Larry Ness
8* Jacksonville -3.5
After two straight games where their defense allowed 33 and 35 points respectively, the Raiders caught "lightning in a bottle" last week and buried the Chargers in San Diego, 28-13. However, after that startling performance that brought Oakland to an even 6-6 record, the Raiders must endure a tough challenge in having to travel to the East Coast to play in a 1:00 PM early game. Oakland has lost four of its six games on the road with its defense allowing 396 YPG along with 27 PPG over the last three games. Oakland must now play a team which has quietly become one of the hottest teams in the league. Jacksonville returns home after two straight games on the road, culminating in a 17-6 win against the Titans. The Jags have now put together FOUR wins over their last five games to climb into first place in the AFC South with a 7-5 record. Jack Del Rio's club is getting it done in the trenches by running the football and stopping the opponents' rushing attack. Maurice Jones-Drew has rushed for over 100 yards in each of the last five games, leading an offensive unit that is 2nd in the NFL by averaging 150.8 rushing YPG on the ground (4.6 YPC) Jacksonville is gaining over 200 YPG rushing the football in its last three games and the Jags should be able to continue to establish a strong ground game against a Raiders defense that is 23rd in the NFL by allowing 124.3 rushing YPG (4.4 YPC). Oakland will also want to get its running game going as well, as the Raiders are 3rd in the NFL with their 149 rushing YPG average. However, the Jaguars run defense has gotten better as the season has moved on. Last week, Chris Johnson and the Titans' rushing game managed only 57 yards on the ground. Over their last three games, the Jags have held opponents to only 93.3 rushing YPG. The Raiders have been an inconsistent football team this season. Off their big win over San Diego last week, the difficult travel and kickoff time for West Coast teams will likely lay the seeds for a poor Oakland outing against a surging Jacksonville team.
8* Washington +3
Washington has now lost FOUR of its last five games, after falling to NFC East division rival the New York Giants 31-7 last Sunday. Despite that score, the Redskins were outgained in total yardage by only 10 yards. SIX turnovers made the difference in this game, including six Washington fumbles that resulted in four recoveries for the Giants. That is unlikely to repeat itself this week against Tampa Bay. The Redskins will benefit with the likely return of their top RB, Ryan Torain, who is listed as probable for this game, fighting off his knee injury. Torain is leading Washington with his 4.3 YPC. His return will help the Redskins exploit a suspect Buccaneers run defense that is 26th in the NFL by allowing 128.5 YPG (also 4.6 YPC) Torain's ability to run the football will take some pressure off QB Donovan McNabb and it should help open up Washington's passing offense that ranks 9th in the NFL by gaining 243.8 YPG. While Torain will be joining the active roster again this week, the Redskins will be without defensive lineman Albert Haynesworth for the rest of the season after Mike Shanahan suspended him for the rest of the season for conduct detrimental to the team. Frankly, I suspect this move will help the team grow closer together. Haynesworth had "one rogue" (ala Sarah Palin) regarding following coaching instructions on the field and the results were clearly not working. Shanahan's decision to finally make a stand should help the cohesiveness of the defense. Washington's defense cannot get any worse, as it ranks dead-last in the NFL by allowing 397.3 YPG. However, Washington has a nice opportunity for an improved effort against a Tampa Bay offense that ranks 23rd in the NFL in both yardage (319.8 YPG) and scoring (20.2 PPG). Also note that the Bucs could be without one of their key weapons in rookie wide receiver Mike Williams, who remains listed as questionable with knee injury. It's been a well-documented stat that the Bucs are winless vs winning opponents this year (0-5) while going a perfect 7-0 vs losing ones. While the 5-7 Redskins fall into that "losing" category, the Bucs have been installed as a road favorite in this game, for the first time all season. This has not been a favorable proposition for this franchise in its recent history, as Tampa Bay has only covered THREE times in the last 16occasions where the Bucs have been laying the points away from home. I'm fairly confident that McNabb and Shanahan will "get the job" in this spot, as I expect the Bucs to 'fold' down the stretch.
