GC: NHL Play
On Sunday the NHL power Play is on the Chicago Black Hawks. Game 4 at 3:05 eastern. Chicago and all game 1 homers in this round are a 65% proposition historically and as see below. Chicago has an even bigger edge though as the catch the Kings off a game 7 road win off their arch Rival in Anaheim. Unlike the NY. Rangers who also took to the road off a game 7 road win, the Kings will not have the benefit of 3 days rest. They are right back to start this series after a win late Friday night and are back for a day game on Sunday against a Rested Chicago team that is 23-6 and 7-1 this year at home when the total is 5 or less. Chicago has won 4 of their last 5 Semi final games and is 5-0 at home against the Kings outscoring them 14-7 in the process. LA Has lost all 3 meetings this season and will be up against it here today. Take Chicago. End the week big with 3 Powerful plays. In the NBA There are 2 Playoffs Systems Both cashing over 90% long term. In MLB We have the Sunday night ESPN Game of the Month and an Afternoon 5* Blowout system that wins on average by over 3 runs per game. Saturday top side on Phillies wins and We cashed the Preakness stakes Exacta. For the Bonus Play take The Chicago Blackhawks. GC
HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Playing Game 1 @ H:
Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team playing Game 1 @ H (Chicago) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2014 NHL and NBA Quarterfinals rounds:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 834-410 (.670)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 200-114 (.637)
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 398-220 (.644)
series record, NHL only, Semifinals round: 94-50 (.653)
Game 1 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 833-411 (.670)
Game 1 record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 203-111 (.646)
Game 1 record, NHL only, all rounds: 400-218 (.647)
Game 1 record, NHL only, Semifinals round: 94-50 (.653)
Sunday Triple Play. In the NBA The Double 90% system side. In MLB The ESPN Sunday night Game of the Month and an Afternoon 5* 100% Blowout system that's Winning by over 3 runs per game. Saturday card nailed the Preakness Stakes Exacta and our Top Side play on the Phillies. NHL Play below
On Sunday the NHL power Play is on the Chicago Black Hawks. Game 4 at 3:05 eastern. Chicago and all game 1 homers in this round are a 65% proposition historically and as see below. Chicago has an even bigger edge though as the catch the Kings off a game 7 road win off their arch Rival in Anaheim. Unlike the NY. Rangers who also took to the road off a game 7 road win, the Kings will not have the benefit of 3 days rest. They are right back to start this series after a win late Friday night and are back for a day game on Sunday against a Rested Chicago team that is 23-6 and 7-1 this year at home when the total is 5 or less. Chicago has won 4 of their last 5 Semi final games and is 5-0 at home against the Kings outscoring them 14-7 in the process. LA Has lost all 3 meetings this season and will be up against it here today. Take Chicago. End the week big with 3 Powerful plays. In the NBA There are 2 Playoffs Systems Both cashing over 90% long term. In MLB We have the Sunday night ESPN Game of the Month and an Afternoon 5* Blowout system that wins on average by over 3 runs per game. Saturday top side on Phillies wins and We cashed the Preakness stakes Exacta. For the Bonus Play take The Chicago Blackhawks. GC
HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Playing Game 1 @ H:
Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team playing Game 1 @ H (Chicago) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2014 NHL and NBA Quarterfinals rounds:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 834-410 (.670)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 200-114 (.637)
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 398-220 (.644)
series record, NHL only, Semifinals round: 94-50 (.653)
Game 1 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 833-411 (.670)
Game 1 record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 203-111 (.646)
Game 1 record, NHL only, all rounds: 400-218 (.647)
Game 1 record, NHL only, Semifinals round: 94-50 (.653)
Wunderdog Sports Free Pick
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels
Time: Sunday 05/18 3:35 PM Eastern
Pick: Tampa Bay -122 (moneyline) at Bookmaker
The Angels may be home, but they are 6-13 in their last 19 games as an underdog and face ace lefty David Price. He is 4-3 and having a great season with 70 strikeouts and only six walks in 62+ innings! Tampa Bay has great defense in the field, and despite losing yesterday have owned the Angels, 16-7 in the last 23 meetings. The Rays are 37-15 in Price's last 52 starts as a road favorite, plus 24-6 in Price's last 30 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Price put together a brilliant complete-game performance Tuesday night versus the Mariners allowing just one run on six hits while recording 12 strikeouts. The Angels are 1-3 in the four appearances by starter Matt Shoemaker. Grab the visitors here. Play the Rays.
Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels
Time: Sunday 05/18 3:35 PM Eastern
Pick: Tampa Bay -122 (moneyline) at Bookmaker
The Angels may be home, but they are 6-13 in their last 19 games as an underdog and face ace lefty David Price. He is 4-3 and having a great season with 70 strikeouts and only six walks in 62+ innings! Tampa Bay has great defense in the field, and despite losing yesterday have owned the Angels, 16-7 in the last 23 meetings. The Rays are 37-15 in Price's last 52 starts as a road favorite, plus 24-6 in Price's last 30 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Price put together a brilliant complete-game performance Tuesday night versus the Mariners allowing just one run on six hits while recording 12 strikeouts. The Angels are 1-3 in the four appearances by starter Matt Shoemaker. Grab the visitors here. Play the Rays.
