Service Plays Sunday 3/27/11

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Larry Ness

722 Kansas -11.5 (-110) BetUS
vs 721 Va. Commonwealth Analysis:

Triple-Dime 10* Elite 8 Game of the Year is on Kansas at 2:10 ET
 
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SuperSPortsGroup CBB - Game of the week - 3/27
VCU v. Kansas 2:20pm
PICK: Kansas -11.5 Game Best bet of the day

Kentucky v. UNC 5:30pm
PICK: UNC +1.5 Game Game of the week
PICK: UNDER 146 Game Best bet of the day #2
 
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Norm Hitzges

NCAA
******** Kansas – vs Virginia Commonwealth


NBA
******** Memphis -2 vs San Antonio
******** Houston +8.5 vs Miami
******** Boston – vs Minnesota
******** Phoenix/Dallas Under 208.5
 

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Stan Lisowski

3* Dallas -1.5

Belief here is that Phoenix is finished and is just playing out the string. Nash is banged up and hurting and you wonder how long he’ll play from night to night. Dallas is 8-2 straight up and 7-3 against the spread in this series and are 11-1 outright vs. teams from the Pacific division. The Suns are only 2-6 straight up when made a home dog, while they are 7-15 vs. the line at home off of a loss.
 

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BIG AL's 3-GAME NBA PACKAGE (TIPS at 12 NOON)!

Our 3 selections include the 76ers, Suns and Celtics.
 
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Eric Maguire

Mavs at Suns
Pick: Mavs -1

The Mavs have won three consecutive games and laying just a point here at Phoenix. The Suns are coming off a six-point loss to the banged-up Hornets and shouldn't really be a threat to stay close with a team like Dallas, even if the Mavs are coming off a back-to-back today. Lay the mere point. Pick: Dallas -1.
 
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SPORTS WAGERS

Florida +280 over PITTSBURGH

With Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin in the line-up this line would be warranted but without those two and with the Pens coming off three consecutive wins over Detroit, Philly and New Jersey, this is truly a vulnerable spot for them. The Pens have not only won three in a row but all three wins came via the shootout and it’s also worth noting that they have the Flyers on deck on Tuesday. So, in terms of a situational play, the Panthers offer up all kinds of value here because the Pens could certainly take this day off. Pittsburgh is nowhere near being in panic mode. They’re a lock to make the playoffs and they proved to themselves and to every team they’ve played that they can win without its two stars. Against the Panthers they don’t have to prove a thing and that, too, makes them vulnerable. In this league any team can beat any team of the situation is right and this situation couldn’t be better for an energetic and determined Panther club. Florida is only seven games under .500 on the year which means they’ve beaten a lot of good teams already and at this price under these conditions, they’re certainly worth a shot. Play: Florida +280 (Risking 2 units).


Boston +117 over PHILADELPHIA

Both teams played yesterday with the Bruins losing to the Rangers (1-0) and the Flyers winning on Long Island 4-1. Once again the Flyers win was a misleading one and the only reason they won is because that stiff Rick DiPietro couldn’t stop anything. He allowed four goals on 22 shots while Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 36 of 27 shots. Once again the Flyers were outplayed badly, just as they were in their previous game, a 2-1 OT loss to the Pens. Philadelphia is not sharp at the moment despite what its record suggests. They’re getting outplayed and badly out-chanced every time they take the ice. The Bruins are one of the best road teams in the league. The B’s 10 road losses is the third best mark in the league. It’s also worth mentioning that these two have played three times this season with Boston winning 7-5 and 3-0 and Philly winning the other one in OT. In other words, the Flyers have not beaten the Bruins in regulation in all three games this season and this one isn’t likely to be any different. Play: Boston +117 (Risking 2 units).


Kentucky –1½ over North Carolina Pinnacle

There's no doubt that North Carolina poses a challenge for Kentucky -- just as Kentucky poses a challenge for North Carolina but what we really have here is an undervalued Wildcat team against an overvalued Tar Heels. How do we figure? Well, Kentucky is one of the top 10 teams in team defense and specifically in effective FG percentage allowed and you saw that against Ohio State. The Wildcats should have been a 2-seed and that the committee ignored their run in the SEC tournament while UNC should have been a 3- or 4-seed, and that the committee ignored them losing in their conference tourney. North Carolina has a trait that is consistent in a lot of losing teams: The Tar Heels struggle to shoot the ball, ranking 166th in effective field goal percentage, which is similar to points per shot. UK has some older guys who will crash the boards and play good interior defense to help stabilize the freshmen. And while freshmen usually turn the ball over and shoot poor free throws, that is not the case this year. The Wildcats are ninth in fewest turnovers per possession and they shoot free throws well, too. They don't have that exploitable weakness, while UNC does because of its shooting. The Wildcats tournament résumé is also much stronger after they beat two really tough teams in WVU and OSU while the Tar Heels beat two very flawed teams in Washington and Marquette. The Tar Heels run ends here. Play: Kentucky –1½ (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).


