NFLCHOICE Sunday picks 12/6
NFL Bets for Sunday, December 6
Originally Updated 11/29 10:00 AM ET
# OF PLAYS = 8 (40% BANKROLL RISK)
WASHINGTON REDSKINS +10 (RISK 8.5%) >>View Live NFL Odds
This play was originally posted @ 10:30 AM ET on SUNDAY, 12/6.
Line Note: If your book shows +9.5, then buy the 1/2 point. If your book shows +10, then buy the 1/2 point. Bottom line, don't get beat buy the hook, EVER.
Were not scared of betting against the big bad Saints here today at Washington. This is too many points to be laying against an improved Redskins team on their home field. Yes, the Skins are improving. They're now a perfect 3-0 ATS against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season and have played through a brutal schedule. The last 2 weeks losing by a combined 4 points could have easily been wins than losses.
This is a situational bet for us as the Saints are caught in a tight spot. They come off a HUGE win over New England on Monday night, a game that they had circled all season. All that emotion and preparation now gets left behind as they head into cold weather country to face the #1 pass defense in the NFL.
Drew Brees is an excellent QB, hands down. However, he has struggled against cold weather teams away from home. DREW BREES IS 0-5 SU IN COLD WEATHER GAMES WHERE THE TEMPERATURE IS 45 DEGREES OR LOWER. The temperature today in Washington is currently 34 degrees and will not make it above 40. The field is going to be a cold stinging one that the Saints are not used to.
UPGRADE: The Washington Redskins will welcome All-Pro defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth back after he spent two weeks on the shelf with a sprained left ankle. This is huge in a game where the Saints have to adjust their game-plan against the best pass defense in the league. We see this one as more of a battle in the trenches, which plays into the favor of the Skins.
Bottom line, too many points here as the Redskins will burn the clock and play tough defense to keep the Saints in check. Take the points.
TENNESSEE TITANS +7 (RISK 6.5%) >>View Live NFL Odds
This play was originally posted @ 10:30 AM ET on SUNDAY, 12/6.
Line Note: If your book shows +6.5, then buy the 1/2 point. If your book shows +7, then buy the 1/2 point. Bottom line, don't get beat buy the hook, EVER.
HUGE game here for the Titans and a possible turning point in the season. The Colts have clinched the playoffs and have less to lay for in this game. Simply put, the Titans need these game more than the Colts. Jeff Fisher was embarrassed by Peyton Manning earlier this year at home. As you know, we were on the Colts huge in that game as it was a situation that couldn't be passed up. This week we get Vince Young back in gear in what could be the most exciting game of the week. You must know, VY is now 9-0 his last nine games starting for the Titans and will likely make it 10-0 in this one today. Here is why...
The Colts got away with yet another one last week with a pick 6 off Matt Schaub and it could not have come at a worse time for the Texans. Houston let them off the hook up 14 points, but we don't expect for the Titans to do the same. Chris Johnson has been shredding defenses now that VY is back in the lineup. This is due to VY's ability to do damage on his feet and through the air. It creates a 2 headed monster in the backfield that is as dangerous as any tandem in the NFL.
The Colts play a Cover 2 here and that means this could be a BIG day for Chris Johnson. The Colts secondary is minus Pro Bowl safety Bob Sanders, cornerback Marlin Jackson and cornerback Kelvin Hayden (check status). We will take CJ and VY over any secondary in the NFL right now, especially one that is gimped up as the Colts.
You may be holding your breath here with betting against the Colts. However, a quick check in the numbers shows us they are just 1-4 ATS their last 5 games. Even worse, the Colts are just 1-4 ATS at home this season. The Titans have been rolling and all the while making us some mula in the process cashing in on 4 consecutive games. The Titans are 6-1 ATS as an underdog of 3.5-9.5 points.
The TD here makes this an extremely valuable play as the Titans by all means should win outright.
DALLAS COWBOYS -1 (RISK 5%) >>View Live NFL Odds
This play was originally posted @ 10:30 AM ET on SUNDAY, 12/6.
