Craig Davis
Sunday's Lineup
40 Dime – CONNECTICUT
UCONN --- Why wouldn't I be backing one of the hottest teams in the Big East right now, especially at home? Since I watched them dismantle Villanova in Philadelphia a few weeks ago, I've seen them finally become the team many thought they would be in the pre-season. They've starting to play as a unit, both offensively and defensively. After their 12-point home loss to Cincy a few weeks back, this team had a player's-only meeting and challenged each other to be accountable for their actions, and to play as if every game was potentially their last. If they continued on the pace they were on, they had no shot at the post-season Big Dance. Since that game they torched Villanova at 'Nova, pummeled Rutgers, and beat a very good West Virginia team fairly soundly.
Today they welcome a Louisville Cardinals team that just beat them by 13 at the beginning of this month. But keep something in mind... Louisville was playing its best basketball back then while UConn was in the midst of its worst basketball of the season. FFWD 27 days to today, and we have two teams that appear to be headed in different directions. No disrespect to Louisville, but they clearly aren't the same team many thought they'd be back in December. They have talent, no doubt, but talent doesn't always equated into the type of season some might predict.. and that's clearly the case with the Cardinals. UConn, on the other hand, is playing its best stretch of basketball at the most opportune time, and getting Louisville at home is just what the doctor ordered.
The one concern most teams have when facing Louisville is the full-court pressure, but if there's a better tandem of guards fit to handle that pressure right now than Kemba Walker and Jerome Dyson, I'd like to know who they are. Walker and Dyson are a dangerous 1-2 tandem who scored 38 combined points in their last win over West Virginia. They aren't turning the ball over nearly as much and I've actually seen both of these guards play better on the defensive end of the floor.
UConn is still playing for their tournament lives, and getting a revenge-type atmosphere at home where they know they need a win, my money is clearly on the Huskies in this one. Connecticut is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU win, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a SU winning record, 10-3 ATS in their last 13 vs. a team with a winning % above .600 and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 following an ATS win. The Huskies shoot free throws better and better with each game, and if this comes down a FT shooting contest at the end of the game, I'm happy to back the home team. UConn by at least 7.