Malinsky March Madness
4* #833 WILLIAM & MARY over NORTHEASTERN
The markets simply refuse to acknowledge the season that a veteran
William & Mary team has had, in this case calling for a high degree
of dominance by Northeastern in a game that will almost be played at
a pre-shot clock pace. So naturally we are in play.
First the overall perspective, in terms of the Reputation vs. Reality
issues. Northeastern is 21-10 overall and 14-5 in Colonial play while
William & Mary checks in at 21-9 and 13-6, and the schedules have
been comparable. Only twice in those 19 C.A.A. games did the Tribe
lose by more than six points, on the road vs. Old Dominion and
V.C.U., and they have gone 12-3 ATS as underdogs this season, with
nine outright wins, including such victims as Richmond, Wake Forest
and Maryland in non-conference play. But a program that brings little
sex appeal managed to do that without any significant appreciation by
the betting public, which this line shows.
So how does it happen? With good basketball, instead of raw
athleticism. In SR starters Sean McCurdy, David Schneider and Danny
Sumner, and JR Marcus Kitts, there is a core group that has played
together for a long time, including a run to the championship game of
this tourney two years ago, and SO Quinn McDowell has stepped up big
after his excellent FR season. That take excellent care of the
basketball (417 assists vs. 318 TO?s), which limits the opportunities
for the opposition to get out into the open court for easy scoring
chances, and they have enough shooters that can knock down triples to
play well against zone defenses, which is a key to beating
Northeastern, which they did 53-52 at home in the first go-round.
That made it a 4-2 SU run in head-to-head meetings in this series the
last 3+ seasons (the careers of the current SR?s), with the Huskies
never scoring more than 63 points in any of those games.
What do we project today? More of the same. This is a game that the
underdog knows that they are capable of winning outright, and it
becomes even harder for Northeastern to build a margin because of the
toll on the legs last night?s draining win over Hofstra created ?
Matt Janning went 46 minutes, Manny Adako and Nkem Ojougboh 45 each,
and Chaisson Allen 44. So in a close contest flowing at a snail?s
pace, this line offers tremendous value.