Written by Shahan Ahmed
Week of December 15, 2012 Director's Picks: Top 3 European Football Picks
I’m feeling a bit better about myself after going 3-1 the last two weeks with +245 units in profit. This week, I’m coming out guns blazing with three new picks. One Premier League picks, one Serie A picks, and one La Liga pick for Barcelona versus Atletico Madrid (definitely the game of the week). As always, the first pick is free and the remainder are for members only. This week, our members get 3 picks with the usual analysis and reasoning… so here goes:
Free Picks of the Week: Serie A
Inter Milan vs Lazio:
Inter Milan to win at 3.080
If Barcelona versus Atletico Madrid wasn’t on the menu this weekend, Inter versus Lazio would be my first-choice game of the week. Top four in Italy battling it out for a Champions League spot. Inter is four points ahead in the table, so this does not appear to be a massive advantage for Inter. However, Lazio has some key players missing with injury and suspension. Luis Pedro Cavanda is out suspended. Andre Dias failed to recover in time, and Abdoulay Konko remains questionable. With Antonio Cassano pulling strings, Inter should be able to exploit Lazio’s makeshift backline. At 3.080, the payoff is well worth the risk. Getting a healthier team that is ranked higher in the table is good value for my money. The computer disagrees with my assessment, but that’s why I make my picks and the computer makes its picks. I like Inter to collect maximum points on Saturday.
There are two more picks that are for members only. Both picks involve our Director of European football explaining his picks and breaking down why he believes he has the edge. If you’re a member, sign in now and see two more picks including an English Premier League Pick and a German Bundesliga pick.
West Ham at West Bromwich Albion:
West Brom to win at 2.040
West Ham United was dealt a massive blow with the loss of midfielder Mohamed Diame. With striker Andy Carroll also unavailable, West Ham is thin at the moment. West Brom is four points up on West Ham in the table, and this is a match at home for the Baggies. West Brom is on a three match losing streak, but they look prime to break out of their funk and collect three important points at the Hawthorns. Again, I disagree with the computer on this pick, and this is apparently a week of rebellion on my part. The computer gives the Baggies a 41 percent chance to win. For my money, I’ll take better than even money for a team to break its streak with a home victory against a depleted side. I like West Brom to snatch this.
Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid:
Atletico Madrid +1.5 at 2.110
Atletico Madrid won its last to matches by a combines score of 9-0. It is no accident that Atleti is 6 points back of Barcelona at this point in the season. A trip to Camp Nou does not ensure victory for Madrid’s other team, but getting a 1.5 goals handicap as the second best team in the league is worth a punt. Messi will likely put in a goal or two, but Radamel Falcao’s 16 goal tally this season is due to put in a goal or two as well. Falcao has performed whenever given the opportunity, and coming off 5 goals last week, he is a striker high on confidence. The askthebookie computer finally agrees with me on one pick. The computer predicts value on Atletico Madrid to win or draw. Also, the computer gives Atletico Madrid a 58.5 percent chance of covering this 1.5 goal handicap. For better than even money, 58.5 percent is a good number. I’m sold.
Week of December 15, 2012 Director's Picks: Top 3 European Football Picks
I’m feeling a bit better about myself after going 3-1 the last two weeks with +245 units in profit. This week, I’m coming out guns blazing with three new picks. One Premier League picks, one Serie A picks, and one La Liga pick for Barcelona versus Atletico Madrid (definitely the game of the week). As always, the first pick is free and the remainder are for members only. This week, our members get 3 picks with the usual analysis and reasoning… so here goes:
Free Picks of the Week: Serie A
Inter Milan vs Lazio:
Inter Milan to win at 3.080
If Barcelona versus Atletico Madrid wasn’t on the menu this weekend, Inter versus Lazio would be my first-choice game of the week. Top four in Italy battling it out for a Champions League spot. Inter is four points ahead in the table, so this does not appear to be a massive advantage for Inter. However, Lazio has some key players missing with injury and suspension. Luis Pedro Cavanda is out suspended. Andre Dias failed to recover in time, and Abdoulay Konko remains questionable. With Antonio Cassano pulling strings, Inter should be able to exploit Lazio’s makeshift backline. At 3.080, the payoff is well worth the risk. Getting a healthier team that is ranked higher in the table is good value for my money. The computer disagrees with my assessment, but that’s why I make my picks and the computer makes its picks. I like Inter to collect maximum points on Saturday.
There are two more picks that are for members only. Both picks involve our Director of European football explaining his picks and breaking down why he believes he has the edge. If you’re a member, sign in now and see two more picks including an English Premier League Pick and a German Bundesliga pick.
West Ham at West Bromwich Albion:
West Brom to win at 2.040
West Ham United was dealt a massive blow with the loss of midfielder Mohamed Diame. With striker Andy Carroll also unavailable, West Ham is thin at the moment. West Brom is four points up on West Ham in the table, and this is a match at home for the Baggies. West Brom is on a three match losing streak, but they look prime to break out of their funk and collect three important points at the Hawthorns. Again, I disagree with the computer on this pick, and this is apparently a week of rebellion on my part. The computer gives the Baggies a 41 percent chance to win. For my money, I’ll take better than even money for a team to break its streak with a home victory against a depleted side. I like West Brom to snatch this.
Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid:
Atletico Madrid +1.5 at 2.110
Atletico Madrid won its last to matches by a combines score of 9-0. It is no accident that Atleti is 6 points back of Barcelona at this point in the season. A trip to Camp Nou does not ensure victory for Madrid’s other team, but getting a 1.5 goals handicap as the second best team in the league is worth a punt. Messi will likely put in a goal or two, but Radamel Falcao’s 16 goal tally this season is due to put in a goal or two as well. Falcao has performed whenever given the opportunity, and coming off 5 goals last week, he is a striker high on confidence. The askthebookie computer finally agrees with me on one pick. The computer predicts value on Atletico Madrid to win or draw. Also, the computer gives Atletico Madrid a 58.5 percent chance of covering this 1.5 goal handicap. For better than even money, 58.5 percent is a good number. I’m sold.
