ThisProGambler Lay the Points with the Thunder, but the Trailblazers Will Need the Points
Posted on March 7, 2010 by ThisProGambler
There are six games on the Sunday NBA card, and I’m looking to the West to make some money. There’s value in the line for the Thunder/Kings game, and I’m picking the Thunder to cover on the road. In a nationally televised ESPN game, I’m betting on the Trailblazers keep it close with the Nuggets.
Take the Oklahoma Thunder -3 1/2 at the Sacramento Kings. In spite of winning 7 of their last 10, the Thunder have had a bit of a wake up call in the last two weeks losing to the three best teams they played – Denver, San Antonio, and Phoenix. But, they’ve still won 13 out of their last 16. When these two teams first met back in November in Sacramento, the Kings as a 2 point favorite beat the Thunder by 3 points. But that young 3-3 Thunder team was very different than it is now. Other than losing to the Kings in Nov. and to the Clippers 4 days later, the
Thunder have not been beat all year by a team that isn’t a playoff contender. So, we can pretty much count on them beating the Kings. The question is will they cover 3 1/2 points? The Thunder have won Against the Spread on the Road 65% of the time for the season. They’ve taken their foot off the gas pedal a little early in some recent games, however, and only covered the spread in 4 of their last 10. But, the line has already been adjusted for that and the Thunder are not be asked to cover anything other than what comes straight from the power rankings (less the home court advantage Sacramento has). On March 2, in Oklahoma City the Thunder beat the Kings by only 4 points – not the 10 1/2 the lines makers gave them. But, the Thunder – normally one of the best defensive teams in the league - have been critical of themselves for the poor defensive performance in that Sacramento game and the subsequent Denver Nuggets game. They don’t intend to repeat it today. I’ll give the Kings some credit for playing well ATS lately, but not today.
Take the Thunder -3 1/2.
Take the Portland Trailblazers +6 1/2 (7 if you can get it) vs. the Denver Nuggets. The Trailblazers have won 5 of the last 6, and now go to Denver for a one game road trip that’s their biggest game of the week. They will be focused for this nationally televised ESPN game. A solid road team, the Trailblazers win 67% of the time Against the Spread on the Road. In their last ten games, they’ve gone 7-3, but more importantly they are 5-1 SU and ATS on the Road. Marcus Canby has still not been worked into the regular rotation and may miss play yet again after spraining an ankle in practice on Friday. But, Denver will have a far more difficult time playing without Kenyon Martin, who will be gone for a yet to be determined time period. In their last five games at home, the Nuggets have gone 4-1 SU and 2-3 ATS. This is the last of a three game homestand, where the Nuggets have already won 2 and they take off for a 4 game road trip that begins in Minnesota on Wednesday. Both teams should play for a national audience, and the game should be close.
Take the Trailblazers +6 1/2 (7 if you can get it).
Note on the Lakers/Magic game. The Total on this game sits at 197, and cries for an under bet. The Lakers haven’t lost three straight in over two years and Phil Jackson will be trying to avoid this becoming a win-less road trip. That means he will emphasis defense, which is where the Lakers reach when they really want a win. But, I expect this to be a close, hard fought game and would not be shocked if we ended up with some overtime. That alone is backing me off the Under play.
0-3 yesterday but you can keep a good guy down look for a bounce back today..