David Malinsky
- 94.4 Units NBA YTD
- 29.7 Units CBB YTD
January 2010 Minus 98.4 Units
February 2010 Plus 33.3 Units
Totals 48% all Sports past 5 years
4* #805 DENVER/BOSTON Under
No one plays better tactical defense than the Celtics. They are #1 by a pretty wide margin right now on our best set of ratings, allowing nearly one full point less per 100 possessions than any other team. Yet they went into the All Star break feeling that they were under-performing on that end of the court. It has led to some tactical changes, and in allowing only 84.8 points per game on 37.7 percent shooting in three games since the All Star break, the pieces are fitting together seamlessly again. So on a day in which they want to go out of their way to slow the tempo as well, that defensive resurgence helps to bring us great value for this one.Let’s let the Celtics set the tone themselves. First, from Doc Rivers - <i>“We fought all first half trying to guard the ball. Well, we don’t do that very well and that’s been proven through the year. So, the next step, if you don’t guard the ball well, the next guy has to be there every time a guy’s beat.’’</i> On to Rajon Rondo - <i>“I think we’re a better help team now. We’re conscious of it. Doc has been drilling it night in, night out, telling us we have to be a better help team. And on the ball defensively, we just have to take a stand.’’</i> And Kevin Garnett - <i>“The key to us has been the communication. It hasn’t been this constant. It hasn’t been this loud … I can definitely say it’s been different from January, December, November.’’</i>Now on to today’s matchup. Neither team shows up as the pinnacle of freshness, with Boston in the fourth road game in six days since the All Star break, and Denver only getting one day to turn around after that draining trip through Cleveland and Washington, games in which the starters had to toil a combined 365 minutes. That leaves the Nuggets hard pressed to force their preferred pace, which allows the Celtics to get this into a half-court tempo from the start. The game then becomes a grinder of an affair that looks much different from the flow that the oddsmakers have projected, with easy scoring opportunities not easy to come by
4* #819 VILLANOVA over PITTSBURGH
Once again Jamie Dixon and Pittsburgh have been awfully good for our
pockets in a Big East road underdog role this season ? the grit that
they play with in that role has now taken the count to 21-10 ATS in
the Dixon years. But now the setting shifts, and so does our call. A
team that is accustomed to taking what the opponents give them,
capitalizing on mistakes and using their physical and mental
toughness to grind out victories, now faces their worst matchup of
the season.
The Panthers have good talent, not great talent. As such, they need
to be able to find weaknesses that can be exploited. Villanova brings
none. The Wildcats are athletic, experienced, deep and talented,
while also bringing a special balance to the table. They are shooting
49.0 percent from the field in Big East play, a special number
against that level of competition; winning the battle of the boards
by +6.3 in league play; and also knocking down 75.4 percent of their
free throws. And they do not let up, with 10 players going at least
11 minutes per game, and no one needing to go 30. It starts with
Scottie Reynolds running the show, and in the savvy of Jay Wright on
the sidelines, and Wright on the court, a remarkable achievement can
be earned today ? a victory would give them a win on <i>every</i>
opposing Big East court in the Reynolds career. The fact that they
have not won here yet is not an indictment; there has only been on
trip to Pittsburgh in those 3+ seasons, but having handled the
Panthers by 10 at home LY, and then winning that NCAA tournament
thriller, they know that they can beat this opponent.
The biggest Pittsburgh strength is a physical half-court defense that
can frustrate many opponents into taking bad shots. The Panthers do
no extend, forcing only 129 turnovers in 13 Big East games, but
rather rely on protecting the basket. But if you do not force
turnovers, Villanova is not going to make many through that savvy
ball-handling. That makes this an entirely different matchup for
Dixon and his team, and now it is the struggles that their own
offense can have against pressing defenses that causes additional
game flow issues.
4* #827 SAINT LOUIS over MASSACHUSETTS
Earlier this week we cashed a 6* ticket with Rick Majerus and his
Billikens in a game in which they absolutely should not have been
home underdogs vs. Rhode Island. We receive that outstanding value
because the marketplace just does not ?get it? in terms of how well
Saint Louis is playing ? when you are grinding away with outstanding
fundamentals and defense, it just does not bring a lot of sex appeal.