[h=1]Today's NFL Picks[/h][h=2]Cincinnati at Philadelphia[/h]The Bengals look to build on their 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 road games. Cincinnati is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Bengals favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-3 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.
| THURSDAY, DECEMBER 13 Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST (12/12) |
| Game 301-302: Cincinnati at Philadelphia (8:20 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 134.088; Philadelphia 128.476 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 5 1/2; 42 Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3 1/2; 46 Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-3 1/2); Under |
| SUNDAY, DECEMBER 16 Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST (12/12) |
| Game 303-304: Green Bay at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 132.138; Chicago 138.833 Dunkel Line: Chicago by 6 1/2; 46 Vegas Line: Green Bay by 3; 42 Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+3); Over |
| Game 305-306: NY Giants at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 136.551; Atlanta 140.528 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 4; 47 Vegas Line: Atlanta by 1; 51 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-1); Under |
| Game 307-308: Tampa Bay at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 135.326; New Orleans 132.828 Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2 1/2; 58 Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3 1/2; 53 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+3 1/2); Over |
| Game 309-310: Minnesota at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 125.974; St. Louis 135.615 Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 9 1/2; 42 Vegas Line: St. Louis by 1; 38 Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-1); Over |
| Game 311-312: Washington at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington 135.157; Cleveland 131.638 Dunkel Line: Washington by 3 1/2; 37 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A |
| Game 313-314: Jacksonville at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 124.161; Miami 119.081 Dunkel Line: Miami by 5; 42 Vegas Line: Miami by 7; 37 Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+7); Over |
| Game 315-316: Denver at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Denver 138.882; Baltimore 138.990 Dunkel Line: Even; 44 Vegas Line: Denver by 3; 48 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+3); Under |
| Game 317-318: Indianapolis at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 129.230; Houston 140.439 Dunkel Line: Houston by 11; 45 Vegas Line: Houston by 7 1/2; 48 Dunkel Pick: Houston (-7 1/2); Under |
| Game 319-320: Carolina at San Diego (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 130.645; San Diego 130.390 Dunkel Line: Even; 51 Vegas Line: San Diego by 3; 45 Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+3); Over |
| Game 321-322: Seattle at Buffalo (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 138.522; Buffalo 129.411 Dunkel Line: Seattle by 9; 39 Vegas Line: Seattle by 5; 43 Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-5); Under |
| Game 323-324: Detroit at Arizona (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 129.120; Arizona 125.470 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 3 1/2; 48 Vegas Line: Detroit by 6; 43 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+6); Over |
| Game 325-326: Pittsburgh at Dallas (4:25 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 129.619; Dallas 134.881 Dunkel Line: Dallas by 5 1/2; 40 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 2; 44 Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+2); Under |
| Game 327-328: Kansas City at Oakland (4:25 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 124.761; Oakland 122.374 Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 2 1/2; 46 Vegas Line: Oakland by 3; 43 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+3); Over |
| Game 329-330: San Francisco at New England (8:20 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 138.793; New England 150.743 Dunkel Line: New England by 12; 45 Vegas Line: New England by 5; 47 1/2 Dunkel Pick: New England (-5); Under |
| MONDAY, DECEMBER 17 Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST (12/12) |
| Game 331-332: NY Jets at Tennessee (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 127.362; Tennessee 127.415 Dunkel Line: Even; 45 Vegas Line: Tennessee by 2; 41 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+2); Over |
YouWinNow - Jeffrey James
#305 New York Giants +2 (1:00 est) The Giants will be very ready here since they are in a very tough fight for the division title. They are very strong on the road and especially strong in this spot as they have covered 17 of their last 22 on the road when playing a team off of a double digit loss. Also the G Men are very strong late in the season. Atlanta seems almost disinterested since they have the division already locked up and a big advantage in the race for home field. Have to love the road warrior Giants as a dog here.
#305 New York Giants +2 (1:00 est) The Giants will be very ready here since they are in a very tough fight for the division title. They are very strong on the road and especially strong in this spot as they have covered 17 of their last 22 on the road when playing a team off of a double digit loss. Also the G Men are very strong late in the season. Atlanta seems almost disinterested since they have the division already locked up and a big advantage in the race for home field. Have to love the road warrior Giants as a dog here.
Packers at Bears: What Bettors Need to Know
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (1, 43)
The Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears are trending in opposite directions. Winners of seven of their last eight games, the Packers can clinch their second consecutive NFC North title at the expense of their longtime rival on Sunday. Green Bay continued its rapid ascent after rallying from an early two-touchdown deficit to post a 27-20 triumph over Detroit last weekend.
Chicago also faced off against a division foe last week but suffered its fourth loss in five games with a 21-14 setback to Minnesota. Jay Cutler suffered a neck injury versus the Vikings, but he is expected to play and attempt to end the Bears' five-game losing skid to the Packers. He'll need to do better than his four-interception performance in a 23-10 loss to Green Bay on Sept. 13.
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX.
LINE: Packers -1, O/U 43
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-40s with a 30 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out of the SW at 13 mph.
ABOUT THE PACKERS (9-4): Beware of the vaunted Green Bay ... running game? The trio of Alex Green (career-high 69 yards), practice squad call-up DuJuan Harris (31 yards, touchdown) and veteran Ryan Grant made their presence felt last week. Aaron Rodgers also got in on the fun with a 27-yard touchdown run, but isn't too bad of a passer, either. In addition, Rodgers may see the return of wide receiver Jordy Nelson, who has been hobbled by a hamstring injury.
