SPORTS ADVISORS
SUNDAY, MAY 16
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS
Boston (8-3 SU and ATS) at Orlando (8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS)
The red-hot Magic, aiming for their second straight trip to the NBA Finals, put their perfect playoff mark on the line when they open the Eastern Conference finals against the upset-minded Celtics at Amway Arena. Orlando, which at 59-23 had the league’s second-best record behind Cleveland in the regular season, swept Charlotte in the first round, then pounded No. 3 seed Atlanta in four games in the second round. The Magic ripped the Hawks by 43, 14, 30 and 14 points again, and the 101-point margin of victory was the largest ever in a best-of-7 NBA playoff series. Orlando finished off the Hawks with Monday’s 98-84 road win as a six-point favorite. Vince Carter led the Game 4 attack with 22 points, and he was one of five Magic players to score in double figures. Stan Van Gundy’s troops are riding a 14-game winning streak dating to the regular season (13-1 ATS), including 10 double-digit routs and an average victory margin of 16.8 ppg. Going back to Jan. 20, Orlando is 42-8 SU, with 28 of those wins being by double figures. Point guard Jameer Nelson (20.5 ppg) has led the Magic in scoring during the postseason, and Dwight Howard is averaging a double-double of 15.4 points and 11.2 rebounds per game in the playoffs. Boston took out Miami in five games in the first round, then pulled off the upset of No. 1 overall seed Cleveland in six games. The Celtics trailed 2-1 against the Cavaliers, then won the next three games, clinching the series with Thursday’s 94-85 home win as a 1½-point chalk night. Kevin Garnett paced the Game 6 victory with 22 points and 12 rebounds, and Rajon Rondo had 21 points and 12 assists. Rondo leads a balanced Celtics squad in averaging 18 ppg in the playoffs, with Garnett (17.6), Ray Allen (17.4) and Paul Pierce (16.3) right behind. Rondo is also leading the league in assists in the postseason (11.1 per game). Orlando took three of four meetings with Boston this season (2-2 ATS) and has won five of the last six overall (4-2 ATS). These teams haven’t faced off since Feb. 7, when the Magic notched a 96-89 road win as a three-point underdog. Orlando also knocked out the Celts in the second round last year, rallying from a 3-2 series deficit and finishing it off with a 101-82 blowout in Game 7 in Beantown as a 2½-point pup. Going back to Game 7 last year, the visitor and underdog have cashed in five straight in this rivalry, and Boston is 5-2 ATS in its last seven visits to Amway Arena. The SU winner has cashed in all 11 of the Celts’ playoff contests this season and in 21 straight games overall for Doc Rivers’ team, and the SU winner is 15-1 ATS in the Magic’s last 16 outings.
Boston is 29-17 on the highway (24-21-1 ATS), going 3-2 SU and ATS in the playoffs, including blowout wins over Cleveland in Game 2 (104-86) and Game 5 (120-88). The C’s are averaging 98.5 ppg (47.8 percent shooting) away from Boston, while giving up 94.3 ppg (44.3 percent shooting). Orlando is 38-7 at home (27-17-1 ATS) this season, including 4-0 (3-1 ATS) in the playoffs, outscoring visitors by more than 12 ppg on the year (105.3-92.9), while shooting 48.4 percent and allowing 43.4 percent shooting. The Magic have won 11 straight (8-2-1 ATS) and 17 of their last 18 (13-4-1 ATS) inside Amway Arena.
Along with their 8-3 ATS mark in the postseason (3-0 last three), the Celtics are on pointspread upswings of 12-4-1 as a playoff pup and 16-7 when catching five to 10½ points. However, Boston has gone 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine Sunday starts and 4-9 ATS in its last 13 outings coming off a SU win.
