STEPHEN NOVER
11-5 NFL RUN (69%)
25 NOV 3-0
26 NOV 2-0
29 NOV 1-0
02 DEC 1-2
03 DEC 0-1
06 DEC 1-0
09 DEC 2-1
10 DEC 1-0
13 DEC 0-1
16 DEC
3* Pittsburgh -1.5 over Dallas
2* Denver/Baltimore Over 48
2* Colts/Houston Under 48
STEPHEN NOVER
11-5 NFL RUN (69%)
25 NOV 3-0
26 NOV 2-0
29 NOV 1-0
02 DEC 1-2
03 DEC 0-1
06 DEC 1-0
09 DEC 2-1
10 DEC 1-0
13 DEC 0-1
16 DEC
3* Pittsburgh -1.5 over Dallas
2* Denver/Baltimore Over 48
2* Colts/Houston Under 48
MTi’s Newsletter Side and Total are now 21-2-1 ATS & OU over the last 12 weeks
MTi’s Newsletter Side Play
4-Star BUFFALO +5.5 over Seattle – The Cardinals made the Seahawks look a lot better than they are last week and the Seahawks are starting to think that they are very good as well. Seattle has been terrible off a big win, so we’ll grab the points.
The Seahawks are 0-20 ATS (-9.7 ppg) since 2003 when they are off a game as a favorite of more than four points in which they benefited from a positive takeaway margin. The SDQL text is:
p:line<-4 and p:TOM<=-1 and team=Seahawks and season>=2003
Seattle is 0-1 ATS in this spot this season, losing as a 3-point favorite in Miami after whipping the Jets 28-7.
Also, the Seahawks are 0-14 ATS after any twenty-plus point win, as can be seen with this SDQL text:
team=Seahawks and A and p:margin>=20 and 20031123<=date
Note that the Seahawks are 0-10 straight up their last ten in this spot.
It is also true that Seattle is 0-9 ATS (-9.1 ppg) as a road favorite when they scored more points than expected in each of their last two games.
The last bit of evidence for a play against the Seahawks is that they are in a divisional sandwich, with a game against the 49ers next week. Seattle is 0-10 ATS as a favorite vs a non-divisional opponent when they faced a divisional opponent last week and they have another divisional opponent next week, as long as their next divisional opponent is not six-plus games below 500.
The Bills dominated the Rams last week, but lost simply because they got too conservative at the end of the game. In a misguided attempt to run out the clock, the ran the ball into the middle twice and threw on third down -- a move that did not surprise the Rams or anyone else in the stadium. They were forced to punt the ball away and then allowed the late scoring drive. They should have a nothing-to-lose attitude here, and this should be enough to handle the fat and happy Seahawks who will be looking ahead to their BIG game in San Francisco next week. Grab the points.
MTi’s FORECAST: BUFFALO 24 Seattle 21
MTi’s Totals Play of the Week
4-Star Jacksonville at MIAMI OVER 37 – In the NFL, as well as the NBA, to be successful at handicapping totals, you have to understand a team’s philosophy and game strategy. Unlike many other teams in the NFL (for example the Bills), the Jaguars employ good risk-management strategy. When they are a significant underdog, they will take risks on both offense and defense knowing they are not going to beat their opponent on talent alone. They need big plays on offense and/or defense to pull the upset. They will blitz, the safeties will “jump” a route, they will throw deep on third and short etc. All of this leads to higher-scoring games. In fact, this was exactly our logic on our top Totals Play on KillerCappers.com last week, which was Seattle and Arizona OVER 35.5. We expected that the Cardinals would be aggressive on offense based on past results and this led to a lot of Seattle TDs.
Over their last six games, the Jaguars have been more than a three-point dog three times and a three-point dog or less three times. All three games in which they were a three-point dog or more went OVER and the other three stayed UNDER.
Jacksonville did not have a good offensive performance last week, but this actually points to the OVER. The league is a remarkable 54-24-1 OU when they are off a loss in which they scored 14 or fewer points and punted the ball away at least 8 times. The SDQL text is:
points<=14 and 8<=punts and 20081221<=date and p:L
The Jaguars themselves are 8-0 OU (+9.2 ppg) on the road after a home loss as a dog in which they failed on at least two red zone attempts and 7-0 OU (+13.3 ppg) after stopping their opponent on at least 60% of their third down attempts.