ABOUT THE BEARS (8-5): Cutler has connected with trusted target Brandon Marshall - who emphasized his dislike for the Bears on Wednesday - 101 times for 1,342 yards this season, but the pair only hooked up twice for 24 yards in the previous encounter versus the Packers. Getting Matt Forte untracked could go along way for both the running and passing games. Forte, who mustered just 31 yards vs. Green Bay in the previous encounter, hasn't scored a rushing TD since Nov. 4.
TRENDS:
* Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. NFC opponents.
* Under is 4-0 in Packers’ last four games overall.
* Under is 5-0 in Bears’ last five vs. NFC North foes.
* Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. After recording 28 turnovers en route to posting a 7-1 mark, Chicago has forced just seven takeaways in its past five contests.
2. Green Bay OLB Clay Matthews (hamstring) is in line to return after a four-week absence, but veteran S Charles Woodson (broken collarbone) will spend another game on the sideline.
3. The Bears will turn to veteran K Olindo Mare after Robbie Gould suffered a season-ending calf injury prior to last week's game versus Minnesota.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (1, 43)
The Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears are trending in opposite directions. Winners of seven of their last eight games, the Packers can clinch their second consecutive NFC North title at the expense of their longtime rival on Sunday. Green Bay continued its rapid ascent after rallying from an early two-touchdown deficit to post a 27-20 triumph over Detroit last weekend.
Chicago also faced off against a division foe last week but suffered its fourth loss in five games with a 21-14 setback to Minnesota. Jay Cutler suffered a neck injury versus the Vikings, but he is expected to play and attempt to end the Bears' five-game losing skid to the Packers. He'll need to do better than his four-interception performance in a 23-10 loss to Green Bay on Sept. 13.
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX.
LINE: Packers -1, O/U 43
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-40s with a 30 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out of the SW at 13 mph.
ABOUT THE PACKERS (9-4): Beware of the vaunted Green Bay ... running game? The trio of Alex Green (career-high 69 yards), practice squad call-up DuJuan Harris (31 yards, touchdown) and veteran Ryan Grant made their presence felt last week. Aaron Rodgers also got in on the fun with a 27-yard touchdown run, but isn't too bad of a passer, either. In addition, Rodgers may see the return of wide receiver Jordy Nelson, who has been hobbled by a hamstring injury.
ABOUT THE BEARS (8-5): Cutler has connected with trusted target Brandon Marshall - who emphasized his dislike for the Bears on Wednesday - 101 times for 1,342 yards this season, but the pair only hooked up twice for 24 yards in the previous encounter versus the Packers. Getting Matt Forte untracked could go along way for both the running and passing games. Forte, who mustered just 31 yards vs. Green Bay in the previous encounter, hasn't scored a rushing TD since Nov. 4.
TRENDS:
* Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. NFC opponents.
* Under is 4-0 in Packers’ last four games overall.
* Under is 5-0 in Bears’ last five vs. NFC North foes.
* Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. After recording 28 turnovers en route to posting a 7-1 mark, Chicago has forced just seven takeaways in its past five contests.
2. Green Bay OLB Clay Matthews (hamstring) is in line to return after a four-week absence, but veteran S Charles Woodson (broken collarbone) will spend another game on the sideline.
3. The Bears will turn to veteran K Olindo Mare after Robbie Gould suffered a season-ending calf injury prior to last week's game versus Minnesota.
Capping Sunday's Must-Win NFL games
It’s Week 15 and the playoff pressure is mounting for a handful of NFL teams. This week’s schedule features a pair of games that have both combatants fighting for their playoff lives.
Let’s break down a betting strategy for these key matchups that feature teams on the outside looking in with the help of the Covers Experts.
Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams (-1, 39)
The Vikings proved they’ve still got some fight left in them after last week’s win over the Bears in Chicago. Minnesota shot out of the gates with a 5-1 SU record, but is just 3-5 since. The Rams are headed in the opposite direction. St. Louis is 3-0 SU and ATS over its last three overall, including a huge victory over the Niners in Week 13.
“I often feel that desperation is a factor oddsmakers have a hard time properly quantifying into a line," says Covers Expert David Chan. "Did that team start the year red-hot, only to stumble through the middle of the season and then find itself in a must-win game near the end of the year (Vikings)? Or did it start slowly, and then come on like gangbusters to end the season, needing one or two more wins to keep its playoff hopes alive (Rams)?”
Adrian Peterson has carried the Vikings all season long, but he faces a tough Rams run defense this week.
“While they likely won't be able to shut him down entirely, I do feel that the Rams will be more successful in slowing Peterson down than other teams have been lately,” says Covers Expert Ben Burns. “The Rams haven't allowed any running back to gain more than 65 yards against them in the last four games.”
Pittsburgh Steelers at Dallas Cowboys (+1, 44)
There’s no shortage of storylines coming into this game for the Cowboys. They’re still dealing with the death of Jerry Brown and now have concerns about the health of WR Dez Bryant.
“The biggest thing about this matchup is the emotional state of the Cowboys,” says Covers Expert Steve Merril. “We saw the Chiefs play well and then struggle the following week after their tragedy and you have to wonder if Dallas will have that problem this week.”
Bryant has vowed to play this week despite nursing a fractured left index finger. But can bettors expect the same offensive output from him this week?
“I feel the Bryant injury is a big deal," notes Covers Expert Bryan Power. “It severely limits what the Cowboys can do in the passing game, and keep in mind they’re facing the No. 1 pass defense in the league."
Another thing to keep in mind is how horrible Dallas is against the spread at home this season. They've failed to cover in all six games.