The Magic are on a plethora of positive ATS runs, including 23-7-1 overall (13-1 last 14), 7-1-1 at home, 23-5-1 as a favorite, 7-0 as a playoff chalk, 12-3-1 against winning teams, 17-5 after a spread-cover and 20-6-1 following a SU win. Also, in last year’s six-game upset of the Cavaliers in the conference finals, Orlando went 5-1 ATS. Orlando sports a bundle of “under” streaks, including 5-2-1 overall, 12-5-2 at home, 20-5-1 on Sunday, 33-16-2 as a favorite and 7-2-1 as a playoff chalk. That said, in last year’s conference finals against Cleveland, the over hit in five of the six games. Boston is on a 7-2 “under” roll in conference finals contests, but is otherwise on “over” stretches of 4-1 on the highway (all in the playoffs), 6-1 after either a SU or an ATS win, 8-3 as an underdog and 22-10-1 after a two-day break. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in seven of the last eight clashes overall, including three of four this season. Also, the under is on a 9-3 tear between these two in Orlando.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO and UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
St. Louis (21-16) at Cincinnati (20-16)
The top two teams in the National League Central square off for the rubber match of a three-game series at Great American Ballpark, as the Cardinals’ Brad Penny (3-3, 1.70 ERA) tries to snap a personal three-game losing skid when he matches up against the Reds’ Bronson Arroyo (2-2, 5.36) After dropping a 4-3 decision on Friday, Cincinnati bounced back to score a 4-3 win Saturday, gunning down the final out at home plate. The Cardinals remain just 3-8 in their last 11 games (3-5 on the road), and they’re in additional slumps of 2-5 against N.L. Central rivals, 5-10 against winning teams and 1-6 versus right-handed starters, but St. Louis has won four straight on Sunday and six of eight in the third game of a series. Cincinnati was on a five-game winning streak – all against the N.L. Central – before Friday’s 4-3 loss. The Reds, who had outscored their opponents 35-6 during their five-game winning streak, are on a 6-3 run at home but they are just 2-3 at home against the Cardinals this season. This is already the third time these rivals have squared off in a series this season. St. Louis has won five of the eight contests, and going back to last year, the Redbirds are on a 6-3 roll against Cincinnati. Penny has lost three straight games despite a 2.84 ERA, including Tuesday when he gave up four runs (none earned) over seven innings in a 6-3 loss to the Astros. On the road, Penny is 2-1 with a 1.95 ERA in four outings and he’s already seen the Reds twice this season, with the Cards losing both, 2-1 on April 8 and 3-2 on April 30. In his career, Penny is 7-3 with a 3.27 ERA in 14 starts against the Reds, and at Great American Ballpark he is 5-0 with a 1.80 ERA in six starts, allowing eight runs in 40 innings of work.
Arroyo is 2-0 with a 3.05 ERA in his last three outings, but at home he is just 0-1 with a 6.50 ERA. He shut down the Pirates on Monday, giving up one run on five hits over seven innings of a 2-1 victory. He also dominated the Cardinals on April 8, giving up one run on four hits in eight innings of work, with Cincinnati winning, 2-1. Arroyo is 6-8 with a 4.33 ERA in 23 appearances (21 starts) against the Cardinals. Also, the Reds are 8-1 in Arroyo’s last nine starts against the N.L. Central, but they’ve lost 13 of his last 16 Sunday starts. St. Louis is on a slew of “under” streaks, including 24-10-1 overall, 10-2 on the road, 13-4-1 within the division, 8-2-1 against right-handed starters and 9-2 against teams with a winning record. Also, the under is 6-1 in Penny’s seven starts this season. Cincinnati has topped the total in five of nine against right-handed starters at home, but the “under” is 4-1-1 in the Reds’ last six against division foes, 31-14-7 in their last 52 against winning teams and 16-5-6 in their last 27 on Sunday. And with Arroyo on the hill, the under is on surges of 16-6-4 overall, 7-1-1 at home, 18-6-4 against the N.L. Central and 23-5-2 when he’s coming off five days of rest. Finally, the under is 5-0-1 in the last six series meetings, but 10 of the last 15 clashes in Cincinnati have hurdled the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Minnesota (22-14) at N.Y. Yankees (24-12)
