Bob Valentino
Sunday's 50 DIME NFL Winner ...
50 DIME
NFC GAME OF THE YEAR
REDSKINS (over Buccaneers)
We're playing WASHINGTON plus the couple of points at home against Tampa Bay in an NFC contest. As I publish this seleation, the Redskins are anywhere from a 1- to 2-point underdog, though the most common number out there is Tampa Bay minus-1 1/2. It looks like the macjority of public and sharp money is starting to come in on Washington here, so it might be wise to get down on this game quidkly, especially if you can grab the Redskins at plus-2 or higher.
As always, never take fewer points with an underdog than are available.
Sunday's 50 DIME NFL Winner ...
50 DIME
NFC GAME OF THE YEAR
REDSKINS (over Buccaneers)
We're playing WASHINGTON plus the couple of points at home against Tampa Bay in an NFC contest. As I publish this seleation, the Redskins are anywhere from a 1- to 2-point underdog, though the most common number out there is Tampa Bay minus-1 1/2. It looks like the macjority of public and sharp money is starting to come in on Washington here, so it might be wise to get down on this game quidkly, especially if you can grab the Redskins at plus-2 or higher.
As always, never take fewer points with an underdog than are available.
STAN the STAT MAN !!! GL
***** SUNDAY, DECEMBER 12TH NFL INFORMATION *****
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(All results ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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• COACHING DOWN THE STRETCH
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The final four weeks of the NFL season are tantamount to the stretch run of a Graded Stakes race. It’s where big races are
won and lost. It’s been said that if you don’t have the horse, you won’t win the race. For the most part this adage is right on the money. There are times, though, when the ride the horse gets by the jockey can put the team together in the winner’s circle. It’s why good jockeys are almost always atop quality horses in big races.
The same holds true for head coaches in the NFL. They too are the pilots, guiding their team to the wire, with game plans
designed for success – or failure – whichever the case may be. Listed below are the BEST and WORST current head coaches and their NFL career ATS records during Games 13-16 – minimum four occurrences (current team in parenthesis). All results are ATS (Against The Spread).
• BEST
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--HOME: KUBIAK (Houston) 8-2
--AWAY: SPARANO (Miami) 5-0
--FAVORITE: FOX (Carolina) 11-7
--DOG: MCCARTHY (G Bay) 5-0
• WORST
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--HOME: LEWIS (Cincinnati) 4-8-1
--AWAY: WHISENHUNT (Ariz) 0-5
--FAV: CARROLL (Seattle) 0-6
--DOG: DEL RIO (Jacksonville) 5-10
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• 2-MINUTE DRILL
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--Oakland DEC: 1-11 dogs off div vs non div… 1-9 A w/ non div rev... 5-2 OVER in 2nd of BB RG’s
--JACKSONVILLE SERIES: 3-0 L3… 8-0 favs off RG vs opp off SU dog win... 7-2 OVER home off BB RG’s
--Cincinnati 2-6 vs opp off SU dog win… 0-5 O/U Game Thirteen... 8-2 OVER in 1st of BB div gms
--PITTSBURGH SERIES: 6-2 L8… 6-1 H vs < .500 div opp (1-0 this year)... 7-0 OVER aft Ravens
--New England 0-7 favs off SU div win vs .700 > opp off BB SU wins... 0-5 UNDER off Monday
--CHICAGO SERIES: 4-1 L5 H… SMITH: 12-1 w/ rev vs opp off div... 1-6 UNDER home vs opp off Mon
--Cleveland 9-0 A vs .333 < opp… 10-2 vs AFC East (2-1 this year)... 3-7 UNDER non-div dogs 3 < pts
--BUFFALO 7-2 H off DD SU loss vs opp off SUATS win (0-1 this year)... 2-5 UNDER as HF’s 3 < pts
--Ny Giants DEC: 9-1 A vs < .500 opp off non div… 8-1 aft Redskins... 4-1 OVER aft Redskins
--MINNESOTA 0-7 dogs < 7 pts vs opp off BB SU wins (0-2 this year)... 4-1 OVER aft Bills
--Green Bay SERIES: 4-0 L4 A… 2-10 .500 > A vs div opp off div w/ rev... 1-4 UNDER div RF’s 3 > pts
--DETROIT 6-1 HD’s 7 > pts vs opp off SUATS home win... 1-4 UNDER div HD’s 5 > pts
--Atlanta 4-13 off BB SU wins vs opp off SU loss (2-1 this year)... 1-6 UNDER L7 away vs Panthers
--CAROLINA DEC: 13-3 dogs off SU loss… 7-2 HD’S 7 > pts... 2-6 UNDER in 1st of BB HG’s
--Tampa Bay 0-4 Game Thirteen… DEC: 1-7 A vs opp off SUATS div loss... 3-7 UNDER away vs NFC East
--WASHINGTON DEC: 10-1 dogs off SU loss vs opp w/ rev… 6-2-2 non div HD’s... 1-4 UNDER as dogs vs NFC South
--St. Louis 1-9 off div RG… 1-6 A aft allowing 10 < pts (1-1 this yr)... 4-1 OVER in 3rd straight RG
--NEW ORLEANS PAYTON: 7-1 off BB SU wins vs opp off BB SU wins... 7-2 OVER vs NFC West
--Seattle CARROLL: 2-15 off DD ATS win… 4-0 O/U Game Thirteen... 11-3 OVER as RD’s off BB HG’s
--S FRANCISCO 7-1 aft Green Bay vs .500 > foe… 6-2 w/ div revenge... 9-3 OVER as div favs 3 > pts
--Miami 5-1 vs .666 > div opp… SPARANO: 12-1 RD Game 4 >... 1-6 UNDER w/ div revenge
--NY JETS SERIES: 1-3 L4 … 1-7 O/U Game Thirteen... 2-7 UNDER vs div revenge
--Denver SERIES: 4-0 L4… 0-10 non div favs between div games... 5-0 OVER as favs vs NFC West
--ARIZONA 11-3 HD’s < 4 pts off BB SU losses (0-2 this year)... 5-0 OVER L5 vs Broncos
--Kansas City DEC: 1-7 off div HG… 1-5 A aft allowing 7 < pts... 2-7 UNDER away vs div revenge
--SAN DIEGO SERIES: 5-2 L7 H… TURNER: 13-2 off div vs .500 > opp... 1-4 UNDER home w/ div revenge
--Philadelphia 4-0 off SU Thursday win… 10-2 Game Thirteen... 7-1 OVER L8
--DALLAS 0-8 off SU non-div road win vs div opp off SU win... 7-0 OVER L7 vs. NFC.
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• SUNDAY'S QUICK HITS
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• #105 RAIDERS (6-6) @ #106 JAGUARS (7-5) - Jags won four of last five games (5-0 vs spread), running ball for average of 184.6 ypg; they’ve won three of four games vs Oakland, winning last three meetings by average score of 27-9. Raiders lost 49-11 in only visit here, in ’07. Jaguars are 3-0 as a favorite this year, winning by 7-7-4 points; this is first time all year they’ve been favored by more than 2 points. Only one of Oakland’s six losses was by less than 7 points; they’re 3-3 as road dog, but were outscored 44-10 in second half of last three games. AFC south home favorites are 6-8 out of division; AFC West road underdogs are 5-7. Three of last four Jaguar home games went over total.
• #107 BENGALS (2-10) @ #108 STEELERS (9-3) - Roethlisberger had broken nose operated on during week, is expected to play here. Pitt (-5.5) hung on to beat Bengals 27-21 in Week 9 Monday nighter, their 13th win in last 18 series games, but Cincy is 3-2 SU in last five visits here. Steelers won last three games overall, allowing 9.7 ppg (two TDs on 33 drives); they’re 3-2 at home, winning by 6-18-32 points (2-2 as home favorite). Bengals haven’t won since baseball season, losing last nine games- they’re 1-3 as a road underdog, losing away games by 14-3-7-6-16 points. Dogs are 5-2 vs spread in AFC North divisional games this year. Last three Steeler games stayed under total. In last three games, Bengals allowed 79 2nd half points in 90:00. Not good.
• #109 PATRIOTS (10-2) @ #110 BEARS (9-3) - Bears are 6-1 SU this year when an underdog. Short week and travel for NE squad off resounding 45-3 win in rivalry game Monday, their 4th win in row; Pats scored 40 ppg in those four wins (16 TDs/41 drives)- they were held to 14 in each of their losses. Chicago is 5-0 since its bye, allowing just 15.6 ppg (8 TDs on 50 drives); they’re getting balance on offense (123 RY/game) with only five giveaways during win streak. Teams are 8-1 vs spread the week after playing Detroit. Favorites are 3-5 vs spread the week after playing the Jets. Last six Patriot games went over total, as have five of their six road games. Patriots are 5-1 vs Chicago since 46-10 loss in Super Bowl XX.
• #111 BROWNS (5-7) @ #112 BILLS (2-10) - Dating back to ’09, Cleveland is 9-7 in last 16 games, 4-2 in last six; they won last three games in Lake Erie rivalry by 8-2-3 points, winning by unlikely 8-0/6-3 scores. Browns won last two weeks by combined total of 4 points; they’re +11 in turnovers over last six games (were -4 before that). Bills are 4-2-1 vs. spread in last seven games, with only one loss by more than 3 points in that stretch. Worst thing they did last week was KO Favre; Vikings played harder with Jackson at QB. Hillis could have big day against Buffalo defense that allowed 206-210 rushing yards in last two games. Bills were outscored 75-21 in first half of last three games. Home teams are 0-3 the week after playing Minnesota (were favored in all three). Six of last seven Cleveland games went over total.
• #113 GIANTS (8-4) @ #114 VIKINGS (5-7) - Minnesota 2-0 with Frazier as interim coach, allowing 13.5 ppg (forced 10 3/outs on 21 drives), but they won last week despite throwing four INTs (had five takeaways), which doesn’t happen much. Vikings won last four in series, including 44-7 debacle LY. Manning hasn’t been sacked in last five games; Giants were held to 20 or less points in all four losses- they’re 7-0 if they score more than 20 points. Minnesota had allowed 24+ points in five straight games before coaching change was made- is noticeable that team plays harder with Childress gone. NFC North underdogs are 9-6-1 vs spread in non-divisional games. Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Viking games, but 0-3 in Giants’ last three.
• #115 PACKERS (9-3) @ #116 LIONS (2-10) - Detroit outgained Pack 431-261 in 28-26 loss at Lambeau (+14) in Week 4, but 13 penalties, three turnovers (+1) cost them 10th straight series loss (six of seven by 10+ points). Green Bay won last four visits here by 7-11-23-22 points. Pack won five of last six games, with last three wins all by 18+ points; they’re 3-3 on road, 2-2 as road favorite. Detroit is 9-3 vs spread this year, with six of 10 losses by 5 or less points; they’re 3-1 as home dog, losing home games by 3-3-16-4 points (beat Rams/Redskins), but they’ve been outscored 73-19 in second half of their last three games. Teams are just 2-6 week after playing 49ers. Eight of last nine Detroit games went over the total.
• #117 FALCONS (10-2) @ #118 PANTHERS (1-11) - Carolina lost its last six games (1-5 vs spread); they’re 1-3 as home underdog, losing last two home games by combined score of 71-16. Hard to win without a competent QB. Falcons won last six games, covered last four, but only one of the six wins was by more than 7 points; they’re 7-3 as favorite this year, 3-1 on road. Home side won last five series games; Falcons lost last two visits here. Four of last five series totals in Charlotte were 33 or less. Home teams are 1-7 vs. spread in NFC south divisional games; home dogs are 0-3. Six of last seven Falcon games went over total, as did last four Carolina games. Nine of Panthers’ 11 losses are by 10+ points.
• #119 BUCCANEERS (7-5) @ #120 REDSKINS (5-7) - Tampa Bay is 4-1 in games decided by 4 or less points, Redskins are 4-3 in games decided by 5 or less. Skins are -8 in turnovers last four games, with only three takeaways. Suspension of Haynesworth could hurt; they’re allowing 50 more rushing yards per game in games he sat out. Home side won five of last six series games, with all six decided by 6 or less points; Washington lost four of last five games, scoring 13 ppg in last three (3 TD’s on 35 drives). Bucs are 7-0 vs teams with .500 or worse records, 0-5 vs winning teams; they’re 4-2 on road, losing at Atlanta-Baltimore. NFC South road favorites are 2-5 vs spread in non-divisional games. Last three Redskin games stayed under the total.