Kansas –11½ over VCU

There comes a time when the Cinderella story must come to an end and truth be told, this is a horrible matchup for the Rams. Kansas is one of the best rebounding teams and shoots the highest percentage of any team in the nation. The Jayhawks guards won’t struggle like the Seminoles against VCU pressure. The Rams rank 213th in offensive rebounding percentage and 318th out of 345 in defensive rebounding percentage. Kansas won't miss often, but when they do it will be easy for the Morris twins to clean up. KU will light up the Rams on the glass and they should light them up offensively too. Shaka Smart has become the hot name in coaching with VCU's success. A proponent of fast-paced, free-wheeling offense and pressure defense, he has given his players freedom and pushed the right buttons during the Rams' tournament run. However, that style seldom works over a prolonged period of time. The Jayhawks will be prepped well for this game and won’t take the Rams lightly. The Jayhawks are far superior in every category including depth. The Jayhawks' reserves outscored the University of Richmond's subs 31-8 on Friday night and there is just no way this 12-6 CAA team can match up against this true powerhouse. Did you know that these Rams played Richmond in December and lost by 12? –just sayin. The Rams might lose by 30 here. Play: Kansas –11½ (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
 
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GC NBA Totals Play

Sunday 21-1 system: NBA Non conference Game of the Month + Tripe System NCAAB Tourney 5* Power Play. Saturday sweeps with big 7* Tourney GOY Winner and NBA Goes 17 games over .500 with Chicago and Dallas. Free NBA Totals system below.

On Sunday the NBA Totals system is on the Over in the Boston at Minnesota game. Rotation numbers 709/710 at 7:00 eastern. This game fits a totals system that has cashed 11 of 12 times. What we want to do is play the over for road favorites with rest that scored 90 or less as a home favorite of 10 or more and shot 45% or less and their opponent plays with 1 or more days of prior rest. Boston has gone under 9 straight times. They should have their way inside tonight vs a Minnesota team playing their 3rd game without K. Love. Look for this one to play over the total tonight. On Sunday I have two 5* Plays one in the NCAAB Elite 8 game backed with 3 solid systems and several high end angles. In the NBA The 5* play is the Non conference Game of the Month with a 21-1 blowout system which is included win the analysis. We swept the board on Saturday cashing the 7* NCAAB Play and both NBA Games with Chicago and Dallas, For the Bonus Play take the over in the Boston at Minnesota game. GC
 
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WUNDERDOG
1 OF 3
CBB 268-222 Last 490 picks +$2850

Game: Virginia Commonwealth at Kansas (2:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: Virginia Commonwealth +11.5 (-110)

VCU wasn't even supposed to be in this tourney. At least that was the general consensus when they were picked for a play-in game over Colorado and Virginia Tech. The Rams have used that snub as motivation for every game, and it's working. This team deserves to be in the Elite 8, based on their play. Consider the resume since the start of the tournament. They beat USC by 13. They beat the sixth seed Georgetown by 18. They destroyed the No. 3 seed Purdue (a team many had going this far) by 18. And, they took care of Florida State, putting up 72 points on a team that was playing better defense than anyone! So, forget the name on the jersey. This team is balling right now. The problem for them is that they run into a very tough Kansas squad - a team that could win it all. Kansas should win this game, but VCU will not go down without a fight. After what they've done thus far, they won't be in awe and they won't fear the mighty Jayhawks. The Rams are here to try to win. And, they are
getting a bucketload of points here. VCU is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games as a double-digit underdog. They are now a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight tournament games as well. Under Shaka Smart, this team is 8-1 ATS in tournament games. Yes, Kansas is the better team, but I think VCU keeps this one under the lofty spread.
 