8* Tampa Bay / Washington Over 41
I'm also playing this game over. Donovan McNabb throws the most incompletions per game of any QB in the NFL, which stops the clock. Even with Torain returning, don't expect the Redskins to drastically increase its running amount of running plays, as the Tampa Bay secondary has lost DB starters in each of the last two Sundays. Meanwhile, Josh Freeman should be able to move the ball vs the sieve-like Washington defense. Go Over a very "makeable" number.
8* Las Vegas Insider New Orleans -8.5
St Louis has won two games in a row on the road after the Rams dispatched the hapless Cardinals by a 19-6 score last Sunday. However, it may be too much to ask for them to stay competitive against the defending Super Bowl Champions, in their THIRD straight game away from home. The Rams solid defense has let up on the road, allowing hosts to gain 355.5 YPG and score 23.3 PPG. They now have to face a Saints team that will happy to return to New Orleans after two straight games way from home (and three of their last four games on the road). The Saints are 'heating up' in the stretch drive of the season, having won FIVE straight after taking care of business in Cincinnati against the Bengals by a 34-30 margin. The Saints are gaining 448 YPG along with scoring 32.7 PPG over their last three games and will give this St Louis defense "all it wants!" The New Orleans offense is getting back to 100% as RB Pierre Thomas looks to return to play for the first time since he was injured in Week 3 against the Falcons. The New Orleans defense has improved this season under the second year of defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, ranking 3rd against the pass (199.2 passing YPG), 9th in total defense (307.1 YPG) and 5th in points allowed (18.9 PPG). While rookie Sam Bradford shows promise in his first year at QB for the Rams, I do not see him being able to match what Drew Brees will be able to do in the Superdome. Brees is completing 69.5 percent of his passes with 25 TDs and will easily surpass 4,000 yards passing this season for the FIFTH consecutive year! The St Louis offense ranks 25th in the NFL in both yardage (314.7 YPG) and scoring (19.3 PPG). New Orleans has an excellent opportunity to put up a big number in this one against the road weary Rams and that's EXACTLY what I expect them to do!
8* San Francisco -5
Seattle evened its record at 6-6 (and tied for first place in the NFC West with the Rams) after the team's 31-14 victory over the hapless Carolina Panthers last week. However, the Seahawks as a franchise have been terrible propositions after a win by at least two TDs. Seattle is a woeful 3-22-2 ATS in its last 27 games following a victory of at least 14 points. I could stop the analysis right here, as there is every reason to believe that this season's club is VERY likely to continue this level of inconsistent futility (or should I say consistent futility?). Despite Seattle's .500 record, this is NOT a good football team! The offense is just 30th in the league in rushing (84.8 YPG) which helps explain why the offense averages only 305.3 YPG (28th in the NFL) under the direction of first-year head coach Pete Carroll. The defense (supposedly Carroll's specialty) is 30th in the league against the pass (268.1 YPG) and 30th in total defense (389.3 YPG). The defense has been particularly vulnerable on the road, allowing 297.5 passing YPG, 398.5 total YPG and 26 PPG. Even worse, over their last three games, the Seahawks defense is allowing 426.7 YPG along with the 30 PPG. This unit will be a welcome sight for a 49ers offense that has struggled this season. Alex Smith returns to taking snaps under center after Troy Smith was benched for his ineffective play last week in San Francisco's 34-16 loss at Green Bay. The 49ers will certainly benefit in returning home after two straight games on the road. Despite its struggles that has led to their 4-8 record, the San Francisco defense has still met expectations this season, ranking 11th in the NFL by holding teams to a modest 324.6 YPG. At home, this unit has been even stingier, limiting its guests to only 289.8 YPG. The 49ers should rebound with a much better effort than the one we saw at Lambeau Field last Sunday (note: the Packers are pretty good!), as they are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing 30 or more points in their previous game. Seattle, on the other hand, has been a consistent pushover on the road, given the fact that the Seahawks have only covered TWICE in their last 14 road underdog situations! San Francisco's defense should lead the way to a win (and more importantly, a cover).