The Yankees’ Sergio Mitre (0-1, 3.86) gets his second start of the season as he takes the mound at Yankee Stadium in the finale of a three-game series against the Twins, who will hand the ball to Nick Blackburn (3-1, 4.76). New York has now beaten the Twins 12 straight times after Andy Pettitte pitched the Bronx Bombers to a 7-1 victory Saturday. Before Friday’s 8-4 series-opening win, the Yankees had lost four of five games to end a road trip, a slump that came on the heels of a six-game winning streak. Still, New York remains on upticks of 100-43 overall, 50-11 at Yankee Stadium (12-2 this year), 39-14 against the A.L. Central, 51-24 on Sunday and 45-10 when facing right-handed starters at home. Even with the first two losses in this series, Minnesota has still won seven of 12 and is 39-21 in its last 60 overall. However, the Twins have lost 44 of 64 against the A.L. East. The Yankees swept the Twins out of the best-of-5 American League Division Series last October, finishing the year 10-0 against Minnesota, so they’ve now won 12 straight in this lopsided rivalry. In fact, New York has won 52 of the last 68 meetings overall and 29 of the last 34 in the Bronx. Blackburn was dominant in his last start a week ago, scattering four hits in seven shutout innings en route to a 6-0 victory. However, Blackburn has been knocked around on the road this year, going 1-1 with a 6.27 ERA, giving up 14 runs (13 earned) in 18 2/3 innings. Minnesota is unbeaten in Blackburn’s last four starts overall, but they’re 8-19 in his last 27 road outings, 2-13 in his last 15 roadies against winning teams and 4-9 in his last 13 against the A.L. East. Also, the Twins have lost four straight times with Blackburn facing the Yankees, including a 4-3, 12-inning defeat in Game 2 of last year’s ALDS. Including that contest, Blackburn is 0-1 with a 4.88 ERA in five career starts against New York. Mitre made his first start of the season on Monday and took the loss in a 5-4 defeat in Detroit, giving up four runs (three earned) on five hits over 4 1/3 innings. Mitre has never faced the Twins in his career. The Twins are on “under” runs of 5-1 overall, 21-5-2 against the A.L. East, 36-16-1 on Sunday, 18-7-1 when Blackburn starts on the road, 10-2 when Blackburn pitches on Sunday and 5-0-1 when Blackburn faces A.L. East teams. Likewise, the Yankees have stayed low in five of six overall (all against the A.L. Central), but the over is 5-3 in their last eight home games and 6-2 in their last eight Sunday contests.
Finally, the under is 30-12-4 in the last 46 Twins-Yankees battles in the Bronx, and all three playoff meetings in October stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER
SUNDAY, MAY 16
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS
Boston (8-3 SU and ATS) at Orlando (8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS)
The red-hot Magic, aiming for their second straight trip to the NBA Finals, put their perfect playoff mark on the line when they open the Eastern Conference finals against the upset-minded Celtics at Amway Arena. Orlando, which at 59-23 had the league’s second-best record behind Cleveland in the regular season, swept Charlotte in the first round, then pounded No. 3 seed Atlanta in four games in the second round. The Magic ripped the Hawks by 43, 14, 30 and 14 points again, and the 101-point margin of victory was the largest ever in a best-of-7 NBA playoff series. Orlando finished off the Hawks with Monday’s 98-84 road win as a six-point favorite. Vince Carter led the Game 4 attack with 22 points, and he was one of five Magic players to score in double figures. Stan Van Gundy’s troops are riding a 14-game winning streak dating to the regular season (13-1 ATS), including 10 double-digit routs and an average victory margin of 16.8 ppg. Going back to Jan. 20, Orlando is 42-8 SU, with 28 of those wins being by double figures. Point guard Jameer Nelson (20.5 ppg) has led the Magic in scoring during the postseason, and Dwight Howard is averaging a double-double of 15.4 points and 11.2 rebounds per game in the playoffs. Boston took out Miami in five games in the first round, then pulled off the upset of No. 1 overall seed Cleveland in six games. The Celtics trailed 2-1 against the Cavaliers, then won the next three games, clinching the series with Thursday’s 94-85 home win as a 1½-point chalk night. Kevin Garnett paced the Game 6 victory with 22 points and 12 rebounds, and Rajon Rondo had 21 points and 12 assists. Rondo leads a balanced Celtics squad in averaging 18 ppg in the playoffs, with Garnett (17.6), Ray Allen (17.4) and Paul Pierce (16.3) right behind. Rondo is also leading the league in assists in the postseason (11.1 per game). Orlando took three of four meetings with Boston this season (2-2 ATS) and has won five of the last six overall (4-2 ATS). These teams haven’t faced off since Feb. 7, when the Magic notched a 96-89 road win as a three-point underdog. Orlando also knocked out the Celts in the second round last year, rallying from a 3-2 series deficit and finishing it off with a 101-82 blowout in Game 7 in Beantown as a 2½-point pup. Going back to Game 7 last year, the visitor and underdog have cashed in five straight in this rivalry, and Boston is 5-2 ATS in its last seven visits to Amway Arena. The SU winner has cashed in all 11 of the Celts’ playoff contests this season and in 21 straight games overall for Doc Rivers’ team, and the SU winner is 15-1 ATS in the Magic’s last 16 outings.
