Dave Cokin
Matchup: Pittsburgh at Chi. Cubs
Time: 2:20 PM EDT (Sun)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) OHLENDORF, R vs. (L) LILLY, T
Play: Pittsburgh (ML +219)
The Cubs are huge favorites as they look to avoid what would be an embarrassing sweep at Wrigley against the lowly Pirates. Considering that Chicago is not even a .500 team at home, the number in this game is simply too high. Ross Ohlendorf is making his second start off the DL and he was not very sharp in his return. But Ted Lilly has yet to find his form after getting off to a late start with his own injury issues. Lilly is getting by, but his K/IP ratio is way down from the norm, and he's therefore somewhat overpriced for this game. The Pirates have owned the Cubbies so far this season, and road dogs trying to complete the series sweep are a robust +740 so far this year. Make no mistake, the Cubs deserve to be the favorite in this game. But given the current team form and the fact their ace lefty is not displaying peak form, there's all kinds of value in catching the Bucs at such long odds. I'll gun for the big dog winner with the Pirates.
Matchup: Houston at San Francisco
Time: 4:05 PM EDT (Sun)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) MYERS, B vs. (L) ZITO, B
Play: Houston (ML +165)
Barry Zito has been terrific for the Giants, and I'm really not reading much into the 7BB he issued last time out. But Zito will likely have to be at his best today to beat even the lowly Astros. Houston sends out Brett Myers, who hasn't been bad at all lately. The big key here, however, is that the already offensively challenged Giants may well have to go with a patchwork lineup for the series finale. Pablo Sandoval got hurt on Friday, and I doubt he'll be in action today. Mark DeRosa is banged up, Benjie Molina is due for day off behind the dish, and closer Brian Wilson had to throw 39 pitches in his Saturday save, likely rendering him inactive for this game. The Astros are a road dog looking to avert the series sweep, and playing on those sides has been a big winner so far this season. Good spot for a gamble on the big dog, so the Astros are my choice today.
Dave Cokin
Matchup: Boston at Orlando
Time: 3:30 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Orlando (-6.5 -110)
The Celtics are not going to have a letdown off the big series win over the top-seeded Cavaliers. This team has too much veteran poise to fall victim to that tendency. But I like the Magic to get off to the good start in this series. Orlando has been awesome in the playoffs so far, winning all eight of their games, most of them in spectacularly easy fashion. The Magic are obviously the fresher team coming off a much less taxing series than the Celtics, and I think Orlando matches up well with this opponent as well. I believe the number for Game One is a bit on the short side and the Magic know full well they can't afford to let the Celtics get hold of the home court advantage. Look for a strong statement by the higher seed in the opener. Go with the Magic minus the points