• #121 RAMS (6-6) @ #122 SAINTS (9-3) - Defending champs are hot, winning last five games (4-1 vs. spread), scoring 33 ppg in last four games (15 TDs on last 41 drives); Saints are 4-2 at home, 2-3-1 as home faves, winning by 5-2-10-15 points at home (lost to Falcons/Browns). Rams held eight of 12 foes to 18 or less points; they’re 1-3 in other four games, losing by 38-3-17 points, but are also 4-1 as road dogs. Third week in row on road for St Louis team that is 0-2 against teams with winning records this year (17-18 at Bucs, 17-34 vs Falcons- they’re 2-1 vs teams with .500 records); Rams won last two weeks on road- they’ve only turned ball over twice in last five games (+6). NFC West road underdogs are 6-8 vs. spread in non-divisional games. Saints’ last three games went over total.
• #123 SEAHAWKS (6-6) @ #124 49ERS (4-8) - Clueless Niners apparently fired their DB coach this week, and also changed QB’s again, as Alex Smith will start this game; they got crushed 31-6 (-3) at Seattle in season opener, converting just 1-15 on 3rd down, going 3/out on 6 of 11 drives. Seattle won five of last seven visits here, with three of last four totals at this site 34 or less. 49ers are 3-6 as favorite this year, 1-3 at home; they’re 2-3 at Candlestick, beating Oakland 17-9, Rams 23-20 in OT. Seahawks lost four of last six games; they’re 2-4 on road, 2-3 as road dog, losing away games by 17-17-30-15 points (won at Chicago/Arizona). Underdogs are 5-2-1 vs spread in NFC West divisional games this season. Last five Seattle games went over the total.
• #125 DOLPHINS (6-6) @ #126 JETS (9-3) - Jets got whacked 45-3 Monday night, ending 4-game win streak; they were held without TD in all three losses. Gang Green is 2-3 as home favorite, winning home tilts by 14-9-3-16 points (lost to Ravens/Packers). Dolphins are 5-1 on road, 4-1 as road dog; only road loss was 26-10 at Baltimore. Miami won three of last four series games, after losing previous eight; average total in their last three visits here, 51.7. Jets (+2) won first matchup this year 31-23 in Week 3, as Sanchez averaged 9.1 ypa and Jets converted 6-11 on 3rd down. Home sides are 2-5 vs. spread in AFC East divisional games. Nine of last eleven Jet games went over total, but Jets haven’t scored first half TD in either of their last two games.
• #127 BRONCOS (3-9) @ #128 CARDINALS (3-9) - Not lot to choose from here; Denver just fired its coach- they’ve lost seven of last eight games, are 5-17 in last 22 games overall. Arizona lost its last seven games, is starting Fordham rookie Skelton here; he has strong arm, but is very raw. Cardinals lost last four home games, allowing 30 ppg; they’ve gone 3/out on 18 of last 34 drives at home, and didn’t score TD in last two games (21 drives). Denver lost its last four road games by average of 12 points. NFC West home underdogs are 5-3 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC West favorites are 9-7, 2-2 on road. Teams are 2-7 (4-2 vs spread as dogs) week after playing the Rams; favorites are 2-0-1 week after playing the Chiefs. Seven of last ten Arizona games went over the total.
• #129 CHIEFS (8-4) @ #130 CHARGERS (6-6) - Favorites are 0-7 vs spread week after playing Oakland. Chiefs won last three games, running ball for average of 204.7 ypg; they’re just 2-4 on road, winning 16-14 in Cleveland (+3), 42-24 in Seattle (-1.5) but they did beat San Diego 21-14 in season opener (+4.5), despite being outgained by 192 yards. KC ran punt back for TD in that game, their first series win in last six tries. KC lost five of last six visits here, with only one of losses by less than 7 points. Chargers had 4-game win streak snapped last week; they’re 4-2 at home, with all four wins by 8+ points (4-2 as HF). Underdogs are 6-2 vs. spread in AFC West divisional games. Last three Charger games stayed under total, but six of last eight Chief games went over.
• #131 EAGLES (8-4) @ #132 COWBOYS (4-8) - Seven of last eight Eagle games went over total, as did last nine Dallas games. Cowboys are 3-1 under Garrett (4-0 vs spread), losing to Saints by FG, so they’re playing with more energy since coaching change; Pokes were 3-0 vs Philly LY, winning by average score of 26-10. Home team won five of last six series games, as Eagles lost last three visits here. Philly is 4-1 since its bye, but banged-up defense allowed 55 points in last two games (8 TDs on 19 drives)- they’ve scored 26+ points in all five games since their bye (4-1). Road team is 10-0-1 vs spread in game involving team that played Colts the previous week; home teams are 1-4 SU, 0-4-1 vs spread week after playing Indy, allowing 32.6 ppg.
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• AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK
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After a humiliating 28-13 home loss to Oakland last Sunday, (not to mention) it was the first time the Raiders have swept the season series from the Chargers since 2001. San Diego now finds itself in the proverbial ‘do or die’ situation at Qualcomm Stadium today. The Chargers had won four straight AFC West titles and were expected to take No. 5 but they enter this scuffle with a 1-3 mark in division play (two games behind KC) and a loss to the Chiefs could put an end to their season.
The stunning win by the Raiders which saw Oakland rush for 251 yards, snapped the Chargers streak of 18 consecutive SU wins in the month of December. "But we think it’s time for a new one to rise from the ashes of defeat!" The ATS archives offer little support for the visitors as Kansas City checks in just 1-4 ATS away from Arrowhead in this series off a SU win and head coach Todd Haley has gone a money-burning 3-7 ATS in division play, including 0-4 ATS off a SU win.
On the flip side, QB Philip Rivers owns some impressive numbers: he’s 11-2 SU and ATS at home when playing with revenge and 16-0 SU and 11-4-1 ATS in the regular season from Game Thirteen out. “If that doesn’t wet your appetite for something tasty, be aware that San Diego is an 'AWESOME' 21-3 ATS when they win SU in this series, including 12-1 ATS when the Chiefs are off a win!”
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• NFL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK
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For all intents and purposes, the 6-6 Fish are out of the playoff waters, or are they! A win today and a couple of home wins over Buffalo and Detroit may just make that season-ender in Foxborough worth something. Whatever may be the case, you know that the Dolphins would love nothing more than to spoil the season for Jason Taylor and the hated Jets. Miami will once again turn to Tony Sparano this time of year as the third-year head coach is 9-4 SU and a sparkling 12-1 ATS as a road dog from Game Four out, including 4-0 ATS versus division foes.
Sparano is also a card-carrying member of this week’s 'NFL SYSTEM' - PLAY ON: Any NFL Game Thirteen - 6-6 underdog off one loss exact if they are playing with same season revenge. ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 13-3, 81.2%.
Tuff Tony also puts his unbeaten 5-0 ATS 'Coaching Down The Stretch' mark to the test in this AFC East Tussle. After Monday’s beating, we expect Rex Ryan to have his Jets champing at the bit but it should be noted that Ryan is just 4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS as a home favorite of more than three points, including 0-2 SU and ATS in his career versus division foes. “Let’s also not forget that his defense was torched for 436 yards in the eight-point win at Miami earlier this season!”
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• INCREDIBLE STATS OF THE WEEK
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Have we finally seen the last of Brett Favre, Doubtful! The Ol’ Wrangler didn’t look ‘real comfortable’ on the Minnesota sidelines after injuring his throwing shoulder in the first series against Buffalo last Sunday, as he watched Tarvaris Jackson guide the Vikings to their highest scoring output (38) of the season. While interim HC Leslie Frazier says there will be no QB controversy when Favre declares himself eligible to play (after the week-long practices, of course), we have a feeling that Frazier would like to see what he has in Jackson.
We know that the 5-7 Vikings are not in the playoff hunt, but you can bet that the Giants would like to squash any of that talk. Minnesota has won the last four meetings in the series and handed the Giants season-ending losses each of the last two regular seasons, including a 44-7 embarrassment last year that denied the G-Men a winning campaign. Despite the recent run, don’t forget that the Purple People Eaters are 0-6 SU and ATS in this matchup when entering off back-to-back straight up wins.
It would also be wise to remember that the Vikings are 0-5 ATS before facing the Bears when taking on a foe off a straight up win and that Tom Coughlin’s road warriors are an 'INCREDIBLE' 13-2 SU and 14-1 ATS away off a straight up win versus a non-divisional opponents off a non-division encounter. While it appears that the Vikings are breathing fresh air under Frazier, a word of caution: both of the Vikings victories under his lead have been against teams (Washington, Buffalo) that are 7-17 SU this season.
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• AMAZING SITUATIONAL TRENDS
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Let’s hope Philadelphia QB Michael Vick is truly a changed man off the field because he’s one dynamic performer on the gridiron, and we’d like to see what he can accomplish should he remain injury-free for the next few seasons. That’s a really big IF! Because of Vick’s penchant for scrambling and running, Eagles HC Andy Reid is concerned that officials are letting defenders take shots at him that would ordinarily draw penalty flags against less mobile QB's. In fact, the Eagles are concerned enough that they filed a formal protest with the league last Friday. But right now the majority of talk swirling around this game centers on Dallas and the resurgent Cowboys.
Former offensive coordinator and new interim head coach Jason Garrett took over for Wade Phillips and is making a strong case to be named permanent head coach, leading Dallas to a 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS record over the past four weekends. Unfortunately, Garrett enters tonight’s NFC East grudge match with Philly a few bodies short, the biggest loss being star WR Dez Bryant who was lost for the remainder of the season after suffering a broken ankle returning a kickoff in last Sunday’s game at Indianapolis.
The Eagles rebounded nicely from a tough loss at Chicago with a 34-24 come from behind win over Houston on Thursday evening, so Philly arrives at Jerry Jones’ Palace after a few extra days of healing rest. Revenge is also a word likely to be mentioned before kickoff as the Green Birds were blanked 24-0 here in last year’s season finale. If you’re one of our weekly readers, you know of our unabashed admiration for the Eagles’ Andy Reid, so it’s no surprise that he shows up 15-5 ATS as a visitor, vs. NFC East opponents, including an 'AMAZING' 13-1 ATS in his career when these foes own a win percentage of less than .666 on the season.
Additional ammunition is provided by Philly’s 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS mark off a Thursday affair, including 4-0 SU and ATS off a win of six or more points. Texas football fans should also take note: the Eagles are 10-2 ATS in Game Thirteen of the season while the Cowboys are 0-6 ATS in their last six Game Thirteen situations.
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*** OAKLAND @ JACKSONVILLE (-4.5, O/U 43) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: Two of the league’s most surprising teams meet up here. The Jaguars are in the driver’s seat in the AFC South, thanks to strong play from David Garrard and a rejuvenated Maurice Jones-Drew in the running game. Their defense has also remained tough despite the loss of their best player, DE Aaron Kampman. The Raiders have used a strong pass defense and great play-calling to go 6-6. They haven’t fared well on the road though, going 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Jacksonville is 1-0 ATS (1-0 SU) vs. Oakland (1-0 ATS, 1-0 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--JACKSONVILLE is 13-2 ATS at home off a road win against a division rival since 1992.
--JACKSONVILLE is 6-19 ATS after outgaining opp by 150+ yards in last game since 1992.
--JACKSONVILLE is 1-8 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the L3 seasons.
--OAKLAND is 8-26 ATS away vs. defenses allowing a cmp. pct. of 61% or worse since 1992.
--OAKLAND is 1-9 ATS vs. teams allowing >=350 yards/game over the L3 seasons.
--OAKLAND is 20-40 ATS in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Any team against the total - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games against opponent after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games.
(67-24 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.6%, +40.6 units. Rating = 3*)
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*** CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH (-9, O/U 40.5) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Bengals have nothing to play for except pride when they visit their division rivals. Their own stupidity cost them a chance to beat the Saints a week ago (getting beat by a “draw ‘em offsides” play). They swept the Steelers last year but have dropped six of eight SU and ATS against Pittsburgh overall. In Week 9, they trailed by 20 in the second half before a comeback fell just short despite the efforts of Terrell Owens (10 catches, 141 yards, 2 TDs). Series History – Last 5 seasons: Pittsburgh is 8-4 ATS (8-4 SU) vs. Cincinnati (2-3 ATS, 2-3 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--PITTSBURGH is 76-53 OVER after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game since 1992.
--PITTSBURGH is 54-29 OVER at home in games played on a grass field since 1992.