Boston is 29-17 on the highway (24-21-1 ATS), going 3-2 SU and ATS in the playoffs, including blowout wins over Cleveland in Game 2 (104-86) and Game 5 (120-88). The C’s are averaging 98.5 ppg (47.8 percent shooting) away from Boston, while giving up 94.3 ppg (44.3 percent shooting). Orlando is 38-7 at home (27-17-1 ATS) this season, including 4-0 (3-1 ATS) in the playoffs, outscoring visitors by more than 12 ppg on the year (105.3-92.9), while shooting 48.4 percent and allowing 43.4 percent shooting. The Magic have won 11 straight (8-2-1 ATS) and 17 of their last 18 (13-4-1 ATS) inside Amway Arena.
Along with their 8-3 ATS mark in the postseason (3-0 last three), the Celtics are on pointspread upswings of 12-4-1 as a playoff pup and 16-7 when catching five to 10½ points. However, Boston has gone 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine Sunday starts and 4-9 ATS in its last 13 outings coming off a SU win.
The Magic are on a plethora of positive ATS runs, including 23-7-1 overall (13-1 last 14), 7-1-1 at home, 23-5-1 as a favorite, 7-0 as a playoff chalk, 12-3-1 against winning teams, 17-5 after a spread-cover and 20-6-1 following a SU win. Also, in last year’s six-game upset of the Cavaliers in the conference finals, Orlando went 5-1 ATS. Orlando sports a bundle of “under” streaks, including 5-2-1 overall, 12-5-2 at home, 20-5-1 on Sunday, 33-16-2 as a favorite and 7-2-1 as a playoff chalk. That said, in last year’s conference finals against Cleveland, the over hit in five of the six games. Boston is on a 7-2 “under” roll in conference finals contests, but is otherwise on “over” stretches of 4-1 on the highway (all in the playoffs), 6-1 after either a SU or an ATS win, 8-3 as an underdog and 22-10-1 after a two-day break. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in seven of the last eight clashes overall, including three of four this season. Also, the under is on a 9-3 tear between these two in Orlando.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO and UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
St. Louis (21-16) at Cincinnati (20-16)
The top two teams in the National League Central square off for the rubber match of a three-game series at Great American Ballpark, as the Cardinals’ Brad Penny (3-3, 1.70 ERA) tries to snap a personal three-game losing skid when he matches up against the Reds’ Bronson Arroyo (2-2, 5.36) After dropping a 4-3 decision on Friday, Cincinnati bounced back to score a 4-3 win Saturday, gunning down the final out at home plate. The Cardinals remain just 3-8 in their last 11 games (3-5 on the road), and they’re in additional slumps of 2-5 against N.L. Central rivals, 5-10 against winning teams and 1-6 versus right-handed starters, but St. Louis has won four straight on Sunday and six of eight in the third game of a series. Cincinnati was on a five-game winning streak – all against the N.L. Central – before Friday’s 4-3 loss. The Reds, who had outscored their opponents 35-6 during their five-game winning streak, are on a 6-3 run at home but they are just 2-3 at home against the Cardinals this season. This is already the third time these rivals have squared off in a series this season. St. Louis has won five of the eight contests, and going back to last year, the Redbirds are on a 6-3 roll against Cincinnati. Penny has lost three straight games despite a 2.84 ERA, including Tuesday when he gave up four runs (none earned) over seven innings in a 6-3 loss to the Astros. On the road, Penny is 2-1 with a 1.95 ERA in four outings and he’s already seen the Reds twice this season, with the Cards losing both, 2-1 on April 8 and 3-2 on April 30. In his career, Penny is 7-3 with a 3.27 ERA in 14 starts against the Reds, and at Great American Ballpark he is 5-0 with a 1.80 ERA in six starts, allowing eight runs in 40 innings of work.