Bottom line, the Giants are not getting it done this season as Eli Manning is hobbled with planters faciaitis and the defense is giving up big plays. In comes the red hot Cowboys and this is another recipe for disaster.
These two teams are going in different directions and this is a HUGE revenge game for Tony Romo and the Cowboys. The Giants waltzed in earlier this season to Big D and won a high scoring game where Romo was picked off 3 times in crucial points in the game. The Cowboys have been playing much better over the last month as a team and can get a nice lead in the division with a win here today.
Lay the small number as the Cowboys get a close win.
COWBOYS/GIANTS UNDER 46 (RISK 3%) >>View Live NFL Odds
This play was originally posted @ 10:30 AM ET on SUNDAY, 12/6.
These two teams played high last time out, but this is a different point in the season. This is a cold weather game and the Giants offense has not been productive as it has in year's past. We expect a strong does of the running game and time consumption as the Giants attempt to keep the Cowboys off the field. Battle of the trenches in a big divisional game means low scores. TAKE THE UNDER.
Final Score = Cowboys 23-20
HOUSTON TEXANS -1.5 (RISK 5%) >>View Live NFL Odds
This play was originally posted @ 10:30 AM ET on SUNDAY, 12/6.
Going right back with the Texans this week as they find themselves in a MUST WIN situation AGAIN. They were on their way to a BIG win last week at Indy, but celebrated too early. Not going to happen this week. The Texans are 28-10 ATS off back-to-back losses and have now lost their last 3 in a row. This is also a revenge spot for the Texans with this season's earlier loss to the Jags.
We went against the jags last week as this is they have a terrible pass defense at 26th in the league. Not good news with the high powered Texans offense coming to town with revenge. Look for the Texans to get it done this week like they should have last week. Texans by 3.
ARIZONA CARDINALS +4 (RISK 5%) >>View Live NFL Odds
This play was originally posted @ 10:30 AM ET on SUNDAY, 12/6.
Line Note: Let's wait this one out as we should get more value as the day progresses. If your book shows +3.5 at game-time, then buy the 1/2 for insurance.
The Cardinals will get back Kurt Warner this week and that means this offense gets a huge boost at the right time. The Vikings seem like a no brainer in this one, however they are coming off a divisional win over the Bears and now travel into a different time zone to face a tough Cardinals team.
This seems to be the right time for a letdown in these Vikings who have just been shredding teams all season. They have a 3 game lead in the division and now face a remaining schedule with only 1 division opponent left. Look for the Vikings to slow down a bit this week as the Cardinals need this game more. Take the points.
CHICAGO BEARS -6 FIRST HALF (RISK 3.5%) >>View Live NFL Odds
This play was originally posted @ 10:30 AM ET on SUNDAY, 12/6.
Up until last week our 1st half bets have been on. Fluke, yes it was a fluke. Last week Matt Ryan goes out in the first quarter and in comes backup Chris Redman - busted. That being said, were getting right back on the horse here as the Bears will come out firing in this game after losing 4 straight. The Rams are in the bottom rung of the league, and even though the bears have had it tough this season, their schedule is one the of the league's toughest.
We expect the Bears to come out in the first half of this game and completely handle the Rams. You have to understand, the weather is going to play a huge factor in favor of the Bears. The tops it will get in Chicago today will be 38 degrees which presents a problem for the Rams, a dome team. That's why they are 4-9 ATS when playing on a grass field the last 3 seasons.
Take the Bears first half.
CHICAGO BEARS -9.5 (RISK 3.5%) >>View Live NFL Odds
This play was originally posted @ 10:30 AM ET on SUNDAY, 12/6.
This is an additional play on the spread in this game We simply believe this is a very short number for a Bears team with home field advantage that has lost 4 consecutive games against teams in the upper echelon of the NFL. Against the bottom rung, the Bears have beaten soundly at home including a 24 point home win over the Lions and a 24 point win over the Browns. The Rams fall right into that spot and are playing their first game away from home in over a month. Throw in the fact this will be their first game of the season in cold temperatures, and this spell a recipe for disaster. Lay the points.