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Gold Sheet

PHILADELPHIA 112 - Sacramento 100—Sacramento reinforced by the
return of G Tyreke Evans from his ongoing foot problems, but not sure that’s
super positive for questionable King chemistry. Word is he doesn’t get along
with rookie F DeMarcus Cousins, and Evans will siphon minutes from G Marcus
Thornton, who’s stepped in and scored 22 ppg in March. Kings still not playing
defense, and Sacto was held to 80 points while shooting a frigid 34.5% in first
meeting against Philly. Sixers have one of the deepest benches in the league,
and Philadelphia is 7-2 SU (6-3 vs. the number) in last 9 at Wells Fargo Center.
Philly cruised in first meeting against Sacto, as the Sixer reserves outscored the
Sacto bench 51-29. Philadelphia is 7-3 against the number hosting “C” teams
this season, and dysfunctional Kings will have a tough time reversing Sixers’ 6-
game series win-and-cover streak. "Totals" note: Sacramento “over” 19-5 last
24 prior to facing Indiana Saturday, and Philadelphia “over” 8-3 last 11 before
Friday’s visit to Miami.
 

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Anybody have WARS Pinnacle?

Millionaire is on N. Carolina
 
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winsportsnow nba plays

Sunday NBA Site Plays Report
Spurs+2.5
Rockets+8.5
Cavaliers+5
Under 194 Celtics
Under 192 Thunder
Warriors-11
Over 188 Lkaers
Mavericks-2


winsportsnow parlay report

Sunday Parlay Report
Warriors-11
Over 188 Lakers
Mavericks-2
 

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Pinnacle Elite Eight GAME OF THE YEAR.
agent says ITS HIS STRONGEST PICK IN 8 YEARS.

KANSAS -11

Said to play it straight ATS and LIGHTNING BET. They'll win by 25+
 
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Gold Sheet

MEMPHIS 104 - San Antonio 100—Two go-with situations collide, as
Memphis (22-13 vs. points at home) takes on San Antonio (23-11 vs. the
number on the road). San Antonio took a blow with ankle injury to Tim Duncan,
but Gregg Popovich’s crew managed to cover first game without him at Denver.
Memphis has been one of the few teams that has compiled a solid winning mark
as a small home favorite; the Grizzlies are 7-3 laying fewer than 4 points at the
FedEx Forum, while the rest of the league is just 82-110 in that category.
Memphis has covered last 4 against the Spurs, including a 16-point win here on
March 1. Griz F Zach Randolph scored 23 ppg & grabbed 16 rpg in first 3
meetings, although he shot just 39.7% against the Spurs. Without Duncan,
Randolph figures to get some easier looks at the basket this time around. San
Antonio an ordinary 3-4 SU in last 7 road games prior to visiting Portland on
Friday, so can’t be too intimidated by Spurs, but wouldn’t lay any more than 4
points. 10-SAN -11 112-106 (OT-197), SAN -9 95-88 (198), MEM -1' 109-93
(193); 09-MEM -1' 92-86 (200), SAN -5 104-97 (200), San +1 102-92 (198),
Mem +10' 107-99 (200)

★★★Houston 95 - MIAMI 93—Streaky Miami has downshifted again,
dropping 3 of last 4 against the number after brief 3-0 spread run. Heat playing
to level of competition and generally doing just enough to win, as Erik
Spoelstra’s bunch is just 3-9 vs. the number last 12 as a favorite and 13-22 as
AmericanAirlines Arena chalk before hosting the Sixers Friday. Hard-trying
Houston is 7-1-1 against the number last 9 as an underdog and is attempting to
run down Memphis for final playoff spot. Miami’s triumvirate of LeBron James,
Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh getting little help from teammates, and PG Mike
Bibby contributed just 5 points while committing 5 fouls in his first start in place
of injured Mario Chalmers, as the Heat were outscored by 13 pts. in Bibby’s 26
minutes against Detroit on Wednesday. Rockets need to do a better job
defending Wade this time around, however, as the Heat all-star scored 45
points in first meeting. Houston almost covered that game, as Luis Scola
missed a “meaningless” shot with 5 seconds left that would’ve gotten Rocket
backers the money. 10-Mia -5 125-119 (198); 09-Mia +4' 115-106 (195), MIA -
5' 99-66 (192)

