CHUCK O'BRIEN
Sunday's 40 Dime NFL winner ...
40 DIME – Chicago Bears
The play here is on the Bears as a home underdog in an intercoaference clash with New England. As I go live with this selection, Chicago is a solid three-point pup acrhoss the board. Money has been coming in on the Bears the last two days, so we’re now seeing Chicago laying -120 at +3. Hopefully you have multople wagering options that allow you to take advantage of the best value available on this game.
Bears
BREAKDOWN: I failed to recognize the trap Vegas laid down in Thursday’s Colts-Titans game, but I’m not about to get fooled again. Much as the entire betting world jumped on the Colts’ bandwagon Thursday (in what was mostly a play against Tennessee) and got flattened, everyone is loading up New England today. Why? Because the Patriots have won four in a row, including Monday’s 45-3 destruction of the Jets (which followed impressive victories over two other playoff contending teams – Pittsburgh and Indianapolis – and a 21-point Thanksgiving Day road rout of the Lions). And the Patriots’ 10-2 record is tied with Atlanta for tops in the league.
Hey, I’m the first to admit I’ve underestimated New England at times this season (including Monday night), but I’m telling you this is the ultimate flat spot for a bunch of reasons. First, do you realize that New England has yet to play consecutive home games this year? That means they’ve been on a plane every single week this season, and this marks their fifth road game in the last eight weeks. Going back to Oct. 24, the Pats’ itinerary has been as follows: Fly from New England to San Diego back to New England to Cleveland to Pittsburgh back to New England to Detroit back to New England and now to Chicago. That is just brutal. … While the Pats hit the road for the fifth time in eight weeks, Chicago is playing at home for the fifth time in eight weeks. And while everyone is going ga-ga over New England’s four-game winning streak, nobody seems to care that Chicago has won five in a row, including dominating home victories over the Vikings (27-13) and Eagles (31-26, and the Bears led 31-14) sandwiched around three road wins (Buffalo, Miami, Detroit).
Yes, Tom Brady (17 TDs, 0 INTs last seven games) and the Patriots have been a machine offensively lately (39, 31, 45, 45 points last four weeks). But the Bears have allowed more than 23 points just once all year (the 26 they gave up to Mike Vick and Philadelphia, 16 of which were scored in garbage time). And after last week’s 24-20 win at Detroit, Chicago has held 10 of 12 opponents to 20 points or less. That includes 17 points to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers; 20 points to Tony Romo and the Cowboys (road); 17 points to Eli Manning and the Giants (road); and 13 points to Brett Favre and the Vikings. … At the same time, don’t be fooled by New England’s defensive effort against Mark Sanchez and the Jets last week. Prior to that, the Patriots had given up 24, 28, 26 and 34 points; they’re allowing 391 total yards per game (only the Redskins at 397 are worse); they’re allowing 277 passing ypg (only the Texans at 287 are worse); opposing QBs are completing 67.1 percent of their passes (only Dallas at 67.8 is worse); they have the worst third-down defense in the league; and prior to picking off Sanchez three times on Monday, New England had forced just seven INTs all season.
The Patriots are on a 6-2-1 ATS roll, including consecutive covers the last two weeks, but they haven’t cashed in three straight games this season. They’ve also covered just once in their last five when favored by a field goal or less, and they’re 0-3-1 ATS in their last four following a Monday night game. … Chicago comes in on ATS runs of 3-1-1 overall, 6-1 as an underdog, 5-0 as a short underdog (three points or less) and 7-3 as a home pup. And dispelling the notion that the Bears have taken advantage of a weak schedule, they’re 4-0 ATS in their last four against winning teams. Also, even though these teams meet very infrequently, the host has cashed in each of the last four battles (three outright wins).
Simply put, the Bears have been proving their doubters wrong all season and have been playing the disrespect card to the hilt. They’ll rally around each other again and not only get the cover, but the outright upset of the Pats, who are ripe for the picking.