SPORTS WAGERS
NHL Playoffs - Game 1
CHICAGO -½ +109 over Los Angeles
Regulation only. We’re not going to ignore what the Rangers did to Montreal yesterday under similar circumstances. Down 3-2 to the Bruins, Montreal stormed back to win the next two games to advance and the emotional and physical toll it took was very evident in the first game of the East final. Well, the Kings went through the exact same thing against one of their biggest rivals by storming back against the Ducks. For Los Angeles however, it was the second time this playoff series that they were pushed to the brink but overcame big odds to advance. The Kings have won five games this playoff year when facing elimination. They were down 3-0 to the Sharks and 3-2 to the Ducks. They’ve played two, seven game series and there is no way that it hasn’t taken a toll. Just one full day off since defeating the Ducks, the Kings figure to suffer an emotional letdown here. In Game 1 of their series against the Ducks after defeating San Jose, Los Angeles was very flat but somehow managed to steal it. That’s unlikely to happen here.
The Blackhawks knocked off an extremely difficult Wild team in six games. They have defeated the Kings five straight in Chicago and they’ve defeated them in 19 of the past 26 meetings overall. Chicago is also 9-1 in their last 10 Conference Finals games and come into this one much more rested and having plenty of time to digest their last series win and prepare for this one. L.A. hasn’t even had time to exhale. Also note that this game goes off at 3:00 PM EST, which for the Kings, is like a noon start and that, too favors the Blackhawks in a big way.
NHL Playoffs - Game 1
CHICAGO -½ +109 over Los Angeles
Regulation only. We’re not going to ignore what the Rangers did to Montreal yesterday under similar circumstances. Down 3-2 to the Bruins, Montreal stormed back to win the next two games to advance and the emotional and physical toll it took was very evident in the first game of the East final. Well, the Kings went through the exact same thing against one of their biggest rivals by storming back against the Ducks. For Los Angeles however, it was the second time this playoff series that they were pushed to the brink but overcame big odds to advance. The Kings have won five games this playoff year when facing elimination. They were down 3-0 to the Sharks and 3-2 to the Ducks. They’ve played two, seven game series and there is no way that it hasn’t taken a toll. Just one full day off since defeating the Ducks, the Kings figure to suffer an emotional letdown here. In Game 1 of their series against the Ducks after defeating San Jose, Los Angeles was very flat but somehow managed to steal it. That’s unlikely to happen here.
The Blackhawks knocked off an extremely difficult Wild team in six games. They have defeated the Kings five straight in Chicago and they’ve defeated them in 19 of the past 26 meetings overall. Chicago is also 9-1 in their last 10 Conference Finals games and come into this one much more rested and having plenty of time to digest their last series win and prepare for this one. L.A. hasn’t even had time to exhale. Also note that this game goes off at 3:00 PM EST, which for the Kings, is like a noon start and that, too favors the Blackhawks in a big way.
SPORTS WAGERS
Milwaukee @ CHICAGO
CHICAGO +127 over Milwaukee
Marco Estrada is 3-1 with an ERA of 3.28 after eight starts. Estrada also has a nifty WHIP of 1.09 and 46 K’s in 49 innings with just 14 walks issued. However, Estrada also has benefitted from an unsustainable 85% strand rate over his last five starts and his groundball/fly-ball split of 40%/40% suggests that there are some disaster starts forthcoming. With the wind blowing out today and being a fly-ball pitcher, Estrada could be in for a short outing.
By contrast, Travis Wood has a 66% strand rate and that is the main reason for his misleading ERA of 4.91. Fact is, Wood has 44 K’s in 48 innings, he has outstanding control and regression in his ERA is around the corner. Also note that Wood has a 2.39 ERA in 26.1 innings at Wrigley. The opposing Brewers have struggled against LHP and against fly-ballers. With a boatload of strikeouts and a solid history against the Crew, Wood has a great chance to defeat them again.
San Diego @ COLORADO
San Diego +136 over COLORADO
The Rockies bats have cooled off with just 12 runs scored over their last five games and three runs scored or fewer in five of their last eight. Now the Rockies will face a pitcher they’ve never seen in Donn Roach. Roach has worked 21 innings out of the pen this season for the Padres but is more comfortable as a starter, as his 44 games started in the minors over the past two years will attest to. The Angels traded Roach to the Padres in the deal that sent Ernesto Frieri to Los Angeles. While Frieri became a mainstay of the Angels’ bullpen, Roach dominated the minors’ most challenging circuit for pitchers. He was a prolific ground-ball artist in the Cal League, racking up a 3.8 groundout/flyout ratio. Roach lives off his devastating sinker, which sits in the low 90s and tops out at 94. He routinely pitches deep into games getting quick outs with his sinker. When he does go deeper in counts, he turns to his tumbling splitter to get swings and misses. Roach does have a third pitch, a downer curveball in the mid-70s. He doesn’t go to the curve much, usually employing it early in counts on his second or third trip through the order. He's a good athlete with a clean delivery and a feel for moving the ball around the strike zone. In his 21 innings in relief, Roach has continued to post an elite groundball/fly-ball rate (66%/16%). At Coors, that’s a huge edge.