The Steelers hung on for dear life when Ben Roethlisberger fell to shoulder and rib injuries. Charlie Batch found some muster in his old legs to keep them in the playoff hunt, but Big Ben showed some rust in last week’s loss to the Chargers and put his team's back against the wall.
“Big Ben should bounce back this week as he is the ultimate competitor, although historically he's not as strong on the road with 38 career wins and a 90.1 QB rating, says Covers Expert Chris Elliott. "This game comes down to whoever runs the ball effectively. Expect a low- scoring game and a tight finish.”
It’s Week 15 and the playoff pressure is mounting for a handful of NFL teams. This week’s schedule features a pair of games that have both combatants fighting for their playoff lives.
Let’s break down a betting strategy for these key matchups that feature teams on the outside looking in with the help of the Covers Experts.
Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams (-1, 39)
The Vikings proved they’ve still got some fight left in them after last week’s win over the Bears in Chicago. Minnesota shot out of the gates with a 5-1 SU record, but is just 3-5 since. The Rams are headed in the opposite direction. St. Louis is 3-0 SU and ATS over its last three overall, including a huge victory over the Niners in Week 13.
“I often feel that desperation is a factor oddsmakers have a hard time properly quantifying into a line," says Covers Expert David Chan. "Did that team start the year red-hot, only to stumble through the middle of the season and then find itself in a must-win game near the end of the year (Vikings)? Or did it start slowly, and then come on like gangbusters to end the season, needing one or two more wins to keep its playoff hopes alive (Rams)?”
Adrian Peterson has carried the Vikings all season long, but he faces a tough Rams run defense this week.
“While they likely won't be able to shut him down entirely, I do feel that the Rams will be more successful in slowing Peterson down than other teams have been lately,” says Covers Expert Ben Burns. “The Rams haven't allowed any running back to gain more than 65 yards against them in the last four games.”
Pittsburgh Steelers at Dallas Cowboys (+1, 44)
There’s no shortage of storylines coming into this game for the Cowboys. They’re still dealing with the death of Jerry Brown and now have concerns about the health of WR Dez Bryant.
“The biggest thing about this matchup is the emotional state of the Cowboys,” says Covers Expert Steve Merril. “We saw the Chiefs play well and then struggle the following week after their tragedy and you have to wonder if Dallas will have that problem this week.”
Bryant has vowed to play this week despite nursing a fractured left index finger. But can bettors expect the same offensive output from him this week?
“I feel the Bryant injury is a big deal," notes Covers Expert Bryan Power. “It severely limits what the Cowboys can do in the passing game, and keep in mind they’re facing the No. 1 pass defense in the league."
Another thing to keep in mind is how horrible Dallas is against the spread at home this season. They've failed to cover in all six games.
The Steelers hung on for dear life when Ben Roethlisberger fell to shoulder and rib injuries. Charlie Batch found some muster in his old legs to keep them in the playoff hunt, but Big Ben showed some rust in last week’s loss to the Chargers and put his team's back against the wall.
“Big Ben should bounce back this week as he is the ultimate competitor, although historically he's not as strong on the road with 38 career wins and a 90.1 QB rating, says Covers Expert Chris Elliott. "This game comes down to whoever runs the ball effectively. Expect a low- scoring game and a tight finish.”
Early NFL Weather: Rain on the Way in Week 15
Find out if weather will impact your wagers in Week 15 of the NFL season:
Denver at Baltimore (3, 48)
Site: M&T Bank Stadium
Early forecasts are projecting temperatures in the mid-40s with a 60 percent chance of showers. Winds will be light out of the SE.
Green Bay at Chicago (3, 43)
Site: Soldier Field
Early forecasts are projecting temperatures in the low-40s with a slight 30 percent chance of showers. Winds will blow out of the west at 13 mph.
Washington at Cleveland (1, 43.5)
Site: Cleveland Browns Stadium
Early forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-40s with a 30 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out of the south at 13 mph.
Carolina at San Diego (-3, 44.5)
Site: Qualcomm Stadium
Early forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-60s with a 30 percent chance of rain. Winds will be light out of the north.
Kansas City at Oakland (-3, 44)
Site: O.co Coliseum
Early forecasts are projecting temperatures in the mid-50s with a 40 percent chance of showers. Winds will blow out of the south at 12 mph.
San Francisco at New England (-5, 46)
Site: Gillette Stadium
Early forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-30s with an 85 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out of the ENE at 8 mph.
Find out if weather will impact your wagers in Week 15 of the NFL season:
Denver at Baltimore (3, 48)
Site: M&T Bank Stadium
Early forecasts are projecting temperatures in the mid-40s with a 60 percent chance of showers. Winds will be light out of the SE.
Green Bay at Chicago (3, 43)
Site: Soldier Field
Early forecasts are projecting temperatures in the low-40s with a slight 30 percent chance of showers. Winds will blow out of the west at 13 mph.
Washington at Cleveland (1, 43.5)
Site: Cleveland Browns Stadium
Early forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-40s with a 30 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out of the south at 13 mph.
Carolina at San Diego (-3, 44.5)
Site: Qualcomm Stadium
Early forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-60s with a 30 percent chance of rain. Winds will be light out of the north.
Kansas City at Oakland (-3, 44)
Site: O.co Coliseum
Early forecasts are projecting temperatures in the mid-50s with a 40 percent chance of showers. Winds will blow out of the south at 12 mph.
San Francisco at New England (-5, 46)
Site: Gillette Stadium
Early forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-30s with an 85 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out of the ENE at 8 mph.
NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 15
by Jason Logan
Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 15:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-4, 53.5)
Buccaneers’ ball-hawking defense vs. Saints’ turnover troubles
The obvious mismatch in this NFC South showdown is the Saints’ powerful passing attack versus the Bucs’ busted pass defense. However, a quick look at New Orleans’ numbers against the Giants last week will take the shine off that battle. Drew Brees passed for 354 yards but was picked off twice – his ninth interception in the last three games – while New Orleans also lost two fumbles.
Tampa Bay may be getting burned by opposing QBs but they have capitalized when those arms made mistakes. The Bucs have picked off 17 passes this season – fourth in the NFL – and took three of those back to the house. Veteran corner Ronde Barber leads the team with four INTs and is probably the one player in the NFL that knows Brees the best. He recorded an INT in Tampa Bay’s loss to New Orleans in Week 7.
Washington Redskins at Cleveland Browns (+1, 43.5)
Redskins’ hobbled QB Robert Griffin III vs. Browns’ sack attack
Despite some tight lips in the nation’s capital this week, it appears that Robert Griffin III will play on a gimpy right knee Sunday. Griffin suffered a sprained ACL against Baltimore last week and is officially listed as questionable. The dual-threat rookie QB went through Wednesday’s practice without issue but will be tested by a relentless pass rush in Cleveland.
The brightest spot for the Browns is their ability to get to the quarterback. Cleveland ranks seventh in the NFL with 34 sacks this season, including five versus former QB Brady Quinn in a win over Kansas City last weekend. You can expect the Browns will bring pressure early and test the mobility of RG3 and his wonky knee. Add to that some slick playing conditions in Cleveland, with a 54 percent chance of rain and winds getting up around 15 mph.
Carolina Panthers at San Diego Chargers (-3, 44.5)
Panthers’ coach Ron Rivera vs. Chargers’ coach Norv Turner
Panthers head coach Ron Rivera is well schooled in the “Book of Norv”, having spent four seasons as Turner’s assistant with the Chargers, two as the Bolts’ defensive coordinator. When Rivera took the gig in Carolina, he raided the cupboards and took offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski and secondary coach Steve Wilks with him.
Turner isn’t just going up against three former pupils but also his own son, Scott, who is the Panthers offensive quality control coach. The two usually talk every day but have had radio silence since last Sunday. Turner is on his way out of San Diego after a disappointing season and won’t be throwing any wrinkles into this usual bag of tricks. There won’t be many surprises for the Panthers coaches Sunday.
San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots (-5, 46)
Niners’ crappy kick coverage vs. Patriots’ sound special teams
In a game this tight, every yard is going to matter and field position may just dictate the winner. The Niners are a solid unit on both sides of the ball but their glaring weakness is on special teams. San Francisco has allowed foes to average 28.1 yards per kick return – worst in the NFL. The 49ers gave up some big returns to Miami last weekend, allowing an average of 30.6 yards per return on five kickoffs.
New England’s special teams are far from dangerous but they do have touchdowns on both kickoff and punt returns this season. The Patriots have shown more life on punt returns, averaging 14 yards per return. On the other side of the ball, New England allows just 20.3 yards per kickoff (third lowest) and 5.9 yards per punt (fourth lowest).
by Jason Logan
Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 15:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-4, 53.5)
Buccaneers’ ball-hawking defense vs. Saints’ turnover troubles
The obvious mismatch in this NFC South showdown is the Saints’ powerful passing attack versus the Bucs’ busted pass defense. However, a quick look at New Orleans’ numbers against the Giants last week will take the shine off that battle. Drew Brees passed for 354 yards but was picked off twice – his ninth interception in the last three games – while New Orleans also lost two fumbles.
Tampa Bay may be getting burned by opposing QBs but they have capitalized when those arms made mistakes. The Bucs have picked off 17 passes this season – fourth in the NFL – and took three of those back to the house. Veteran corner Ronde Barber leads the team with four INTs and is probably the one player in the NFL that knows Brees the best. He recorded an INT in Tampa Bay’s loss to New Orleans in Week 7.
Washington Redskins at Cleveland Browns (+1, 43.5)
Redskins’ hobbled QB Robert Griffin III vs. Browns’ sack attack
Despite some tight lips in the nation’s capital this week, it appears that Robert Griffin III will play on a gimpy right knee Sunday. Griffin suffered a sprained ACL against Baltimore last week and is officially listed as questionable. The dual-threat rookie QB went through Wednesday’s practice without issue but will be tested by a relentless pass rush in Cleveland.
The brightest spot for the Browns is their ability to get to the quarterback. Cleveland ranks seventh in the NFL with 34 sacks this season, including five versus former QB Brady Quinn in a win over Kansas City last weekend. You can expect the Browns will bring pressure early and test the mobility of RG3 and his wonky knee. Add to that some slick playing conditions in Cleveland, with a 54 percent chance of rain and winds getting up around 15 mph.
Carolina Panthers at San Diego Chargers (-3, 44.5)
Panthers’ coach Ron Rivera vs. Chargers’ coach Norv Turner
Panthers head coach Ron Rivera is well schooled in the “Book of Norv”, having spent four seasons as Turner’s assistant with the Chargers, two as the Bolts’ defensive coordinator. When Rivera took the gig in Carolina, he raided the cupboards and took offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski and secondary coach Steve Wilks with him.
Turner isn’t just going up against three former pupils but also his own son, Scott, who is the Panthers offensive quality control coach. The two usually talk every day but have had radio silence since last Sunday. Turner is on his way out of San Diego after a disappointing season and won’t be throwing any wrinkles into this usual bag of tricks. There won’t be many surprises for the Panthers coaches Sunday.
San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots (-5, 46)
Niners’ crappy kick coverage vs. Patriots’ sound special teams
In a game this tight, every yard is going to matter and field position may just dictate the winner. The Niners are a solid unit on both sides of the ball but their glaring weakness is on special teams. San Francisco has allowed foes to average 28.1 yards per kick return – worst in the NFL. The 49ers gave up some big returns to Miami last weekend, allowing an average of 30.6 yards per return on five kickoffs.
New England’s special teams are far from dangerous but they do have touchdowns on both kickoff and punt returns this season. The Patriots have shown more life on punt returns, averaging 14 yards per return. On the other side of the ball, New England allows just 20.3 yards per kickoff (third lowest) and 5.9 yards per punt (fourth lowest).
Steelers at Cowboys: What Bettors Need to Know
Pittsburgh Steelers at Dallas Cowboys (1, 44)
After a sluggish start, wide receiver Dez Bryant has made his presence felt as the Dallas Cowboys have risen in the standings. While dealing with a fractured left index finger, Bryant's presence itself is now in question heading into Sunday's game against the visiting Pittsburgh Steelers. Bryant, who has expressed his desire to play, suffered the injury as Dallas recorded its fourth win in five contests with a 20-19 triumph over Cincinnati last week.
Pittsburgh knows a thing or two about injuries, although it welcomed back Ben Roethlisberger (shoulder, rib) in last week's 34-24 home loss to San Diego. Roethlisberger struggled before throwing three touchdown passes - albeit with the game no longer in doubt and the Steelers skidding to their third loss in four contests. Pittsburgh is clinging to the final wild-card berth in the AFC, while Dallas sits one game behind NFC East-leading New York.
TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS.
LINE: Steelers -1, O/U 44
ABOUT THE STEELERS (7-6): Although Pittsburgh hosts Cincinnati next week in a game with AFC North and wild card implications, the Steelers need to keep their focus on the task at hand. Mike Tomlin's rushing carousel has careened off its tracks as Jonathan Dwyer struggled to move the ball last week while Rashard Mendenhall's displeasure with his inactivity has reportedly led to a one-game suspension.
ABOUT THE COWBOYS (7-6): While Dallas has been faring well on the field, the team is still dealing with the death of practice squad linebacker Jerry Brown. Many of the Cowboys attended the memorial - including Josh Brent, who was released from jail on intoxication manslaughter charges stemming from the one-car accident that killed Brown. Back on the field, Tony Romo has thrown seven touchdowns in his last three games.
TRENDS:
* Cowboys are 0-6 ATS at home this season.
* Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games on field turf.
* Under is 6-1 in Steelers’ last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 4-1 in Cowboys’ last five home games.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Pittsburgh will feature its fifth different offensive line in as many games on Sunday. First-round pick G David DeCastro will make his first career start versus Dallas.
2. Bryant, who has seven touchdowns in his last five contests, has scored all nine of his TDs this season in the second half of games.
3. The Steelers have played in the new Cowboys Stadium - although Dallas was not their opponent. Pittsburgh lost to Green Bay in Super Bowl XV.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Dallas Cowboys (1, 44)
After a sluggish start, wide receiver Dez Bryant has made his presence felt as the Dallas Cowboys have risen in the standings. While dealing with a fractured left index finger, Bryant's presence itself is now in question heading into Sunday's game against the visiting Pittsburgh Steelers. Bryant, who has expressed his desire to play, suffered the injury as Dallas recorded its fourth win in five contests with a 20-19 triumph over Cincinnati last week.
Pittsburgh knows a thing or two about injuries, although it welcomed back Ben Roethlisberger (shoulder, rib) in last week's 34-24 home loss to San Diego. Roethlisberger struggled before throwing three touchdown passes - albeit with the game no longer in doubt and the Steelers skidding to their third loss in four contests. Pittsburgh is clinging to the final wild-card berth in the AFC, while Dallas sits one game behind NFC East-leading New York.
TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS.
LINE: Steelers -1, O/U 44
ABOUT THE STEELERS (7-6): Although Pittsburgh hosts Cincinnati next week in a game with AFC North and wild card implications, the Steelers need to keep their focus on the task at hand. Mike Tomlin's rushing carousel has careened off its tracks as Jonathan Dwyer struggled to move the ball last week while Rashard Mendenhall's displeasure with his inactivity has reportedly led to a one-game suspension.
ABOUT THE COWBOYS (7-6): While Dallas has been faring well on the field, the team is still dealing with the death of practice squad linebacker Jerry Brown. Many of the Cowboys attended the memorial - including Josh Brent, who was released from jail on intoxication manslaughter charges stemming from the one-car accident that killed Brown. Back on the field, Tony Romo has thrown seven touchdowns in his last three games.
TRENDS:
* Cowboys are 0-6 ATS at home this season.
* Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games on field turf.
* Under is 6-1 in Steelers’ last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 4-1 in Cowboys’ last five home games.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Pittsburgh will feature its fifth different offensive line in as many games on Sunday. First-round pick G David DeCastro will make his first career start versus Dallas.
2. Bryant, who has seven touchdowns in his last five contests, has scored all nine of his TDs this season in the second half of games.
3. The Steelers have played in the new Cowboys Stadium - although Dallas was not their opponent. Pittsburgh lost to Green Bay in Super Bowl XV.
DCI Pro Football
The Daniel Curry Index
Week 15 Predictions
Week
Straight Up: 1-0 (1.000)
ATS: 1-0 (1.000)
ATS Vary Units: 2-0 (1.000)
Over/Under: 1-0 (1.000)
Over/Under Vary Units: 0-0 (-----)
Season
Straight Up: 121-77 (.611)
ATS: 90-113 (.443)
ATS Vary Units: 387-608 (.389)
Over/Under: 99-106 (.483)
Over/Under Vary Units: 378-350 (.519)
Sunday, December 16, 2012
ATLANTA 26, N.Y. Giants 24
Green Bay 23, CHICAGO 20
CLEVELAND 21, Washington 20
ST. LOUIS 21, Minnesota 17
MIAMI 27, Jacksonville 12
NEW ORLEANS 36, Tampa Bay 31
Denver 24, BALTIMORE 23
HOUSTON 29, Indianapolis 22
Detroit 25, ARIZONA 20
SAN DIEGO 27, Carolina 21
Seattle 26, BUFFALO 17
DALLAS 22, Pittsburgh 21
OAKLAND 23, Kansas City 19
NEW ENGLAND 28, San Francisco 19
The Daniel Curry Index
Week 15 Predictions
Week
Straight Up: 1-0 (1.000)
ATS: 1-0 (1.000)
ATS Vary Units: 2-0 (1.000)
Over/Under: 1-0 (1.000)
Over/Under Vary Units: 0-0 (-----)
Season
Straight Up: 121-77 (.611)
ATS: 90-113 (.443)
ATS Vary Units: 387-608 (.389)
Over/Under: 99-106 (.483)
Over/Under Vary Units: 378-350 (.519)
Sunday, December 16, 2012
ATLANTA 26, N.Y. Giants 24
Green Bay 23, CHICAGO 20
CLEVELAND 21, Washington 20
ST. LOUIS 21, Minnesota 17
MIAMI 27, Jacksonville 12
NEW ORLEANS 36, Tampa Bay 31
Denver 24, BALTIMORE 23
HOUSTON 29, Indianapolis 22
Detroit 25, ARIZONA 20
SAN DIEGO 27, Carolina 21
Seattle 26, BUFFALO 17
DALLAS 22, Pittsburgh 21
OAKLAND 23, Kansas City 19
NEW ENGLAND 28, San Francisco 19
Wayne Allyn Root
- THE ROOT TRUST -
THE ROOT TRUST INCLUDED THE NFL GAME OF THE YEAR, No Limit and Millionaires plays
Football NFL
Game Date/Time: December 16, 2012, 10:00 am(PST) Matchup: NY Giants Giants @ Atlanta Falcons
Take: None Selected
Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills...MILLIONAIRES...Take Buffalo The Seahawks are coming off a 58-0 drubbing of the Cardinals and hope they didn’t drain the well of points all in one game as they make a push towards the playoffs. Buffalo had the lead against a very stingy Rams defense at home last week and blew it in the 4 th quarter. Buffalo, who continues their partnership with NFL Canada and host another regular season affair north of the border, looks to control the game with the run, eat up the clock and play for pride in Toronto and use their defense to keep things close. Seattle is not known as a road warrior and is rarely a favorite on the road. Again, the oddsmakers know the last thing the public saw was 58 points for Seattle and the Bills losing in the final quarter to the Rams. This line is out of whack. _________________________________________________
NY Giants (8-5) at Atlanta Falcons...NO LIMIT...Take Atlanta The Atlanta Falcons and the New York Giants face off on Sunday in the Georgia Dome in a NFL matchup of two NFC division leaders. The big question was last week against Carolina a look ahead game? The Atlanta Falcons have the best record In the NFC but even so they are coming off of their most ordinary performance of the year in a loss at Carolina. The falcons are loaded at every position and need a big Dome effort to prove their talent is real. Matt Ryan has completed 67.7 percent of his passes with 24 touchdowns and 14 interceptions while being sacked 24 times. Michael Turner is averaging 3.7 yards per carry with eight touchdowns while Jacquizz Rodgers is seeing more action and he is averaging 4.1 yards per carry and he has 43 catches out of the backfield. Defensively Atlanta allows 19.9 points per game, 127 rushing yards, and 234.9 passing yards with 16 interceptions and 28 sacks. Atlanta is 21-7 against the spread in their last 28 games following a loss. Matt Ryan is tough as nails at home and really needs a great performance against a great team this time of the year!! _________________________________________________
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears...PINNACLE...Take Chicago THE NFL GAME OF THE YEAR The Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers meet on Sunday at Soldier Field in a pivotal NFC North NFL battle. The Chicago Bears a few weeks ago were in first place in the division they are now in a position where they may miss the playoffs entirely. This game is emotionally epic for the Bears. Jay Cutler has four main weapons on offense to get the job done. Matt Forte is averaging 4.3 yards per carry and he is the Bears’ second leading receiver with 36 catches. Brandon Marshall has 101 catches and nine touchdowns, Earl Bennett has 23 catches as does Devin Hester. Defensively the Bears are allowing 16.8 points per game. The Bears desperately need a win here as this season is already turning disappointing in a hurry. The should be able to get to Aaron Rodgers as his O-Line is depleted with injuries. Also, the Packers have some key injuries on defense but should have Clay Mathews back this week off his injuries. Look for an all-out war between the twenties and a key and needed win for the Bears. _______________________________________________________
- THE ROOT TRUST -
THE ROOT TRUST INCLUDED THE NFL GAME OF THE YEAR, No Limit and Millionaires plays
Football NFL
Game Date/Time: December 16, 2012, 10:00 am(PST) Matchup: NY Giants Giants @ Atlanta Falcons
Take: None Selected
Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills...MILLIONAIRES...Take Buffalo The Seahawks are coming off a 58-0 drubbing of the Cardinals and hope they didn’t drain the well of points all in one game as they make a push towards the playoffs. Buffalo had the lead against a very stingy Rams defense at home last week and blew it in the 4 th quarter. Buffalo, who continues their partnership with NFL Canada and host another regular season affair north of the border, looks to control the game with the run, eat up the clock and play for pride in Toronto and use their defense to keep things close. Seattle is not known as a road warrior and is rarely a favorite on the road. Again, the oddsmakers know the last thing the public saw was 58 points for Seattle and the Bills losing in the final quarter to the Rams. This line is out of whack. _________________________________________________
NY Giants (8-5) at Atlanta Falcons...NO LIMIT...Take Atlanta The Atlanta Falcons and the New York Giants face off on Sunday in the Georgia Dome in a NFL matchup of two NFC division leaders. The big question was last week against Carolina a look ahead game? The Atlanta Falcons have the best record In the NFC but even so they are coming off of their most ordinary performance of the year in a loss at Carolina. The falcons are loaded at every position and need a big Dome effort to prove their talent is real. Matt Ryan has completed 67.7 percent of his passes with 24 touchdowns and 14 interceptions while being sacked 24 times. Michael Turner is averaging 3.7 yards per carry with eight touchdowns while Jacquizz Rodgers is seeing more action and he is averaging 4.1 yards per carry and he has 43 catches out of the backfield. Defensively Atlanta allows 19.9 points per game, 127 rushing yards, and 234.9 passing yards with 16 interceptions and 28 sacks. Atlanta is 21-7 against the spread in their last 28 games following a loss. Matt Ryan is tough as nails at home and really needs a great performance against a great team this time of the year!! _________________________________________________
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears...PINNACLE...Take Chicago THE NFL GAME OF THE YEAR The Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers meet on Sunday at Soldier Field in a pivotal NFC North NFL battle. The Chicago Bears a few weeks ago were in first place in the division they are now in a position where they may miss the playoffs entirely. This game is emotionally epic for the Bears. Jay Cutler has four main weapons on offense to get the job done. Matt Forte is averaging 4.3 yards per carry and he is the Bears’ second leading receiver with 36 catches. Brandon Marshall has 101 catches and nine touchdowns, Earl Bennett has 23 catches as does Devin Hester. Defensively the Bears are allowing 16.8 points per game. The Bears desperately need a win here as this season is already turning disappointing in a hurry. The should be able to get to Aaron Rodgers as his O-Line is depleted with injuries. Also, the Packers have some key injuries on defense but should have Clay Mathews back this week off his injuries. Look for an all-out war between the twenties and a key and needed win for the Bears. _______________________________________________________
LVH Football Super Contest
This report shows the rankings by times taken for the current week’s games by JUST THOSE CONTESTANTS who are in the TOP 25 Spots. It also will show how many times each team has been taken and how they rank overall in times taken.
Week #15 – Top 25 Contestants Ranking Report by Times Taken in ContestSeason to Date Record : 40-23-2 (63.5%)
28 contestants in Top 25 for week 14
31 contestants in Top 25 for week 15
Top 5 and Overall Taken Report
This report shows the rankings by times taken for the current week’s games. It also will show how many times each team has been taken and how they rank overall in times taken.
Week #15 – Ranking Report by Times Taken in ContestSeaon to date Record : 35-32-3 (52.2%)
This report shows the rankings by times taken for the current week’s games by JUST THOSE CONTESTANTS who are in the TOP 25 Spots. It also will show how many times each team has been taken and how they rank overall in times taken.
Week #15 – Top 25 Contestants Ranking Report by Times Taken in ContestSeason to Date Record : 40-23-2 (63.5%)
28 contestants in Top 25 for week 14
31 contestants in Top 25 for week 15
| Rank | Team | Line | Taken | Taken % |
| 1 | Pit( ) | -1.5 | 17 | 54.8% |
| 2 | Sf ( ) | +5.5 | 16 | 51.6% |
| 3 | HOU( ) | -8 | 12 | 38.7% |
| 4 | Buf( ) | +5.5 | 10 | 32.3% |
| 5 | Car( ) | +3 | 10 | 32.3% |
| 6 | Nyg( ) | +1.5 | 10 | 32.3% |
Top 5 and Overall Taken Report
This report shows the rankings by times taken for the current week’s games. It also will show how many times each team has been taken and how they rank overall in times taken.
Week #15 – Ranking Report by Times Taken in ContestSeaon to date Record : 35-32-3 (52.2%)
| Rank | Team | Line | Taken | Taken % |
| 1 | Pit( ) | -1.5 | 242 | 33.9% |
| 2 | Sf ( ) | +5.5 | 221 | 31.0% |
| 3 | Nyg( ) | +1.5 | 208 | 29.1% |
| 4 | Den( ) | -2.5 | 201 | 28.2% |
| 4 | HOU( ) | -8 | 201 | 28.2% |
DOUBLE DRAGON SPORTS - NFL - Sunday, December 16th - Free Member Play
DOUBLE DRAGON SPORTS - NFL - Sunday, December 16th - Free Member Play
TOP (3 UNITS)
JAGUARS +7.5 at dolphins (10am)
Soumi
*Lines at LV Hilton 12-15-12, 4pm
**All times Pacific
Thank you for using Double Dragon Sports!
DOUBLE DRAGON SPORTS - NFL - Sunday, December 16th - Free Member Play
TOP (3 UNITS)
JAGUARS +7.5 at dolphins (10am)
Soumi
*Lines at LV Hilton 12-15-12, 4pm
**All times Pacific
Thank you for using Double Dragon Sports!
Last edited by a moderator:
TEDDY COVERS
4-1 RUN 20* BIG TICKETS (80%)
25 NOV 1-0
26 NOV 1-0
01 DEC 1-0
02 DEC 1-0
09 DEC 0-1
16 DEC
20* NY Giants over Atlanta
POWER SWEEP
24-7 NFL RUN 3* AND ABOVE ONLY (77%)
5* = 0-1
4* = 11-2
3* = 13-4
09 DEC 2-0
16 DEC
4* Houston Texans over Colts
3* NY Giants over Atlanta
