VR`s Morning Moves - Sunday, February 21, 2010
Report Status: SUNDAY FEB 21st, 2010
Next Report: BY 12:00pm est on MON 2-22-10
Notes:
“MORNING MOVES” NEWSLETTER & LINE-PREDICTION for SUNDAY FEB 21st, 2010
MONEY MANAGEMENT : “PREPARE to LOSE…IF YOU EVER WANT to WIN…BY PUTTING A % of BANKROLL in PLAY”
Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen…I’m not one to sugar-coat anything, nor sweep anything under the rug…I’ve been a winning sports bettor because I’m willing to understand that there will be losing days…And because I always am prepared for them, they NEVER are able to do more harm than they should…It’s a part of the racket that most can never overcome, but I promise you that it’s the only way that you will ever beat this market and actually turn a profit betting sports…
Because like any other business, there will be those days where you don’t make any money, but you still have to pay your bills and cover your expenses…And for sports bettors, those bills and expenses are actually days that we trash more tickets than we cash…
Truth is, I actually had written another Newsletter last night, which explained what exactly these “Line-Predictions” that I pass along are for…But after having a losing day yesterday, I felt it was the perfect time to pass along some information that is as valuable to bettors as any “Money Management” or “Handicapping” theory or concept…So I will go ahead and let you know some things about “learning to lose” that were taught to me early on by some very sharp and successful sports bettors…
The bottom line is that we are now “12-7” (63% ATS) Overall on “Morning Moves”…And to be perfectly honest, that is an accomplishment in itself over a 3 week span…But that also means that to win 63% of our 19 wagers, we had to lose 7...And if you don’t go into each and every day of wagering prepared to lose one of those 7...then there is no way that you can ever make money off the other 12 winners…
This all goes back to “Money Management”…And the reason that we have to employ it daily is because losing is a mathematical certainty that most sports bettors just don’t want to face…And even though I go into each and every position that I take, with the mind-set that I am getting the best of it…and should therefore win…in the back of my mind, I understand that having an edge don’t guarantee it…Which is ok, as long as we know that going in…So we can invest our money accordingly…
Now we will discuss more “Money Management” techniques, and we’ve already covered “Flat Betting” & “Adjusting Unit Size”…But even with all those weapons that I will arm you with via this Newsletter…until you come to grips with the fact that we will lose, they won’t be able to help you win money…
This is obviously not the type of message that a “Paid Handicapper” should be sending, because it’s obviously not good for business…Instead, I’m supposed to tell you how great I am and how easy it’s going to be to beat your bookmakers as long as you purchase my selections…Fortunately, I’ve been successful enough in betting into this market for long enough, before ever considering sharing my knowledge and information with others…So I have the luxury of being able to tell it the way it is, not the way you may want to hear it…Which would better my sales…
And I tell it like it is because I respect people who are ambitious and have the kind of drive needed to invest and turn a profit betting into this market…But I can’t help them do this unless I am 100% truthful with them, even at the risk of losing them as clients…Because I really do wish I could tell you different, but I can’t…And until you come to grips with the fact that you are going to lose…I can’t do much for you…
So how do you prepare yourself for losing, so that you can eventually win ??
By wagering correctly so that you give your “edge” the opportunity to do it’s thing…And you put only a fraction of your bankroll into play, each and everyday…Some may disagree with me, but I am a firm believer that to prepare yourself for losing, you should not put more than 15% of your bankroll on average, in play…in any one day…
Now obviously one day you may only put 10% and another, you may put up to 20%…But on average it should be around 15%…and should NEVER exceed 20%…NO MATTER WHAT…Regardless of the amount of wagers that you make…And if you have a lot one day, then you need to take a step back…and wager in a manner that won’t exceed 20% of your Bankroll…And I don’t care how much profit you may have made already for the year…
As long as you make that a RULE for your business when you begin building your strong foundation, and NEVER break it…I promise you that you will be able to overcome any losing that comes with winning…By doing this, you will be able to keep everything in perspective at all times…And more importantly, you will never allow yourself to make ANY bet more significant than you know it should be…
By applying this concept of “Money Management”, to your concept of “Flat Betting” or “Adjusting Units”…you are on your way to making sure you are building your business in a way that gives it the very best chance to succeed…And when you do that, you will be surprised at just how easier it is to actually make it successful…
Because what you are ultimately doing, is lowering your RISK…And giving yourself a “Saftey Net” which allows you to stumble at times, without not being able to get back up…Because unless you can get back up after stumbling, you won’t be able to take advantage of that “edge” that you have…
So always make sure that no matter how strong you feel about any particular day…Or no matter how good or bad you are currently running…That you never break the RULE that I’ve passed along to you today…Which is to try and put an average of 15% or less of your Bankroll in play in any one day…And NEVER exceed 20%…
Finally, to be honest with you…I would love to see you make your RULE for even LESS…Because truth is, I don’t think that I myself am putting any more than 5% of my Bankroll into play in any one day….And for the fund that I manage, which we try to follow the RULES kept by the Betting Syndicates…we put even LESS in play…
But I know that many of you don’t have the kind of bankroll that would make doing this worth your time…Because if you have a $1,000 BR…I know it’s difficult to ask you to only put $50 or less in play each day to limit exposure…So I won’t do that…But I will urge you to follow the guidelines that I’ve laid out for you in this Newsletter…And doing so will have you limiting your exposure, and more importantly…allow you to profit when your “edge” does it’s thing over time…So please, don’t make any bet or any day more significant than it really should be…For the overall well being of you and your business…
Thanks again for all your support…and best of luck, Vegas-Runner.
LINE PREDICTION :
1.) 809/810 OVER 200.5 HOU/N ORL
As soon as this Total was offered, we saw one of the Outfits step up and force the adjustment up a ½ point…And word is that we may see more take that same position this morning…Now the books I spoke with also expect the betting public to come in on the same OVER…which would force a definite adjustment, to try and limit their liability…But I have not confirmed if this buy-order does go out, whether it is a True Position, or simply a case of the Betting Syndicates trying to get ahead of the market…VR
Sun, 02/21/10 - 1:00 PM VR's Morning Moves | NBA Sides
double-dime bet 802 ORL -1.5 (-110) Bodog vs 801 CLE
Analysis:
** MORNING MOVES 2* NBA on ABC PERSONAL PLAY **
So let's go ahead and back the Magic here
