VR’s Morning Moves - Sunday, February 28, 2010
Report Status: SUNDAY FEB 28th, 2010
Next Report: BY 12:00pm est on MON 3-1-10
Notes:
“MORNING MOVES” NEWSLETTER & LINE-PREDICTION for SUNDAY FEB 28th, 2010
HANDICAPPING : PART 2 on BETTING %…”WAYS TO USE THEM”
Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen…For Subscribers, we SWEPT our 3* BOMBS on Saturday…But even though the Betting Syndicates ended up “steaming” my CBB “Morning Moves” 2* PERSONAL PLAY, well after we bet it…Oklahoma just couldn’t hold on…So we are now “15-10” (60% ATS) Overall…"7-4" (64%) on PERSONAL PLAYS...
And as much as I always strive for better and work as hard as possible to be able to do so…I’ve been doing this long enough to know that if we are able to maintain a Winning % right around where we are after about a month of “Morning Moves”…then this will be an extremely profitable program for you guys…But with that said, it will be profitable as long as you continue to employ all of the “Money Management” concepts that we’ve already covered…and the many more that we will cover in the future…
Now let’s move on to today’s topic…It’s PART 2 on BETTING %….
Yesterday, we tried to define exactly what they are, and the kind of information that they represent…Along with the importance of information gathering and interpreting…Today, I’ll pass along some of the ways that you can use these BETTING %’s and incorporate them into your handicapping…
For starters, we all understand that these BETTING %’s represent ONLY the amount of “Tickets Written”…And that the sports books don’t care one bit about that information, which is why they are willing to share it…We also understand that BETTING %’s do not represent actual “Money Bet”…Which is the ONLY factor the sports books care about, and also the main reason that we see line-moves…
The most important factor that Betting %’s play in my daily handicapping…is that they allow me to gauge “Public Perception”…Because when I see a high percentage of “tickets” written on one side, when compared to the opponent…then I know that the price the books have set is enticing the bettors to wager on a particular side or total…Now keep in mind that on many occasions, the sports books don’t know which way the bettors will wager until they offer a price…This is why we see line-moves that aren’t related to “steam” on many match-ups each day…
Now since I’ve already created my own “Fair Line” & “True Line (covered on previous Newsletter)…I can then use these Betting %’s to try and help me determine how accurate I am, based on a comparison of my own lines, to those being offered…And by seeing the Betting %’s, I can then be more certain which one the books are using, and ultimately determine if there is “line-value”…This is a pretty complex concept and we may need to cover it on it’s own Newsletter if you guys want…
Next, for those who do not have a strong source of information to inform you of “True Steam”…or even when a position is taken by the Betting Syndicates…you can use these Betting %’s to try and uncover them by comparing the “market reaction” (Line-Adjustment) to the Betting %’s…to see if the move makes sense…Otherwise, you may be looking at a “reverse line-movement” which is another excellent way to uncover value in the market, as well as “steam“…without needing an official “steam” source…
The one thing that I will add is this…and it’s very important…Besides reading the Betting %’s…you also need to take a close look at the “Amount of Wagers” on the match-up…Especially when you are attempting to determine where the “Actual Money” is for a game…Because there is a huge difference between a line-move on a game that is getting very little volume, and a line move on a game that is getting a lot of volume…And the market reaction for each, will also tell us a lot about who or what is behind the adjustment made by the books…
Now that almost all of these sports books adjust on “air” (covered in previous Newsletter)…it is so much easier to assess this information because the line-move will be almost always made…all across the board…Unlike in the past, when you were able to determine which books are taking action for certain Betting Syndicates…And you could then determine which one’s where hot or cold, and use that information to your advantage…So now we will have no doubt that an adjustment is “real”…and not simply based on what may be happening at one particular book…Instead, it becomes a “market reaction” for everyone…Unlike what we see with many “prop bets”, which seem to differ in price from shop to shop…
