a slow pace and in my opinion it was because both teams were completely tired! I’ve already explained before (I remember that I had the Under in both games).
For game 3: “The Finals schedule. Ok, both teams had 4/5 days to prepare for game 1 and then 2 days to prepare game 2. Now that they have to travel from LA to Boston in a huge trip they have only 1 day to rest!”
For game 4 the thought was the same because both teams had only one day to rest between game 3 and 4.
However for tonight the situation is way different because both teams had one extra day to rest and for players that are logging heavy minutes (like Kobe Bryant or Pau Gasol this is a huge factor) it helps a lot and so I expect this contest to be played in a slightly fast pace than the previous 2 contests.
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 709 LA Lakers (+3) @ -115 on
the greek
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 187 @ -110 on
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