Atlanta 96 - CLEVELAND 91—Atlanta has posted a pair of double-digit
wins against Cleveland already this season, but both of those games were
played before Christmas. The Cavs are 15-12-1 against the number in last 28
after their 13-28-1 pointspread record in the first half of the season, and Byron
Scott’s rag-tag bunch isn’t getting blown out as often these days. Conversely,
Atlanta has gone in a negative direction, logging a 13-20 spread mark in last 33
games. The Hawks have been outscored by 8 ppg in their last 10, as a power
shortage has crippled HC Larry Drew’s offense. Atlanta has been held to 91 pts.
or fewer in 10 of last 14 games, and Hawks have failed to score more than 100
points in 19 of last 22 through March 25. "Totals" note: Cleveland 8-1 “under”
last 9 through March 24, while Atlanta “under” 8-1 last 10 on the road. 10-Atl -
3 100-88 (190), ATL -9' 98-84 (191); 09-Cle +2' 95-84 (194), CLE -5' 106-101
(193), CLE -5' 93-88 (196), ATL -5 99-83 (195)

Boston 100 - MINNESOTA 85—Dig out your old Garnett jerseys from the
closet Timberwolf fans, K.G. is in the house. Kevin Garnett is good to go, but
the same can’t be said for the league’s leading rebounder, Minny’s Kevin Love
(15.4 rpg; could miss the rest of the season due to a groin injury). It was Love’s
24 rebounds that kept the first meeting between these two close, as the
Timberwolves actually held an 8-point lead with 6½ minutes to play. “Big Baby”
Davis, who collected only 1 rebound in first game vs. Minny, has been pulling
down 8 per game coming off the bench in March. Boston holds foes to a leaguelow
90.9 ppg, while the Timberwolves allow a league-high 107. The Celtics are
a game behind Chicago for the best record in the East, after the Bulls took
advantage of a mediocre 5-5 SU run by the Celtics to catch and then pass Doc
Rivers’ crew in the standings. Anticipate a Celtic win, and given Minnesota’s 8-
14 spread mark as a home dog, Boston likely to get the cover as well. "Totals"
note: Boston is on an 8-0 “under” run thru March 24 and has gone “under” in 6
straight road games. 10-BOS -8 96-93 (203); 09-Bos -12 92-90 (186), BOS -14
122-104 (196)

OKLAHOMA CITY 93 - Portland 92—Not much Ok City margin for error in
previous meetings vs. Portland, narrow 1 and 2-point Thunder wins. Teams
haven’t met since early November, however, and Blazers have a different look
nowadays with Gerald Wallace in the fold. (“I think I’ve found a comfort zone
playing with the guys,” said Wallace after his Portland-best 28-point effort
March 22 vs. Wizards.) NBA observers indicating that Wallace has proven a
quick study alongside post weapon LaMarcus Aldridge, as the Blazer attack
works better “inside out” with Wallace and Nicolas Batum playing off Aldridge,
allowing for proper spacing on attack end. Nate McMillan’s bunch might need
an extra spark to deal with the recent Ok City defensive lockdown that’s seen
the Thunder allow just 87.7 ppg its last 7 thru March 24, with “unders” in all of
those outings as well. But with five straight covers entering last Friday’s game
vs. Spurs and all hands apparently on deck (Marcus Camby expected back from
recent ankle problems), any points surging Portland receives are hard to ignore.
10-Okc +5' 107-106 (OT-194), OKC -2' 110-108 (194); 09-Por -3 83-74 (186),
Okc -1 89-77 (191), Por +4 92-87 (190), POR -2 103-95 (186) CABLE TV—
ESPN

GOLDEN ST. 106 - Washington 95—Tickets probably aren’t going to be
too hard to find for this Sunday night non-thriller in Oakland, although the
depressed Golden State fan base might relish the opportunity to see the
Warriors take out their frustrations on somebody. And the woeful Wizards
would appear to be a good candidate, as their dismal road fortunes continue
(just one SU win all season, and that came at Cleveland, and 10-23 vs. line away
thru March 24) as the likelihood grows that Washington will match the 1990-91
Kings’ 1-40 road mark as the NBA’s all-time worst. The occasional green
shoots of hope occasionally spring from the Wizards, however, as the young
core of John Wall, JaVale McGee, and Jordan Crawford combined for 79 points
in last Wednesday’s OT loss at the Clippers. But as extended 5-game lateseason
road trip winds to a conclusion, not sure we can expect much from
Wizards, still likely without Andray Blatche (shoulder) and Rashard Lewis
(knee) out for the season. Expect better effort at Oracle Arena from Golden
State star G Monta Ellis, who struggled (only 15.3 ppg and 38.5% FG shooting)
on recent road trip during which Warriors lost four straight by a whopping 18.3
ppg margin. 10-Gs -1 106-102 (212); 09-Was +3 118-109 (222), WAS +2' 112-
 

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