The Dolphins are 12-0 OU at home after a road loss in which they stopped their opponent on at least two red zone attempts, including 2-0 OU this season, with both games going over by at least a TD.
It won’t take much to get over this number.
MTi’s FORECAST: MIAMI 24 Jacksonville 21
MTi’s Newsletter Side Play
4-Star BUFFALO +5.5 over Seattle – The Cardinals made the Seahawks look a lot better than they are last week and the Seahawks are starting to think that they are very good as well. Seattle has been terrible off a big win, so we’ll grab the points.
The Seahawks are 0-20 ATS (-9.7 ppg) since 2003 when they are off a game as a favorite of more than four points in which they benefited from a positive takeaway margin. The SDQL text is:
p:line<-4 and p:TOM<=-1 and team=Seahawks and season>=2003
Seattle is 0-1 ATS in this spot this season, losing as a 3-point favorite in Miami after whipping the Jets 28-7.
Also, the Seahawks are 0-14 ATS after any twenty-plus point win, as can be seen with this SDQL text:
team=Seahawks and A and p:margin>=20 and 20031123<=date
Note that the Seahawks are 0-10 straight up their last ten in this spot.
It is also true that Seattle is 0-9 ATS (-9.1 ppg) as a road favorite when they scored more points than expected in each of their last two games.
The last bit of evidence for a play against the Seahawks is that they are in a divisional sandwich, with a game against the 49ers next week. Seattle is 0-10 ATS as a favorite vs a non-divisional opponent when they faced a divisional opponent last week and they have another divisional opponent next week, as long as their next divisional opponent is not six-plus games below 500.
The Bills dominated the Rams last week, but lost simply because they got too conservative at the end of the game. In a misguided attempt to run out the clock, the ran the ball into the middle twice and threw on third down -- a move that did not surprise the Rams or anyone else in the stadium. They were forced to punt the ball away and then allowed the late scoring drive. They should have a nothing-to-lose attitude here, and this should be enough to handle the fat and happy Seahawks who will be looking ahead to their BIG game in San Francisco next week. Grab the points.
MTi’s FORECAST: BUFFALO 24 Seattle 21
MTi’s Totals Play of the Week
4-Star Jacksonville at MIAMI OVER 37 – In the NFL, as well as the NBA, to be successful at handicapping totals, you have to understand a team’s philosophy and game strategy. Unlike many other teams in the NFL (for example the Bills), the Jaguars employ good risk-management strategy. When they are a significant underdog, they will take risks on both offense and defense knowing they are not going to beat their opponent on talent alone. They need big plays on offense and/or defense to pull the upset. They will blitz, the safeties will “jump” a route, they will throw deep on third and short etc. All of this leads to higher-scoring games. In fact, this was exactly our logic on our top Totals Play on KillerCappers.com last week, which was Seattle and Arizona OVER 35.5. We expected that the Cardinals would be aggressive on offense based on past results and this led to a lot of Seattle TDs.
Over their last six games, the Jaguars have been more than a three-point dog three times and a three-point dog or less three times. All three games in which they were a three-point dog or more went OVER and the other three stayed UNDER.
Jacksonville did not have a good offensive performance last week, but this actually points to the OVER. The league is a remarkable 54-24-1 OU when they are off a loss in which they scored 14 or fewer points and punted the ball away at least 8 times. The SDQL text is:
points<=14 and 8<=punts and 20081221<=date and p:L
The Jaguars themselves are 8-0 OU (+9.2 ppg) on the road after a home loss as a dog in which they failed on at least two red zone attempts and 7-0 OU (+13.3 ppg) after stopping their opponent on at least 60% of their third down attempts.
The Dolphins are 12-0 OU at home after a road loss in which they stopped their opponent on at least two red zone attempts, including 2-0 OU this season, with both games going over by at least a TD.
It won’t take much to get over this number.
MTi’s FORECAST: MIAMI 24 Jacksonville 21
NBA
Hot Teams
-- Portland won five of last six home games (2-3-1 as HF).
Cold Teams
-- Toronto lost six of last seven games (4-2 as HU). Rockets lost their last six road games (2-6-1 on road, all as dog).
-- 76ers lost five of last seven games, but won four of last six at home. Lakers lost six of last eight games (3-7-1 vs spread on road).
-- Sacramento lost its last three games by 10-13-23 points (2-4 as HU). Nuggets lost six of last eight road games (2-4 as AF).
-- Hornets lost their last six games (6-3-1 as AU).
Totals
-- Last four Toronto games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in Philly's last six games.
-- Seven of last ten Denver games went over the total.
-- Last three Portland games stayed under the total.
Hot Teams
-- Portland won five of last six home games (2-3-1 as HF).
Cold Teams
-- Toronto lost six of last seven games (4-2 as HU). Rockets lost their last six road games (2-6-1 on road, all as dog).
-- 76ers lost five of last seven games, but won four of last six at home. Lakers lost six of last eight games (3-7-1 vs spread on road).
-- Sacramento lost its last three games by 10-13-23 points (2-4 as HU). Nuggets lost six of last eight road games (2-4 as AF).
-- Hornets lost their last six games (6-3-1 as AU).
Totals
-- Last four Toronto games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in Philly's last six games.
-- Seven of last ten Denver games went over the total.
-- Last three Portland games stayed under the total.
[h=1]Today's NBA Picks[/h] [h=2]Houston at Toronto[/h] The Rockets look to take advantage of a Toronto team that is coming off a 95-74 win over Dallas and is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Houston is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Rockets favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: Houston (-3 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.
| SUNDAY, DECEMBER 16 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST |
| Game 801-802: Houston at Toronto (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston 118.665; Toronto 110.655 Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 8; 203 Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 3 1/2; 197 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Houston (-3 1/2); Over |
| Game 803-804: Denver at Sacramento (6:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Denver 118.448; Sacramento 111.688 Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 7; 199 Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 4 1/2; 203 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Denver (-4 1/2); Under |
| Game 805-806: LA Lakers at Philadelphia (6:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 117.369; Philadelphia 117.316 Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 192 Vegas Line & Total: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A |
| Game 807-808: New Orleans at Portland (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 112.098; Portland 118.810 Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 6 1/2; 190 Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 5 1/2; 187 Dunkel Pick: Portland (-5 1/2); Over |
[h=1]Today's NFL Picks[/h] [h=2]San Francisco at New England[/h] The Patriots look to build on their 3-0-1 ATS record in their last 4 games when playing on a Sunday following a Monday night game. New England is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Patriots favored by 12. Dunkel Pick: New England (-5). Here are all of this week's picks.
| SUNDAY, DECEMBER 16 Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST (12/12) |
| Game 303-304: Green Bay at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 132.138; Chicago 138.833 Dunkel Line: Chicago by 6 1/2; 46 Vegas Line: Green Bay by 3; 42 Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+3); Over |
| Game 305-306: NY Giants at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 136.551; Atlanta 140.528 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 4; 47 Vegas Line: Atlanta by 1; 51 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-1); Under |
| Game 307-308: Tampa Bay at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 135.326; New Orleans 132.828 Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2 1/2; 58 Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3 1/2; 53 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+3 1/2); Over |
| Game 309-310: Minnesota at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 125.974; St. Louis 135.615 Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 9 1/2; 42 Vegas Line: St. Louis by 1; 38 Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-1); Over |
| Game 311-312: Washington at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington 135.157; Cleveland 131.638 Dunkel Line: Washington by 3 1/2; 37 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A |
| Game 313-314: Jacksonville at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 124.161; Miami 119.081 Dunkel Line: Miami by 5; 42 Vegas Line: Miami by 7; 37 Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+7); Over |
| Game 315-316: Denver at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Denver 138.882; Baltimore 138.990 Dunkel Line: Even; 44 Vegas Line: Denver by 3; 48 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+3); Under |
| Game 317-318: Indianapolis at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 129.230; Houston 140.439 Dunkel Line: Houston by 11; 45 Vegas Line: Houston by 7 1/2; 48 Dunkel Pick: Houston (-7 1/2); Under |
| Game 319-320: Carolina at San Diego (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 130.645; San Diego 130.390 Dunkel Line: Even; 51 Vegas Line: San Diego by 3; 45 Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+3); Over |
| Game 321-322: Seattle at Buffalo (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 138.522; Buffalo 129.411 Dunkel Line: Seattle by 9; 39 Vegas Line: Seattle by 5; 43 Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-5); Under |
| Game 323-324: Detroit at Arizona (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 129.120; Arizona 125.470 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 3 1/2; 48 Vegas Line: Detroit by 6; 43 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+6); Over |
| Game 325-326: Pittsburgh at Dallas (4:25 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 129.619; Dallas 134.881 Dunkel Line: Dallas by 5 1/2; 40 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 2; 44 Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+2); Under |
| Game 327-328: Kansas City at Oakland (4:25 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 124.761; Oakland 122.374 Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 2 1/2; 46 Vegas Line: Oakland by 3; 43 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+3); Over |
| Game 329-330: San Francisco at New England (8:20 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 138.793; New England 150.743 Dunkel Line: New England by 12; 45 Vegas Line: New England by 5; 47 1/2 Dunkel Pick: New England (-5); Under |
DCI College Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index
12/16/12 Predictions
Season
Straight Up: 1110-341 (.765)
ATS: 443-463 (.489)
ATS Vary Units: 1636-1848 (.470)
Over/Under: 131-115 (.533)
Over/Under Vary Units: 181-185 (.495)
Non-Conference
ARKANSAS STATE 77, Austin Peay 67
BOSTON COLLEGE 65, New Hampshire 57
BOSTON U. 68, Quinnipiac 62
Cal State Fullerton 76, TEXAS SOUTHERN 72
Charlotte 78, KENNESAW STATE 55
DePAUL 77, Northern Illinois 57
FAIRFIELD 60, Drexel 59
ILLINOIS 77, Eastern Kentucky 58
ILLINOIS STATE 84, Morgan State 63
JAMES MADISON 79, UNC Greensboro 74
KANSAS CITY 75, Appalachian State 70
LONG ISLAND 82, Manhattan 77
MARIST 72, Maine 63
Mercer 68, CHATTANOOGA 56
MURRAY STATE 73, Western Kentucky 62
NORTH TEXAS 73, Southeastern Louisiana 58
OKLAHOMA STATE 88, Central Arkansas 60
OREGON STATE 91, Chicago State 59
PEPPERDINE 65, Central Michigan 56
RUTGERS 73, Uab 67
SETON HALL 76, North Carolina A&T 57
SOUTH ALABAMA 76, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 61
TEXAS TECH 70, McNeese State 68
Vermont 69, NIAGARA 66
VILLANOVA 76, Delaware 63
Western Michigan vs. HIGH POINT: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
The Daniel Curry Index
12/16/12 Predictions
Season
Straight Up: 1110-341 (.765)
ATS: 443-463 (.489)
ATS Vary Units: 1636-1848 (.470)
Over/Under: 131-115 (.533)
Over/Under Vary Units: 181-185 (.495)
Non-Conference
ARKANSAS STATE 77, Austin Peay 67
BOSTON COLLEGE 65, New Hampshire 57
BOSTON U. 68, Quinnipiac 62
Cal State Fullerton 76, TEXAS SOUTHERN 72
Charlotte 78, KENNESAW STATE 55
DePAUL 77, Northern Illinois 57
FAIRFIELD 60, Drexel 59
ILLINOIS 77, Eastern Kentucky 58
ILLINOIS STATE 84, Morgan State 63
JAMES MADISON 79, UNC Greensboro 74
KANSAS CITY 75, Appalachian State 70
LONG ISLAND 82, Manhattan 77
MARIST 72, Maine 63
Mercer 68, CHATTANOOGA 56
MURRAY STATE 73, Western Kentucky 62
NORTH TEXAS 73, Southeastern Louisiana 58
OKLAHOMA STATE 88, Central Arkansas 60
OREGON STATE 91, Chicago State 59
PEPPERDINE 65, Central Michigan 56
RUTGERS 73, Uab 67
SETON HALL 76, North Carolina A&T 57
SOUTH ALABAMA 76, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 61
TEXAS TECH 70, McNeese State 68
Vermont 69, NIAGARA 66
VILLANOVA 76, Delaware 63
Western Michigan vs. HIGH POINT: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index
12/16/12 Predictions
Season
Straight Up: 224-109 (.673)
ATS: 168-170 (.497)
ATS Vary Units: 565-504 (.529)
Over/Under: 179-160 (.528)
Over/Under Vary Units: 324-266 (.549)
Houston 102, TORONTO 100
PHILADELPHIA 96, L.A. Lakers 93
Denver 108, SACRAMENTO 103
PORTLAND 98, New Orleans 92
The Daniel Curry Index
12/16/12 Predictions
Season
Straight Up: 224-109 (.673)
ATS: 168-170 (.497)
ATS Vary Units: 565-504 (.529)
Over/Under: 179-160 (.528)
Over/Under Vary Units: 324-266 (.549)
Houston 102, TORONTO 100
PHILADELPHIA 96, L.A. Lakers 93
Denver 108, SACRAMENTO 103
PORTLAND 98, New Orleans 92
Totals 4 You Selections for Early Sunday, December 16th
2012 Pro Football Rivalry Total of the Year!!!!!
Green Bay/Chicago over 43 1/2
You Win or we'll email you Tonight's Niners @ Patriots Winner Free of Charge!!!
Early NFL Bets Bets
NY Giants/Atlanta over 50 1/2
Tampa Baya/New Orleans over 54
Jacksonville/Miami under 37 1/2
Denver/Baltimore under 48
2012 Pro Football Rivalry Total of the Year!!!!!
Green Bay/Chicago over 43 1/2
You Win or we'll email you Tonight's Niners @ Patriots Winner Free of Charge!!!
Early NFL Bets Bets
NY Giants/Atlanta over 50 1/2
Tampa Baya/New Orleans over 54
Jacksonville/Miami under 37 1/2
Denver/Baltimore under 48
| From Platinum Plays. |
| 500K Underdog Parlay/Year the NY Giants +1½ over the Atlanta Falcons the Jacksonville Jaguars +7½ over the Miami Dolphins Best Bets the Houston Texans -10 over the Indianapolis Colts the Washington Redskins +3 over the Cleveland Browns the Baltimore Ravens +3 over the Denver Broncos 500K Sunday Night Cash Cow the New England Patriots -4½ over the San Francisco 49ers Best Bets the San Francisco/New England Game OVER the Total Of 46½ Points the Seattle Seahawks -5 over the Buffalo Bills the Kansas City Chiefs +3 over the Oakland Raiders the Pittsburgh Steelers -2 over the Dallas Cowboys PLATINUM PLAYS PREMIER PICK the Green Bay Packers -2½ over the Chicago Bears the San Diego Chargers -3 over the Carolina Panthers |
Friday, Dec. 14
Mike Greene
Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) over DALLAS COWBOYS
Wisconsin/Stanford (Under 47.5)-Rose Bowl
Fresno State (-11.5) over SMU-Hawaii Bowl
Mississippi (-3.5) over Pittsburgh-Compass Bowl
HOUSTON TEXANS (-9.5) over Indianapolis Colts
Green Bay Packers (-2.5) over CHICAGO BEARS
BB: BYU/San Diego State (Under 49)-Poinsettia Bowl
Bryan Leonard
Bryan Leonard
Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5) over MIAMI DOLPHINS
Toledo (+10) over Utah State-Idaho Potato Bowl
Northwestern (+1.5) over Mississippi State-Gator Bowl
Pittsburgh Steelers/DALLAS COWBOYS (Under 44)
Pittsburgh (+3.5) over Mississippi-Compass Bowl
Notre Dame (+9.5) over Alabama-BCS Championship
BB: Northwestern/Mississippi St (Over 52)-Gator Bowl
