Mike Hook | NBA Sides Sun, 02/21/10 - 10:35 PM ƒŠ
double-dime bet 818 POR 0.0 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 817 UTA
Analysis:
The value today is in the NBA. I like this game quite a bit, as i think it's the best VALUE on the entire card. I'll add to my writeup in just a bit, but i want to get this play out there as the line is in the midst of moving. I wouldn't worry too much about any line movement in this game until this line hits -2 for either team. Fact is, any movement prior to that is likely sharps trying to get both sides as the dog.
A few reasons why i like Portland here:
1. TRIPLE REVENGE-Utah has already beaten Portland the 3 times they've played each other.
2. PORTLAND coming off a HUGE dissapointment of a game against the Celtics. Remember that line and how they were favored over the Celtics. Now look at the line they opened up against the Jazz as. Clearly, as good as Utah is playing right now, they shouldn't be favored on the road against the Blazers. The Blazers easily had one of their worst nights offensively in quite some time against Boston. Luckily, the Jazz don't play defense like the Celtics do. More importantly, the Blazers learned their lesson. Portland was terrible at finding the open player, and that's why they had such a low number of assists. Portland has plenty of depth, and they will show that tonight. Plus, Brandon Roy had yet another game to get his legs back, and i know he will respond with a better game today.
What i like most about this game is the addition of Marcus Camby. Camby is easily one of the best defenders in the NBA. He's also a rebounding machine, and he will really help Portland out in the middle. Utah has been brilliant at shooting the ball against Portland, but that will change tonight. Camby is one of the best defenders in the game for a reason. Since these teams last met, Portland has added Camby while the Jazz have lost one of their best defenders in Ronnie Brewer. This specific scenario will play a role in the final outcome of the game tonight..
Speaking of tonight, this is the last game› you can bet. I love this angle, especially when fading the public. The public is in love with Utah right now, and rightfully so. They've been brilliant ATS since the start of 2010. However, one must realize you are paying the ULTIMATE PRICE when backing this Jazz team right now. In reality, there is nowhere to go but DOWN ATS for Utah. Never does anything regress more than ATS numbers. Oddsmakers will adjust, and today, i think they've really adjusted. Fact is, this line shouldn't be what it is. This is a PUBLIC DRIVEN LINE, so it's no suprise to see the public on this exact line. Fact is, they couldn't be more wrong. There are strong reasons to back Portland, and we've listed them. We got the right side here, and i'm backing this as my DOUBLE STAR play of the day. I will add more to this writeup in a bit. Portland as a PK is my DOUBLE STAR Play of the Day!