--PITTSBURGH is 8-1 OVER off a division game over the L2 seasons.
--CINCINNATI is 0-7 ATS vs. teams who give up 17 or less points/game over the L3 seasons.
--CINCINNATI is 10-23 ATS against conference opponents over the L3 seasons.
--CINCINNATI is 20-6 OVER after 6 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points - after 7 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins.
(22-5 since 1983.) (81.5%, +16.5 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** NEW ENGLAND (-3, O/U 40.5) @ CHICAGO ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Bears will get their biggest test of the season against the Patriots. They’ve caught some breaks the past couple of weeks, playing against a speedy Eagles offense on a torn up Soldier Field turf and squeaking past a Lions team starting their thirdstring quarterback. Since 2005, the Patriots are 20-2 SU (though only 12-10 ATS) against NFC opponents during the regular season. They have the kind of diverse offensive attack that the Bears defense hasn’t often seen in recent years. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Chicago is 1-0 ATS (0-1 SU) vs. New England (0-0 ATS, 0-0 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--CHICAGO is 8-20 ATS at home off 2 or more consecutive overs since 1992.
--CHICAGO is 12-3 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive losses ATS over the L2 seasons.
--CHICAGO is 11-3 UNDER vs. teams allowing <= 7.5 yards per return over the L3 seasons.
--N.E. is 34-16 ATS away vs. teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better since 1992.
--N.E. is 57-35 ATS vs. teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better since 1992.
--N.E. is 58-36 ATS vs. teams w/ winning record in second half of the season since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play On - Road favorites of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line - off a blowout win by 28 points or more over a division rival, with a winning record on the season.
(24-5 since 1983.) (82.8%, +18.5 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** CLEVELAND @ BUFFALO (-1, O/U 41) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Browns have dominated the Erie region when these teams have met in the past. The Bills and Browns have met each of the past three seasons (including the past two years at Buffalo), with Cleveland winning SU and ATS in all three match-ups. The Browns seem to play tight games every week, while Buffalo’s new pass-first offense has led to some big point swings in both directions. The difference could be Peyton Hillis, who could overpower a weak Buffalo run defense, and the potential return of Colt McCoy. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Buffalo is 0-3 ATS (0-3 SU) vs. Cleveland (0-2 ATS, 0-2 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--BUFFALO is 31-52 ATS after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.
--BUFFALO is 72-42 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
--BUFFALO is 12-3 UNDER after allowing 24+ points in the first half last game since 1992.
--CLEVELAND is 6-0 ATS in games played on turf over the L3 seasons.
--CLEVELAND is 10-3 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins ATS over the L2 seasons.
--Eric Mangini is 14-4 ATS away in the second half of the season.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Any team where the first half total is between 18 and 21 - after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game against opponent after a loss by 14 or more points.
(36-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.6%, +23.9 units. Rating = 3*)
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*** NY GIANTS (-3, O/U 43) @ MINNESOTA ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The big question is who will be under center for the Vikings. Brett Favre missed most of Minnesota’s Week 13 win with a shoulder injury. Tavaris Jackson was up-and-down in replacing him, completing15 of 22 passes but also getting intercepted three times. The Giants defense has been dominant over the past six quarters and could rattle Jackson. Eli Manning could also be getting at least one of his top two receivers Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith back, and should benefit from escaping the winds of the Meadowlands. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Minnesota is 3-1 ATS (4-0 SU) vs. NY Giants (1-1 ATS, 2-0 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--MINNESOTA is 11-2 UNDER at home off a home win by 10 points or more since 1992.
--MINNESOTA is 7-0 UNDER at home after leading last game by 21+ pts at half since 1992.
--MINNESOTA is 24-9 OVER vs. teams who force 2.5+ TO/game on the season since 1992.
--NY GIANTS are 9-0 OVER vs. teams allowing >= 24 yards per return over the L3 seasons.
--NY GIANTS are 36-14 UNDER away after failing to cover in 2 of last 3 games since 1992.
--NY GIANTS are 8-0 OVER after leading last game by 14+ points at half over L3 seasons.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Against - Road favorites vs. the 1rst half line - after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games, in December games.
(28-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.0%, +20.3 units. Rating = 4*)
__________________________________________________
*** GREEN BAY (-6.5, O/U 47) @ DETROIT ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: Detroit will be looking to snap yet another long losing streak: The Lions haven’t beaten Green Bay since the 2005 season-opener, losing 10 straight to the Pack (going 3-7 ATS in that span). They did stay close in Lambeau earlier this year, but a blowout is certainly a possibility with the Packers’ passing game playing much better since that last meeting. Detroit has one the league’s weakest secondaries and not much of a running game to control the clock. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Detroit is 4-7 ATS (1-10 SU) vs. Green Bay (1-4 ATS, 1-4 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--DETROIT is 6-0 OVER at home in dome games this season.
--DETROIT is 30-13 OVER revenging a close loss by 7 points or less to opponent since 1992.
--DETROIT is 34-12 OVER at home vs. teams w/ comp pct. of 61% or better since 1992.
--GREEN BAY is 7-0 ATS vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yds/game over L2 seasons.
--GREEN BAY is 10-2 ATS vs. teams with a losing record over the L2 seasons.
--GREEN BAY is 13-4 ATS after gaining 400+ total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Home teams against the 1rst half total - poor rushing team (70-95 RY/G) against an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/G) after 8+ games.
(60-20 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.0%, +38 units. Rating = 3*)
__________________________________________________
*** ATLANTA (-7, O/U 42.5) @ CAROLINA ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Falcons continue to make things interesting, scoring another fourth-quarter comeback win last week. They have every advantage over the Panthers in this one, especially with their power running game against a Carolina defense that can’t stop the run. The Falcons are 4-2 SU and ATS on the road, and one of those ATS losses was in Pittsburgh on an overtime touchdown. Carolina has lost their past two home games by a combined score of 71-16 as they play out the string in a nightmare season. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Carolina is 6-4 ATS (6-4 SU) vs. Atlanta (3-2 ATS, 3-2 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--CAROLINA is 7-0 ATS at home off 4 or more consecutive overs since 1992.
--CAROLINA is 8-1 ATS off 4 or more consecutive overs since 1992.
--CAROLINA is 25-9 OVER after failing to cover in 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992.
--ATLANTA is 9-25 ATS vs. teams allowing cmp. % of 61% or worse in 2nd half of year since 1992.
--ATLANTA is 7-20 ATS vs. teams allowing >=130 rush yd/gm in 2nd half of year since 1992.
--ATLANTA is 9-1 OVER away against conference opponents over the L2 seasons.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Road teams vs. the 1rst half total - off a close wins by 7 points or less over a division rival, in the last 4 weeks of the regular season.
(25-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (86.2%, +20.6 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** TAMPA BAY (-2, O/U 41) @ WASHINGTON ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Bucs look to be the next team to steamroll the Redskins. Washington couldn’t contain the Giants’ power running game last week. Tampa will give them a heavy dose of their super-sized back LeGarrette Blount, who’s a lot like a young Brandon Jacobs. Tampa has covered in their past eight road games (6-2 SU in that span). Washington may get to deploy their own big back, Ryan Torain, who’s been out since Week 8 with a hamstring injury. They seem unlikely to succeed in throwing it against Tampa’s strong CBs. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Washington is 1-3 ATS (2-3 SU) vs. Tampa Bay (0-1 ATS, 1-0 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--WASH is 0-7 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game over the L3 seasons.
--WASH is 9-25 ATS at home after a game with a TO margin of -2 or worse since 1992.
--WASH is 8-1 UNDER after scoring 7 pts or less in 1st half in 2 straight games over L3 years.
--TAMPA BAY is 6-0 ATS in road lined games this season.
--TAMPA BAY is 30-13 UNDER against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
--TAMPA BAY is 64-40 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Under - Any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points - in a game involving two average offensive teams (18-23 PPG) after 8 or more games, after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games.
(22-4 over the last 10 seasons.) (84.6%, +17.6 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** ST LOUIS @ NEW ORLEANS (-9, O/U 47) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: It’s a key game for both teams’ postseason plans. Sam Bradford has played like a veteran all year, but he hasn’t played in noise like they’ll have in the Superdome, or against a defense as aggressive as the Saints’. The Rams have won three straight ATS on the road and four of five ATS on the year. The Saints had been shaky at home early this year but scored impressive victories in their past two games (20-10 over Pittsburgh, 34-19 over Seattle). Series History – Last 5 seasons: New Orleans is 0-3 ATS (1-2 SU) vs. ST Louis (0-1 ATS, 0-1 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--NEW ORLEANS is 7-21 ATS at home after winning 4 or 5 out of last 6 games since 1992.
--NEW ORLEANS is 10-26 ATS at home in last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
--NEW ORLEANS is 13-29 ATS at home in December games since 1992.
--ST LOUIS is 5-19 ATS away after allowing 150 or less pass yards in last game since 1992.
--ST LOUIS is 1-11 ATS away vs. teams outscoring opp by 6+ PPG on the season since 1992.
--ST LOUIS is 17-37 ATS away off 1 or more consecutive unders since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play On - Home favorites of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line - off 3 or more consecutive overs, a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential).
(25-6 since 1983.) (80.6%, +18.4 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO (-4.5, O/U 41) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: Both teams are looking to hold on to their NFC West title hopes. The Seahawks simply dismantled the Niners in the season-opener in Seattle, as San Francisco struggled just to get their plays called. The Niners haven’t been as disastrously bad on offense since though, and their defense has been solid this year. Seattle is traditionally awful on the road, going 3-11 SU and ATS away from home over the past two seasons, including a 23-10 loss in San Fran in Week 2 of 2009. Series History – Last 5 seasons: San Francisco is 5-6 ATS (4-7 SU) vs. Seattle (3-2 ATS, 2-3 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--SAN FRAN is 9-1 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses ATS over the L2 seasons.
--SAN FRAN is 11-23 ATS at home after a 2 game road trip since 1992.
--SAN FRAN is 10-2 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive losses ATS over the L2 seasons.
--SEATTLE is 0-9 ATS off a home win over the L3 seasons.
--SEATTLE is 0-9 ATS away after 1 or more consecutive wins over the L3 seasons.
--SEATTLE is 1-9 ATS away after playing a game at home over the L2 seasons.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Against - Road underdogs of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% in the second half of the season.
(28-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (82.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** MIAMI @ NY JETS (-5, O/U 40) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Jets are looking for the series sweep of the Dolphins. In their first meeting, Mark Sanchez
was efficient (and without a suspended Santonio Holmes) and the Jets jumped out early before hanging on in a game where they were out-gained and penalized for more yards. Miami continues to find ways to lose close games, but they’ve been much better on the road this year, going 5-1 SU and ATS away from home this season. Series History – Last 5 seasons: NY Jets is 7-3 ATS (7-4 SU) vs. Miami (2-2 ATS, 3-2 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--NY JETS are 48-26 UNDER in December games since 1992.
--NY JETS are 72-40 under the 1H total at home after first month of the season since 1992.
--NY JETS are 28-10 under the 1H total at home in December games since 1992.
--MIAMI is 13-3 ATS away after the first month of the season over the L3 seasons.
--MIAMI is 28-9 UNDER revenging an upset loss against opponent as a favorite since 1992.
--MIAMI is 22-8 UNDER vs. teams outscoring opp by 6+ PPG in 2nd half of year since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Against - Any team vs the 1rst half line - average rushing team (95-125 RY/game) against a team with a good rushing defense (70-95 RY/game), after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games.
(23-4 over the last 10 seasons.) (85.2%, +18.6 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** DENVER (-4.5, O/U 42) @ ARIZONA ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: Both of these teams are struggling desperately down the stretch. The desert was once one of the more difficult places to play in the NFL, but the Cards have dropped four in a row SU and ATS at home, getting outscored 82-30 in their past three home games. They are essentially hopeless in the passing game, with Derek Anderson and Max Hall two of the league’s worst quarterbacks to this point. Despite an explosive offense, Denver has lost four in a row SU on the road (1-3 ATS) while failing to score more than 17 points in any of them. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Arizona is 0-1 ATS (0-1 SU) vs. Denver (0-1 ATS, 0-1 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--ARIZONA is 30-10 ATS at home after 2 consec. games w/ TO margin of -1 or worse since 1992.
--ARIZONA is 11-2 ATS at home vs. teams averaging 235+ pass yds/gm in year’s 2nd half since 1992.
--ARIZONA is 49-30 OVER in dome games since 1992.
--DENVER is 2-14 ATS vs. teams with a losing record over the L3 seasons.
--DENVER is 31-13 OVER after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992.
--DENVER is 10-1 ATS away after failing to cover in 6 or 7 out of last 8 games since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play On - Home teams vs. the 1rst half line - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in the last 4 weeks of the regular season.
(22-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (84.6%, +17.6 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** KANSAS CITY @ SAN DIEGO (-7, O/U 46.5) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Chargers are trying to stave off extinction. Normally unbeatable in December, Philip Rivers was off and the special teams were sloppy again in a 28-13 home loss to Oakland in Week 13. The Chiefs didn’t look sharp either, but still managed to squeak by Denver at home. K.C. beat the Chargers in a monsoon in the season opener, 21-14, thanks largely to strong special teams play. However, the Chiefs have dropped four of five away from home. Series History – Last 5 seasons: San Diego is 5-6 ATS (7-4 SU) vs. Kansas City (3-2 ATS, 4-1 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--SAN DIEGO is 3-15 ATS at home off a loss by 10+ points to a division rival since 1992.
--SAN DIEGO is 28-12 UNDER at home vs. teams scoring 24+ points/game since 1992.
--SAN DIEGO is 71-48 UNDER at home against conference opponents since 1992.
--K.C. is 6-21 ATS away after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game since 1992.
--K.C. is 1-10 ATS after gaining 175 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992.
--K.C. is 3-13 ATS away after gaining 400+ yards/game over their last 3 games since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Road teams vs. the 1rst half total - off a close wins by 7 points or less over a division rival, in the last 4 weeks of the regular season.
(25-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (86.2%, +20.6 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** PHILADELPHIA (-3.5, O/U 50.5) @ DALLAS ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Eagles have a golden opportunity to reverse their recent bad fortune against Dallas. Last year, Tony Romo’s Cowboys blew away Donovan McNabb’s Eagles in a three-game sweep. This year, the Eagles have obviously upgraded under center with Michael Vick while Dallas continues to go with back-up Jon Kitna (and rookie wide receiver Dez Bryant will be out with a broken ankle). As an added bonus, Philly has extra time to rest and prepare for this one after having played on Thursday night in Week 13. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Dallas is 6-5 ATS (7-4 SU) vs. Philadelphia (3-3 ATS, 4-2 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--DALLAS is 9-0 OVER after the first month of the season this season.
--DALLAS is 8-0 OVER in games played on turf this season.
--DALLAS is 7-0 OVER vs. teams with a comp. pct. of 61% or better this season.
--PHILLY is 28-12 ATS vs. teams allowing 235 or more passing yards/game since 1992.
--PHILLY is 17-5 ATS vs. teams allowing >=5.65 yds/play in 2nd half of season since 1992.
--PHILLY is 17-7 OVER in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the L3 seasons.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Any team where the first half total is 25 or higher (DALLAS) - after playing their last game on the road, in December games.
(32-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (80.0%, +23.2 units. Rating = 4*)
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• HIGHEST RATED ATS SUPER SITUATIONS NFL - Display the Highest Rated Active NFL - Against the Spread Super Situations for Upcoming Games.
Situational analysis uncovers conditions and patterns where teams have consistently outperformed or underperformed their normal levels. These systems are not team specific - the principle is that teams fall into patterns regardless of personnel (i.e. good passing teams, teams seeking revenge, cold teams on a losing streak, etc.).
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4* CINCINNATI +9 - (82.8%)
4* DETROIT +6.5 - (81.1%)
3* ST LOUIS +9 - (78.9%)
--PLAY ON - Road teams (CINCINNATI) - after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers.
(24-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.8%, +18.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (16-14 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 5.2
The average score in these games was: Team 24.4, Opponent 20.7 (Average point differential = +3.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 17 (56.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (39-15).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (61-40).
--PLAY ON - Home teams (DETROIT) - after 3 or more consecutive losses, a terrible team (<=25%) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season.
(30-7 over the last 10 seasons.) (81.1%, +22.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (15-25 over the last 10 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.2
The average score in these games was: Team 21.4, Opponent 24.8 (Average point differential = -3.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 11 (29.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (16-4).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (71-42).
--PLAY ON - Road underdogs or pick (ST LOUIS) - poor passing team (5.3-5.9 PYA) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games, after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game.
(30-8 since 1983.) (78.9%, +21.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (15-24)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.6
The average score in these games was: Team 16.4, Opponent 18.6 (Average point differential = -2.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 16 (42.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (4-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (10-3).
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• HIGHEST RATED OVER/UNDER SUPER SITUATIONS NFL - Display the Highest Rated Active NFL - Over/Under Super Situations for Upcoming Games.
Situational analysis uncovers conditions and patterns where teams have consistently outperformed or underperformed their normal levels. These systems are not team specific - the principle is that teams fall into patterns regardless of personnel (i.e. good passing teams, teams seeking revenge, cold teams on a losing streak, etc.).
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4* ATLANTA/CAROLINA OVER 42.5 - (86.2%)
4* CLEVELAND/BUFFALO UNDER 42 - (84.6%)
4* GREEN BAY/DETROIT UNDER 47 - (84.4%)
4* DENVER/ARIZONA UNDER 42 - (83.3%)
3* OAKLAND/JACKSONVILLE OVER 43 - (78.6%)
--PLAY OVER - Road teams vs. the 1rst half total (ATLANTA) - off a close wins by 7 points or less over a division rival, in the last 4 weeks of the regular season.
(25-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (86.2%, +20.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 21.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 14.6, Opponent 12 (Total first half points scored = 26.6)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (42-24).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (66-56).
--PLAY UNDER - Any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (BUFFALO) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (18-23 PPG) after 8 or more games, after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games.
(22-4 over the last 10 seasons.) (84.6%, +17.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 39.1
The average score in these games was: Team 17.7, Opponent 16.1 (Total points scored = 33.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 10 (40% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (10-3).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (80-47).
--PLAY UNDER - Any team against the total (GREEN BAY) - good passing team (230-265 PY/G) against an average passing defense (185-230 PY/G) after 8+ games, after gaining 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games.
(27-5 over the last 10 seasons.) (84.4%, +21.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 45.1
The average score in these games was: Team 19.4, Opponent 17.9 (Total points scored = 37.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 16 (48.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (14-3).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (48-24).
--PLAY UNDER - Any team against the total (ARIZONA) - poor passing team (5.3-5.9 PYA) against a horrible passing defense (>=7.3 PYA) after 8+ games, after gaining 4.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game.
(25-5 since 1983.) (83.3%, +19.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 39.5
The average score in these games was: Team 16, Opponent 16 (Total points scored = 32)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 16 (59.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (1-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (1-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (3-0).
--PLAY OVER - Any team against the total (OAKLAND) - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games against opponent after covering the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games.
(33-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.6%, +23.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 42.1
The average score in these games was: Team 23.3, Opponent 22.9 (Total points scored = 46.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 19 (46.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-4).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (63-40).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (149-122).
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As always, the best way to take advantage of Stan 'The Man's Sharp Information found each and every day right here in his Stat/Systems Report is to join for a Week or Month, so that you get every single one of his plays, including all of his Late Information releases. “Do it now and Save Big, subscribe today! - Call me toll-free in the office @ 1-800-351-4640 - You'll be real glad you did" -Stan!
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• HIGHEST RATED FIRST HALF ATS SUPER SITUATIONS NFL - Display the Highest Rated Active NFL - First Half Line Super Situations for Upcoming Games.
Situational analysis uncovers conditions and patterns where teams have consistently outperformed or underperformed their normal levels. These systems are not team specific - the principle is that teams fall into patterns regardless of personnel (i.e. good passing teams, teams seeking revenge, cold teams on a losing streak, etc.).
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5* ATLANTA -3.5 - (88.0%)
5* DALLAS +2 - (83.3%)
4* NEW ENGLAND -1.5 - (82.8%)
4* MINNESOTA +1.5 - (82.8%)
4* JACKSONVILLE -2 - (82.4%)
3* PITTSBURGH -5 - (79.4%)
--PLAY AGAINST - Home underdogs of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (CAROLINA) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, versus division opponents.
(22-3 since 1983.) (88.0%, +18.7 units. Rating = 5*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 14.3, Opponent 6.6 (Average first half point differential = +7.8)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (0-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (0-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (7-0).
--PLAY ON - Home underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (DALLAS) - with a good offense - averaging 5.4 or more yards/play, after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games.
(25-5 since 1983.) (83.3%, +19.5 units. Rating = 5*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 11.2, Opponent 9.4 (Average first half point differential = +1.8)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (1-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (5-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (12-2).
--PLAY ON - Favorites vs. the 1rst half line (NEW ENGLAND) - an excellent offensive team (>=27 PPG) against a good defensive team (14-18 PPG) after 8+ games, after a win by 21 or more points.
(24-5 since 1983.) (82.8%, +18.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 4.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 17.6, Opponent 6.4 (Average first half point differential = +11.2)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (5-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (9-1).
--PLAY AGAINST - Road favorites vs. the 1rst half line (NY GIANTS) - after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games, in the last 4 weeks of the regular season.
(24-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.8%, +18.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 11.6, Opponent 9.8 (Average first half point differential = +1.8)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (34-33).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (65-72).
--PLAY AGAINST - Road underdogs of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (OAKLAND) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% in the second half of the season.
(28-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (82.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 16.3, Opponent 6.5 (Average first half point differential = +9.8)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (16-4).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (56-46).
--PLAY ON - Home favorites of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (PITTSBURGH) - after beating the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season.
(27-7 since 1983.) (79.4%, +19.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 4.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 15.4, Opponent 3.8 (Average first half point differential = +11.6)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (1-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (11-4).
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• HIGHEST RATED FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER SUPER SITUATIONS NFL - Display the Highest Rated Active NFL - First Half Line Super Situations for Upcoming Games.
Situational analysis uncovers conditions and patterns where teams have consistently outperformed or underperformed their normal levels. These systems are not team specific - the principle is that teams fall into patterns regardless of personnel (i.e. good passing teams, teams seeking revenge, cold teams on a losing streak, etc.).
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5* MIAMI/NY JETS UNDER 20 - (82.8%)
4* DENVER/ARIZONA UNDER 21 - (81.2%)
3* NY GIANTS/MINNESOTA UNDER 21.5 - (77.3%)
3* OAKLAND/JACKSONVILLE UNDER 21.5 - (76.3%)
--PLAY UNDER - Any team where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (NY JETS) - team outrushing opponents by 60+ YPG against an average rushing team (+/- 30 RY/G) after 8+ games, after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games.
(24-5 since 1983.) (82.8%, +18.5 units. Rating = 5*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 19.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 10.2, Opponent 5.5 (Total first half points scored = 15.6)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (5-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (10-1).
--PLAY UNDER - Any team vs the 1rst half total (ARIZONA) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, in a game involving two terrible teams (<=25%).
(26-6 since 1983.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 20.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 6.8, Opponent 7.8 (Total first half points scored = 14.6)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (1-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (2-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (6-3).
--PLAY UNDER - Road teams where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 (NY GIANTS) - after a game where they forced 5 or more turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers.
(34-10 since 1983.) (77.3%, +23 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 22.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 8.8, Opponent 10.4 (Total first half points scored = 19.2)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (5-2).
--PLAY UNDER - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 (JACKSONVILLE) - excellent rushing team (>=150 RY/game) against a good rushing team (125-150 RY/game), after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game.
(29-9 since 1983.) (76.3%, +19.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 22.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 9.2, Opponent 9.4 (Total first half points scored = 18.6)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (10-1).
***** SUNDAY, DECEMBER 12TH NFL INFORMATION *****
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(All results ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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• COACHING DOWN THE STRETCH
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The final four weeks of the NFL season are tantamount to the stretch run of a Graded Stakes race. It’s where big races are
won and lost. It’s been said that if you don’t have the horse, you won’t win the race. For the most part this adage is right on the money. There are times, though, when the ride the horse gets by the jockey can put the team together in the winner’s circle. It’s why good jockeys are almost always atop quality horses in big races.
The same holds true for head coaches in the NFL. They too are the pilots, guiding their team to the wire, with game plans
designed for success – or failure – whichever the case may be. Listed below are the BEST and WORST current head coaches and their NFL career ATS records during Games 13-16 – minimum four occurrences (current team in parenthesis). All results are ATS (Against The Spread).
• BEST
--------
--HOME: KUBIAK (Houston) 8-2
--AWAY: SPARANO (Miami) 5-0
--FAVORITE: FOX (Carolina) 11-7
--DOG: MCCARTHY (G Bay) 5-0
• WORST
-----------
--HOME: LEWIS (Cincinnati) 4-8-1
--AWAY: WHISENHUNT (Ariz) 0-5
--FAV: CARROLL (Seattle) 0-6
--DOG: DEL RIO (Jacksonville) 5-10
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• 2-MINUTE DRILL
----------------------
--Oakland DEC: 1-11 dogs off div vs non div… 1-9 A w/ non div rev... 5-2 OVER in 2nd of BB RG’s
--JACKSONVILLE SERIES: 3-0 L3… 8-0 favs off RG vs opp off SU dog win... 7-2 OVER home off BB RG’s
--Cincinnati 2-6 vs opp off SU dog win… 0-5 O/U Game Thirteen... 8-2 OVER in 1st of BB div gms
--PITTSBURGH SERIES: 6-2 L8… 6-1 H vs < .500 div opp (1-0 this year)... 7-0 OVER aft Ravens
--New England 0-7 favs off SU div win vs .700 > opp off BB SU wins... 0-5 UNDER off Monday
--CHICAGO SERIES: 4-1 L5 H… SMITH: 12-1 w/ rev vs opp off div... 1-6 UNDER home vs opp off Mon
--Cleveland 9-0 A vs .333 < opp… 10-2 vs AFC East (2-1 this year)... 3-7 UNDER non-div dogs 3 < pts
--BUFFALO 7-2 H off DD SU loss vs opp off SUATS win (0-1 this year)... 2-5 UNDER as HF’s 3 < pts
--Ny Giants DEC: 9-1 A vs < .500 opp off non div… 8-1 aft Redskins... 4-1 OVER aft Redskins
--MINNESOTA 0-7 dogs < 7 pts vs opp off BB SU wins (0-2 this year)... 4-1 OVER aft Bills
--Green Bay SERIES: 4-0 L4 A… 2-10 .500 > A vs div opp off div w/ rev... 1-4 UNDER div RF’s 3 > pts
--DETROIT 6-1 HD’s 7 > pts vs opp off SUATS home win... 1-4 UNDER div HD’s 5 > pts
--Atlanta 4-13 off BB SU wins vs opp off SU loss (2-1 this year)... 1-6 UNDER L7 away vs Panthers
--CAROLINA DEC: 13-3 dogs off SU loss… 7-2 HD’S 7 > pts... 2-6 UNDER in 1st of BB HG’s
--Tampa Bay 0-4 Game Thirteen… DEC: 1-7 A vs opp off SUATS div loss... 3-7 UNDER away vs NFC East
--WASHINGTON DEC: 10-1 dogs off SU loss vs opp w/ rev… 6-2-2 non div HD’s... 1-4 UNDER as dogs vs NFC South
--St. Louis 1-9 off div RG… 1-6 A aft allowing 10 < pts (1-1 this yr)... 4-1 OVER in 3rd straight RG
--NEW ORLEANS PAYTON: 7-1 off BB SU wins vs opp off BB SU wins... 7-2 OVER vs NFC West
--Seattle CARROLL: 2-15 off DD ATS win… 4-0 O/U Game Thirteen... 11-3 OVER as RD’s off BB HG’s
--S FRANCISCO 7-1 aft Green Bay vs .500 > foe… 6-2 w/ div revenge... 9-3 OVER as div favs 3 > pts
--Miami 5-1 vs .666 > div opp… SPARANO: 12-1 RD Game 4 >... 1-6 UNDER w/ div revenge
--NY JETS SERIES: 1-3 L4 … 1-7 O/U Game Thirteen... 2-7 UNDER vs div revenge
--Denver SERIES: 4-0 L4… 0-10 non div favs between div games... 5-0 OVER as favs vs NFC West
--ARIZONA 11-3 HD’s < 4 pts off BB SU losses (0-2 this year)... 5-0 OVER L5 vs Broncos
--Kansas City DEC: 1-7 off div HG… 1-5 A aft allowing 7 < pts... 2-7 UNDER away vs div revenge
--SAN DIEGO SERIES: 5-2 L7 H… TURNER: 13-2 off div vs .500 > opp... 1-4 UNDER home w/ div revenge
--Philadelphia 4-0 off SU Thursday win… 10-2 Game Thirteen... 7-1 OVER L8
--DALLAS 0-8 off SU non-div road win vs div opp off SU win... 7-0 OVER L7 vs. NFC.
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• SUNDAY'S QUICK HITS
--------------------------------------
• #105 RAIDERS (6-6) @ #106 JAGUARS (7-5) - Jags won four of last five games (5-0 vs spread), running ball for average of 184.6 ypg; they’ve won three of four games vs Oakland, winning last three meetings by average score of 27-9. Raiders lost 49-11 in only visit here, in ’07. Jaguars are 3-0 as a favorite this year, winning by 7-7-4 points; this is first time all year they’ve been favored by more than 2 points. Only one of Oakland’s six losses was by less than 7 points; they’re 3-3 as road dog, but were outscored 44-10 in second half of last three games. AFC south home favorites are 6-8 out of division; AFC West road underdogs are 5-7. Three of last four Jaguar home games went over total.
• #107 BENGALS (2-10) @ #108 STEELERS (9-3) - Roethlisberger had broken nose operated on during week, is expected to play here. Pitt (-5.5) hung on to beat Bengals 27-21 in Week 9 Monday nighter, their 13th win in last 18 series games, but Cincy is 3-2 SU in last five visits here. Steelers won last three games overall, allowing 9.7 ppg (two TDs on 33 drives); they’re 3-2 at home, winning by 6-18-32 points (2-2 as home favorite). Bengals haven’t won since baseball season, losing last nine games- they’re 1-3 as a road underdog, losing away games by 14-3-7-6-16 points. Dogs are 5-2 vs spread in AFC North divisional games this year. Last three Steeler games stayed under total. In last three games, Bengals allowed 79 2nd half points in 90:00. Not good.
• #109 PATRIOTS (10-2) @ #110 BEARS (9-3) - Bears are 6-1 SU this year when an underdog. Short week and travel for NE squad off resounding 45-3 win in rivalry game Monday, their 4th win in row; Pats scored 40 ppg in those four wins (16 TDs/41 drives)- they were held to 14 in each of their losses. Chicago is 5-0 since its bye, allowing just 15.6 ppg (8 TDs on 50 drives); they’re getting balance on offense (123 RY/game) with only five giveaways during win streak. Teams are 8-1 vs spread the week after playing Detroit. Favorites are 3-5 vs spread the week after playing the Jets. Last six Patriot games went over total, as have five of their six road games. Patriots are 5-1 vs Chicago since 46-10 loss in Super Bowl XX.
• #111 BROWNS (5-7) @ #112 BILLS (2-10) - Dating back to ’09, Cleveland is 9-7 in last 16 games, 4-2 in last six; they won last three games in Lake Erie rivalry by 8-2-3 points, winning by unlikely 8-0/6-3 scores. Browns won last two weeks by combined total of 4 points; they’re +11 in turnovers over last six games (were -4 before that). Bills are 4-2-1 vs. spread in last seven games, with only one loss by more than 3 points in that stretch. Worst thing they did last week was KO Favre; Vikings played harder with Jackson at QB. Hillis could have big day against Buffalo defense that allowed 206-210 rushing yards in last two games. Bills were outscored 75-21 in first half of last three games. Home teams are 0-3 the week after playing Minnesota (were favored in all three). Six of last seven Cleveland games went over total.
• #113 GIANTS (8-4) @ #114 VIKINGS (5-7) - Minnesota 2-0 with Frazier as interim coach, allowing 13.5 ppg (forced 10 3/outs on 21 drives), but they won last week despite throwing four INTs (had five takeaways), which doesn’t happen much. Vikings won last four in series, including 44-7 debacle LY. Manning hasn’t been sacked in last five games; Giants were held to 20 or less points in all four losses- they’re 7-0 if they score more than 20 points. Minnesota had allowed 24+ points in five straight games before coaching change was made- is noticeable that team plays harder with Childress gone. NFC North underdogs are 9-6-1 vs spread in non-divisional games. Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Viking games, but 0-3 in Giants’ last three.
• #115 PACKERS (9-3) @ #116 LIONS (2-10) - Detroit outgained Pack 431-261 in 28-26 loss at Lambeau (+14) in Week 4, but 13 penalties, three turnovers (+1) cost them 10th straight series loss (six of seven by 10+ points). Green Bay won last four visits here by 7-11-23-22 points. Pack won five of last six games, with last three wins all by 18+ points; they’re 3-3 on road, 2-2 as road favorite. Detroit is 9-3 vs spread this year, with six of 10 losses by 5 or less points; they’re 3-1 as home dog, losing home games by 3-3-16-4 points (beat Rams/Redskins), but they’ve been outscored 73-19 in second half of their last three games. Teams are just 2-6 week after playing 49ers. Eight of last nine Detroit games went over the total.
• #117 FALCONS (10-2) @ #118 PANTHERS (1-11) - Carolina lost its last six games (1-5 vs spread); they’re 1-3 as home underdog, losing last two home games by combined score of 71-16. Hard to win without a competent QB. Falcons won last six games, covered last four, but only one of the six wins was by more than 7 points; they’re 7-3 as favorite this year, 3-1 on road. Home side won last five series games; Falcons lost last two visits here. Four of last five series totals in Charlotte were 33 or less. Home teams are 1-7 vs. spread in NFC south divisional games; home dogs are 0-3. Six of last seven Falcon games went over total, as did last four Carolina games. Nine of Panthers’ 11 losses are by 10+ points.
• #119 BUCCANEERS (7-5) @ #120 REDSKINS (5-7) - Tampa Bay is 4-1 in games decided by 4 or less points, Redskins are 4-3 in games decided by 5 or less. Skins are -8 in turnovers last four games, with only three takeaways. Suspension of Haynesworth could hurt; they’re allowing 50 more rushing yards per game in games he sat out. Home side won five of last six series games, with all six decided by 6 or less points; Washington lost four of last five games, scoring 13 ppg in last three (3 TD’s on 35 drives). Bucs are 7-0 vs teams with .500 or worse records, 0-5 vs winning teams; they’re 4-2 on road, losing at Atlanta-Baltimore. NFC South road favorites are 2-5 vs spread in non-divisional games. Last three Redskin games stayed under the total.
• #121 RAMS (6-6) @ #122 SAINTS (9-3) - Defending champs are hot, winning last five games (4-1 vs. spread), scoring 33 ppg in last four games (15 TDs on last 41 drives); Saints are 4-2 at home, 2-3-1 as home faves, winning by 5-2-10-15 points at home (lost to Falcons/Browns). Rams held eight of 12 foes to 18 or less points; they’re 1-3 in other four games, losing by 38-3-17 points, but are also 4-1 as road dogs. Third week in row on road for St Louis team that is 0-2 against teams with winning records this year (17-18 at Bucs, 17-34 vs Falcons- they’re 2-1 vs teams with .500 records); Rams won last two weeks on road- they’ve only turned ball over twice in last five games (+6). NFC West road underdogs are 6-8 vs. spread in non-divisional games. Saints’ last three games went over total.
• #123 SEAHAWKS (6-6) @ #124 49ERS (4-8) - Clueless Niners apparently fired their DB coach this week, and also changed QB’s again, as Alex Smith will start this game; they got crushed 31-6 (-3) at Seattle in season opener, converting just 1-15 on 3rd down, going 3/out on 6 of 11 drives. Seattle won five of last seven visits here, with three of last four totals at this site 34 or less. 49ers are 3-6 as favorite this year, 1-3 at home; they’re 2-3 at Candlestick, beating Oakland 17-9, Rams 23-20 in OT. Seahawks lost four of last six games; they’re 2-4 on road, 2-3 as road dog, losing away games by 17-17-30-15 points (won at Chicago/Arizona). Underdogs are 5-2-1 vs spread in NFC West divisional games this season. Last five Seattle games went over the total.
• #125 DOLPHINS (6-6) @ #126 JETS (9-3) - Jets got whacked 45-3 Monday night, ending 4-game win streak; they were held without TD in all three losses. Gang Green is 2-3 as home favorite, winning home tilts by 14-9-3-16 points (lost to Ravens/Packers). Dolphins are 5-1 on road, 4-1 as road dog; only road loss was 26-10 at Baltimore. Miami won three of last four series games, after losing previous eight; average total in their last three visits here, 51.7. Jets (+2) won first matchup this year 31-23 in Week 3, as Sanchez averaged 9.1 ypa and Jets converted 6-11 on 3rd down. Home sides are 2-5 vs. spread in AFC East divisional games. Nine of last eleven Jet games went over total, but Jets haven’t scored first half TD in either of their last two games.
• #127 BRONCOS (3-9) @ #128 CARDINALS (3-9) - Not lot to choose from here; Denver just fired its coach- they’ve lost seven of last eight games, are 5-17 in last 22 games overall. Arizona lost its last seven games, is starting Fordham rookie Skelton here; he has strong arm, but is very raw. Cardinals lost last four home games, allowing 30 ppg; they’ve gone 3/out on 18 of last 34 drives at home, and didn’t score TD in last two games (21 drives). Denver lost its last four road games by average of 12 points. NFC West home underdogs are 5-3 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC West favorites are 9-7, 2-2 on road. Teams are 2-7 (4-2 vs spread as dogs) week after playing the Rams; favorites are 2-0-1 week after playing the Chiefs. Seven of last ten Arizona games went over the total.
• #129 CHIEFS (8-4) @ #130 CHARGERS (6-6) - Favorites are 0-7 vs spread week after playing Oakland. Chiefs won last three games, running ball for average of 204.7 ypg; they’re just 2-4 on road, winning 16-14 in Cleveland (+3), 42-24 in Seattle (-1.5) but they did beat San Diego 21-14 in season opener (+4.5), despite being outgained by 192 yards. KC ran punt back for TD in that game, their first series win in last six tries. KC lost five of last six visits here, with only one of losses by less than 7 points. Chargers had 4-game win streak snapped last week; they’re 4-2 at home, with all four wins by 8+ points (4-2 as HF). Underdogs are 6-2 vs. spread in AFC West divisional games. Last three Charger games stayed under total, but six of last eight Chief games went over.
• #131 EAGLES (8-4) @ #132 COWBOYS (4-8) - Seven of last eight Eagle games went over total, as did last nine Dallas games. Cowboys are 3-1 under Garrett (4-0 vs spread), losing to Saints by FG, so they’re playing with more energy since coaching change; Pokes were 3-0 vs Philly LY, winning by average score of 26-10. Home team won five of last six series games, as Eagles lost last three visits here. Philly is 4-1 since its bye, but banged-up defense allowed 55 points in last two games (8 TDs on 19 drives)- they’ve scored 26+ points in all five games since their bye (4-1). Road team is 10-0-1 vs spread in game involving team that played Colts the previous week; home teams are 1-4 SU, 0-4-1 vs spread week after playing Indy, allowing 32.6 ppg.
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• AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK
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After a humiliating 28-13 home loss to Oakland last Sunday, (not to mention) it was the first time the Raiders have swept the season series from the Chargers since 2001. San Diego now finds itself in the proverbial ‘do or die’ situation at Qualcomm Stadium today. The Chargers had won four straight AFC West titles and were expected to take No. 5 but they enter this scuffle with a 1-3 mark in division play (two games behind KC) and a loss to the Chiefs could put an end to their season.
The stunning win by the Raiders which saw Oakland rush for 251 yards, snapped the Chargers streak of 18 consecutive SU wins in the month of December. "But we think it’s time for a new one to rise from the ashes of defeat!" The ATS archives offer little support for the visitors as Kansas City checks in just 1-4 ATS away from Arrowhead in this series off a SU win and head coach Todd Haley has gone a money-burning 3-7 ATS in division play, including 0-4 ATS off a SU win.
On the flip side, QB Philip Rivers owns some impressive numbers: he’s 11-2 SU and ATS at home when playing with revenge and 16-0 SU and 11-4-1 ATS in the regular season from Game Thirteen out. “If that doesn’t wet your appetite for something tasty, be aware that San Diego is an 'AWESOME' 21-3 ATS when they win SU in this series, including 12-1 ATS when the Chiefs are off a win!”
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• NFL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK
-----------------------------------
For all intents and purposes, the 6-6 Fish are out of the playoff waters, or are they! A win today and a couple of home wins over Buffalo and Detroit may just make that season-ender in Foxborough worth something. Whatever may be the case, you know that the Dolphins would love nothing more than to spoil the season for Jason Taylor and the hated Jets. Miami will once again turn to Tony Sparano this time of year as the third-year head coach is 9-4 SU and a sparkling 12-1 ATS as a road dog from Game Four out, including 4-0 ATS versus division foes.
Sparano is also a card-carrying member of this week’s 'NFL SYSTEM' - PLAY ON: Any NFL Game Thirteen - 6-6 underdog off one loss exact if they are playing with same season revenge. ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 13-3, 81.2%.
Tuff Tony also puts his unbeaten 5-0 ATS 'Coaching Down The Stretch' mark to the test in this AFC East Tussle. After Monday’s beating, we expect Rex Ryan to have his Jets champing at the bit but it should be noted that Ryan is just 4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS as a home favorite of more than three points, including 0-2 SU and ATS in his career versus division foes. “Let’s also not forget that his defense was torched for 436 yards in the eight-point win at Miami earlier this season!”
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• INCREDIBLE STATS OF THE WEEK
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Have we finally seen the last of Brett Favre, Doubtful! The Ol’ Wrangler didn’t look ‘real comfortable’ on the Minnesota sidelines after injuring his throwing shoulder in the first series against Buffalo last Sunday, as he watched Tarvaris Jackson guide the Vikings to their highest scoring output (38) of the season. While interim HC Leslie Frazier says there will be no QB controversy when Favre declares himself eligible to play (after the week-long practices, of course), we have a feeling that Frazier would like to see what he has in Jackson.
We know that the 5-7 Vikings are not in the playoff hunt, but you can bet that the Giants would like to squash any of that talk. Minnesota has won the last four meetings in the series and handed the Giants season-ending losses each of the last two regular seasons, including a 44-7 embarrassment last year that denied the G-Men a winning campaign. Despite the recent run, don’t forget that the Purple People Eaters are 0-6 SU and ATS in this matchup when entering off back-to-back straight up wins.
It would also be wise to remember that the Vikings are 0-5 ATS before facing the Bears when taking on a foe off a straight up win and that Tom Coughlin’s road warriors are an 'INCREDIBLE' 13-2 SU and 14-1 ATS away off a straight up win versus a non-divisional opponents off a non-division encounter. While it appears that the Vikings are breathing fresh air under Frazier, a word of caution: both of the Vikings victories under his lead have been against teams (Washington, Buffalo) that are 7-17 SU this season.
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• AMAZING SITUATIONAL TRENDS
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Let’s hope Philadelphia QB Michael Vick is truly a changed man off the field because he’s one dynamic performer on the gridiron, and we’d like to see what he can accomplish should he remain injury-free for the next few seasons. That’s a really big IF! Because of Vick’s penchant for scrambling and running, Eagles HC Andy Reid is concerned that officials are letting defenders take shots at him that would ordinarily draw penalty flags against less mobile QB's. In fact, the Eagles are concerned enough that they filed a formal protest with the league last Friday. But right now the majority of talk swirling around this game centers on Dallas and the resurgent Cowboys.
Former offensive coordinator and new interim head coach Jason Garrett took over for Wade Phillips and is making a strong case to be named permanent head coach, leading Dallas to a 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS record over the past four weekends. Unfortunately, Garrett enters tonight’s NFC East grudge match with Philly a few bodies short, the biggest loss being star WR Dez Bryant who was lost for the remainder of the season after suffering a broken ankle returning a kickoff in last Sunday’s game at Indianapolis.
The Eagles rebounded nicely from a tough loss at Chicago with a 34-24 come from behind win over Houston on Thursday evening, so Philly arrives at Jerry Jones’ Palace after a few extra days of healing rest. Revenge is also a word likely to be mentioned before kickoff as the Green Birds were blanked 24-0 here in last year’s season finale. If you’re one of our weekly readers, you know of our unabashed admiration for the Eagles’ Andy Reid, so it’s no surprise that he shows up 15-5 ATS as a visitor, vs. NFC East opponents, including an 'AMAZING' 13-1 ATS in his career when these foes own a win percentage of less than .666 on the season.
Additional ammunition is provided by Philly’s 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS mark off a Thursday affair, including 4-0 SU and ATS off a win of six or more points. Texas football fans should also take note: the Eagles are 10-2 ATS in Game Thirteen of the season while the Cowboys are 0-6 ATS in their last six Game Thirteen situations.
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Stan Knows Football and Basketball! Check out the huge winning run “The Man is enjoying and prepare to get all of his football and basketball selections with a discounted monthly or seasonal package.” Do it now and Save Big! - Call me toll-free in the office @ 1-800-351-4640 - You'll be real glad you did" -Stan!
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*** OAKLAND @ JACKSONVILLE (-4.5, O/U 43) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: Two of the league’s most surprising teams meet up here. The Jaguars are in the driver’s seat in the AFC South, thanks to strong play from David Garrard and a rejuvenated Maurice Jones-Drew in the running game. Their defense has also remained tough despite the loss of their best player, DE Aaron Kampman. The Raiders have used a strong pass defense and great play-calling to go 6-6. They haven’t fared well on the road though, going 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Jacksonville is 1-0 ATS (1-0 SU) vs. Oakland (1-0 ATS, 1-0 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--JACKSONVILLE is 13-2 ATS at home off a road win against a division rival since 1992.
--JACKSONVILLE is 6-19 ATS after outgaining opp by 150+ yards in last game since 1992.
--JACKSONVILLE is 1-8 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the L3 seasons.
--OAKLAND is 8-26 ATS away vs. defenses allowing a cmp. pct. of 61% or worse since 1992.
--OAKLAND is 1-9 ATS vs. teams allowing >=350 yards/game over the L3 seasons.
--OAKLAND is 20-40 ATS in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Any team against the total - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games against opponent after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games.
(67-24 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.6%, +40.6 units. Rating = 3*)
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*** CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH (-9, O/U 40.5) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Bengals have nothing to play for except pride when they visit their division rivals. Their own stupidity cost them a chance to beat the Saints a week ago (getting beat by a “draw ‘em offsides” play). They swept the Steelers last year but have dropped six of eight SU and ATS against Pittsburgh overall. In Week 9, they trailed by 20 in the second half before a comeback fell just short despite the efforts of Terrell Owens (10 catches, 141 yards, 2 TDs). Series History – Last 5 seasons: Pittsburgh is 8-4 ATS (8-4 SU) vs. Cincinnati (2-3 ATS, 2-3 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--PITTSBURGH is 76-53 OVER after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game since 1992.
--PITTSBURGH is 54-29 OVER at home in games played on a grass field since 1992.
--PITTSBURGH is 8-1 OVER off a division game over the L2 seasons.
--CINCINNATI is 0-7 ATS vs. teams who give up 17 or less points/game over the L3 seasons.
--CINCINNATI is 10-23 ATS against conference opponents over the L3 seasons.
--CINCINNATI is 20-6 OVER after 6 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points - after 7 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins.
(22-5 since 1983.) (81.5%, +16.5 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** NEW ENGLAND (-3, O/U 40.5) @ CHICAGO ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Bears will get their biggest test of the season against the Patriots. They’ve caught some breaks the past couple of weeks, playing against a speedy Eagles offense on a torn up Soldier Field turf and squeaking past a Lions team starting their thirdstring quarterback. Since 2005, the Patriots are 20-2 SU (though only 12-10 ATS) against NFC opponents during the regular season. They have the kind of diverse offensive attack that the Bears defense hasn’t often seen in recent years. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Chicago is 1-0 ATS (0-1 SU) vs. New England (0-0 ATS, 0-0 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--CHICAGO is 8-20 ATS at home off 2 or more consecutive overs since 1992.
--CHICAGO is 12-3 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive losses ATS over the L2 seasons.
--CHICAGO is 11-3 UNDER vs. teams allowing <= 7.5 yards per return over the L3 seasons.
--N.E. is 34-16 ATS away vs. teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better since 1992.
--N.E. is 57-35 ATS vs. teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better since 1992.
--N.E. is 58-36 ATS vs. teams w/ winning record in second half of the season since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play On - Road favorites of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line - off a blowout win by 28 points or more over a division rival, with a winning record on the season.
(24-5 since 1983.) (82.8%, +18.5 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** CLEVELAND @ BUFFALO (-1, O/U 41) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Browns have dominated the Erie region when these teams have met in the past. The Bills and Browns have met each of the past three seasons (including the past two years at Buffalo), with Cleveland winning SU and ATS in all three match-ups. The Browns seem to play tight games every week, while Buffalo’s new pass-first offense has led to some big point swings in both directions. The difference could be Peyton Hillis, who could overpower a weak Buffalo run defense, and the potential return of Colt McCoy. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Buffalo is 0-3 ATS (0-3 SU) vs. Cleveland (0-2 ATS, 0-2 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--BUFFALO is 31-52 ATS after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.
--BUFFALO is 72-42 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
--BUFFALO is 12-3 UNDER after allowing 24+ points in the first half last game since 1992.
--CLEVELAND is 6-0 ATS in games played on turf over the L3 seasons.
--CLEVELAND is 10-3 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins ATS over the L2 seasons.
--Eric Mangini is 14-4 ATS away in the second half of the season.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Any team where the first half total is between 18 and 21 - after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game against opponent after a loss by 14 or more points.
(36-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.6%, +23.9 units. Rating = 3*)
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*** NY GIANTS (-3, O/U 43) @ MINNESOTA ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The big question is who will be under center for the Vikings. Brett Favre missed most of Minnesota’s Week 13 win with a shoulder injury. Tavaris Jackson was up-and-down in replacing him, completing15 of 22 passes but also getting intercepted three times. The Giants defense has been dominant over the past six quarters and could rattle Jackson. Eli Manning could also be getting at least one of his top two receivers Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith back, and should benefit from escaping the winds of the Meadowlands. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Minnesota is 3-1 ATS (4-0 SU) vs. NY Giants (1-1 ATS, 2-0 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--MINNESOTA is 11-2 UNDER at home off a home win by 10 points or more since 1992.
--MINNESOTA is 7-0 UNDER at home after leading last game by 21+ pts at half since 1992.
--MINNESOTA is 24-9 OVER vs. teams who force 2.5+ TO/game on the season since 1992.
--NY GIANTS are 9-0 OVER vs. teams allowing >= 24 yards per return over the L3 seasons.
--NY GIANTS are 36-14 UNDER away after failing to cover in 2 of last 3 games since 1992.
--NY GIANTS are 8-0 OVER after leading last game by 14+ points at half over L3 seasons.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Against - Road favorites vs. the 1rst half line - after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games, in December games.
(28-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.0%, +20.3 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** GREEN BAY (-6.5, O/U 47) @ DETROIT ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: Detroit will be looking to snap yet another long losing streak: The Lions haven’t beaten Green Bay since the 2005 season-opener, losing 10 straight to the Pack (going 3-7 ATS in that span). They did stay close in Lambeau earlier this year, but a blowout is certainly a possibility with the Packers’ passing game playing much better since that last meeting. Detroit has one the league’s weakest secondaries and not much of a running game to control the clock. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Detroit is 4-7 ATS (1-10 SU) vs. Green Bay (1-4 ATS, 1-4 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--DETROIT is 6-0 OVER at home in dome games this season.
--DETROIT is 30-13 OVER revenging a close loss by 7 points or less to opponent since 1992.
--DETROIT is 34-12 OVER at home vs. teams w/ comp pct. of 61% or better since 1992.
--GREEN BAY is 7-0 ATS vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yds/game over L2 seasons.
--GREEN BAY is 10-2 ATS vs. teams with a losing record over the L2 seasons.
--GREEN BAY is 13-4 ATS after gaining 400+ total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Home teams against the 1rst half total - poor rushing team (70-95 RY/G) against an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/G) after 8+ games.
(60-20 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.0%, +38 units. Rating = 3*)
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*** ATLANTA (-7, O/U 42.5) @ CAROLINA ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Falcons continue to make things interesting, scoring another fourth-quarter comeback win last week. They have every advantage over the Panthers in this one, especially with their power running game against a Carolina defense that can’t stop the run. The Falcons are 4-2 SU and ATS on the road, and one of those ATS losses was in Pittsburgh on an overtime touchdown. Carolina has lost their past two home games by a combined score of 71-16 as they play out the string in a nightmare season. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Carolina is 6-4 ATS (6-4 SU) vs. Atlanta (3-2 ATS, 3-2 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--CAROLINA is 7-0 ATS at home off 4 or more consecutive overs since 1992.
--CAROLINA is 8-1 ATS off 4 or more consecutive overs since 1992.
--CAROLINA is 25-9 OVER after failing to cover in 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992.
--ATLANTA is 9-25 ATS vs. teams allowing cmp. % of 61% or worse in 2nd half of year since 1992.
--ATLANTA is 7-20 ATS vs. teams allowing >=130 rush yd/gm in 2nd half of year since 1992.
--ATLANTA is 9-1 OVER away against conference opponents over the L2 seasons.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Road teams vs. the 1rst half total - off a close wins by 7 points or less over a division rival, in the last 4 weeks of the regular season.
(25-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (86.2%, +20.6 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** TAMPA BAY (-2, O/U 41) @ WASHINGTON ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Bucs look to be the next team to steamroll the Redskins. Washington couldn’t contain the Giants’ power running game last week. Tampa will give them a heavy dose of their super-sized back LeGarrette Blount, who’s a lot like a young Brandon Jacobs. Tampa has covered in their past eight road games (6-2 SU in that span). Washington may get to deploy their own big back, Ryan Torain, who’s been out since Week 8 with a hamstring injury. They seem unlikely to succeed in throwing it against Tampa’s strong CBs. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Washington is 1-3 ATS (2-3 SU) vs. Tampa Bay (0-1 ATS, 1-0 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--WASH is 0-7 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game over the L3 seasons.
--WASH is 9-25 ATS at home after a game with a TO margin of -2 or worse since 1992.
--WASH is 8-1 UNDER after scoring 7 pts or less in 1st half in 2 straight games over L3 years.
--TAMPA BAY is 6-0 ATS in road lined games this season.
--TAMPA BAY is 30-13 UNDER against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
--TAMPA BAY is 64-40 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Under - Any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points - in a game involving two average offensive teams (18-23 PPG) after 8 or more games, after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games.
(22-4 over the last 10 seasons.) (84.6%, +17.6 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** ST LOUIS @ NEW ORLEANS (-9, O/U 47) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: It’s a key game for both teams’ postseason plans. Sam Bradford has played like a veteran all year, but he hasn’t played in noise like they’ll have in the Superdome, or against a defense as aggressive as the Saints’. The Rams have won three straight ATS on the road and four of five ATS on the year. The Saints had been shaky at home early this year but scored impressive victories in their past two games (20-10 over Pittsburgh, 34-19 over Seattle). Series History – Last 5 seasons: New Orleans is 0-3 ATS (1-2 SU) vs. ST Louis (0-1 ATS, 0-1 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--NEW ORLEANS is 7-21 ATS at home after winning 4 or 5 out of last 6 games since 1992.
--NEW ORLEANS is 10-26 ATS at home in last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
--NEW ORLEANS is 13-29 ATS at home in December games since 1992.
--ST LOUIS is 5-19 ATS away after allowing 150 or less pass yards in last game since 1992.
--ST LOUIS is 1-11 ATS away vs. teams outscoring opp by 6+ PPG on the season since 1992.
--ST LOUIS is 17-37 ATS away off 1 or more consecutive unders since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play On - Home favorites of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line - off 3 or more consecutive overs, a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential).
(25-6 since 1983.) (80.6%, +18.4 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO (-4.5, O/U 41) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: Both teams are looking to hold on to their NFC West title hopes. The Seahawks simply dismantled the Niners in the season-opener in Seattle, as San Francisco struggled just to get their plays called. The Niners haven’t been as disastrously bad on offense since though, and their defense has been solid this year. Seattle is traditionally awful on the road, going 3-11 SU and ATS away from home over the past two seasons, including a 23-10 loss in San Fran in Week 2 of 2009. Series History – Last 5 seasons: San Francisco is 5-6 ATS (4-7 SU) vs. Seattle (3-2 ATS, 2-3 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--SAN FRAN is 9-1 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses ATS over the L2 seasons.
--SAN FRAN is 11-23 ATS at home after a 2 game road trip since 1992.
--SAN FRAN is 10-2 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive losses ATS over the L2 seasons.
--SEATTLE is 0-9 ATS off a home win over the L3 seasons.
--SEATTLE is 0-9 ATS away after 1 or more consecutive wins over the L3 seasons.
--SEATTLE is 1-9 ATS away after playing a game at home over the L2 seasons.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Against - Road underdogs of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% in the second half of the season.
(28-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (82.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** MIAMI @ NY JETS (-5, O/U 40) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Jets are looking for the series sweep of the Dolphins. In their first meeting, Mark Sanchez
was efficient (and without a suspended Santonio Holmes) and the Jets jumped out early before hanging on in a game where they were out-gained and penalized for more yards. Miami continues to find ways to lose close games, but they’ve been much better on the road this year, going 5-1 SU and ATS away from home this season. Series History – Last 5 seasons: NY Jets is 7-3 ATS (7-4 SU) vs. Miami (2-2 ATS, 3-2 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--NY JETS are 48-26 UNDER in December games since 1992.
--NY JETS are 72-40 under the 1H total at home after first month of the season since 1992.
--NY JETS are 28-10 under the 1H total at home in December games since 1992.
--MIAMI is 13-3 ATS away after the first month of the season over the L3 seasons.
--MIAMI is 28-9 UNDER revenging an upset loss against opponent as a favorite since 1992.
--MIAMI is 22-8 UNDER vs. teams outscoring opp by 6+ PPG in 2nd half of year since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Against - Any team vs the 1rst half line - average rushing team (95-125 RY/game) against a team with a good rushing defense (70-95 RY/game), after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games.
(23-4 over the last 10 seasons.) (85.2%, +18.6 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** DENVER (-4.5, O/U 42) @ ARIZONA ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: Both of these teams are struggling desperately down the stretch. The desert was once one of the more difficult places to play in the NFL, but the Cards have dropped four in a row SU and ATS at home, getting outscored 82-30 in their past three home games. They are essentially hopeless in the passing game, with Derek Anderson and Max Hall two of the league’s worst quarterbacks to this point. Despite an explosive offense, Denver has lost four in a row SU on the road (1-3 ATS) while failing to score more than 17 points in any of them. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Arizona is 0-1 ATS (0-1 SU) vs. Denver (0-1 ATS, 0-1 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--ARIZONA is 30-10 ATS at home after 2 consec. games w/ TO margin of -1 or worse since 1992.
--ARIZONA is 11-2 ATS at home vs. teams averaging 235+ pass yds/gm in year’s 2nd half since 1992.
--ARIZONA is 49-30 OVER in dome games since 1992.
--DENVER is 2-14 ATS vs. teams with a losing record over the L3 seasons.
--DENVER is 31-13 OVER after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992.
--DENVER is 10-1 ATS away after failing to cover in 6 or 7 out of last 8 games since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play On - Home teams vs. the 1rst half line - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in the last 4 weeks of the regular season.
(22-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (84.6%, +17.6 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** KANSAS CITY @ SAN DIEGO (-7, O/U 46.5) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Chargers are trying to stave off extinction. Normally unbeatable in December, Philip Rivers was off and the special teams were sloppy again in a 28-13 home loss to Oakland in Week 13. The Chiefs didn’t look sharp either, but still managed to squeak by Denver at home. K.C. beat the Chargers in a monsoon in the season opener, 21-14, thanks largely to strong special teams play. However, the Chiefs have dropped four of five away from home. Series History – Last 5 seasons: San Diego is 5-6 ATS (7-4 SU) vs. Kansas City (3-2 ATS, 4-1 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--SAN DIEGO is 3-15 ATS at home off a loss by 10+ points to a division rival since 1992.
--SAN DIEGO is 28-12 UNDER at home vs. teams scoring 24+ points/game since 1992.
--SAN DIEGO is 71-48 UNDER at home against conference opponents since 1992.
--K.C. is 6-21 ATS away after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game since 1992.
--K.C. is 1-10 ATS after gaining 175 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992.
--K.C. is 3-13 ATS away after gaining 400+ yards/game over their last 3 games since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Road teams vs. the 1rst half total - off a close wins by 7 points or less over a division rival, in the last 4 weeks of the regular season.
(25-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (86.2%, +20.6 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** PHILADELPHIA (-3.5, O/U 50.5) @ DALLAS ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Eagles have a golden opportunity to reverse their recent bad fortune against Dallas. Last year, Tony Romo’s Cowboys blew away Donovan McNabb’s Eagles in a three-game sweep. This year, the Eagles have obviously upgraded under center with Michael Vick while Dallas continues to go with back-up Jon Kitna (and rookie wide receiver Dez Bryant will be out with a broken ankle). As an added bonus, Philly has extra time to rest and prepare for this one after having played on Thursday night in Week 13. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Dallas is 6-5 ATS (7-4 SU) vs. Philadelphia (3-3 ATS, 4-2 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--DALLAS is 9-0 OVER after the first month of the season this season.
--DALLAS is 8-0 OVER in games played on turf this season.
--DALLAS is 7-0 OVER vs. teams with a comp. pct. of 61% or better this season.
--PHILLY is 28-12 ATS vs. teams allowing 235 or more passing yards/game since 1992.
--PHILLY is 17-5 ATS vs. teams allowing >=5.65 yds/play in 2nd half of season since 1992.
--PHILLY is 17-7 OVER in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the L3 seasons.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Any team where the first half total is 25 or higher (DALLAS) - after playing their last game on the road, in December games.
(32-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (80.0%, +23.2 units. Rating = 4*)
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• HIGHEST RATED ATS SUPER SITUATIONS NFL - Display the Highest Rated Active NFL - Against the Spread Super Situations for Upcoming Games.
Situational analysis uncovers conditions and patterns where teams have consistently outperformed or underperformed their normal levels. These systems are not team specific - the principle is that teams fall into patterns regardless of personnel (i.e. good passing teams, teams seeking revenge, cold teams on a losing streak, etc.).
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4* CINCINNATI +9 - (82.8%)
4* DETROIT +6.5 - (81.1%)
3* ST LOUIS +9 - (78.9%)
--PLAY ON - Road teams (CINCINNATI) - after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers.
(24-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.8%, +18.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (16-14 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 5.2
The average score in these games was: Team 24.4, Opponent 20.7 (Average point differential = +3.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 17 (56.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (39-15).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (61-40).
--PLAY ON - Home teams (DETROIT) - after 3 or more consecutive losses, a terrible team (<=25%) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season.
(30-7 over the last 10 seasons.) (81.1%, +22.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (15-25 over the last 10 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.2
The average score in these games was: Team 21.4, Opponent 24.8 (Average point differential = -3.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 11 (29.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (16-4).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (71-42).
--PLAY ON - Road underdogs or pick (ST LOUIS) - poor passing team (5.3-5.9 PYA) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games, after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game.
(30-8 since 1983.) (78.9%, +21.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (15-24)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.6
The average score in these games was: Team 16.4, Opponent 18.6 (Average point differential = -2.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 16 (42.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (4-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (10-3).
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• HIGHEST RATED OVER/UNDER SUPER SITUATIONS NFL - Display the Highest Rated Active NFL - Over/Under Super Situations for Upcoming Games.
Situational analysis uncovers conditions and patterns where teams have consistently outperformed or underperformed their normal levels. These systems are not team specific - the principle is that teams fall into patterns regardless of personnel (i.e. good passing teams, teams seeking revenge, cold teams on a losing streak, etc.).
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4* ATLANTA/CAROLINA OVER 42.5 - (86.2%)
4* CLEVELAND/BUFFALO UNDER 42 - (84.6%)
4* GREEN BAY/DETROIT UNDER 47 - (84.4%)
4* DENVER/ARIZONA UNDER 42 - (83.3%)
3* OAKLAND/JACKSONVILLE OVER 43 - (78.6%)
--PLAY OVER - Road teams vs. the 1rst half total (ATLANTA) - off a close wins by 7 points or less over a division rival, in the last 4 weeks of the regular season.
(25-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (86.2%, +20.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 21.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 14.6, Opponent 12 (Total first half points scored = 26.6)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (42-24).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (66-56).
--PLAY UNDER - Any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (BUFFALO) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (18-23 PPG) after 8 or more games, after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games.
(22-4 over the last 10 seasons.) (84.6%, +17.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 39.1
The average score in these games was: Team 17.7, Opponent 16.1 (Total points scored = 33.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 10 (40% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (10-3).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (80-47).
--PLAY UNDER - Any team against the total (GREEN BAY) - good passing team (230-265 PY/G) against an average passing defense (185-230 PY/G) after 8+ games, after gaining 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games.
(27-5 over the last 10 seasons.) (84.4%, +21.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 45.1
The average score in these games was: Team 19.4, Opponent 17.9 (Total points scored = 37.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 16 (48.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (14-3).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (48-24).
--PLAY UNDER - Any team against the total (ARIZONA) - poor passing team (5.3-5.9 PYA) against a horrible passing defense (>=7.3 PYA) after 8+ games, after gaining 4.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game.
(25-5 since 1983.) (83.3%, +19.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 39.5
The average score in these games was: Team 16, Opponent 16 (Total points scored = 32)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 16 (59.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (1-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (1-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (3-0).
--PLAY OVER - Any team against the total (OAKLAND) - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games against opponent after covering the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games.
(33-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.6%, +23.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 42.1
The average score in these games was: Team 23.3, Opponent 22.9 (Total points scored = 46.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 19 (46.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-4).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (63-40).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (149-122).
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As always, the best way to take advantage of Stan 'The Man's Sharp Information found each and every day right here in his Stat/Systems Report is to join for a Week or Month, so that you get every single one of his plays, including all of his Late Information releases. “Do it now and Save Big, subscribe today! - Call me toll-free in the office @ 1-800-351-4640 - You'll be real glad you did" -Stan!
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• HIGHEST RATED FIRST HALF ATS SUPER SITUATIONS NFL - Display the Highest Rated Active NFL - First Half Line Super Situations for Upcoming Games.
Situational analysis uncovers conditions and patterns where teams have consistently outperformed or underperformed their normal levels. These systems are not team specific - the principle is that teams fall into patterns regardless of personnel (i.e. good passing teams, teams seeking revenge, cold teams on a losing streak, etc.).
_______________________________________________
5* ATLANTA -3.5 - (88.0%)
5* DALLAS +2 - (83.3%)
4* NEW ENGLAND -1.5 - (82.8%)
4* MINNESOTA +1.5 - (82.8%)
4* JACKSONVILLE -2 - (82.4%)
3* PITTSBURGH -5 - (79.4%)
--PLAY AGAINST - Home underdogs of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (CAROLINA) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, versus division opponents.
(22-3 since 1983.) (88.0%, +18.7 units. Rating = 5*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 14.3, Opponent 6.6 (Average first half point differential = +7.8)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (0-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (0-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (7-0).
--PLAY ON - Home underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (DALLAS) - with a good offense - averaging 5.4 or more yards/play, after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games.
(25-5 since 1983.) (83.3%, +19.5 units. Rating = 5*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 11.2, Opponent 9.4 (Average first half point differential = +1.8)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (1-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (5-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (12-2).
--PLAY ON - Favorites vs. the 1rst half line (NEW ENGLAND) - an excellent offensive team (>=27 PPG) against a good defensive team (14-18 PPG) after 8+ games, after a win by 21 or more points.
(24-5 since 1983.) (82.8%, +18.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 4.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 17.6, Opponent 6.4 (Average first half point differential = +11.2)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (5-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (9-1).
--PLAY AGAINST - Road favorites vs. the 1rst half line (NY GIANTS) - after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games, in the last 4 weeks of the regular season.
(24-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.8%, +18.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 11.6, Opponent 9.8 (Average first half point differential = +1.8)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (34-33).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (65-72).
--PLAY AGAINST - Road underdogs of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (OAKLAND) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% in the second half of the season.
(28-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (82.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 16.3, Opponent 6.5 (Average first half point differential = +9.8)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (16-4).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (56-46).
--PLAY ON - Home favorites of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (PITTSBURGH) - after beating the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season.
(27-7 since 1983.) (79.4%, +19.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 4.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 15.4, Opponent 3.8 (Average first half point differential = +11.6)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (1-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (11-4).
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WHAT PEOPLE ARE SAYING ABOUT STAT/SYSTEMS SPORTS!
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I've been a Stat/Systems Sports member for close to 3 months now and I just wanted to comment on how tremendous your service has been...Keep up the great work you all have been doing, your daily report is incredibly helpful. Continued success, ~ Mike - Greenwich, CT
I have been a subscriber for less than a month, but I am totally impressed with your Stat/Systems Report. The total amount of information is incredible. I have been focusing on your *5-Star Super Situational Systems which I have found to be exceptional on totals. I will be a subscriber as long as I am playing. ~ Fred Ravo, Baltimore, MD
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• HIGHEST RATED FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER SUPER SITUATIONS NFL - Display the Highest Rated Active NFL - First Half Line Super Situations for Upcoming Games.
Situational analysis uncovers conditions and patterns where teams have consistently outperformed or underperformed their normal levels. These systems are not team specific - the principle is that teams fall into patterns regardless of personnel (i.e. good passing teams, teams seeking revenge, cold teams on a losing streak, etc.).
_______________________________________________
5* MIAMI/NY JETS UNDER 20 - (82.8%)
4* DENVER/ARIZONA UNDER 21 - (81.2%)
3* NY GIANTS/MINNESOTA UNDER 21.5 - (77.3%)
3* OAKLAND/JACKSONVILLE UNDER 21.5 - (76.3%)
--PLAY UNDER - Any team where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (NY JETS) - team outrushing opponents by 60+ YPG against an average rushing team (+/- 30 RY/G) after 8+ games, after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games.
(24-5 since 1983.) (82.8%, +18.5 units. Rating = 5*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 19.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 10.2, Opponent 5.5 (Total first half points scored = 15.6)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (5-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (10-1).
--PLAY UNDER - Any team vs the 1rst half total (ARIZONA) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, in a game involving two terrible teams (<=25%).
(26-6 since 1983.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 20.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 6.8, Opponent 7.8 (Total first half points scored = 14.6)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (1-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (2-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (6-3).
--PLAY UNDER - Road teams where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 (NY GIANTS) - after a game where they forced 5 or more turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers.
(34-10 since 1983.) (77.3%, +23 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 22.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 8.8, Opponent 10.4 (Total first half points scored = 19.2)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (5-2).
--PLAY UNDER - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 (JACKSONVILLE) - excellent rushing team (>=150 RY/game) against a good rushing team (125-150 RY/game), after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game.
(29-9 since 1983.) (76.3%, +19.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 22.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 9.2, Opponent 9.4 (Total first half points scored = 18.6)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (10-1).
I have won $$$ 6 of 7 last weeks FADING them, including two 3 - 0 sweeps. They give all favorites, and they suck. GREAT NCAA fade as well. Only thing they do fairly well is TOTALS, which i do not play or fade.
Up $$$ On the year fading them in both sports. Follow at your own risk.......
Sorry for the chatter, but is worthwhile heads up warning......
HRC PREMIUM NCAAB ACTION-December 12th
Capper: JSM Sports (Handicappers Paradise)
Play Strengths
*****************
2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Diamond (Rated)
*****************
[814] Virginia tech |8*|Bet B|-4.5|B+3|Network N/A|1:00 pm EST
note*
This is the "NCAAB Spread System" (3 game chase)
NCAAB Spread LOSSES- 0
A. 12 wins
B. 2 wins
C. 2 wins
Capper: JSM Sports (Handicappers Paradise)
Play Strengths
*****************
2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Diamond (Rated)
*****************
[814] Virginia tech |8*|Bet B|-4.5|B+3|Network N/A|1:00 pm EST
note*
This is the "NCAAB Spread System" (3 game chase)
NCAAB Spread LOSSES- 0
A. 12 wins
B. 2 wins
C. 2 wins
HRC PREMIUM NHL ACTION-December 12th
Capper: JSM Sports (Handicappers Paradise)
Play Strengths
*****************
2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Diamond (Rated)
*****************
[51] Washington |10*|Bet C|-125|B+0|Network N/A|7:05 pm EST
note*
This is the "NHL Tops System" (3 game chase)
NHL Tops LOSSES- 0
A. 4 wins
B.
C.
Capper: JSM Sports (Handicappers Paradise)
Play Strengths
*****************
2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Diamond (Rated)
*****************
[51] Washington |10*|Bet C|-125|B+0|Network N/A|7:05 pm EST
note*
This is the "NHL Tops System" (3 game chase)
NHL Tops LOSSES- 0
A. 4 wins
B.
C.