Finally, if you are using the Betting %’s to try and determine where the “money is”, even though we know that this is not what they are actually telling us…Then at the very least, make sure that you focus mostly on those match-ups that have a lot of “volume”…Because you can at least be sure that there is definitely some significant money on a certain side…As opposed to when there is light volume…
Because when there is light volume, even if the Betting % is extremely 1-Sided, it don’t represent too much money…Therefore, any line-move becomes significant on these match-ups…But for a different reason…And this reason is that we can be much surer the adjustment was forced by some very “sharp” money…Which means that it’s usually “steam”…
These are some of the main factors that I consider and use these Betting %’s for…And I urge you to please go into the Forum Thread that I created at
http://pregameforums.com and let me know if you would like me to make this a 3 Part Newsletter…Because I will check again tonight and in the morning, to see if there is more you would like covered on Betting %’s before moving on…And also, to answer any questions that you may have on this topic in the Newsletter for others to also see…
I want to really make sure that these concepts are making sense…and that you are learning new ways and new approaches to implement to your work…Because I can get much deeper with almost every concept we cover…But because right now, it’s about helping you build a strong foundation…so that when we move into the more difficult details on these concepts…that you already have a good understanding…
Because more than anything else…I want this Newsletter to be a useful tool for YOU…And I want to make sure that each day, you are learning just a little more than you knew the day before…I know we can’t cover everything in one day, or one Newsletter…But because we publish one daily, we can cover a lot in a limited amount of time…
Thanks again for all your support…and best of luck, Vegas-Runner\
LINE-PREDICTION :
1.) 814 SACRAMENTO -3
I’ve already seen a couple of the Ourfits lay -1.5 on the 1st Half…which forced an adjustment on the Vig, and even the number…This is usually a sign that they will next move on the entire game…And with the betting public expected to come in on the Kings also…this will allow the Betting Syndicates to get in front of the market, even if it’s not a “True Position”…Therefore, going UP is the only way that this line should move…VR
2.) 845-846 UNDER 159 WEB ST/PORT ST
The Wiseguys let the books know that this total was sent out too high, because they immediately bet UNDER 160...This forced the adjustment but from what I’ve heard…they aren’t don’t just yet and word is, they are simply waiting for more “outs” to offer a Total, before they “steam” the Under again…Because this game shouldn’t get much public money…And since I feel any public money bet on this total will also be on the Under…I believe we will see the books forced to adjust down-wards if and when the Outfits “steam” the Under…And the only way this one moves against us, is if the Betting Syndicates go the other way…and this was simply a case of mis-direction to manipulate the market…But I have not heard any such thing as of early this morning…VR
Sun, 02/28/10 - 1:00 PM VR's Morning Moves | NBA Sides
double-dime bet 802 SAN -4.0 (-110) SportBet vs 801 PHO
Analysis:
** NBA 2* "MORNING MOVES" PERSONAL PLAY **
We are getting some "line-value" based on the fact this is a Prime-Time Televised Match-Up...and the Suns have been a covering machine over their L/10...But the bottom line is this number is just way too low for the Spurs to be laying at home...They've beaten the Suns 7 of the L/10 times they've met, and would have covered this (-4) number in 4 of the 5 times they've played them at home...My "True Line shows that we are getting the best of it...so let's go ahead and make this our 2* for Sunday, to go along with the College 2* for today's Morning Moves...VR
> See VR's Morning Moves's homepage
Sun, 02/28/10 - 1:00 PM VR's Morning Moves | CBB Sides
double-dime bet 822 Xavier, Ohio -7.0 (-110) Bodog vs 821 Richmond
Analysis:
** CBB MORNING MOVES 2* TRUE STEAM **
The Betting Syndicates jumped on XAVIER as soon as the books offered a line...And according to my own "True Line", they definitely did the right thing...Because this is a case where the books have sent out a "Fair Line" to try and attract split money, and with the perception on Richmond, I believe they will accomplish it...But that offers us a great betting opportunity and a chance to take advantage of the Value, along with the Wiseguys...on Xavier at Home...VR