San Diego hitters have 25 career hits in 87 AB’s (.287) against Juan Nicasio. The Padres are swinging some hot bats these past few games with 41 runs scored over their past eight games. Nicasio is the type of pitcher that frequently gets into trouble. He’ll escape some jams like any other pitcher but his frequent disastrous starts that have plagued him throughout his stint in the big leagues is a warning sign that makes him too big a risk when he’s a price. Nicasio’s 3.77 ERA is not supported by his skills and so regression is coming. He has a slight groundball lean of 43% against 37% fly-outs. Nicasio has walked 10 and struck out 15 over his last five starts covering 27 frames. His durability has always been an issue and the deeper we get into the season the worse his skills become. The Rockies are almost always tough at Coors but what we have here is an EXTREME groundball pitcher in Donn Roach at an EXTREME hitter’s park taking back a price and that’s a bet we’ll make almost every time.
Milwaukee @ CHICAGO
CHICAGO +127 over Milwaukee
Marco Estrada is 3-1 with an ERA of 3.28 after eight starts. Estrada also has a nifty WHIP of 1.09 and 46 K’s in 49 innings with just 14 walks issued. However, Estrada also has benefitted from an unsustainable 85% strand rate over his last five starts and his groundball/fly-ball split of 40%/40% suggests that there are some disaster starts forthcoming. With the wind blowing out today and being a fly-ball pitcher, Estrada could be in for a short outing.
By contrast, Travis Wood has a 66% strand rate and that is the main reason for his misleading ERA of 4.91. Fact is, Wood has 44 K’s in 48 innings, he has outstanding control and regression in his ERA is around the corner. Also note that Wood has a 2.39 ERA in 26.1 innings at Wrigley. The opposing Brewers have struggled against LHP and against fly-ballers. With a boatload of strikeouts and a solid history against the Crew, Wood has a great chance to defeat them again.
San Diego @ COLORADO
San Diego +136 over COLORADO
The Rockies bats have cooled off with just 12 runs scored over their last five games and three runs scored or fewer in five of their last eight. Now the Rockies will face a pitcher they’ve never seen in Donn Roach. Roach has worked 21 innings out of the pen this season for the Padres but is more comfortable as a starter, as his 44 games started in the minors over the past two years will attest to. The Angels traded Roach to the Padres in the deal that sent Ernesto Frieri to Los Angeles. While Frieri became a mainstay of the Angels’ bullpen, Roach dominated the minors’ most challenging circuit for pitchers. He was a prolific ground-ball artist in the Cal League, racking up a 3.8 groundout/flyout ratio. Roach lives off his devastating sinker, which sits in the low 90s and tops out at 94. He routinely pitches deep into games getting quick outs with his sinker. When he does go deeper in counts, he turns to his tumbling splitter to get swings and misses. Roach does have a third pitch, a downer curveball in the mid-70s. He doesn’t go to the curve much, usually employing it early in counts on his second or third trip through the order. He's a good athlete with a clean delivery and a feel for moving the ball around the strike zone. In his 21 innings in relief, Roach has continued to post an elite groundball/fly-ball rate (66%/16%). At Coors, that’s a huge edge.
San Diego hitters have 25 career hits in 87 AB’s (.287) against Juan Nicasio. The Padres are swinging some hot bats these past few games with 41 runs scored over their past eight games. Nicasio is the type of pitcher that frequently gets into trouble. He’ll escape some jams like any other pitcher but his frequent disastrous starts that have plagued him throughout his stint in the big leagues is a warning sign that makes him too big a risk when he’s a price. Nicasio’s 3.77 ERA is not supported by his skills and so regression is coming. He has a slight groundball lean of 43% against 37% fly-outs. Nicasio has walked 10 and struck out 15 over his last five starts covering 27 frames. His durability has always been an issue and the deeper we get into the season the worse his skills become. The Rockies are almost always tough at Coors but what we have here is an EXTREME groundball pitcher in Donn Roach at an EXTREME hitter’s park taking back a price and that’s a bet we’ll make almost every time.
It is unusual that Rosenthal (closer) and Martinez (set up man 7 & 8) BOTH have pitched in the last 4 games. Even controversial to risk those young arms. SO IMO there is no way either will be available today. And with Garcia coming off arm surgery and haven't pitched in one year and one day (exactly) it is questionable that he will throw many innings. SO without Rosenthal and Martinez, to boot, a wager on SL is very very questionable. Sure it is baseball, a 3 run double or a bad hop and anyone can win. But the capper(s) picking SL are not wise to do so.
Agree Atlanta is in the doldrums. Not saying to bet Atlanta, either. I just think with Garcia having not pitched in a year and both stud relievers almost certainly not available, it is a "pass". If anything, it is an "over" even though both teams are not hitting. But my money, which was on SL yesterday, is not going on them today. Cardinal org is solid, would not let Garcia go out there if they didn't think he is competitive, but he still is a huge risk today.