And that is why we are offered excellent value again, as a team that
is 8-3 and fighting for the Atlantic 10 regular-season crown goes up
against a struggling and inexperienced side that just does not match
up well. Count us in again.
Through 11 conference games, only once has Saint Louis being trailing
on the scoreboard at the end of regulation play, with two of those
losses coming on the road in Overtime. It is a tribute to the
tenacious defense that the Billikens are playing, allowing just 40.1
percent shooting from the field and 25.3 from long range in A10 play,
and their solid fundamentals show in that there have only been 118
assists allowed in 470 floor minutes (there have been a total of six
O.T. periods), compared to 159 turnovers. Kwamain Mitchell is
becoming a prime go-to scorer down the stretch of close games, and
with Cody Ellis becoming a reliable #2 the confidence is there to
make things happen when needed most.
Massachusetts brings no such confidence. The Minutemen will be
starting three FR and a SO this afternoon, and that makes for most
awkward tactical matchups for a team that lacks the patience and
experience to break down this class of defense. What success they
have had has come from athleticism (they lead the A10 in offensive
rebounds), and not polish, and the rotation is further muddle by the
injury to David Gibbs, and the suspension of Javorn Fornell for this
game. They do not run their offense well (40.4 percent), and do not
pressure the ball defensively (A10 opponents are +43 in assists to
TO?s), which plays right into the hands of the Billikens here. Look
for Saint Louis to be able to force that slow and methodical pace in
this one, and to grind away an impatient opponent that will be
frustrated by those tactics.
4* #836 MICHIGAN STATE/OHIO STATE Over
Michigan State and Ohio State are near the top of the Big 10, and
like others fighting it out for the top spot they both play
outstanding defense. But there is a difference. These two are quicker
than the rest, prefer to run more, and also shoot the ball better. It
just does not get a chance to show much when games turn into
wrestling matches. But it can show now that the court opens up here
as they go head-to-head.
The scoring averages of both of these teams are not in the right
place because of the way that Big 10 games flow ? competitors at the
top like Wisconsin, Purdue and Illinois play with passion on defense
and methodically on offense, while the bottom feeders like Penn State
and Iowa go out of their way to slow things down. So when do you get
a chance to run? Check the non-conference competition. Ohio State has
played four games outside of the league vs. class opponents, North
Carolina, California, Florida State, Butler and West Virginia, and
those five games played Over at a 4-1 clip. Michigan State stepped
out against North Carolina, Texas, Florida and Gonzaga, and those
four games played 3-1 to the Over.
By having this game pushed back to Sunday, both teams come in fresh,
with the Buckeyes off since Wednesday and the Spartans off since
Tuesday. That means the kind of energy to attack aggressively, and
also the fresh legs to make jump shots. That helps this one to easily
sail past the low Total that has been set, a Total based more on how
the Big 10 as a whole plays than how these two will get after each
other.
- 94.4 Units NBA YTD
- 29.7 Units CBB YTD
January 2010 Minus 98.4 Units
February 2010 Plus 33.3 Units
Totals 48% all Sports past 5 years
4* #805 DENVER/BOSTON Under
No one plays better tactical defense than the Celtics. They are #1 by a pretty wide margin right now on our best set of ratings, allowing nearly one full point less per 100 possessions than any other team. Yet they went into the All Star break feeling that they were under-performing on that end of the court. It has led to some tactical changes, and in allowing only 84.8 points per game on 37.7 percent shooting in three games since the All Star break, the pieces are fitting together seamlessly again. So on a day in which they want to go out of their way to slow the tempo as well, that defensive resurgence helps to bring us great value for this one.Let’s let the Celtics set the tone themselves. First, from Doc Rivers - <i>“We fought all first half trying to guard the ball. Well, we don’t do that very well and that’s been proven through the year. So, the next step, if you don’t guard the ball well, the next guy has to be there every time a guy’s beat.’’</i> On to Rajon Rondo - <i>“I think we’re a better help team now. We’re conscious of it. Doc has been drilling it night in, night out, telling us we have to be a better help team. And on the ball defensively, we just have to take a stand.’’</i> And Kevin Garnett - <i>“The key to us has been the communication. It hasn’t been this constant. It hasn’t been this loud … I can definitely say it’s been different from January, December, November.’’</i>Now on to today’s matchup. Neither team shows up as the pinnacle of freshness, with Boston in the fourth road game in six days since the All Star break, and Denver only getting one day to turn around after that draining trip through Cleveland and Washington, games in which the starters had to toil a combined 365 minutes. That leaves the Nuggets hard pressed to force their preferred pace, which allows the Celtics to get this into a half-court tempo from the start. The game then becomes a grinder of an affair that looks much different from the flow that the oddsmakers have projected, with easy scoring opportunities not easy to come by
4* #819 VILLANOVA over PITTSBURGH
Once again Jamie Dixon and Pittsburgh have been awfully good for our
pockets in a Big East road underdog role this season ? the grit that
they play with in that role has now taken the count to 21-10 ATS in
the Dixon years. But now the setting shifts, and so does our call. A
team that is accustomed to taking what the opponents give them,
capitalizing on mistakes and using their physical and mental
toughness to grind out victories, now faces their worst matchup of
the season.
The Panthers have good talent, not great talent. As such, they need
to be able to find weaknesses that can be exploited. Villanova brings
none. The Wildcats are athletic, experienced, deep and talented,
while also bringing a special balance to the table. They are shooting
49.0 percent from the field in Big East play, a special number
against that level of competition; winning the battle of the boards
by +6.3 in league play; and also knocking down 75.4 percent of their
free throws. And they do not let up, with 10 players going at least
11 minutes per game, and no one needing to go 30. It starts with
Scottie Reynolds running the show, and in the savvy of Jay Wright on
the sidelines, and Wright on the court, a remarkable achievement can
be earned today ? a victory would give them a win on <i>every</i>
opposing Big East court in the Reynolds career. The fact that they
have not won here yet is not an indictment; there has only been on
trip to Pittsburgh in those 3+ seasons, but having handled the
Panthers by 10 at home LY, and then winning that NCAA tournament
thriller, they know that they can beat this opponent.
The biggest Pittsburgh strength is a physical half-court defense that
can frustrate many opponents into taking bad shots. The Panthers do
no extend, forcing only 129 turnovers in 13 Big East games, but
rather rely on protecting the basket. But if you do not force
turnovers, Villanova is not going to make many through that savvy
ball-handling. That makes this an entirely different matchup for
Dixon and his team, and now it is the struggles that their own
offense can have against pressing defenses that causes additional
game flow issues.
4* #827 SAINT LOUIS over MASSACHUSETTS
Earlier this week we cashed a 6* ticket with Rick Majerus and his
Billikens in a game in which they absolutely should not have been
home underdogs vs. Rhode Island. We receive that outstanding value
because the marketplace just does not ?get it? in terms of how well
Saint Louis is playing ? when you are grinding away with outstanding
fundamentals and defense, it just does not bring a lot of sex appeal.
And that is why we are offered excellent value again, as a team that
is 8-3 and fighting for the Atlantic 10 regular-season crown goes up
against a struggling and inexperienced side that just does not match
up well. Count us in again.
Through 11 conference games, only once has Saint Louis being trailing
on the scoreboard at the end of regulation play, with two of those
losses coming on the road in Overtime. It is a tribute to the
tenacious defense that the Billikens are playing, allowing just 40.1
percent shooting from the field and 25.3 from long range in A10 play,
and their solid fundamentals show in that there have only been 118
assists allowed in 470 floor minutes (there have been a total of six
O.T. periods), compared to 159 turnovers. Kwamain Mitchell is
becoming a prime go-to scorer down the stretch of close games, and
with Cody Ellis becoming a reliable #2 the confidence is there to
make things happen when needed most.
Massachusetts brings no such confidence. The Minutemen will be
starting three FR and a SO this afternoon, and that makes for most
awkward tactical matchups for a team that lacks the patience and
experience to break down this class of defense. What success they
have had has come from athleticism (they lead the A10 in offensive
rebounds), and not polish, and the rotation is further muddle by the
injury to David Gibbs, and the suspension of Javorn Fornell for this
game. They do not run their offense well (40.4 percent), and do not
pressure the ball defensively (A10 opponents are +43 in assists to
TO?s), which plays right into the hands of the Billikens here. Look
for Saint Louis to be able to force that slow and methodical pace in
this one, and to grind away an impatient opponent that will be
frustrated by those tactics.
4* #836 MICHIGAN STATE/OHIO STATE Over
Michigan State and Ohio State are near the top of the Big 10, and
like others fighting it out for the top spot they both play
outstanding defense. But there is a difference. These two are quicker
than the rest, prefer to run more, and also shoot the ball better. It
just does not get a chance to show much when games turn into
wrestling matches. But it can show now that the court opens up here
as they go head-to-head.
The scoring averages of both of these teams are not in the right
place because of the way that Big 10 games flow ? competitors at the
top like Wisconsin, Purdue and Illinois play with passion on defense
and methodically on offense, while the bottom feeders like Penn State
and Iowa go out of their way to slow things down. So when do you get
a chance to run? Check the non-conference competition. Ohio State has
played four games outside of the league vs. class opponents, North
Carolina, California, Florida State, Butler and West Virginia, and
those five games played Over at a 4-1 clip. Michigan State stepped
out against North Carolina, Texas, Florida and Gonzaga, and those
four games played 3-1 to the Over.
By having this game pushed back to Sunday, both teams come in fresh,
with the Buckeyes off since Wednesday and the Spartans off since
Tuesday. That means the kind of energy to attack aggressively, and
also the fresh legs to make jump shots. That helps this one to easily
sail past the low Total that has been set, a Total based more on how
the Big 10 as a whole plays than how these two will get after each
other.
Dwayne Bryant
Bet: #831 Arizona State -2
We have a same-season revenge situation and a state rivalry game all rolled into one today in Tucson. Four weeks ago, Arizona State was hosting the Wildcats as 11-point favorites. Arizona dominated the heavily favored Sun Devils in the second half and rolled to a huge 19-point upset win. I'd say that qualifies as an embarrassing loss for the Sun Devils and having that humiliation come at the hands of their state rival only adds salt to the wound. Think ASU will bring a ton of motivation, intensity, and determination today? I sure do.
Looking at that meeting last month, Arizona outshot ASU 51% to 30% from the floor. Not only is that well above the Wildcats' season average of 43.7%, but it's also WAY below ASU's season average of 45.6%. The other thing that stands out to me is the free throw shooting from that game. ASU shot just 59% from the charity stripe (missed 12 of 29 attempts), which is WAY below their season average of 72%. Arizona shot 86% from the free throw line (missed only 4 of 28 attempts), which is well above their season average of 74%.
I expect a return to the norm for both teams in regards to shooting percentages and free throw percentages. ASU had won five straight in this series before that shocking home blowout loss last month. I expect the Sun Devils to return the favor today against their bitter rival and embarrass the Wildcats in front of their home fans. Take Arizona State.
Bet: #831 Arizona State -2
We have a same-season revenge situation and a state rivalry game all rolled into one today in Tucson. Four weeks ago, Arizona State was hosting the Wildcats as 11-point favorites. Arizona dominated the heavily favored Sun Devils in the second half and rolled to a huge 19-point upset win. I'd say that qualifies as an embarrassing loss for the Sun Devils and having that humiliation come at the hands of their state rival only adds salt to the wound. Think ASU will bring a ton of motivation, intensity, and determination today? I sure do.
Looking at that meeting last month, Arizona outshot ASU 51% to 30% from the floor. Not only is that well above the Wildcats' season average of 43.7%, but it's also WAY below ASU's season average of 45.6%. The other thing that stands out to me is the free throw shooting from that game. ASU shot just 59% from the charity stripe (missed 12 of 29 attempts), which is WAY below their season average of 72%. Arizona shot 86% from the free throw line (missed only 4 of 28 attempts), which is well above their season average of 74%.
