Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Illinois/ Michigan Under 119: Gotta really like the under in this one with two team that can play some defense and don't like to push the ball. Michigan Conference games have averaged 121.8 ppg, but their conference home games have been a bit lower at 115.3 ppg (regulation only). The last 5 in this series has been very low scoring as they have averaged just 108.6 ppg, with none of the games posting more than 117 points. Illinois has played a couple of faced paced teams of late and in those 2 games they allowed 79 ppg, but this is still a team that can play good defense as they allowed just 58.6 ppg (regulation only) in their previous 7 games. Illinois has put up 70 ppg in their last 2 games, but in the previous 7 games (regulation only) they averaged just 59.4 ppg). The Illini will have problems scoring in this one as they will be taking on a Michigan team that has allowed just 55.8 ppg at home this year and 58.8 ppg in their last 5 games overall. Michigan does play a very slow paced game at home and that should help this game stay will under 119 points.
3 UNIT PLAY
Pittsburgh +2 over SETON HALL: Pittsburgh had won 4 in a row, but then ran into a bit of a buzz saw in South Florida as they lost a bad one 63-51. Even with that loss the Panthers are still playing much better than the Pirates right now. The Panthers are 4-1 in their last 5 games after they had lost 8 in a row and the biggest reason for their turn around has been the return of Trey Woodall, who has helped them averaged 72 ppg in their last 5 games, after averaging just 59.8 ppg during their 8 game skid. The Pirates know all about scoring woes right now as they have averaged just 55.8 ppg in going just 1-6 in their last 7 games, after they started the Big East 4-1. The Pirates have lost their last 3 Big East games as a favorite SU and I do not believe they should be favored in this one. The Pirates have allowed just 60.3 ppg in their last 5 games, but this team can not just score enough right now vs a rejuvenated Panther squad that is in dire need of solid wins. Pitt by at least 7 in this one.
2 UNIT PLAY
DETROIT -8 over Wisc- Green Bay: DETROIT is 15-4 ATS in home games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) since 1997, while WI-GREEN BAY is 15-29 ATS after allowing 50 points or less since 1997. Detroit comes in at 10-4 at home this year, while the Phoenix are just 1-11 on the road. Green Bay struggles to score on the road as they have averaged just 57.9 ppg away from, while being outscored by 11.5 ppg in those games. Detroit scores 70.8 ppg at home, and they play good defense there, allowing just 64.7 ppg. Titans by DD here.
3 UNIT PLAY
Lakers -5.5 over TORONTO: This is the 6th road game in a row for the Lakers, but luckily for them they had a day off yesterday to rest following a bad loss at New York on Friday. The Lakers have really owned the Raptors of late as they have won 7 of the last 8 meetings and have out scored Toronto by 9.6 ppg in the 7 wins. The Raptors are just 9-19 on the year and the do have a recent win over the Celtics and just a 6 point loss at Miami, but they have also lost by 36 to Boston, 23 at home to Atlanta and 16 at Denver (all that with in last 10 games), so they have had some problems with the better teams in the league. The Lakers have gone just 2-3 on this trip, but they are clearly the better team here and would like noting more than to finish this trip at .500. Lakers easily here.
2 UNIT PLAY
Chicago/ Boston Under 173: Google News Play. I really see this as a low scoring game. The way the Bulls have been playing defense this year, especially of late has been amazing. The Bulls have allowed just 86.9 ppg on 42.3% shooting overall, while in their last 4 games they have allowed just 77 ppg on 37.8% shooting. The Bulls have limited the Celtics to just 79.7 ppg in the last 3 meetings, including allowing just 79 points in an earlier meeting at the Garden. The Celtics know a little something about defense as they have allowed just 86.6 ppg on 41.8% shooting, while at the Garden they have allowed a mere 82.2 ppg on 40.3% shooting. The Bulls have the ability to put points on the board, while the Celtic offense has looked better of late, but still With Rose hurting the Bulls have really clamped it down at the defensive end, while the Celts are still scoring just 89.2 ppg at home. Neither team wants to run here and with both teams playing lockdown defense I expect this one in the 160's at best.