Arroyo is 2-0 with a 3.05 ERA in his last three outings, but at home he is just 0-1 with a 6.50 ERA. He shut down the Pirates on Monday, giving up one run on five hits over seven innings of a 2-1 victory. He also dominated the Cardinals on April 8, giving up one run on four hits in eight innings of work, with Cincinnati winning, 2-1. Arroyo is 6-8 with a 4.33 ERA in 23 appearances (21 starts) against the Cardinals. Also, the Reds are 8-1 in Arroyo’s last nine starts against the N.L. Central, but they’ve lost 13 of his last 16 Sunday starts. St. Louis is on a slew of “under” streaks, including 24-10-1 overall, 10-2 on the road, 13-4-1 within the division, 8-2-1 against right-handed starters and 9-2 against teams with a winning record. Also, the under is 6-1 in Penny’s seven starts this season. Cincinnati has topped the total in five of nine against right-handed starters at home, but the “under” is 4-1-1 in the Reds’ last six against division foes, 31-14-7 in their last 52 against winning teams and 16-5-6 in their last 27 on Sunday. And with Arroyo on the hill, the under is on surges of 16-6-4 overall, 7-1-1 at home, 18-6-4 against the N.L. Central and 23-5-2 when he’s coming off five days of rest. Finally, the under is 5-0-1 in the last six series meetings, but 10 of the last 15 clashes in Cincinnati have hurdled the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Minnesota (22-14) at N.Y. Yankees (24-12)
The Yankees’ Sergio Mitre (0-1, 3.86) gets his second start of the season as he takes the mound at Yankee Stadium in the finale of a three-game series against the Twins, who will hand the ball to Nick Blackburn (3-1, 4.76). New York has now beaten the Twins 12 straight times after Andy Pettitte pitched the Bronx Bombers to a 7-1 victory Saturday. Before Friday’s 8-4 series-opening win, the Yankees had lost four of five games to end a road trip, a slump that came on the heels of a six-game winning streak. Still, New York remains on upticks of 100-43 overall, 50-11 at Yankee Stadium (12-2 this year), 39-14 against the A.L. Central, 51-24 on Sunday and 45-10 when facing right-handed starters at home. Even with the first two losses in this series, Minnesota has still won seven of 12 and is 39-21 in its last 60 overall. However, the Twins have lost 44 of 64 against the A.L. East. The Yankees swept the Twins out of the best-of-5 American League Division Series last October, finishing the year 10-0 against Minnesota, so they’ve now won 12 straight in this lopsided rivalry. In fact, New York has won 52 of the last 68 meetings overall and 29 of the last 34 in the Bronx. Blackburn was dominant in his last start a week ago, scattering four hits in seven shutout innings en route to a 6-0 victory. However, Blackburn has been knocked around on the road this year, going 1-1 with a 6.27 ERA, giving up 14 runs (13 earned) in 18 2/3 innings. Minnesota is unbeaten in Blackburn’s last four starts overall, but they’re 8-19 in his last 27 road outings, 2-13 in his last 15 roadies against winning teams and 4-9 in his last 13 against the A.L. East. Also, the Twins have lost four straight times with Blackburn facing the Yankees, including a 4-3, 12-inning defeat in Game 2 of last year’s ALDS. Including that contest, Blackburn is 0-1 with a 4.88 ERA in five career starts against New York. Mitre made his first start of the season on Monday and took the loss in a 5-4 defeat in Detroit, giving up four runs (three earned) on five hits over 4 1/3 innings. Mitre has never faced the Twins in his career. The Twins are on “under” runs of 5-1 overall, 21-5-2 against the A.L. East, 36-16-1 on Sunday, 18-7-1 when Blackburn starts on the road, 10-2 when Blackburn pitches on Sunday and 5-0-1 when Blackburn faces A.L. East teams. Likewise, the Yankees have stayed low in five of six overall (all against the A.L. Central), but the over is 5-3 in their last eight home games and 6-2 in their last eight Sunday contests.
Finally, the under is 30-12-4 in the last 46 Twins-Yankees battles in the Bronx, and all three playoff meetings in October stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER
