Wunderdog,
Game: Jacksonville at Miami (Sunday 12/16 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Jacksonville +8 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Jacksonville Jaguars are 2-11 on the season, so instantly they draw a point or 2 from the books as no one wants to back a loser. Even with extra on the line, bettors are still backing 5-8 Miami laying over a touchdown. Chad Henne came out firing in his first two games as a starter for the Jags, throwing six TD passes to just one INT. The last two weeks vs. Buffalo and the Jets, he failed to complete 50% of his passes, and was limited to less than 5 yards per attempt. The big difference was those two teams have been great over the last month defending the pass, and his top receiver Cecil Shorts was out with a concussion. All indications are that Shorts will be back in the lineup this week, and Miami is just average against the pass. So, I expect a solid performance from Henne. There is also a sleeper factor at work. Chad Henne has revenge in mind for the Dolphins, and would love to stick it to them. Remember that McNabb beat the Eagles, Kolb beat the Eagles, Fitzpatrick beat the Bengals, and Favre beat the Packers - all in their first game against their former team. The other factor that has been interesting is that the Jags defense has stepped things up since the quarterback change. This team allowed 26+ points in eight of their first ten games. But, over the past three games, they are allowing just 23.3 per game. The Dolphins’ offense has come to a screeching halt with just 90 points in their last six games for 15 points per game. That makes it tough to cover a TD spread when you’re getting just two yourself on average, especially when you’re allowing 25 per game over the same period. It is hard to see the Dolphins at 5-8 vs. a 2-11 team invested in this game, and their history certainly verifies that as they are 6-24 ATS in their last 30 at home vs. a losing team. Henne will be invested in this game, so play on Jacksonville.
Game: Tampa Bay at New Orleans (Sunday 12/16 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Tampa Bay +4 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8)
The New Orleans Saints got off to a disastrous 0-4 start to the season. It looked like it was over and out, but they rallied back to get to 5-5. They looked like a team destined to make a playoffs run, but that all came to a screeching halt over the last three weeks. In three must-win situations, the Saints went winless, losing all three games by double-digits. The reality of the Saints is now obvious - they are a bad team. The line here may look fair, but if the Saints were beaten by 45 points the last three weeks when they were fully invested in the games, how can they possibly have anything left now? The Buccaneers aren't in a much better spot, having also dropped three straight. But, with six wins they still have something to play for. The Bucs have scored 21 points or more for 10 straight games, and suddenly the Saints have not even averaged that over their last three. Tampa Bay has at least as much to offer offensively. Although their defense has not been good, they do get more stops than the Saints who bring up the rear in the NFL, allowing more yards than any other team by over 40 yards per contest. The Bucs have been huge on the road at 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27, which includes 7-2 ATS in their last nine in New Orleans. The Bucs are a better team. Let's not forget that this team was 6-4. They lost three straight but two of those losses came to Atlanta and Denver. There will be a ton of scoring here. Fade the worse defense. The play here is Tampa Bay.
Game: Denver at Baltimore (Sunday 12/16 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Baltimore +135 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 2.7)
The Denver Broncos have now won eight straight games and have moved to No. 4 in the league on offense and No. 4 on defense. So who can possibly derail the Manning express? Perhaps it might be a team that has a record better than 7-6. The Broncos may be lavishing in the winning streak, but a closer look leaves some question marks. The eight game winning streak is comprised of teams that are a combined 37-67 on the season with only a single winning team in the 7-6 Cincinnati Bengals. The Broncos’ other two wins on the season came at the expense of teams that are 13-16, so their 10 wins are to teams that are 47-83, and none better than 7-6. Their three losses were to teams with solid winning records, and at 9-4 Baltimore fits above all the teams they have beaten this season, and they are at home, desperate for a win. The Ravens find a way to get it done at home where they are 34-6 straight-up in their last 40 and they've won 20 of their last 22! The six losses are by a combined 18 points, and the biggest loss is by 4. The Broncos are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 on the road vs. a winning team. Baltimore has won 34 of their last 40 here, and the six losses were near misses. This season, the Ravens are 5-1 at home winning on average 34-22. And, in their last 11 games folowing a loss, the Ravens are 10-1 straight up. In the Harbaugh era, they are 18-5 after a loss. The Ravens have been a home dog just once in the last four years - and for good reason. Take Baltimore on the moneyline.
Game: Green Bay at Chicago (Sunday 12/16 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Chicago +3 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8)
The Green Bay Packers have won seven of their last eight games. But, this team has been a far cry from the 15-1 team from a year ago that recorded eight double-digit wins in the regular season. This year’s version has yet to record a single 20+ point blowout. On the road this season, this Packers team is very pedestrian having gone 3-3 and getting outscored in the process. The Bears were the 7-1 team through eight games, but the wheels have come off as they have dropped four of their last five. But outside of the San Francisco debacle, the Bears’ other three losses were all one-possession games. While the Packers have come out in front of their one-possession games, the Bears have not. The Bears have been a lot more efficient at home where they are 5-2. The two losses were not unreasonable: a 7-point loss to a 2-loss team and an overtime loss to Seattle. I don't see anything there that says they are not going to be competitive or win this game. Remember also that the San Francisco and Houston losses were without Jay Cutler. The Bears are holding opponents to jsut 14.6 points per game at home and, under Lovie Smith, this Bears team is 22-11 straight-up at home following a loss including 10-4 at home after back-to-back losses. This is a big revenge spot for Chicago as they were embarrassed by the Packers in week two. I like the Bears plus the points in this one.
Game: New York Giants at Atlanta (Sunday 12/16 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 51 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The much maligned Giants’ defense, and this team in general, are puzzling to many. The Giants can lose to Cincinnati and Philadelphia, fall behind to Tampa Bay and Cleveland, and rally back seemingly at will. They tend to be lackadaisical until it is show time vs. the big teams. They had their first big test at San Francisco in mid October, with the Niners playing to revenge a playoff loss. The Giants came out and dominated the game, allowing the Niners a season-low 3 points and winning by over three touchdowns. Later in the season, the Giants suffered back-to-back losses to Pittsburgh and Cincinnati and then Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers headed to the Meadowlands and were held to 10 points as the Giants won by 28. So, in this game, expeect an A-effort from the Giants defense. This is a big-game team, and the Falcons at 11-2 and the best record in the NFC are up next. Just like the Niners, the Falcons have major revenge for a punishing 24-2 loss in their first round playoff game a year ago. History has told their story, so I expect the Giants to muscle up on the defensive side and limit the Falcons’ offense. New York has been a great road team for years and this year is no exception. The G-Men have held opponents to just 16.8 points per game on the road this season. The Falcons don't get a lot of credit on the defensive side of the ball, but seven of their last eleven opponents failed to score more than 20 points! The Giants are 11-1 to the UNDER following a win, and just one of their last eight road games has eclipsed the total. These two teams have combined for a 17-9 mark to the UNDER this season. Giants road games this season have averaged just 39.6 points. Falcons home games have averaged 43.2 points. If we average both of those, we get 41.4 points. This total is a whopping 10 points taller than that. Take the UNDER.
Game: Detroit at Arizona (Sunday 12/16 4:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Arizona +6.5 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8)
58-0. That's the score of Arizona's debacle last week. It doesn't get uglier than that. Well that's not true. In the last 25 years in the NFL there has been one worse loss. The Titans lost to the Patriots in October of 2009 59-0. The Titans won and covered their next game. In 20 games in which a team has lost by 44+ points over the past quarter century, the losing team has covered the spread 63% of the time in their next game (12-7-1 ATS). Might the spreads in their next game be a bit inflated? Sure! No one wants to touch a team that lost by this margin last week. That is holding true this week as 85% of the bets on this game are coming in on Detroit. Despite that very heavy lopsided action, the line hasn't moved much from the opening line of 6. That tells you that very heavy money is coming in on the Cardinals here. Yes, the Cardinals were scary bad last week, and they are 4-9 on the season having dropped nine straight games. But, Detroit is a really bad team too, and laying nearly a touchdown on the road. The Lions are getting outscored on the season and things are getting progressively worse. Over their last five games, Detroit is 0-5 straight up and 0-4-1 ATS, getting outscored 128 to 154. This defense has allowed 24+ points in eight of their 13 games. In three of their last five, they have allowed 34 or more points. On the road, the Lions are 2-5. Arizona has their issues for sure, but after an emabarrassment like they suffered last week, I expect them to show up here to atone. This is what professionals do and it's why these huge losers have been great bets historically. Under Ken Wisenhunt, the Cardinals are 11-2 ATS at home vs. good offensive teams (those like the Lions that score 24+ points per game). After last week's 58-0 drubbing, this is a counterintuitive play. But it's the right one. Take the Cardinals and the points.
Game: Pittsburgh at Dallas (Sunday 12/16 4:25 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Game Total OVER 44 -110 (risk 2 to win 1.8)
The Steelers own the best defense in the league - as rated by yards allowed (262.4). But, they drop all the way to 7th when we look at points allowed (20.3). And, Dallas' defense is ranked in the lower third of the league, allowing 24.2 per game. Pittsburgh's defense is very stout at home, allowing just 16 points per game. That figure climbs by more than a touchdown on the road (24 ppg allowed). Dallas' defense at home gives up 27.3 per game and lately this unit has been getting torched, giving up 33+ points in two of their last three games. The Steelers are coming off an upset loss to the Chargers and winning road teams that are off an upset loss have seen their games go OVER the spread 68% of the time the past six seasons (56-26 OVER). Over the past three seasons, the Cowboys are a perfect 7-0 OVER when facing a winning team at home. They are also 10-1 OVER during that span at home vs. good passing teams (teams completing over 60% of their passes). In the Mike Tomlin era in Pittsburgh, the Steelers are 21-11 OVER as a road favorite. Take the OVER here.
Game: Kansas City at Oakland (Sunday 12/16 4:25 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Kansas City +3.5 (-120) (risk 3 to win 2.5)
The Kansas City Chiefs did not give themselves a chance to win or cover many games through mid-season. Up until that point, they were -20 in turnovers, and virtually eliminated any possibility of winning, despite out-gaining many of their opponents from the line of scrimmage. Things have changed, and although they have just two wins, this has become a competitive team. The Chiefs have turned the ball over just four times in their last five games, resulting in three ATS wins, more than they had in their first eight games. The Raiders are a different story. This team has either quit, or they are just that bad. In the end, it doesn't matter as either are good fade reasons. They are yielding just shy of 36 points per game in their last six games, and scoring just 14.3 points per game in their last four. That is a three touchdown gap, and one that is likely not going to get fixed anytime soon. To be favored here is a real stretch. In his coaching career, Romeo Crennel is 9-1 ATS on the road following a road loss and 17-4 ATS after allowing 30+ points in his previous game. Play on Kansas City.
