B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G 6* W ido w Wi seg uy 2009 N FL Ea st Co ast GA ME OF THE YEA R on New England Patriots -7(-101 at 5dimes)
The Pats put the Bills away early Sunday. New England will rally around Randy Moss in this game, after everyone in the media has been ragging on Moss for his lack of effort in last Sunday's 20-10 win over Carolina. Look for him to have a big game, and for the Patriots to keep pouring on the points as they always amp it up in December. Forecasts are calling for snow, and the last time the Patriots played in snow they beat the Titans 59-0. It's an advantage for the offenses in games like this, because they know where they are going, while defenders have to react and it's not easy to react in slick conditions. Given that the Patriots clearly have the more potent offense, the advantage goes to New England. The Patriots are 12-0 in their last 12 meetings with Buffalo, winning 9 of those games by more than 7 points. New England clearly has their number, and that won't change this week with what's at stake. The Pats lead both the Jets and Dolphins by 1 game, so they cannot afford to let down here. The Pats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Buffalo. The Bills are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win, and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog. Take the Patriots and lay the points.
5* W iseg uy N FC Sunday "T ota l" B LOW OUT on Bucs/Seahawks OVER 39(-110 at betus)
In a game between two terrible teams, this thing has all the makings of a shootout. The Bucs are trying working on their passing game to get Rookie QB Josh Freeman more reps to prepare him for next season. The Seahawks struggle running the football, so they are relying heavily on the pass as well this season behind QB Matt Hasselbeck. Tampa has one of the worst defenses in the league, giving up 27.4 points/game and 361 total yards/game. Seattle isn't much better, giving up 23.2 points/game and 357 total yards/game this season. With the numbers presented, both offenses should have no trouble moving the ball at will and putting plenty of points on the board Sunday to get the OVER here. Seattle is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) after a loss by 21 or more points over the last 3 seasons. The Seahawks are 18-5 OVER (+12.5 Units) in home games after a loss by 14 or more points since 1992. Tampa Bay is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Seattle is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) vs. very bad defensive teams who give up 27 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons. Take the OVER 39 points.
4* on Baltimore Ravens -10(-104 at 5dimes)
The Ravens are coming off a dominant 48-3 win over a Detroit Lions' team that had little to play for, and now they host the a Chicago Bears' team that has nothing to play for this weekend, and the result should be similar. Jay Cutler is in line for one of his worst games of the season against this agressive Ravens' defense. Cutler has been awful all season, and it's not getting any easier Sunday. Chicago is 1-5 S.U. & 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games to play themselves right out of the playoff hunt. The Bears have gone just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall, and the fact is that this team just really isn't that good. Cutler has no weapons to get the ball to, and as a result he has to force balls that he shouldn't force. Plus, they have no running game to take the pressure off of Cutler. Their defense is in shambles with injuries to several key players. Chicago is 1-5 S.U. & 1-5 ATS on the road this season, scoring just 13.3 points/game and allowing 25.3 points/game while getting outscored by 12.0 points/contest. Baltimore is 5-2 at home, scoring 28.4 points/game and allowing 12.6 points/game while outscoring their foes by 17.8 points/contest. The numbers don't lie folks, this thing has all the makings of a blowout especially with Baltimore knowing they cannot afford a letdown. The Bears are 7-25 ATS (-20.5 Units) in road games in December games since 1992. Baltimore has been dominant in games they are supposed to win. That is shown by the fact that the Ravens are 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons, winning by 22.9 points/game. Take Baltimore and lay the points.
4* on Packers/Steelers OVER 40(-110 at bookmaker)
This is a reasonably low total for two of the better offenses in the league, thus all value is with the OVER. Let's start with Green Bay, who are scoring 26.5 points/game overall and those numbers increase when they get away from Lambeau, where they are scoring 28.8 points/game on the road. Now they are up against a Steelers' defense that is still playing without Polomalu at safety, and a unit that clearly isn't what it was a year ago. The Packers put up 404 total yards/game on the road, while Pittsburgh is scoring 23.2 points/game and averaging 380 total yards/game at home. We fully expect both squads to put up at least 21 points Sunday in a shootout with fireworks through the air from both Aaron Rodgers and Big Ben. The Packers are 13-1 OVER (+11.9 Units) after 4 or more consecutive wins against the spread since 1992. The Steelers are 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) in home games after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1992. This game sets up perfectly for a shootout given these trends. Take the OVER 40 points here.
4* on Cincinnati Bengals +7(-110 at sportsinteraction)
Look for Cincinnati to rally as a team and win this one for WR Chris Henry, who was killed earlier this week. The Bengals will already be highly motivated following their worst loss of the season at Minnesota last week. This has been a very resilient team, and they'll put their best effort forward Sunday which will be good enough to stay within this 7-point spread, likely pulling off the upset. San Diego is coming off their biggest win of the year, a 3-point victory at Dallas. That makes this a bit of a letdown spot for the Chargers, who won't be able to match the Bengals' intensity. Look for Cincinnati to shove it down their throat behind Cedric Benson, setting up timely play-action passing from Carson Palmer as the Bengals get their passing game back on track. Cincinnati has a pair of shutdown corners in Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph who match-up well with the Chargers' tall receivers in Vincent Jackson and Malcolm Floyd. The Bengals have had one of the best defenses in the league all season, giving up just 16.7 points/game and 295 yards/game this year. The Bengals are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog. This team lays it all on the line Sunday with Chris Henry in their hearts. Remember, their defensive coordinator lost his wife earlier this season and the Bengals came out and won at Baltimore as a 9-point underdog. Take Cincinnati and the points.