NFL Week 15 – Games to Watch
The NFL Marketwatch column takes a truly unique approach to sports betting. We don't handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace. We utilize the betting tools and statistics found on SportsInsights.com to pinpoint the week's most profitable betting opportunities.
We anticipate New England, Arizona, Houston, Minnesota, and New Your Giants to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks on every NFL game.
Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
This match-up fits our "contrarian sports investing value" in several ways. First of all, a lot of "smart money" is coming in on Pittsburgh, with the line moving from its opener of Pitt -1 to -2 -- even with two-thirds of the bets taking Green Bay. This kind of reverse line movement means larger bets -- and bigger money -- is more getting down on the Steelers. SportsInsights.com's proprietary software has many Smart Money plays being triggered on Pittsburgh. In addition, our offshore contact, although still licking his wounds from last weekend, agreed that "his sharps liked the Steelers."
Another reason to like the Steelers is that we can totally "buy low and sell high." Pittsburgh is on a downward spiral, losing five games in a row, while Green Bay has won five in a row. Pittsburgh's "playoff backs" are against the wall and we expect them to come out smoking at home. The Steelers went from a 6-2 record to a 6-7 record during this streak, losing five close games to generally good teams. The Public is overwhelmingly on Green Bay and this game is one of the heaviest-bet games of the week. Take the contrarian value and shop for the Pittsburgh -1 line.
Pittsburgh Steelers -1 -110 (Bet at SIA -1 -110)
Minnesota Vikings vs. Carolina Panthers
The Minnesota Vikings continue to play solid football. However, we still feel that the media is causing the Vikings to be over-valued in the NFL Marketplace. With all of the hype about Brett Favre and the 11-2 Vikings, there is bound to be an inflated line. SportsInsights betting percentages verify that the Public is overwhelmingly on Minnesota. Including all types of bets, a huge 80% of bets are taking the Vikings minus a chunk of points (-9). Even more telling is that the "junk bets" such as teasers and parlays are going the way of the Vikings in a huge way: 85%! The Public loves these types of "teasers and parlay" bets, showing that this is a particularly big Public game.
These sports marketplace indicators make us want to "bet against the Public." At a quick glance, even contrarian bettors will cringe when they see this play. The mighty 11-2 Vikings against a mediocre 5-8 Carolina Panther team? We say: take out your holiday eggnog -- and Pepto Bismol -- and "man-up" with this Sunday Night Football play. The Carolina Panthers have the sixth best passing defense this year and have scored almost as many points as they have given up this year. The line has been bid up from its opener of Carolina +7 all the way up to Carolina +10. That is some huge line value. Historically, the last few weeks of the NFL regular season has been a good period to bet on home dogs. Take Carolina plus the huge points at home.
Carolina Panthers +9 (5Dimes)
Tampa Bay Bucs vs. Seattle Seahawks
This is not the most glamorous games, but the NFL sports marketplace and SportsInsights' indicators had us keying in on this game. Keep your Pepto Bismol out because we like the 1-12 Tampa Bay Bucs in this match-up. About three out of every four bets is taking the Seattle Seahawks. The "junk bet" indicator that often flashes the "square Public's" views has a huge 81% of bets on Seattle.
Even with all of the betting activity on Seattle, there is "reverse line movement", with the line moving its opener of Tampa Bay +8.5 at CRIS (other books opened at TB +7), all the way down to TB +6.5. That is a huge line movement through the key football number of 7. The "smart money" really likes TB to move the line that much. Let's ride on the coattails of the "sharps" and "bet against the Public." TB has been on a slide, so let's hope to "buy" them at this recent low. If TB is going to "get off the ground," getting 6.5 points against a mediocre 5-8 Seattle team is a good place to start.
Tampa Bay Bucs +6.5
So, here's a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week's Games to Watch for the NFL.
Games to Watch (19-20-1, 48.7%)
Pittsburgh Steelers -1 -110 (Bet at SIA -1 -110)
Carolina Panthers +9
Tampa Bay Bucs +6.5
The NFL Marketwatch column takes a truly unique approach to sports betting. We don't handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace. We utilize the betting tools and statistics found on SportsInsights.com to pinpoint the week's most profitable betting opportunities.
We anticipate New England, Arizona, Houston, Minnesota, and New Your Giants to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks on every NFL game.
Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
This match-up fits our "contrarian sports investing value" in several ways. First of all, a lot of "smart money" is coming in on Pittsburgh, with the line moving from its opener of Pitt -1 to -2 -- even with two-thirds of the bets taking Green Bay. This kind of reverse line movement means larger bets -- and bigger money -- is more getting down on the Steelers. SportsInsights.com's proprietary software has many Smart Money plays being triggered on Pittsburgh. In addition, our offshore contact, although still licking his wounds from last weekend, agreed that "his sharps liked the Steelers."
Another reason to like the Steelers is that we can totally "buy low and sell high." Pittsburgh is on a downward spiral, losing five games in a row, while Green Bay has won five in a row. Pittsburgh's "playoff backs" are against the wall and we expect them to come out smoking at home. The Steelers went from a 6-2 record to a 6-7 record during this streak, losing five close games to generally good teams. The Public is overwhelmingly on Green Bay and this game is one of the heaviest-bet games of the week. Take the contrarian value and shop for the Pittsburgh -1 line.
Pittsburgh Steelers -1 -110 (Bet at SIA -1 -110)
Minnesota Vikings vs. Carolina Panthers
The Minnesota Vikings continue to play solid football. However, we still feel that the media is causing the Vikings to be over-valued in the NFL Marketplace. With all of the hype about Brett Favre and the 11-2 Vikings, there is bound to be an inflated line. SportsInsights betting percentages verify that the Public is overwhelmingly on Minnesota. Including all types of bets, a huge 80% of bets are taking the Vikings minus a chunk of points (-9). Even more telling is that the "junk bets" such as teasers and parlays are going the way of the Vikings in a huge way: 85%! The Public loves these types of "teasers and parlay" bets, showing that this is a particularly big Public game.
These sports marketplace indicators make us want to "bet against the Public." At a quick glance, even contrarian bettors will cringe when they see this play. The mighty 11-2 Vikings against a mediocre 5-8 Carolina Panther team? We say: take out your holiday eggnog -- and Pepto Bismol -- and "man-up" with this Sunday Night Football play. The Carolina Panthers have the sixth best passing defense this year and have scored almost as many points as they have given up this year. The line has been bid up from its opener of Carolina +7 all the way up to Carolina +10. That is some huge line value. Historically, the last few weeks of the NFL regular season has been a good period to bet on home dogs. Take Carolina plus the huge points at home.
Carolina Panthers +9 (5Dimes)
Tampa Bay Bucs vs. Seattle Seahawks
This is not the most glamorous games, but the NFL sports marketplace and SportsInsights' indicators had us keying in on this game. Keep your Pepto Bismol out because we like the 1-12 Tampa Bay Bucs in this match-up. About three out of every four bets is taking the Seattle Seahawks. The "junk bet" indicator that often flashes the "square Public's" views has a huge 81% of bets on Seattle.
Even with all of the betting activity on Seattle, there is "reverse line movement", with the line moving its opener of Tampa Bay +8.5 at CRIS (other books opened at TB +7), all the way down to TB +6.5. That is a huge line movement through the key football number of 7. The "smart money" really likes TB to move the line that much. Let's ride on the coattails of the "sharps" and "bet against the Public." TB has been on a slide, so let's hope to "buy" them at this recent low. If TB is going to "get off the ground," getting 6.5 points against a mediocre 5-8 Seattle team is a good place to start.
Tampa Bay Bucs +6.5
So, here's a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week's Games to Watch for the NFL.
Games to Watch (19-20-1, 48.7%)
Pittsburgh Steelers -1 -110 (Bet at SIA -1 -110)
Carolina Panthers +9
Tampa Bay Bucs +6.5
RANDALL THE HANDLE'S NFL SELECTIONS
THE BEST:
Patriots @ Bills
Line: New England by 7
No more excuses. No more lofty expectations. This Patriots team is nothing more than mediocre these days.. Still, that won’t prevent other teams from gunning for them, especially these Bills after Buffalo let one slip away in season opener. New England has failed miserably on the road this season with just one victory in six tries, that one occurring in Tampa. The Patriots pass defence is weak and even non-passing teams have taken advantage. Buffalo can mix the pass and run enough to keep this one interesting and well within the touchdown being offered.
TAKING: Buffalo +7
RISKING: 2.14 units to win 2 PINNACLE
Buccaneers @ Seahawks
Line: Seattle by 6½
Nothing really changes with the Seahawks. For years, they’ve been solid at home, brutal on the road. This season is no different. Seattle is 4-2 at home, outscoring its opponents 143-89. Outside the state of Washington, the ‘Hawks are a paltry 1-6 and have been outscored by an alarming 212-107. The Buccaneers don’t win anywhere with just one victory in 17 games, dating back to November of last year. There is no reason to anticipate a change here. Seattle does what it usually does by punching out a weakling.
TAKING: Seattle –6½
RISKING: 2.02 units to win 2 PINNACLE
Cardinals @ Lions
Line: Arizona by 12
Call us irresponsible. After all, upon watching the Cardinals dismal performance on Monday night and then asking them to travel and spot prohibitive points, we have to be considered careless. In reality, it’s just the opposite. Had Arizona manhandled the ordinary 49ers like many had assumed, this line may have been in the 14 range. Really, we’re getting a bargain. The Lions are dreadful. Their defence ranks dead last in the league while Detroit’s pass defence also ranks at the very bottom. After Arizona’s embarrassing effort, this is the perfect opponent to right the ship.
TAKING: Arizona –12
RISKING: 2.2 units to win 2 PINNACLE
THE REST:
Cowboys @ Saints
Line: New Orleans by 7
Saints home for only the second time in six weeks and in a Saturday prime time slot, expect another showcase of their vast talent. Dallas has defeated only one winning team thus far and with its suspect secondary, this visit will not aid that total.
TAKING: New Orleans –7
Bears @ Ravens
Line: Baltimore by 10
The Bears are playing like what they are alleged to do in the woods. That said, not willing to trust this Baltimore offence to clobber an opponent for the second straight week. Ravens still have several key guys on sidelines.
TAKING: Chicago +10
Falcons @ Jets
Line: Jets by 3½
Yes, Atlanta has taken a step back this season. Still, prefer battling Falcons to a Jets squad that can handle the pushover teams but has failed against most contenders. Mark Sanchez expected to return to pivot New York, another plus for our choice.
TAKING: Jets -3½
49ers @ Eagles
Line: Philadelphia by 8½
Eagles glad to be home after having just one home game the past five weeks. Philly has climbed atop the NFC East and with Denver and Dallas on deck, this one becomes essential. San Fran’s offence will have difficult time keeping up.
TAKING: Philadelphia –8 ½
Packers @ Steelers
Line: Pittsburgh by 2
With good reason, Steelers supporters are bailing quicker than Tigers Woods’ sponsors. However, this might be an overreaction as Pittsburgh’s season depends on this one and they’ve had 10 days to prepare.
TAKING: Pittsburgh –2
Dolphins @ Titans
Line: Tennessee by 3
Have to take any points being offered in what figures to be a playoff type atmosphere as both need this one desperately. Miami run defence is a stellar unit that can slow down phenom RB Chris Johnson.
TAKING: Miami +3
Browns @ Chiefs
Line: Kansas City by 2
Many will be high on Browns after they knocked off the Steelers but let’s not forget that the Chiefs managed to do the same. Dwayne Bowe returns to lineup for Kansas City and with Jamaal Charles running well, KC offers more than this visitor.
TAKING: Kansas City –2
Texans @ Rams
Line: Houston by 11 ½
Not fond of giving away abundance of points with erratic Texans but facing an already weak Rams squad that keeps losing starters, Houston becomes the prudent choice. Rams have yet to win at home.
TAKING: Houston –11 ½
Bengals @ Chargers
Line: San Diego by 7
Bengals were pounded by Vikings last week but Cincinnati’s defence is a formidable unit that is unlikely to get clobbered again. Cincy’s corners capable of slowing down Chargers potent passing game.
TAKING: Cincinnati +7
Raiders @ Broncos
Line: Denver by 14
Looks like Charlie Frye will take the reins for the Raiders this week and while Frye is a career journeyman, he is a better alternative than JaMarcus Russell. Two touchdown spot is a bit steep in what figures to be low-scoring affair.
TAKING: Oakland +14
Vikings @ Panthers
Line: Minnesota by 9
Panthers have covered five of past seven despite limited production from quarterback position. Minnesota is much more intimidating on its own turf and this will be only its second road game in past seven weeks.
TAKING: Carolina +9
Giants @ Redskins
Line: NY Giants by 3
Redskins could be weary from heavy travel while the Giants have remained in the neighbourhood. G-men have struggled on special teams and pass defence recently but this foe does not provide much adversity in either area.
TAKING: NY Giants –3
Last week's record: 7- 9
Season: 108-99-1
While there is much speculation on whether the Colts will play starters for the majority of their remaining games, we are still comfortable endorsing Indianapolis in this one. Jacksonville has not be particularly good against the pass and even if Peyton Manning is sat down in second half, it will be done with a lead. Colts dominated stats in first meeting but just edged out a 14-12 win. A Manning interception in Jacksonville's end zone and RB Joseph Addai fumbling deep in Jags territory prevented a much larger disparity on the scoreboard. Jacksonville has just three home covers in past 15 as host.
TAKING: Indianapolis –3 (No bets)
THE BEST:
Patriots @ Bills
Line: New England by 7
No more excuses. No more lofty expectations. This Patriots team is nothing more than mediocre these days.. Still, that won’t prevent other teams from gunning for them, especially these Bills after Buffalo let one slip away in season opener. New England has failed miserably on the road this season with just one victory in six tries, that one occurring in Tampa. The Patriots pass defence is weak and even non-passing teams have taken advantage. Buffalo can mix the pass and run enough to keep this one interesting and well within the touchdown being offered.
TAKING: Buffalo +7
RISKING: 2.14 units to win 2 PINNACLE
Buccaneers @ Seahawks
Line: Seattle by 6½
Nothing really changes with the Seahawks. For years, they’ve been solid at home, brutal on the road. This season is no different. Seattle is 4-2 at home, outscoring its opponents 143-89. Outside the state of Washington, the ‘Hawks are a paltry 1-6 and have been outscored by an alarming 212-107. The Buccaneers don’t win anywhere with just one victory in 17 games, dating back to November of last year. There is no reason to anticipate a change here. Seattle does what it usually does by punching out a weakling.
TAKING: Seattle –6½
RISKING: 2.02 units to win 2 PINNACLE
Cardinals @ Lions
Line: Arizona by 12
Call us irresponsible. After all, upon watching the Cardinals dismal performance on Monday night and then asking them to travel and spot prohibitive points, we have to be considered careless. In reality, it’s just the opposite. Had Arizona manhandled the ordinary 49ers like many had assumed, this line may have been in the 14 range. Really, we’re getting a bargain. The Lions are dreadful. Their defence ranks dead last in the league while Detroit’s pass defence also ranks at the very bottom. After Arizona’s embarrassing effort, this is the perfect opponent to right the ship.
TAKING: Arizona –12
RISKING: 2.2 units to win 2 PINNACLE
THE REST:
Cowboys @ Saints
Line: New Orleans by 7
Saints home for only the second time in six weeks and in a Saturday prime time slot, expect another showcase of their vast talent. Dallas has defeated only one winning team thus far and with its suspect secondary, this visit will not aid that total.
TAKING: New Orleans –7
Bears @ Ravens
Line: Baltimore by 10
The Bears are playing like what they are alleged to do in the woods. That said, not willing to trust this Baltimore offence to clobber an opponent for the second straight week. Ravens still have several key guys on sidelines.
TAKING: Chicago +10
Falcons @ Jets
Line: Jets by 3½
Yes, Atlanta has taken a step back this season. Still, prefer battling Falcons to a Jets squad that can handle the pushover teams but has failed against most contenders. Mark Sanchez expected to return to pivot New York, another plus for our choice.
TAKING: Jets -3½
49ers @ Eagles
Line: Philadelphia by 8½
Eagles glad to be home after having just one home game the past five weeks. Philly has climbed atop the NFC East and with Denver and Dallas on deck, this one becomes essential. San Fran’s offence will have difficult time keeping up.
TAKING: Philadelphia –8 ½
Packers @ Steelers
Line: Pittsburgh by 2
With good reason, Steelers supporters are bailing quicker than Tigers Woods’ sponsors. However, this might be an overreaction as Pittsburgh’s season depends on this one and they’ve had 10 days to prepare.
TAKING: Pittsburgh –2
Dolphins @ Titans
Line: Tennessee by 3
Have to take any points being offered in what figures to be a playoff type atmosphere as both need this one desperately. Miami run defence is a stellar unit that can slow down phenom RB Chris Johnson.
TAKING: Miami +3
Browns @ Chiefs
Line: Kansas City by 2
Many will be high on Browns after they knocked off the Steelers but let’s not forget that the Chiefs managed to do the same. Dwayne Bowe returns to lineup for Kansas City and with Jamaal Charles running well, KC offers more than this visitor.
TAKING: Kansas City –2
Texans @ Rams
Line: Houston by 11 ½
Not fond of giving away abundance of points with erratic Texans but facing an already weak Rams squad that keeps losing starters, Houston becomes the prudent choice. Rams have yet to win at home.
TAKING: Houston –11 ½
Bengals @ Chargers
Line: San Diego by 7
Bengals were pounded by Vikings last week but Cincinnati’s defence is a formidable unit that is unlikely to get clobbered again. Cincy’s corners capable of slowing down Chargers potent passing game.
TAKING: Cincinnati +7
Raiders @ Broncos
Line: Denver by 14
Looks like Charlie Frye will take the reins for the Raiders this week and while Frye is a career journeyman, he is a better alternative than JaMarcus Russell. Two touchdown spot is a bit steep in what figures to be low-scoring affair.
TAKING: Oakland +14
Vikings @ Panthers
Line: Minnesota by 9
Panthers have covered five of past seven despite limited production from quarterback position. Minnesota is much more intimidating on its own turf and this will be only its second road game in past seven weeks.
TAKING: Carolina +9
Giants @ Redskins
Line: NY Giants by 3
Redskins could be weary from heavy travel while the Giants have remained in the neighbourhood. G-men have struggled on special teams and pass defence recently but this foe does not provide much adversity in either area.
TAKING: NY Giants –3
Last week's record: 7- 9
Season: 108-99-1
While there is much speculation on whether the Colts will play starters for the majority of their remaining games, we are still comfortable endorsing Indianapolis in this one. Jacksonville has not be particularly good against the pass and even if Peyton Manning is sat down in second half, it will be done with a lead. Colts dominated stats in first meeting but just edged out a 14-12 win. A Manning interception in Jacksonville's end zone and RB Joseph Addai fumbling deep in Jags territory prevented a much larger disparity on the scoreboard. Jacksonville has just three home covers in past 15 as host.
TAKING: Indianapolis –3 (No bets)
Brandon Lang
40 DIME - SAN DIEGO CHARGERS - (if 7 1/2 you buy the 1/2, and lay 7. Never get beat by the hook) - It just won't be there today for the Bengals.
If you struggle offensively at Minnesota, and only throw for 97 yards against the 16th rated pass defense of the Vikings, what are you going to do against the 10th pass defense in the Chargers? A defense that is getting better week-in and week- out.
Fact of the matter is the Bengals offense hasn't really been all that dynamic all year and when you start throwing for less than a 100 yards in week 14, I just can't trust you back to back on the road against anybody anywhere.
It was a very physical game at Minnesota, and they were completely shut down and now they face an even hotter team in the Chargers winners of 11 in a row in December under Norv Turner and if that isn't enough for you, get a load of this:
Philip Rivers is 18-0 SU, and 15-3 ATS when facing a team off a loss at home, which of course is the case with the Bengals last week at Minnesota.
My gut feeling right now is you can pencil in the AFC Championship game right now in Indy between the Chargers and the Colts because you are going to see just how outclassed this Bengals team is against what I feel is the 2nd best team in the AFC and right now the 3rd best team in the NFL.
And folks, you can't discount the Chris Henry factor on the hearts and minds of these Bengals players and if they were at home it might be a different story but on the road in this situation, I will gladly lay the number in what I truly feel will be a double digit home win for San Diego.
The Chargers are the play.
20 DIME - GREEN BAY PACKERS "Unleash hell" in December.
Famous words of Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin days before his team took the field at home against the Raiders, this after his team lost to the Chiefs in Kansas City the week before.
"Unleash hell" was a 27-24 home loss to Oakland as a 13 1/2 point home favorite.
Ok Mike, we will give you a mulligan and let you go to Cleveland and face a Browns team you had beaten 13 in a row and another chance for you to "unleash hell."
You then proceed to lose 13-6 in one of the most embarrasing, lethargic efforts I personally have ever seen since I've been a handicapper.
Let's be honest here, this team should have never won the Super Bowl and they should never have been put up on that holy pedestal they were put on because then this fall they were on wouldn't have been as shocking.
Fact of the matter is this is an average football team playing average football, and once you really accept them for who they are, then losses like at Kansas City, home to Oakland and at Cleveland won't seem so shocking.
Green Bay on the other hand is playing solid football and from an X's and O's standpoint, they propose some serious matchup problems against this very beatable Steelers defense.
The bottom line for me is the fact when the Steelers returned home to face the Raiders and QB Brad Gradkowski, they were playing for their season and they failed. Then they went on the road with their season even more on the line facing Brady Quinn and they failed.
Now against the best team they have faced in weeks and a hot QB in Aaron Rodgers, I just don't see them having the will power nor emotion to step up with 60 minutes of football if they weren't able to do it the last 3 weeks against 3 of the worst teams in football.
I am going to war with the Packers all day long.
10 DIME - CLEVELAND BROWNS - The bottom line is the Kansas City Chiefs shouldn't be favored over anybody in the NFL. Simple as that.
They were a home favorite once this year and that was at home to the Raiders and they lost outright 13-10.
This Cleveland team is playing perhaps their best ball of the year right now and with the extra time off since beating the hell out of the Steelers 13-6, a game they sacked Big Ben 8 times, it is going to be a long day for Matt Cassel.
If Cassel plays well enough against this improving Browns defense to get the win, so be it, I will take my loss and move on but for my dollar I say no way.
Since their super bowl type win at home over the Steelers 3 weeks ago, they have proceeded to get destroyed by the Chargers 43-14 and back-to-back games at home by Denver 44-13, and the Bills 16-10.
Head coach Todd Haley now realizes Matt Cassel isn't the answer, but then again as bad as this team is they have no answers and I will take the Browns in this spot who have at least shown some consistent play the last few weeks.
Cleveland has covered 4 in a row, and 7 of their last 10, and I really like what I am seeing from Brady Quinn at QB, and the wildcat with Joshua Cribbs.
I will go to war with the small dog here and call for the Browns to get their 2nd straight win here
Cleveland is the play.
FREE SELECTION - ARIZONA CARDINALS
40 DIME - SAN DIEGO CHARGERS - (if 7 1/2 you buy the 1/2, and lay 7. Never get beat by the hook) - It just won't be there today for the Bengals.
If you struggle offensively at Minnesota, and only throw for 97 yards against the 16th rated pass defense of the Vikings, what are you going to do against the 10th pass defense in the Chargers? A defense that is getting better week-in and week- out.
Fact of the matter is the Bengals offense hasn't really been all that dynamic all year and when you start throwing for less than a 100 yards in week 14, I just can't trust you back to back on the road against anybody anywhere.
It was a very physical game at Minnesota, and they were completely shut down and now they face an even hotter team in the Chargers winners of 11 in a row in December under Norv Turner and if that isn't enough for you, get a load of this:
Philip Rivers is 18-0 SU, and 15-3 ATS when facing a team off a loss at home, which of course is the case with the Bengals last week at Minnesota.
My gut feeling right now is you can pencil in the AFC Championship game right now in Indy between the Chargers and the Colts because you are going to see just how outclassed this Bengals team is against what I feel is the 2nd best team in the AFC and right now the 3rd best team in the NFL.
And folks, you can't discount the Chris Henry factor on the hearts and minds of these Bengals players and if they were at home it might be a different story but on the road in this situation, I will gladly lay the number in what I truly feel will be a double digit home win for San Diego.
The Chargers are the play.
20 DIME - GREEN BAY PACKERS "Unleash hell" in December.
Famous words of Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin days before his team took the field at home against the Raiders, this after his team lost to the Chiefs in Kansas City the week before.
"Unleash hell" was a 27-24 home loss to Oakland as a 13 1/2 point home favorite.
Ok Mike, we will give you a mulligan and let you go to Cleveland and face a Browns team you had beaten 13 in a row and another chance for you to "unleash hell."
You then proceed to lose 13-6 in one of the most embarrasing, lethargic efforts I personally have ever seen since I've been a handicapper.
Let's be honest here, this team should have never won the Super Bowl and they should never have been put up on that holy pedestal they were put on because then this fall they were on wouldn't have been as shocking.
Fact of the matter is this is an average football team playing average football, and once you really accept them for who they are, then losses like at Kansas City, home to Oakland and at Cleveland won't seem so shocking.
Green Bay on the other hand is playing solid football and from an X's and O's standpoint, they propose some serious matchup problems against this very beatable Steelers defense.
The bottom line for me is the fact when the Steelers returned home to face the Raiders and QB Brad Gradkowski, they were playing for their season and they failed. Then they went on the road with their season even more on the line facing Brady Quinn and they failed.
Now against the best team they have faced in weeks and a hot QB in Aaron Rodgers, I just don't see them having the will power nor emotion to step up with 60 minutes of football if they weren't able to do it the last 3 weeks against 3 of the worst teams in football.
I am going to war with the Packers all day long.
10 DIME - CLEVELAND BROWNS - The bottom line is the Kansas City Chiefs shouldn't be favored over anybody in the NFL. Simple as that.
They were a home favorite once this year and that was at home to the Raiders and they lost outright 13-10.
This Cleveland team is playing perhaps their best ball of the year right now and with the extra time off since beating the hell out of the Steelers 13-6, a game they sacked Big Ben 8 times, it is going to be a long day for Matt Cassel.
If Cassel plays well enough against this improving Browns defense to get the win, so be it, I will take my loss and move on but for my dollar I say no way.
Since their super bowl type win at home over the Steelers 3 weeks ago, they have proceeded to get destroyed by the Chargers 43-14 and back-to-back games at home by Denver 44-13, and the Bills 16-10.
Head coach Todd Haley now realizes Matt Cassel isn't the answer, but then again as bad as this team is they have no answers and I will take the Browns in this spot who have at least shown some consistent play the last few weeks.
Cleveland has covered 4 in a row, and 7 of their last 10, and I really like what I am seeing from Brady Quinn at QB, and the wildcat with Joshua Cribbs.
I will go to war with the small dog here and call for the Browns to get their 2nd straight win here
Cleveland is the play.
FREE SELECTION - ARIZONA CARDINALS
SPORTS WAGERS
S. Mississippi –3½ over Mid Tennessee State
The first ever meeting between these two teams will feature plenty of offense, as both teams racked up over 30 points a game during the regular season. The main difference between these two schools is that Southern Mississippi did it while playing in the strong Conference USA while Middle Tennessee State did it while playing in the worst conference in College Football. This isn’t to say that the Blue Raiders will have trouble scoring, but it’s important to recognize that Southern Mississippi will be the best team they have played since conference play started. The step up in competition from the dregs of the Sun Belt to the high-powered offense of Southern Mississippi will surely play a factor this Sunday. Consider that against horrific Memphis at home and Sun Belt champion Troy, Middle Tennessee State managed to score 31 and 7 points. That simply won’t win the game against a Southern Miss squad that put up 43 points against Houston, 44 against Tulsa and almost upset conference champion East Carolina in the season finale. Middle Tennessee State’s QB Dwight Dasher put up some ridiculous numbers throwing and running the football but one could make the case Martevious Young is just as good a quarterback at this point in the season. Young took over when Austin Davis went down and had a 13-1 touchdown to interception ratio while throwing for 1577 yards in seven games. Southern Mississippi lost the three games he played in by a combined 14 points. Both these teams will trade touchdowns and one of them may open up a significant lead but at the pace and efficiency they both play at the final score should be relatively close. Southern Mississippi played a much better schedule and won’t be surprised by the talent level of the Blue Raiders. They played the two toughest opponents on their schedule very close and even if the defense plays poorly they should be able to name the score on offense. Play: Southern Mississippi –3½ +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
PITTSBURGH –2 over Green Bay
If you’re a regular reader of this section than you know an angle I love to use is buy low and sell high and this game fits perfectly. The Steelers have cost a lot of people money over the past few weeks and those that bet on them week after week probably can’t wait to bet against them here after that awful performance against the then 1-11 Brownies. The Steelers aren’t just coming off one bad performance either. They’re coming off back-to-back losses to Cleveland and Oakland, one as a 10-point favorite and the other as a 14½-point favorite. They also lost to the Chiefs and when you lose to Oakland, Kansas City and Cleveland in the span of a month, that’s about as low as you can go. Meanwhile, the Packers are gaining steam with five straight wins. They recently crushed the Ravens on a Monday Night Football game and last week they won in Chicago, 21-14 and that’s a very flattering score for the Bears. The Bears were dominated. So, the Packs stock is soaring, the Steelers stock is reeling and that has created a very beatable number here. The Steelers have also had 10 days to prepare and you know they’re absolutely steaming to get back out there and get this thing right-sided. Buy low and sell high. Play: Pittsburgh –2 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).
Cincinnati +7 over SAN DIEGO
Sure, the tale of Chris Henry is a sad one but nobody forced him to go Indiana Jones on a moving vehicle. The guy was a loose cannon anyway and he hasn’t played in a month so while his death is a shocker for sure, it’s unlikely to affect the Bengals in a negative way. They’ll dedicate the game to him and likely play extremely well. Now that it’s out of the way, let’s move on to the game. The Bengals are dangerous as hell with a terrific defense and an efficient offense. They were buried in Minnesota last week but they’re still 9-4 and have only lost by more than the offered points here twice this season. They simply came out flat and it happens to every team over the course of a season. Now that the Bengals got that one out of its system, they’re a solid bet to bounce back in a big way. The Chargers have reeled off eight in a row and because of that, combined with the Bengals 20-point loss last week, the Chargers are overpriced here. Fact is, they’ve had a rather easy schedule, beating Kansas City, Oakland, a reeling Giants team, K.C. again, Cleveland, Denver minus Kyle Orton and last week a reeling Cowboy squad by the slimmest of margins and they were fortunate to get that win. So, while the W’s in the win column are impressive, the opposition was not and frankly, this edition of the Chargers does not impress me in the least. An efficient QB like Carson Palmer can do a lot of damage to this team and it says here the Chargers finally get exposed for being an average team, just like they were in the first five weeks of the season when they lost to Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Denver and barely beat the Raiders. Play: Cincinnati +7 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
KANSAS CITY –2 over Cleveland
Well, this might not be the most exciting game on the board but a win with the Chiefs pays exactly the same as a win with the Saints. In fact, this one will draw less interest than Siegfried and Roy would have at a nanny convention. Nonetheless, this one has to mean a lot more to the Chiefs than it does to the Brownies. Cleveland is coming off that highly charged, emotional win over the Steelers and that was its signature win this season. Lost in that signature win is that Brady Quinn went 6-19 and looked like he usually does, which is confused. The Brownies had its glory game and now they’ll travel to play a team that would be absolutely roasted by the local fans and media should they lose another home game to a weak team. Incidentally, the Chiefs also beat the Steelers four weeks ago and subsequently lost its next game by 30 points. That win is a distant memory however, and the Chiefs need this one badly to avoid a flurry of scrutiny. The good news is that they’ll get one of its key offensive players back in Dwayne Bowe. RB Jamaal Charles is an absolute factor every time he touches the ball. The whole team is being challenged and frankly, they couldn’t have handpicked a riper opponent that’s coming off that Super Bowl like win over the hated Steelers. Play: Kansas City –2 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).
S. Mississippi –3½ over Mid Tennessee State
The first ever meeting between these two teams will feature plenty of offense, as both teams racked up over 30 points a game during the regular season. The main difference between these two schools is that Southern Mississippi did it while playing in the strong Conference USA while Middle Tennessee State did it while playing in the worst conference in College Football. This isn’t to say that the Blue Raiders will have trouble scoring, but it’s important to recognize that Southern Mississippi will be the best team they have played since conference play started. The step up in competition from the dregs of the Sun Belt to the high-powered offense of Southern Mississippi will surely play a factor this Sunday. Consider that against horrific Memphis at home and Sun Belt champion Troy, Middle Tennessee State managed to score 31 and 7 points. That simply won’t win the game against a Southern Miss squad that put up 43 points against Houston, 44 against Tulsa and almost upset conference champion East Carolina in the season finale. Middle Tennessee State’s QB Dwight Dasher put up some ridiculous numbers throwing and running the football but one could make the case Martevious Young is just as good a quarterback at this point in the season. Young took over when Austin Davis went down and had a 13-1 touchdown to interception ratio while throwing for 1577 yards in seven games. Southern Mississippi lost the three games he played in by a combined 14 points. Both these teams will trade touchdowns and one of them may open up a significant lead but at the pace and efficiency they both play at the final score should be relatively close. Southern Mississippi played a much better schedule and won’t be surprised by the talent level of the Blue Raiders. They played the two toughest opponents on their schedule very close and even if the defense plays poorly they should be able to name the score on offense. Play: Southern Mississippi –3½ +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
PITTSBURGH –2 over Green Bay
If you’re a regular reader of this section than you know an angle I love to use is buy low and sell high and this game fits perfectly. The Steelers have cost a lot of people money over the past few weeks and those that bet on them week after week probably can’t wait to bet against them here after that awful performance against the then 1-11 Brownies. The Steelers aren’t just coming off one bad performance either. They’re coming off back-to-back losses to Cleveland and Oakland, one as a 10-point favorite and the other as a 14½-point favorite. They also lost to the Chiefs and when you lose to Oakland, Kansas City and Cleveland in the span of a month, that’s about as low as you can go. Meanwhile, the Packers are gaining steam with five straight wins. They recently crushed the Ravens on a Monday Night Football game and last week they won in Chicago, 21-14 and that’s a very flattering score for the Bears. The Bears were dominated. So, the Packs stock is soaring, the Steelers stock is reeling and that has created a very beatable number here. The Steelers have also had 10 days to prepare and you know they’re absolutely steaming to get back out there and get this thing right-sided. Buy low and sell high. Play: Pittsburgh –2 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).
Cincinnati +7 over SAN DIEGO
Sure, the tale of Chris Henry is a sad one but nobody forced him to go Indiana Jones on a moving vehicle. The guy was a loose cannon anyway and he hasn’t played in a month so while his death is a shocker for sure, it’s unlikely to affect the Bengals in a negative way. They’ll dedicate the game to him and likely play extremely well. Now that it’s out of the way, let’s move on to the game. The Bengals are dangerous as hell with a terrific defense and an efficient offense. They were buried in Minnesota last week but they’re still 9-4 and have only lost by more than the offered points here twice this season. They simply came out flat and it happens to every team over the course of a season. Now that the Bengals got that one out of its system, they’re a solid bet to bounce back in a big way. The Chargers have reeled off eight in a row and because of that, combined with the Bengals 20-point loss last week, the Chargers are overpriced here. Fact is, they’ve had a rather easy schedule, beating Kansas City, Oakland, a reeling Giants team, K.C. again, Cleveland, Denver minus Kyle Orton and last week a reeling Cowboy squad by the slimmest of margins and they were fortunate to get that win. So, while the W’s in the win column are impressive, the opposition was not and frankly, this edition of the Chargers does not impress me in the least. An efficient QB like Carson Palmer can do a lot of damage to this team and it says here the Chargers finally get exposed for being an average team, just like they were in the first five weeks of the season when they lost to Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Denver and barely beat the Raiders. Play: Cincinnati +7 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
KANSAS CITY –2 over Cleveland
Well, this might not be the most exciting game on the board but a win with the Chiefs pays exactly the same as a win with the Saints. In fact, this one will draw less interest than Siegfried and Roy would have at a nanny convention. Nonetheless, this one has to mean a lot more to the Chiefs than it does to the Brownies. Cleveland is coming off that highly charged, emotional win over the Steelers and that was its signature win this season. Lost in that signature win is that Brady Quinn went 6-19 and looked like he usually does, which is confused. The Brownies had its glory game and now they’ll travel to play a team that would be absolutely roasted by the local fans and media should they lose another home game to a weak team. Incidentally, the Chiefs also beat the Steelers four weeks ago and subsequently lost its next game by 30 points. That win is a distant memory however, and the Chiefs need this one badly to avoid a flurry of scrutiny. The good news is that they’ll get one of its key offensive players back in Dwayne Bowe. RB Jamaal Charles is an absolute factor every time he touches the ball. The whole team is being challenged and frankly, they couldn’t have handpicked a riper opponent that’s coming off that Super Bowl like win over the hated Steelers. Play: Kansas City –2 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).
Chuck O'Brien
SUNDAY'S WINNERS ...
20 DIME - CARDINALS (minus the points vs. Lions)
20 DIME - 49ERS (plus the points vs. Eagles)
20 DIME - SEAHAWKS (minus the points vs. Buccaneers)
Cardinals
BREAKDOWN: How pissed off do you think Kurt Warner and the Cardinals are after that disastrous seven-turnover performance at San Francisco on Monday night? Arizona was held to a season-low nine points, suffered its second-worst loss (24-9) of the season and blew a chance to clinch the NFC West title. Because of all that, you can expect the Cardinals to come out on a mission today at Detroit and put it on the pathetic Lions, who have lost three straight games by scores of 34-12, 23-13 and 48-3 to the Packers, Bengals and Ravens, respectively. Last week’s loss in Baltimore as a two-touchdown underdog was as ugly as it gets, as Detroit got outgained 548-229, giving up 308 rushing yards. Daunte Culpepper played quarterback for the injured Matthew Stafford and was predictably a disaster (16-for-34, 135 yards, two INTs). Good news for the Cardinals’ defense – which is just two weeks removed from picking off Brett Favre twice and holding Adrian Peterson to 19 rushing yards – is Culpepper is getting the starting nod again today. And he won’t have his best RB, as Kevin Smith is out (also, Pro Bowl WR Calvin Johnson continues to nurse an injury). … Last week’s turnover-fest aside, the Cardinals boast one of the most explosive, productive offenses in the league. Conversely, the Lions are dead last in the NFL in scoring defense (31.2 ppg allowed) and total defense (400.5 ypg allowed). And with or without Stafford, Detroit’s offense is awful, averaging barely 16 points and just 297 total yards per game, and they have the second-worst turnover margin (minus-11). … Despite the loss in San Francisco, Arizona is still 13-5 ATS in its last 18 overall and 5-2 SU and ATS on the road this year (6-2 SU and ATS on the road going back to last year’s playoffs), and it has cashed in four straight games after a SU loss and four straight after a non-cover (Arizona hasn’t had back-to-back non-covers all year). Meanwhile, Detroit is 3-9-1 ATS overall, 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight, 3-12 ATS in its last 15 at home and 1-4-1 ATS in its last six as a double-digit underdog
49ers
BREAKDOWN: The 49ers have just one win in six road games – on opening day at Arizona – but they’ve been very competitive in their five road losses, none of which have been by more than six points. In fact, those five losses were by a total of 19 points, including a three-point last-second defeat at Minnesota as a seven-point underdog; a four-point loss at Indianapolis as a 13-point ‘dog; and that six-point setback at Green Bay as a six-point pup. Obviously, the Vikings, Colts and Packers are all playoff teams, as are the Cardinals, whom San Francisco beat twice (including Monday’s 24-9 home rout in which the defense forced seven turnovers) … The 49ers are 8-3-2 ATS on the season, 3-1-2 ATS on the road (only non-cover was a three-point loss at Seattle as a one-point favorite) and 4-0-2 ATS as an underdog. Since last year, the Niners are on an 8-1-2 ATS roll when catching points. … Philadelphia is riding a four-game winning streak (3-1 ATS), but it has failed to cover in its last two home games (four-point loss to Dallas; three-point win over Washington as a 9½-point favorite). … The 49ers’ defense has been stout of late (13.6 ppg last five games), but Philadelphia has given up 31, 20, 24 and 38 points in four of its last five games, including 38 points and 500-plus yards in last week’s game at the Giants. Lastly, the Eagles have just one win of more than seven points in their last six contests, and that was against the Matt Ryan-less Falcons, while six of the 49ers’ last eight games were decided by a TD or less (and the only two that weren’t, San Francisco won outright).
Seahawks
BREAKDOWN: The last time a team from Florida traveled all the way to Seattle, it lost 41-0. That team was the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are a billion times better than the woeful, one-win Buccaneers. In fact, four of Seattle’s five wins this season have come at home, and the Seahawks cashed in all four of those games. One was against the 49ers two weeks ago (20-17 as a one-point underdog), and San Francisco showed on Monday against Arizona that it is a quality team. Seattle’s other three home victories were double-digit routs of the aforementioned Jaguars, plus NFL bottom-feeders Detroit (32-20) and St. Louis (28-0). Well, Tampa Bay certainly qualifies as a bottom-feeder. Not only are the Bucs 1-12 on the season, they’re 1-16 SU (and just 5-12 ATS) going back to last December. Since upsetting Green Bay 38-28 at home after their bye week, the Bucs have lost five in a row, including three double-digit setbacks to New Orleans (38-7 at home), Carolina (16-6 on the road) and the Jets last week (26-3) … Tampa’s offense is a joke, ranking 29th out of 32 teams in points scored (14.6 per game) and 28th in total yards (278.2 ypg). It has scored 17 points or less in eight of its last 11 contests, failing to crack double digits in three of the last four. And the Bucs’ defense isn’t any better, giving up 27.4 ppg (only the Lions and Rams give up more). … With blowout wins over the Rams (twice) and Lions, Seattle has proven that, while it is no longer an elite team, it can dominate inferior competition. It will do so again here with an easy victory as the Seahawks improve on impressive ATS runs of 6-2-1 at home, 5-1 as a favorite, 10-3 as a home favorite and 5-1 against losing teams.
SUNDAY'S WINNERS ...
20 DIME - CARDINALS (minus the points vs. Lions)
20 DIME - 49ERS (plus the points vs. Eagles)
20 DIME - SEAHAWKS (minus the points vs. Buccaneers)
Cardinals
BREAKDOWN: How pissed off do you think Kurt Warner and the Cardinals are after that disastrous seven-turnover performance at San Francisco on Monday night? Arizona was held to a season-low nine points, suffered its second-worst loss (24-9) of the season and blew a chance to clinch the NFC West title. Because of all that, you can expect the Cardinals to come out on a mission today at Detroit and put it on the pathetic Lions, who have lost three straight games by scores of 34-12, 23-13 and 48-3 to the Packers, Bengals and Ravens, respectively. Last week’s loss in Baltimore as a two-touchdown underdog was as ugly as it gets, as Detroit got outgained 548-229, giving up 308 rushing yards. Daunte Culpepper played quarterback for the injured Matthew Stafford and was predictably a disaster (16-for-34, 135 yards, two INTs). Good news for the Cardinals’ defense – which is just two weeks removed from picking off Brett Favre twice and holding Adrian Peterson to 19 rushing yards – is Culpepper is getting the starting nod again today. And he won’t have his best RB, as Kevin Smith is out (also, Pro Bowl WR Calvin Johnson continues to nurse an injury). … Last week’s turnover-fest aside, the Cardinals boast one of the most explosive, productive offenses in the league. Conversely, the Lions are dead last in the NFL in scoring defense (31.2 ppg allowed) and total defense (400.5 ypg allowed). And with or without Stafford, Detroit’s offense is awful, averaging barely 16 points and just 297 total yards per game, and they have the second-worst turnover margin (minus-11). … Despite the loss in San Francisco, Arizona is still 13-5 ATS in its last 18 overall and 5-2 SU and ATS on the road this year (6-2 SU and ATS on the road going back to last year’s playoffs), and it has cashed in four straight games after a SU loss and four straight after a non-cover (Arizona hasn’t had back-to-back non-covers all year). Meanwhile, Detroit is 3-9-1 ATS overall, 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight, 3-12 ATS in its last 15 at home and 1-4-1 ATS in its last six as a double-digit underdog
49ers
BREAKDOWN: The 49ers have just one win in six road games – on opening day at Arizona – but they’ve been very competitive in their five road losses, none of which have been by more than six points. In fact, those five losses were by a total of 19 points, including a three-point last-second defeat at Minnesota as a seven-point underdog; a four-point loss at Indianapolis as a 13-point ‘dog; and that six-point setback at Green Bay as a six-point pup. Obviously, the Vikings, Colts and Packers are all playoff teams, as are the Cardinals, whom San Francisco beat twice (including Monday’s 24-9 home rout in which the defense forced seven turnovers) … The 49ers are 8-3-2 ATS on the season, 3-1-2 ATS on the road (only non-cover was a three-point loss at Seattle as a one-point favorite) and 4-0-2 ATS as an underdog. Since last year, the Niners are on an 8-1-2 ATS roll when catching points. … Philadelphia is riding a four-game winning streak (3-1 ATS), but it has failed to cover in its last two home games (four-point loss to Dallas; three-point win over Washington as a 9½-point favorite). … The 49ers’ defense has been stout of late (13.6 ppg last five games), but Philadelphia has given up 31, 20, 24 and 38 points in four of its last five games, including 38 points and 500-plus yards in last week’s game at the Giants. Lastly, the Eagles have just one win of more than seven points in their last six contests, and that was against the Matt Ryan-less Falcons, while six of the 49ers’ last eight games were decided by a TD or less (and the only two that weren’t, San Francisco won outright).
Seahawks
BREAKDOWN: The last time a team from Florida traveled all the way to Seattle, it lost 41-0. That team was the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are a billion times better than the woeful, one-win Buccaneers. In fact, four of Seattle’s five wins this season have come at home, and the Seahawks cashed in all four of those games. One was against the 49ers two weeks ago (20-17 as a one-point underdog), and San Francisco showed on Monday against Arizona that it is a quality team. Seattle’s other three home victories were double-digit routs of the aforementioned Jaguars, plus NFL bottom-feeders Detroit (32-20) and St. Louis (28-0). Well, Tampa Bay certainly qualifies as a bottom-feeder. Not only are the Bucs 1-12 on the season, they’re 1-16 SU (and just 5-12 ATS) going back to last December. Since upsetting Green Bay 38-28 at home after their bye week, the Bucs have lost five in a row, including three double-digit setbacks to New Orleans (38-7 at home), Carolina (16-6 on the road) and the Jets last week (26-3) … Tampa’s offense is a joke, ranking 29th out of 32 teams in points scored (14.6 per game) and 28th in total yards (278.2 ypg). It has scored 17 points or less in eight of its last 11 contests, failing to crack double digits in three of the last four. And the Bucs’ defense isn’t any better, giving up 27.4 ppg (only the Lions and Rams give up more). … With blowout wins over the Rams (twice) and Lions, Seattle has proven that, while it is no longer an elite team, it can dominate inferior competition. It will do so again here with an easy victory as the Seahawks improve on impressive ATS runs of 6-2-1 at home, 5-1 as a favorite, 10-3 as a home favorite and 5-1 against losing teams.
Brett Atkins
Sunday
20 Dime NFL Sunday Night Sure Thing - MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Minnesota has a high-scoring offense and a defense that is throttling the opposition, both bad news items for the Panthers. The Vikings average 29.9 points a game and allow just 18.7. Carolina has scored 17 points or less in each of its last four games and manage just 17.3 points a game. Lay the chalk and play the Vikings tonight as they win thsi one by 17.
10 Dime NFL Power Play - SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
The Chargers are the hottest team in the NFL, winning eight straight and pushing their way to the No. 2 spot in the AFC playoffs. They are getting great play from QB Philip Rivers and they've won 16 straight (11-5 ATS) December games. Cincinnati has too much on its mind to get this one. They got drilled by the Vikings a week ago, had a WR die on Thursday and now have to travel cross-country for this one. Look for San Diego to win this one by 14 at least.
Sunday
20 Dime NFL Sunday Night Sure Thing - MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Minnesota has a high-scoring offense and a defense that is throttling the opposition, both bad news items for the Panthers. The Vikings average 29.9 points a game and allow just 18.7. Carolina has scored 17 points or less in each of its last four games and manage just 17.3 points a game. Lay the chalk and play the Vikings tonight as they win thsi one by 17.
10 Dime NFL Power Play - SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
The Chargers are the hottest team in the NFL, winning eight straight and pushing their way to the No. 2 spot in the AFC playoffs. They are getting great play from QB Philip Rivers and they've won 16 straight (11-5 ATS) December games. Cincinnati has too much on its mind to get this one. They got drilled by the Vikings a week ago, had a WR die on Thursday and now have to travel cross-country for this one. Look for San Diego to win this one by 14 at least.
Joel Tyson
SUNDAY'S SELECTIONS
600♦ - Arizona Cardinals minus the points
Detroit should just throw in the towel, as last week's 48-3 debacle in Baltimore puts them at 2-7 against the spread this season when getting double-digits!
2-7 WITH DOUBLE-DIGITS!!!!
That is almost impossible to believe an NFL team in 2009 can be installed as a double-digit underdog 9 times in 13 games.Arizona is off that horrid Monday night 7 turnover effort at San Francisco, and still hasn't clinched the West Division title yet. Today the Cardinals shred the porous Detroit defense, and come up with the double-digit road win, and cover.
200♦ - San Francisco 49ers plus the points
Saturday's snow storm has forced this game to be moved back to a 4pm eastern kick-off, and I just get the feeling the Niners will be game today against the Eagles.Philly may get their win, but their downfield burner Desean Jackson will be neutralized by the weather, and it should be noted that San Francisco is on an 8-0-1 against the spread run when getting points under Mike Singletary.This team prefers being the underdog, they seem to thrive with the chip on their shoulder, and nothing to lose.Philly knows that Dallas was a winner last night in New Orleans, so the pressure will be on the Eagles to close this one out, but Philadelphia has failed their last pair of home games against the spread, and they will fail here.
Take the Niners.
SUNDAY'S SELECTIONS
600♦ - Arizona Cardinals minus the points
Detroit should just throw in the towel, as last week's 48-3 debacle in Baltimore puts them at 2-7 against the spread this season when getting double-digits!
2-7 WITH DOUBLE-DIGITS!!!!
That is almost impossible to believe an NFL team in 2009 can be installed as a double-digit underdog 9 times in 13 games.Arizona is off that horrid Monday night 7 turnover effort at San Francisco, and still hasn't clinched the West Division title yet. Today the Cardinals shred the porous Detroit defense, and come up with the double-digit road win, and cover.
200♦ - San Francisco 49ers plus the points
Saturday's snow storm has forced this game to be moved back to a 4pm eastern kick-off, and I just get the feeling the Niners will be game today against the Eagles.Philly may get their win, but their downfield burner Desean Jackson will be neutralized by the weather, and it should be noted that San Francisco is on an 8-0-1 against the spread run when getting points under Mike Singletary.This team prefers being the underdog, they seem to thrive with the chip on their shoulder, and nothing to lose.Philly knows that Dallas was a winner last night in New Orleans, so the pressure will be on the Eagles to close this one out, but Philadelphia has failed their last pair of home games against the spread, and they will fail here.
Take the Niners.
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Newsletters Dec 15-Dec 23
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DCI
Aeropostale MSG Holiday Festival
1st Round at Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
Cornell 77, Davidson 71
ST. JOHN'S 70, Hofstra 62
Las Vegas Holiday Hoops Classic
Final Round at South Point Arena, Las Vegas, NV
South Florida 60, San Diego 57
Southern Illinois 76, San Francisco 62
Atlantic Coast Conference
GEORGIA TECH 70, Florida State 66
WAKE FOREST 78, NC State 69
Sun Belt Conference
NORTH TEXAS 83, Florida International 67
Ualr 68, ARKANSAS STATE 67
Non-Conference
AKRON 75, Saint Francis (Pa.) 50
AUBURN 80, Sam Houston State 69
BAYLOR 91, UT Arlington 66
Binghamton 65, MARIST 63
BOSTON COLLEGE 80, Bryant 50
Charlotte 73, WINTHROP 63
COLORADO STATE 73, Northern Arizona 63
CONNECTICUT 82, Ucf 61
IOWA STATE 70, Bradley 61
KENT STATE 69, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 62
Loyola (Chicago) 73, SIU EDWARDSVILLE 63
MARSHALL 81, High Point 63
NEW HAMPSHIRE 64, Dartmouth 52
Princeton 59, MAINE 56
RHODE ISLAND 81, Fairfield 68
SACRED HEART 71, Stony Brook 69
SAINT JOSEPH'S 77, Lehigh 64
TOWSON 66, Hampton 61
UT San Antonio 72, COLGATE 58
VERMONT 81, Delaware 63
WYOMING 89, South Dakota 81
Aeropostale MSG Holiday Festival
1st Round at Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
Cornell 77, Davidson 71
ST. JOHN'S 70, Hofstra 62
Las Vegas Holiday Hoops Classic
Final Round at South Point Arena, Las Vegas, NV
South Florida 60, San Diego 57
Southern Illinois 76, San Francisco 62
Atlantic Coast Conference
GEORGIA TECH 70, Florida State 66
WAKE FOREST 78, NC State 69
Sun Belt Conference
NORTH TEXAS 83, Florida International 67
Ualr 68, ARKANSAS STATE 67
Non-Conference
AKRON 75, Saint Francis (Pa.) 50
AUBURN 80, Sam Houston State 69
BAYLOR 91, UT Arlington 66
Binghamton 65, MARIST 63
BOSTON COLLEGE 80, Bryant 50
Charlotte 73, WINTHROP 63
COLORADO STATE 73, Northern Arizona 63
CONNECTICUT 82, Ucf 61
IOWA STATE 70, Bradley 61
KENT STATE 69, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 62
Loyola (Chicago) 73, SIU EDWARDSVILLE 63
MARSHALL 81, High Point 63
NEW HAMPSHIRE 64, Dartmouth 52
Princeton 59, MAINE 56
RHODE ISLAND 81, Fairfield 68
SACRED HEART 71, Stony Brook 69
SAINT JOSEPH'S 77, Lehigh 64
TOWSON 66, Hampton 61
UT San Antonio 72, COLGATE 58
VERMONT 81, Delaware 63
WYOMING 89, South Dakota 81
vegas runner
triple-dime bet 319 CLE / 320 KAN Over 37.0 Bodog
Analysis:
*** NFL 3* "TRUE STEAM" GAME OF THE WEEK ***
These are the kind of "Steam" Bets that I've always loved betting the most...even back when I was just a runner, because they were the ones that were concealed so well...And you really had to have some solid sources to uncover...
And that's the case again with this bet...because the line move looks so insignificant...But I can tell you that nothing could be further from the truth...
This line first went up at 36.5, and within 5 minutes...the books were willing to ta~ke it up to the "Key Number" of 37...
But what we saw as a few days past...was that the books, in anticipation of the public really liking the Under...went ahead and dropped it back to 36.5...And this time, the Wiseguys decided to work the market some...by leaving it alone...
This gave the books plenty of confidence that they would now only have to deal with the Betting Public...So in an effort to give them the "worst of it"...we saw a handful drop their lines even lower...And that's when the Wiseguys decided, it was once again time to Unload...
And with so many more "Outs" offering lines for this weekend's games...the Outfits really went to work and bet the OVER everywhere they could...
In fact, they bet it enough...that even with so much Under money expected by the public come game-day...the books were still willing to take it back to that "Key Total" of 37...Higher than their opener...
Again, these are the "moves" that very few pick up on, without having a solid source...
Fortunately for us, we have plenty of sources who are actually behind a lot of these moves...Which is why we can be sure that the Outfits love the Over...
Finally, I made sure to check the forcast...because we all know that the mention of snow will force a huge adjustment downwards...But it appears that won't be a problem on Sunday...
Don't fear seeing this line drop some on game-day, because we all know that public money outweighs wiseguy money, especially in the NFL...And since it appears that the Outfits got down as much as they wanted on this Under...the books may feel confident enough that they won't look to take another position...and therefore lower the Total, in an attempt to give the public the worst of it...
But rest assured, you and I both...are on the same side that the Betting Syndicates will be rooting for come Sunday...And with enough public money on the Under...we just may have the Books rooting in that Over for us as well...VR
triple-dime bet 319 CLE / 320 KAN Over 37.0 Bodog
Analysis:
*** NFL 3* "TRUE STEAM" GAME OF THE WEEK ***
These are the kind of "Steam" Bets that I've always loved betting the most...even back when I was just a runner, because they were the ones that were concealed so well...And you really had to have some solid sources to uncover...
And that's the case again with this bet...because the line move looks so insignificant...But I can tell you that nothing could be further from the truth...
This line first went up at 36.5, and within 5 minutes...the books were willing to ta~ke it up to the "Key Number" of 37...
But what we saw as a few days past...was that the books, in anticipation of the public really liking the Under...went ahead and dropped it back to 36.5...And this time, the Wiseguys decided to work the market some...by leaving it alone...
This gave the books plenty of confidence that they would now only have to deal with the Betting Public...So in an effort to give them the "worst of it"...we saw a handful drop their lines even lower...And that's when the Wiseguys decided, it was once again time to Unload...
And with so many more "Outs" offering lines for this weekend's games...the Outfits really went to work and bet the OVER everywhere they could...
In fact, they bet it enough...that even with so much Under money expected by the public come game-day...the books were still willing to take it back to that "Key Total" of 37...Higher than their opener...
Again, these are the "moves" that very few pick up on, without having a solid source...
Fortunately for us, we have plenty of sources who are actually behind a lot of these moves...Which is why we can be sure that the Outfits love the Over...
Finally, I made sure to check the forcast...because we all know that the mention of snow will force a huge adjustment downwards...But it appears that won't be a problem on Sunday...
Don't fear seeing this line drop some on game-day, because we all know that public money outweighs wiseguy money, especially in the NFL...And since it appears that the Outfits got down as much as they wanted on this Under...the books may feel confident enough that they won't look to take another position...and therefore lower the Total, in an attempt to give the public the worst of it...
But rest assured, you and I both...are on the same side that the Betting Syndicates will be rooting for come Sunday...And with enough public money on the Under...we just may have the Books rooting in that Over for us as well...VR
Pick 'n' Roll: Today's best NBA bets
New Orleans Hornets at Toronto Raptors (-2.5, 205)
The Raptors aren’t exactly a franchise striking fear into the hearts of opponents this season. While the Dinos can put up the points, ranking sixth in the NBA in scoring, the defense has been as soft as Santa’s behind.
"Really hard to find the words," Hedo Turkoglu told the Toronto Sun following a loss to the Heat this week. "We did not do much on defense and had too many turnovers. We have to learn from these types of games."
Toronto has allowed more than 106 points per game this month, going 5-6 in this stretch and playing over the total in three straight games, including Friday’s win over the lowly New Jersey Nets.
The Raptors still gave up 95 points to a Nets team that averages under 90 points a night. Toronto’s opponents are shooting almost 48 percent from the field and have dominated the Raptors on the glass, scoring plenty of put-backs and second-chance buckets.
Pick: Over
Cleveland Cavaliers at Dallas Mavericks (N/A, 193)
The great thing about being an NBA beat writer is being able to call it how you see it. And the Cleveland Plain Dealer’s Brian Windhorst isn’t holding anything back. Well, maybe his vomit.
The Cavs are on a five-game winning stretch, picking up their most recent victory over the Milwaukee Bucks in ugly fashion Thursday night. Cleveland blew a 15-point lead in the last six minutes of the game to hand bettors who gave the 9.5 points a slap in the face. Windhorst points out that the Cavs did not record an assist in the final 12 minutes of the game and shot a dismal 4-of-17 from the field.
He believes these ugly games are becoming all too common. Defensive lulls, offensive blackouts and turnovers, of which the Cavaliers made 15 of on Thursday, are spoiling the holiday season for anyone putting plays down on Cleveland.
The defense is the only thing keeping Cleveland atop the league. It is giving up under 93 points per game and allowing opponents to shoot just 40 percent from the floor in the last 10 games. The Cavaliers are 5-5 ATS in the span but have covered just twice in the last seven games.
Pick: Dallas
New Orleans Hornets at Toronto Raptors (-2.5, 205)
The Raptors aren’t exactly a franchise striking fear into the hearts of opponents this season. While the Dinos can put up the points, ranking sixth in the NBA in scoring, the defense has been as soft as Santa’s behind.
"Really hard to find the words," Hedo Turkoglu told the Toronto Sun following a loss to the Heat this week. "We did not do much on defense and had too many turnovers. We have to learn from these types of games."
Toronto has allowed more than 106 points per game this month, going 5-6 in this stretch and playing over the total in three straight games, including Friday’s win over the lowly New Jersey Nets.
The Raptors still gave up 95 points to a Nets team that averages under 90 points a night. Toronto’s opponents are shooting almost 48 percent from the field and have dominated the Raptors on the glass, scoring plenty of put-backs and second-chance buckets.
Pick: Over
Cleveland Cavaliers at Dallas Mavericks (N/A, 193)
The great thing about being an NBA beat writer is being able to call it how you see it. And the Cleveland Plain Dealer’s Brian Windhorst isn’t holding anything back. Well, maybe his vomit.
The Cavs are on a five-game winning stretch, picking up their most recent victory over the Milwaukee Bucks in ugly fashion Thursday night. Cleveland blew a 15-point lead in the last six minutes of the game to hand bettors who gave the 9.5 points a slap in the face. Windhorst points out that the Cavs did not record an assist in the final 12 minutes of the game and shot a dismal 4-of-17 from the field.
He believes these ugly games are becoming all too common. Defensive lulls, offensive blackouts and turnovers, of which the Cavaliers made 15 of on Thursday, are spoiling the holiday season for anyone putting plays down on Cleveland.
The defense is the only thing keeping Cleveland atop the league. It is giving up under 93 points per game and allowing opponents to shoot just 40 percent from the floor in the last 10 games. The Cavaliers are 5-5 ATS in the span but have covered just twice in the last seven games.
Pick: Dallas
Ice picks: Today's best NHL bets
Detroit Red Wings at Chicago Blackhawks (-200, 5.5)
The Red Wings were already having a hard enough time putting the biscuit in the basket with a banged up roster. Now, Detroit will have to find ways to score without top gun Henrik Zetterberg, who will miss the next two weeks with a shoulder separation.
Zetterberg injured himself in the Red Wings 3-0 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning Thursday. The Swedish sniper leads the team in scoring with 10 goals and 22 assists in his 34 games this year. As a team, Detroit is averaging just 2.7 goals a game and has played under the total in seven of their last 10 contests.
The Red Wings roster has been decimated by injuries this season. Along with Zetterberg, they are missing Johan Franzen, Valtteri Filppula, Jason Williams, Niklas Kronwall, Daniel Cleary, Darren Helm and Jonathan Ericsson.
They face a Chicago Blackhawks squad Sunday that also has a tendency to keep scores low. The Blackhawks have finished below the total in eight of their last 10 contests.
Pick: Under
St. Louis Blues at Vancouver Canucks (-200, 5.5)
After an embarrassing loss Friday night, the Blues can’t get wait to get out of St. Louis.
The Blues played sloppy hockey and constantly gave away the puck, leading to a 6-2 flogging from the Tampa Bay Lightning at home. The loss dropped St. Louis to a dismal 6-11-1-1 inside the Scottrade Center and was the team’s third loss in the past four games.
“I would almost call this loss tonight dumb,” Blues coach Andy Murray told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. “It was a dumb loss. To me, the game against Edmonton (a 5-3 loss on Dec. 11) ... in our own building, we got pushed around. Tonight we just played dumb.”
Now, the Blues hit the bricks for the next three games, starting in Vancouver Sunday. The Canucks have one of the best home records in hockey, going 14-5 inside GM Place. They are currently on an eight-game home stand, going 4-1 in the first five games of this stretch.
Pick: Vancouver
Detroit Red Wings at Chicago Blackhawks (-200, 5.5)
The Red Wings were already having a hard enough time putting the biscuit in the basket with a banged up roster. Now, Detroit will have to find ways to score without top gun Henrik Zetterberg, who will miss the next two weeks with a shoulder separation.
Zetterberg injured himself in the Red Wings 3-0 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning Thursday. The Swedish sniper leads the team in scoring with 10 goals and 22 assists in his 34 games this year. As a team, Detroit is averaging just 2.7 goals a game and has played under the total in seven of their last 10 contests.
The Red Wings roster has been decimated by injuries this season. Along with Zetterberg, they are missing Johan Franzen, Valtteri Filppula, Jason Williams, Niklas Kronwall, Daniel Cleary, Darren Helm and Jonathan Ericsson.
They face a Chicago Blackhawks squad Sunday that also has a tendency to keep scores low. The Blackhawks have finished below the total in eight of their last 10 contests.
Pick: Under
St. Louis Blues at Vancouver Canucks (-200, 5.5)
After an embarrassing loss Friday night, the Blues can’t get wait to get out of St. Louis.
The Blues played sloppy hockey and constantly gave away the puck, leading to a 6-2 flogging from the Tampa Bay Lightning at home. The loss dropped St. Louis to a dismal 6-11-1-1 inside the Scottrade Center and was the team’s third loss in the past four games.
“I would almost call this loss tonight dumb,” Blues coach Andy Murray told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. “It was a dumb loss. To me, the game against Edmonton (a 5-3 loss on Dec. 11) ... in our own building, we got pushed around. Tonight we just played dumb.”
Now, the Blues hit the bricks for the next three games, starting in Vancouver Sunday. The Canucks have one of the best home records in hockey, going 14-5 inside GM Place. They are currently on an eight-game home stand, going 4-1 in the first five games of this stretch.
Pick: Vancouver
Pete Angelo
Sunday's Winner ...
600♦ N.Y. JETS -
Have you seen the snowstorm back East? Crazy white everywhere, and I haven't said that since attending a Playboy party at the Palms Hotel during Super Bowl weekend last season - and I'm not talking about snow! You're telling me a dome-based football team is going to head Northeast to play in brutal weather with a makshift lineup? I'll lay the chalk with pleasure. Look for the Jets' defense and its ground game to be called upon heavily in this one.I've been impressed by Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis the entire season, as he's made life miserable for the likes of Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, the Saints' receiving corps and Andre Johnson. He's a neutralizer, and if Chris Redman starts at quarterback for Atlanta, Revis' task gets easier. The weather is in the home team's favor in the trenches as well, so look for blitz-happy Rex Ryan to haunt whomever is under center.
The weather will play an even bigger impact on whether or not Michael Turner, the Falcons' running back, will start, as he is listed as questionable with an ankle injury. If Turner or quarterback Matt Ryan misses this game, the Jets have no excuse for missing out on an easy blowout.The playoffs are a stretch to think about, but as long as you're still in it, you play like it. And I expect to see one of the Jets' better games today
Sunday's Winner ...
600♦ N.Y. JETS -
Have you seen the snowstorm back East? Crazy white everywhere, and I haven't said that since attending a Playboy party at the Palms Hotel during Super Bowl weekend last season - and I'm not talking about snow! You're telling me a dome-based football team is going to head Northeast to play in brutal weather with a makshift lineup? I'll lay the chalk with pleasure. Look for the Jets' defense and its ground game to be called upon heavily in this one.I've been impressed by Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis the entire season, as he's made life miserable for the likes of Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, the Saints' receiving corps and Andre Johnson. He's a neutralizer, and if Chris Redman starts at quarterback for Atlanta, Revis' task gets easier. The weather is in the home team's favor in the trenches as well, so look for blitz-happy Rex Ryan to haunt whomever is under center.
The weather will play an even bigger impact on whether or not Michael Turner, the Falcons' running back, will start, as he is listed as questionable with an ankle injury. If Turner or quarterback Matt Ryan misses this game, the Jets have no excuse for missing out on an easy blowout.The playoffs are a stretch to think about, but as long as you're still in it, you play like it. And I expect to see one of the Jets' better games today
Jay McNeil
Sunday's plays
25 Dime -- Dolphins (plus points vs. TITANS)
DOLPHINS
Miami has won four of its last five games and is trying to make a late-season playoff push, Ricky Williams has averaged more than 100 yards rushing over the past five games and QB Chad Henne has become more of a playmaker as the season has progressed, completing 61.7 percent of his throws for 555 yards over the past two weeks. Tennessee QB Vince Young likely will play today, but he is bothered by a sore right hamstring that will limit his ability to move outside the pocket, and the Titans are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.
25 Dime -- Texans (minus points vs. RAMS)
Texans
Houston is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games in December and 7-3 ATS in its last 10 road games, and the Texans' fourth-ranked passing game got going in a big way last week in a 34-7 victory over Seattle and now faces a St. Louis team that allows 27.8 points per game. The Rams have lost 22 of their last 23 games, are 8-19 ATS in their last 27 home games and have an offense that could be headed by rookie QB Keith Null and will be without both of its starting guards.
25 Dime -- SEAHAWKS (minus points vs. Buccaneers)
SEAHAWKS
Seattle was embarrassed last week in Houston and coach Jim Mora is looking for his team to give a strong showing at home, where the Seahawks are 4-2 this season, against a Tampa Bay team that has lost 16 of its last 17 games and scored just nine points over the past two weeks. The Seahawks are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine home games and 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite, and the Buccaneers are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games overall, 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog and 0-4 ATS in their last four games in December.
Sunday's plays
25 Dime -- Dolphins (plus points vs. TITANS)
DOLPHINS
Miami has won four of its last five games and is trying to make a late-season playoff push, Ricky Williams has averaged more than 100 yards rushing over the past five games and QB Chad Henne has become more of a playmaker as the season has progressed, completing 61.7 percent of his throws for 555 yards over the past two weeks. Tennessee QB Vince Young likely will play today, but he is bothered by a sore right hamstring that will limit his ability to move outside the pocket, and the Titans are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.
25 Dime -- Texans (minus points vs. RAMS)
Texans
Houston is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games in December and 7-3 ATS in its last 10 road games, and the Texans' fourth-ranked passing game got going in a big way last week in a 34-7 victory over Seattle and now faces a St. Louis team that allows 27.8 points per game. The Rams have lost 22 of their last 23 games, are 8-19 ATS in their last 27 home games and have an offense that could be headed by rookie QB Keith Null and will be without both of its starting guards.
25 Dime -- SEAHAWKS (minus points vs. Buccaneers)
SEAHAWKS
Seattle was embarrassed last week in Houston and coach Jim Mora is looking for his team to give a strong showing at home, where the Seahawks are 4-2 this season, against a Tampa Bay team that has lost 16 of its last 17 games and scored just nine points over the past two weeks. The Seahawks are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine home games and 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite, and the Buccaneers are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games overall, 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog and 0-4 ATS in their last four games in December.