I expect a return to the norm for both teams in regards to shooting percentages and free throw percentages. ASU had won five straight in this series before that shocking home blowout loss last month. I expect the Sun Devils to return the favor today against their bitter rival and embarrass the Wildcats in front of their home fans. Take Arizona State.
FantasySportsGametime.com
Sunday Basketball
NBA Basketball
1000* Play Orlando (-2) over Cleveland (NBA TOP PLAY)
Game starts at 1:00 PM EST
Orlando has won and covered the spread in 4 consecutive home games when the total posted is between 195 and 199.5 points and they have also won 21 of the last 27 home games as a favorite. Orlando has won 5 of the last 6 games when playing on a Sunday and they are averaging over 107 points a game on offense over the last 5 games.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NCAA Basketball
50* Play Villanova (-2) over Pittsburgh (NCAA BONUS PLAY)
Game starts at 12:00 PM EST
Villanova has won 9 consecutive games when the total posted is between 140 and 149.5 points and they have also won 9 of the last 10 games when playing their 2nd game in eight days. Villanova has won 14 of the last 15 games coming off an OVER the total and they are averaging over 85 points a game on offense this season.
Sunday Basketball
NBA Basketball
1000* Play Orlando (-2) over Cleveland (NBA TOP PLAY)
Game starts at 1:00 PM EST
Orlando has won and covered the spread in 4 consecutive home games when the total posted is between 195 and 199.5 points and they have also won 21 of the last 27 home games as a favorite. Orlando has won 5 of the last 6 games when playing on a Sunday and they are averaging over 107 points a game on offense over the last 5 games.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NCAA Basketball
50* Play Villanova (-2) over Pittsburgh (NCAA BONUS PLAY)
Game starts at 12:00 PM EST
Villanova has won 9 consecutive games when the total posted is between 140 and 149.5 points and they have also won 9 of the last 10 games when playing their 2nd game in eight days. Villanova has won 14 of the last 15 games coming off an OVER the total and they are averaging over 85 points a game on offense this season.
I THINK PORTLAND WAS THEIR FREE PICK
GOFOR2 <script type="text/javascript"> vbmenu_register("postmenu_7634710", true); </script>
RX Member
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: PNC PARK
Posts: 795
<!-- icon and title -->
<hr style="color: rgb(253, 222, 130); background-color: rgb(253, 222, 130);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> Quote:
<table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="6" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td class="alt2" style="border: 1px inset ;"> Originally Posted by Can'tPickaWinner
KSL
Magic -2
Portland pk
Ohio St + 4
Pitt +2.5
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
CPAW, do you know which game is their free pick? They don't grade their free picks!
GOFOR2 <script type="text/javascript"> vbmenu_register("postmenu_7634710", true); </script>
RX Member
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: PNC PARK
Posts: 795
<!-- icon and title -->
<hr style="color: rgb(253, 222, 130); background-color: rgb(253, 222, 130);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> Quote:
<table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="6" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td class="alt2" style="border: 1px inset ;"> Originally Posted by Can'tPickaWinner
KSL
Magic -2
Portland pk
Ohio St + 4
Pitt +2.5
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
CPAW, do you know which game is their free pick? They don't grade their free picks!
Ferringo late post
2-Unit Play. Take #819 Villanova (-2.5) over Pittsburgh (Noon, Sunday, Feb. 21)
0.5-Unit Play. Take #821 Dayton (-4.5) over Duquesne (1 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 21)
0.5-Unit Play. Take #832 Arizona (+1) over Arizona State (5:30 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 21)
0.5-Unit Play. Take #834 Duke (-12.5) over Virginia Tech (7:45 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 21)
2-Unit Play. Take #819 Villanova (-2.5) over Pittsburgh (Noon, Sunday, Feb. 21)
0.5-Unit Play. Take #821 Dayton (-4.5) over Duquesne (1 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 21)
0.5-Unit Play. Take #832 Arizona (+1) over Arizona State (5:30 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 21)
0.5-Unit Play. Take #834 Duke (-12.5) over Virginia Tech (7:45 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 21)
